Estimation of Sample Size and Power For Quantile Regression

Quantile regression (QR) was first introduced by Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett in 1978. It is robust to outliers which affect least squares estimator on a large scale in linear regression. Instead of modeling mean of the response, QR provides an alternative way to model the relationship between quantiles of the response and covariates. Therefore, QR can be widely used to solve problems in econometrics, environmental sciences and health sciences. Sample size is an important factor in the planning stage of experimental design and observational studies. In ordinary linear regression, sample size may be determined based on either precision analysis or power analysis with closed form formulas. There are also methods that calculate sample size based on precision analysis for QR like C.Jennen-Steinmetz and S.Wellek (2005). A method to estimate sample size for QR based on power analysis was proposed by Shao and Wang (2009). In this paper, a new method is proposed to calculate sample size based on power analysis under hypothesis test of covariate effects. Even though error distribution assumption is not necessary for QR analysis itself, researchers have to make assumptions of error distribution and covariate structure in the planning stage of a study to obtain a reasonable estimate of sample size. In this project, both parametric and nonparametric methods are provided to estimate error distribution. Since the method proposed can be implemented in R, user is able to choose either parametric distribution or nonparametric kernel density estimation for error distribution. User also needs to specify the covariate structure and effect size to carry out sample size and power calculation. The performance of the method proposed is further evaluated using numerical simulation. The results suggest that the sample sizes obtained from our method provide empirical powers that are closed to the nominal power level, for example, 80%.

Effects of a harmful algal bloom on the community ecology, movements and spatial distributions of fishes in a microtidal estuary

Harmful algal blooms can adversely affect fish communities, though their impacts are highly context-dependent and typically differ between fish species. Various approaches, comprising univariate and multivariate analyses and multimetric Fish Community Indices (FCI), were employed to characterise the perceived impacts of a Karlodinium veneficum bloom on the fish communities and ecological condition of the Swan Canning Estuary, Western Australia. The combined evidence suggests that a large proportion of the more mobile fish species in the offshore waters of the bloom-affected area relocated to other regions during the bloom. This was indicated by marked declines in mean species richness, catch rates and FCI scores in the bloom region but concomitant increases in these characteristics in more distal regions, and by pronounced and atypical shifts in the pattern of inter-regional similarities in fish community composition during the bloom. The lack of any significant changes among the nearshore fish communities revealed that bloom impacts were less severe there than in deeper, offshore waters. Nearshore habitats, which generally are in better ecological condition than adjacent offshore waters in this system, may provide refuges for fish during algal blooms and other perturbations, mirroring similar observations of fish avoidance responses to such stressors in estuaries worldwide.

Effects of a harmful algal bloom on the community ecology, movements and spatial distributions of fishes in a microtidal estuary

Harmful algal blooms can adversely affect fish communities, though their impacts are highly context-dependent and typically differ between fish species. Various approaches, comprising univariate and multivariate analyses and multimetric Fish Community Indices (FCI), were employed to characterise the perceived impacts of a Karlodinium veneficum bloom on the fish communities and ecological condition of the Swan Canning Estuary, Western Australia. The combined evidence suggests that a large proportion of the more mobile fish species in the offshore waters of the bloom-affected area relocated to other regions during the bloom. This was indicated by marked declines in mean species richness, catch rates and FCI scores in the bloom region but concomitant increases in these characteristics in more distal regions, and by pronounced and atypical shifts in the pattern of inter-regional similarities in fish community composition during the bloom. The lack of any significant changes among the nearshore fish communities revealed that bloom impacts were less severe there than in deeper, offshore waters. Nearshore habitats, which generally are in better ecological condition than adjacent offshore waters in this system, may provide refuges for fish during algal blooms and other perturbations, mirroring similar observations of fish avoidance responses to such stressors in estuaries worldwide.

Rotational velocities of single and binary O-type stars in the Tarantula Nebula

Rotation is a key parameter in the evolution of massive stars, affecting their evolution, chemical yields, ionizing photon budget, and final fate. We determined the projected rotational velocity, υ e sin i, of ~330 O-type objects, i.e. ~210 spectroscopic single stars and ~110 primaries in binary systems, in the Tarantula nebula or 30 Doradus (30 Dor) region. The observations were taken using VLT/FLAMES and constitute the largest homogeneous dataset of multi-epoch spectroscopy of O-type stars currently available. The most distinctive feature of the υ e sin i distributions of the presumed-single stars and primaries in 30 Dor is a low-velocity peak at around 100 km s^-1. Stellar winds are not expected to have spun-down the bulk of the stars significantly since their arrival on the main sequence and therefore the peak in the single star sample is likely to represent the outcome of the formation process. Whereas the spin distribution of presumed-single stars shows a well developed tail of stars rotating more rapidly than 300 km s^-1, the sample of primaries does not feature such a high-velocity tail. The tail of the presumed-single star distribution is attributed for the most part - and could potentially be completely due - to spun-up binary products that appear as single stars or that have merged. This would be consistent with the lack of such post-interaction products in the binary sample, that is expected to be dominated by pre-interaction systems. The peak in this distribution is broader and is shifted toward somewhat higher spin rates compared to the distribution of presumed-single stars. Systems displaying large radial velocity variations, typical for short period systems, appear mostly responsible for these differences.

The Outer Solar Systems Origins Survey. I. Design and First-quarter Discoveries

We report the discovery, tracking, and detection circumstances for 85 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) from the first 42 deg2 of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey. This ongoing r-band solar system survey uses the 0.9 deg2 field of view MegaPrime camera on the 3.6 m Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. Our orbital elements for these TNOs are precise to a fractional semimajor axis uncertainty <0.1%. We achieve this precision in just two oppositions, as compared to the normal three to five oppositions, via a dense observing cadence and innovative astrometric technique. These discoveries are free of ephemeris bias, a first for large trans-Neptunian surveys. We also provide the necessary information to enable models of TNO orbital distributions to be tested against our TNO sample. We confirm the existence of a cold "kernel" of objects within the main cold classical Kuiper Belt and infer the existence of an extension of the "stirred" cold classical Kuiper Belt to at least several au beyond the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Neptune. We find that the population model of Petit et al. remains a plausible representation of the Kuiper Belt. The full survey, to be completed in 2017, will provide an exquisitely characterized sample of important resonant TNO populations, ideal for testing models of giant planet migration during the early history of the solar system.

Creating restoration landscapes: partnerships in large-scale conservation in the UK

It is increasingly recognized that ecological restoration demands conservation action beyond the borders of existing protected areas. This requires the coordination of land uses and management over a larger area, usually with a range of partners, which presents novel institutional challenges for conservation planners. Interviews were undertaken with managers of a purposive sample of large-scale conservation areas in the UK. Interviews were open-ended and analyzed using standard qualitative methods. Results show a wide variety of organizations are involved in large-scale conservation projects, and that partnerships take time to create and demand resilience in the face of different organizational practices, staff turnover, and short-term funding. Successful partnerships with local communities depend on the establishment of trust and the availability of external funds to support conservation land uses. We conclude that there is no single institutional model for large-scale conservation: success depends on finding institutional strategies that secure long-term conservation outcomes, and ensure that conservation gains are not reversed when funding runs out, private owners change priorities, or land changes hands.

Nuclei of Nearby Active Galaxies: NIR and Sub-mm Views and Finalizing the LINC-NIRVANA Fringe and Flexure Tracking System: Flexure and Temperature Behavior

The work presented in my thesis addresses the two cornerstones of modern astronomy: Observation and Instrumentation. Part I deals with the observation of two nearby active galaxies, the Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1433 and the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 1566, both at a distance of $\sim10$ Mpc, which are part of the Nuclei of Galaxies (NUGA) sample. It is well established that every galaxy harbors a super massive black hole (SMBH) at its center. Furthermore, there seems to be a fundamental correlation between the stellar bulge and SMBH masses. Simulations show that massive feedback, e.g., powerful outflows, in Quasi Stellar Objects (QSOs) has an impact on the mutual growth of bulge and SMBH. Nearby galaxies follow this relation but accrete mass at much lower rates. This gives rise to the following questions: Which mechanisms allow feeding of nearby Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN)? Is this feeding triggered by events, e.g., star formation, nuclear spirals, outflows, on $\sim500$ pc scales around the AGN? Does feedback on these scales play a role in quenching the feeding process? Does it have an effect on the star formation close to the nucleus? To answer these questions I have carried out observations with the Spectrograph for INtegral Field Observation in the Near Infrared (SINFONI) at the Very Large Telescope (VLT) situated on Cerro Paranal in Chile. I have reduced and analyzed the recorded data, which contain spatial and spectral information in the H-band ($1.45 \mic-1.85 \mic$) and K-band ($1.95 \mic-2.45 \mic$) on the central $10\arcsec\times10\arcsec$ of the observed galaxies. Additionally, Atacama Large Millimeter/Sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) data at $350$ GHz ($\sim0.87$ mm) as well as optical high resolution Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images are used for the analysis. For NGC 1433 I deduce from comparison of the distributions of gas, dust, and intensity of highly ionized emission lines that the galaxy center lies $\sim70$ pc north-northwest of the prior estimate. A velocity gradient is observed at the new center, which I interpret as a bipolar outflow, a circum nuclear disk, or a combination of both. At least one dust and gas arm leads from a $r\sim200$ pc ring towards the nucleus and might feed the SMBH. Two bright warm H$_2$ gas spots are detected that indicate hidden star formation or a spiral arm-arm interaction. From the stellar velocity dispersion (SVD) I estimate a SMBH mass of $\sim1.74\times10^7$ \msol. For NGC 1566 I observe a nuclear gas disk of $\sim150$ pc in radius with a spiral structure. I estimate the total mass of this disk to be $\sim5.4\times10^7$ \msol. What mechanisms excite the gas in the disk is not clear. Neither can the existence of outflows be proven nor is star formation detected over the whole disk. On one side of the spiral structure I detect a star forming region with an estimated star formation rate of $\sim2.6\times10^{-3}$ \msol\ yr$^{-1}$. From broad Br$\gamma$ emission and SVD I estimate a mean SMBH mass of $\sim5.3\times10^6$ \msol\ with an Eddington ratio of $\sim2\times10^{-3}$. Part II deals with the final tests of the Fringe and Flexure Tracker (FFTS) for LBT INterferometric Camera and the NIR/Visible Adaptive iNterferometer for Astronomy (LINC-NIRVANA) at the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) in Arizona, USA, which I conducted. The FFTS is the subsystem that combines the two separate beams of the LBT and enables near-infrared interferometry with a significantly large field of view. The FFTS has a cryogenic system and an ambient temperature system which are separated by the baffle system. I redesigned this baffle to guarantee the functionality of the system after the final tests in the Cologne cryostat. The redesign did not affect any scientific performance of LINC-NIRVANA. I show in the final cooldown tests that the baffle fulfills the temperature requirement and stays $<110$ K whereas the moving stages in the ambient system stay $>273$ K, which was not given for the old baffle design. Additionally, I test the tilting flexure of the whole FFTS and show that accurate positioning of the detector and the tracking during observation can be guaranteed.

Large-Scale Controlled-Condition Experiment to Evaluate Light Weight Deflectometers for Modulus Determination and Compaction Quality Assurance of Unbound Pavement Materials

Compaction control using lightweight deflectometers (LWD) is currently being evaluated in several states and countries and fully implemented for pavement construction quality assurance (QA) by a few. Broader implementation has been hampered by the lack of a widely recognized standard for interpreting the load and deflection data obtained during construction QA testing. More specifically, reliable and practical procedures are required for relating these measurements to the fundamental material property—modulus—used in pavement design. This study presents a unique set of data and analyses for three different LWDs on a large-scale controlled-condition experiment. Three 4.5x4.5 m2 test pits were designed and constructed at target moisture and density conditions simulating acceptable and unacceptable construction quality. LWD testing was performed on the constructed layers along with static plate loading testing, conventional nuclear gauge moisture-density testing, and non-nuclear gravimetric and volumetric water content measurements. Additional material was collected for routine and exploratory tests in the laboratory. These included grain size distributions, soil classification, moisture-density relations, resilient modulus testing at optimum and field conditions, and an advanced experiment of LWD testing on top of the Proctor compaction mold. This unique large-scale controlled-condition experiment provides an excellent high quality resource of data that can be used by future researchers to find a rigorous, theoretically sound, and straightforward technique for standardizing LWD determination of modulus and construction QA for unbound pavement materials.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.