Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Irish neo-paganism: worldview, ritual and identity

Neo-paganism is a vibrant, dynamic global movement, which has had a significant cultural impact. Neo-paganism is an umbrella term for a wide range of spiritual practices, often described as nature- or earth-based spirituality. There are different “paths” or spiritual traditions within this movement, of which Druidry, Wicca and other forms of Pagan Witchcraft are included in this research. The present work is an ethnographic study of the worldview and ritual practices of the Irish neo-pagan community. It is an enquiry into (a) what characterises the neo-pagan worldview and (b) how this worldview is expressed through ritual behaviour. In order to collect data, the methodology of participant observation and ethnographic interviewing was employed. The thesis comprises a collection of “insider” accounts of what it is like to be a neo-pagan in Ireland and analysis of these narratives, which gives insight into different aspects of neopagan culture. In the discussion, the use of mythology is examined in regard to how mythic narrative is connected to identity formation. Irish cultural symbols are observed as resources utilised in the construction of the movement’s overall character. The interconnectedness of the natural landscape, the numinous and mythology gives rise to creative expression through various forms of neo-pagan artworks, which are discussed herein. The identifying features and key issues of Irish neo-pagan culture are addressed. These key issues are expressed as prominent themes and symbols of their discourse. Neo-pagan dialogue often features discussion of the relationship that this cultural group has with the Irish landscape, history, and indigenous and popular Irish religion. Some of the specific aspects of neo-pagan culture examined are magical worldview, the notion of holism, different types of ritual practices (festivals, life cycle rituals, healing), and material culture. The thesis presents an in-depth analysis of neopagan cultural expressions and their significance as cultural processes

Non-product related environmental process and production methods (NPR-PPMs): a view from international trade law and international environmental governance

The primary aim of this thesis is to analyse legal and governance issues in the use of Environmental NPR-PPMs, particularly those aiming to promote sustainable practices or to protect natural resources. NPR-PPMs have traditionally been thought of as being incompatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, the issue remains untouched by WTO adjudicatory bodies. One can suggest that WTO adjudicatory bodies may want to leave this issue to the Members, but the analysis of the case law also seems to indicate that the question of legality of NPR-PPMs has not been brought ‘as such’ in dispute settlement. This thesis advances the argument that despite the fact that the legal status of NPR-PPMs remains unsettled, during the last decades adjudicatory bodies have been scrutinising environmental measures based on NPR-PPMs just as another expression of the regulatory autonomy of the Members. Though NPR-PPMs are regulatory choices associated with a wide range of environmental concerns, trade disputes giving rise to questions related to the legality of process-based measures have been mainly associated with the protection of marine wildlife (i.e., fishing techniques threatening or affecting animal species). This thesis argues that environmental objectives articulated as NPR-PPMs can indeed qualify as legitimate objectives both under the GATT and the TBT Agreement. However, an important challenge for the their compatibility with WTO law relate to aspects associated with arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination. In the assessment of discrimination procedural issues play an important role. This thesis also elucidates other important dimensions to the issue from the perspective of global governance. One of the arguments advanced in this thesis is that a comprehensive analysis of environmental NPR-PPMs should consider not only their role in what is regarded as trade barriers (governmental and market-driven), but also their significance in global objectives such as the transition towards a green economy and sustainable patterns of consumption and production.

Prostate cancer treatment as an embodied rite of passage: impotence and incontinence as challenges to status reversal and reintegration

Introduction and Rationale: A central argument in the thesis is that performative acts of control, sexual potency and spontaneity are central to the continuous construction of embodied masculine identities. The acts of control, and particularly issues of spontaneity, are central to understandings and addressing the difficulties men face at varying levels of embodied identity. Using Watson’s (2000) ‘Male body schema’, I will explore the challenges and opportunities men face when negotiating normative, pragmatic, and experiential embodiment. I will later then explore the importance of these levels of embodiment to achieving visceral embodiment; or what I would define as a renewed unconscious satisfaction and ability to achieve and maintain normative, pragmatic and experiential forms of embodiment. Purpose and Objectives: Using the concept of liminality, and permanent liminality, the thesis explores how we can interpret and understand men’s experience of prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, and their struggle to regain power and control in the context of diagnosis, and also the side effects to treatment. The strategies men adopt in seeking out personalised medical programmes of treatment with their doctors are explored in detail. The power and control that can be exercised over medical professionals and treatment options is demonstrated. Method: Collecting responses online from prostate specific discussion boards via gatekeepers, and from interviews on the ‘health talk’ online database, three intersecting conceptual categories - liminality, masculinity and the body/embodiment - are combined in this research. Liminality and ‘time’ are directly linked to notions of ‘success’ and ‘outcome’ during the treatment process, and mark distinct points at which men, and their families, expect measures or limits to have been reached. Exploring liminality within the context of Turner’s ‘rites of passage’, I explore the difficulty men face in concluding the third stage of the rites; reintegration. Results: Prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, impotence and incontinence, in particular, have profound implications for the continuous construction of embodied masculine identities, and thus identity in general, making the construction of hegemonic ideals in the context of a highly ‘performative’ society highly troublesome. The issue of ‘spontaneity’ in the construction of various forms of embodied identities is of particular concern for men who contributed to this study.

Microbial inactivation of Pseudomonas putida and Pichia pastoris using gene silencing.

Antisense deoxyoligonucleotide (ASO) gene silencing was investigated as a potential disinfection tool for industrial and drinking water treatment application. ASOs bind with their reverse complementary mRNA transcripts thereby blocking protein translation. While ASO silencing has mainly been studied in medicine, it may be useful for modulating gene expression and inactivating microorganisms in environmental applications. In this proof of concept work, gene targets were sh ble (zeocin resistance) and todE (catechol-2,3-dioxygenase) in Pichia pastoris and npt (kanamycin resistance) in Pseudomonas putida. A maximum 0.5-fold decrease in P. pastoris cell numbers was obtained following a 120 min incubation with single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) concentrations ranging from 0.2 to 200 nM as compared to the no ssDNA control. In P. putida, a maximum 5.2-fold decrease was obtained after 90 min with 400 nM ssDNA. While the silencing efficiencies varied for the 25 targets tested, these results suggest that protein activity as well as microbial growth can be altered using ASO gene silencing-based tools. If successful, this technology has the potential to eliminate some of the environmental and health issues associated with the use of strong chemical biocides. However, prior to its dissemination, more research is needed to increase silencing efficiency and develop effective delivery methods.

Prenatal protease inhibitor use and risk of preterm birth among HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting results have been reported among studies of protease inhibitor (PI) use during pregnancy and preterm birth. Uncontrolled confounding by indication may explain some of the differences among studies. METHODS: In total, 777 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pregnant women in a prospective cohort who were not receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment at conception were studied. Births <37 weeks gestation were reviewed, and deliveries due to spontaneous labor and/or rupture of membranes were identified. Risk of preterm birth and low birth weight (<2500 g) were evaluated by using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the study population, 558 (72%) received combination ARV with PI during pregnancy, and a total of 130 preterm births were observed. In adjusted analyses, combination ARV with PI was not significantly associated with spontaneous preterm birth, compared to ARV without PI (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-2.12). Sensitivity analyses that included women who received ARV prior to pregnancy also did not identify a significant association (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.84-2.16). Low birth weight results were similar. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of an association between use of combination ARV with PI during pregnancy and preterm birth was found. Our study supports current guidelines that promote consideration of combination ARV for all HIV-infected pregnant women.

Harm, hype and evidence: ELSI research and policy guidance.

There has been much investment in research on the ethical, legal and social issues (ELSI) associated with genetic and genomic research. This research should inform the development of the relevant policy. So far, much of the relevant policy - such as in the areas of patents, genetic testing and genetic discrimination - seems to be informed more by speculation of harm and anecdote than by available evidence. Although a quest for evidence cannot always be allowed to delay policy choice, it seems axiomatic to us that policy options are improved by the incorporation of evidence.

Contracting Freedom: Governance and East Indian Indenture in the British Atlantic, 1838-1917

This is a dissertation about identity and governance, and how they are mutually constituted. Between 1838 and 1917, the British brought approximately half a million East Indian laborers to the Atlantic to work on sugar plantations. The dissertation argues that contrary to previous historiographical assumptions, indentured East Indians were an amorphous mass of people drawn from various regions of British India. They were brought together not by their innate "Indian-ness" upon their arrival in the Caribbean, but by the common experience of indenture recruitment, transportation and plantation life. Ideas of innate "Indian-ness" were products of an imperial discourse that emerged from and shaped official approaches to governing East Indians in the Atlantic. Government officials and planters promoted visions of East Indians as "primitive" subjects who engaged in child marriage and wife murder. Officials mobilized ideas about gender to sustain racialized stereotypes of East Indian subjects. East Indian women were thought to be promiscuous, and East Indian men were violent and depraved (especially in response to East Indian women's promiscuity). By pointing to these stereotypes about East Indians, government officials and planters could highlight the promise of indenture as a civilizing mechanism. This dissertation links the study of governance and subject formation to complicate ideas of colonial rule as static. It uncovers how colonial processes evolved to handle the challenges posed by migrant populations.

The primary architects of indenture, Caribbean governments, the British Colonial Office, and planters hoped that East Indian indentured laborers would form a stable and easily-governed labor force. They anticipated that the presence of these laborers would undermine the demands of Afro-Creole workers for higher wages and shorter working hours. Indenture, however, was controversial among British liberals who saw it as potentially hindering the creation of a free labor market, and abolitionists who also feared that indenture was a new form of slavery. Using court records, newspapers, legislative documents, bureaucratic correspondence, memoirs, novels, and travel accounts from archives and libraries in Britain, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, this dissertation explores how indenture was envisioned and constantly re-envisioned in response to its critics. It chronicles how the struggles between the planter class and the colonial state for authority over indentured laborers affected the way that indenture functioned in the British Atlantic. In addition to focusing on indenture's official origins, this dissertation examines the actions of East Indian indentured subjects as they are recorded in the imperial archive to explore how these people experienced indenture.

Indenture contracts were central to the justification of indenture and to the creation of a pliable labor force in the Atlantic. According to English common law, only free parties could enter into contracts. Indenture contracts limited the period of indenture and affirmed that laborers would be remunerated for their labor. While the architects of indenture pointed to contracts as evidence that indenture was not slavery, contracts in reality prevented laborers from participating in the free labor market and kept the wages of indentured laborers low. Further, in late nineteenth-century Britain, contracts were civil matters. In the British Atlantic, indentured laborers who violated the terms of their contracts faced criminal trials and their associated punishments such as imprisonment and hard labor. Officials used indenture contracts to exploit the labor and limit the mobility of indentured laborers in a manner that was reminiscent of slavery but that instead established indentured laborers as subjects with limited rights. The dissertation chronicles how indenture contracts spawned a complex inter-imperial bureaucracy in British India, Britain, and the Caribbean that was responsible for the transportation and governance of East Indian indentured laborers overseas.

Global value chains and agrifood standards: challenges and possibilities for smallholders in developing countries.

The rise of private food standards has brought forth an ongoing debate about whether they work as a barrier for smallholders and hinder poverty reduction in developing countries. This paper uses a global value chain approach to explain the relationship between value chain structure and agrifood safety and quality standards and to discuss the challenges and possibilities this entails for the upgrading of smallholders. It maps four potential value chain scenarios depending on the degree of concentration in the markets for agrifood supply (farmers and manufacturers) and demand (supermarkets and other food retailers) and discusses the impact of lead firms and key intermediaries on smallholders in different chain situations. Each scenario is illustrated with case examples. Theoretical and policy issues are discussed, along with proposals for future research in terms of industry structure, private governance, and sustainable value chains.

The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: methodologies used in the elicitation and storage of human factors data

This paper describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews with evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 September 2001. In particular the paper describes the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). This is a flexible qualitative research tool which contains the full transcribed interview accounts and coded evacuee experiences extracted from those transcripts. The data and information captured and stored in the HEED database is not only unique, but it provides a means to address current and emerging issues relating to human factors associated with the evacuation of high-rise buildings.

Research and design challenges for developing personalised eLearning systems

While E-learning technologies are continuously developing, there are number of emerging issues and challenges that have significant impact on e-learning research and design. These include educational, technological, sociological, and psychological viewpoints. The extant literature points out that a large number of existing E-learning systems have problems with offering reusable, personalized and learner-centric content. While developers are placing emphasis on the technology aspects of e-learning, critical conceptual and pedagogical issues are often ignored. This paper will reports on our research in design and development of personalised e-learning systems and some of the challenges and issues faced.

Methodologies employed in the collection, retrieval and storage of human factors information derived from first hand accounts of survivors of the WTC disaster of 11 September 2001

This article provides a broad overview of project HEED (High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database) and the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews of evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on September 11, 2001. In particular, the article describes the development of the HEED database. This is a flexible research tool which contains qualitative type data in the form of coded evacuee experiences along with the full interview transcripts. The data and information captured and stored in the HEED database is not only unique, but provides a means to address current and emerging issues relating to human factors associated with the evacuation of high-rise buildings

Industrial water pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh: strategies and incentives for pollution control in small and medium enterprises

The extent and gravity of the environmental degradation of the water resources in Dhaka due to untreated industrial waste is not fully recognised in international discourse. Pollution levels affect vast numbers, but the poor and the vulnerable are the worst affected. For example, rice productivity, the mainstay of poor farmers, in the Dhaka watershed has declined by 40% over a period of ten years. The study found significant correlations between water pollution and diseases such as jaundice, diarrhoea and skin problems. It was reported that the cost of treatment of one episode of skin disease could be as high as 29% of the weekly earnings of some of the poorest households. The dominant approach to deal with pollution in the SMEs is technocratic. Given the magnitude of the problem this paper argues that to control industrial pollution by SMEs and to enhance their compliance it is necessary to move from the technocratic approach to one which can also address the wider institutional and attitudinal issues. Underlying this shift is the need to adopt the appropriate methodology. The multi-stakeholder analysis enables an understanding of the actors, their influence, their capacity to participate in, or oppose change, and the existing and embedded incentive structures which allow them to pursue interests which are generally detrimental to environmental good. This enabled core and supporting strategies to be developed around three types of actors in industrial pollution, i.e., (i) principal actors, who directly contribute to industrial pollution; (ii) stakeholders who exacerbate the situation; and (iii) potential actors in mitigation. Within a carrot-and-stick framework, the strategies aim to improve environmental governance and transparency, set up a packet to incentive for industry and increase public awareness.

New public management of Higher education, Foucault and power

The theory of New Public Management (NPM) suggest that one of the features of advanced liberal rule is the tendency to define social, economic and political issues as problems to be solved through management. This paper argues that the restructuring of Higher Education (HE) in many Western countries since the 1980s has involved a shift from an emphasis on administration and policy to one of its efficient management. Utilising Foucault’s concept of governmentality rather than the liberal discourse of management as a politically neutral technology, managerialism can be seen as a newly emergent and increasingly rationalised disciplinary regime of governmentalising practices in advanced liberalism. As such the contemporary University as an institution governed by NPM can be demonstrated to have emerged not as the direct outcome of democratic policies that have rationalised its activities (so that the emancipatory aims of personal development, an educated workforce and of true research can be fully realised), nor can it be understood as the instrument through which individuals or self-realising classes are defeated through the calculations of the state acting on behalf of economic interests, rather it can be seen as the contingent and intractable outcome of the complex power/knowledge relations of advanced liberalism. I analyse the interlocking of the ‘tutor-subject’ and ‘student-subject’ as a local enacting of policy discourse informed by the NPM of HE that reshapes subjectivity and retunes the relationship between tutor and student. I put forward suggestions for how resistance to these new modes of disciplinary subjectification can be enacted.