Statistical evaluation of texture analysis from the biocrystallization method

The consumers are becoming more concerned about food quality, especially regarding how, when and where the foods are produced (Haglund et al., 1999; Kahl et al., 2004; Alföldi, et al., 2006). Therefore, during recent years there has been a growing interest in the methods for food quality assessment, especially in the picture-development methods as a complement to traditional chemical analysis of single compounds (Kahl et al., 2006). The biocrystallization as one of the picture-developing method is based on the crystallographic phenomenon that when crystallizing aqueous solutions of dihydrate CuCl2 with adding of organic solutions, originating, e.g., from crop samples, biocrystallograms are generated with reproducible crystal patterns (Kleber & Steinike-Hartung, 1959). Its output is a crystal pattern on glass plates from which different variables (numbers) can be calculated by using image analysis. However, there is a lack of a standardized evaluation method to quantify the morphological features of the biocrystallogram image. Therefore, the main sakes of this research are (1) to optimize an existing statistical model in order to describe all the effects that contribute to the experiment, (2) to investigate the effect of image parameters on the texture analysis of the biocrystallogram images, i.e., region of interest (ROI), color transformation and histogram matching on samples from the project 020E170/F financed by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection(BMELV).The samples are wheat and carrots from controlled field and farm trials, (3) to consider the strongest effect of texture parameter with the visual evaluation criteria that have been developed by a group of researcher (University of Kassel, Germany; Louis Bolk Institute (LBI), Netherlands and Biodynamic Research Association Denmark (BRAD), Denmark) in order to clarify how the relation of the texture parameter and visual characteristics on an image is. The refined statistical model was accomplished by using a lme model with repeated measurements via crossed effects, programmed in R (version 2.1.0). The validity of the F and P values is checked against the SAS program. While getting from the ANOVA the same F values, the P values are bigger in R because of the more conservative approach. The refined model is calculating more significant P values. The optimization of the image analysis is dealing with the following parameters: ROI(Region of Interest which is the area around the geometrical center), color transformation (calculation of the 1 dimensional gray level value out of the three dimensional color information of the scanned picture, which is necessary for the texture analysis), histogram matching (normalization of the histogram of the picture to enhance the contrast and to minimize the errors from lighting conditions). The samples were wheat from DOC trial with 4 field replicates for the years 2003 and 2005, “market samples”(organic and conventional neighbors with the same variety) for 2004 and 2005, carrot where the samples were obtained from the University of Kassel (2 varieties, 2 nitrogen treatments) for the years 2004, 2005, 2006 and “market samples” of carrot for the years 2004 and 2005. The criterion for the optimization was repeatability of the differentiation of the samples over the different harvest(years). For different samples different ROIs were found, which reflect the different pictures. The best color transformation that shows efficiently differentiation is relied on gray scale, i.e., equal color transformation. The second dimension of the color transformation only appeared in some years for the effect of color wavelength(hue) for carrot treated with different nitrate fertilizer levels. The best histogram matching is the Gaussian distribution. The approach was to find a connection between the variables from textural image analysis with the different visual criteria. The relation between the texture parameters and visual evaluation criteria was limited to the carrot samples, especially, as it could be well differentiated by the texture analysis. It was possible to connect groups of variables of the texture analysis with groups of criteria from the visual evaluation. These selected variables were able to differentiate the samples but not able to classify the samples according to the treatment. Contrarily, in case of visual criteria which describe the picture as a whole there is a classification in 80% of the sample cases possible. Herewith, it clearly can find the limits of the single variable approach of the image analysis (texture analysis).

Synthese und Charakterisierung von Spirocyclopentadithiophenen

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde eine Syntheseroute zu einem neuartigen heteroanalogen Spirobifluoren auf Basis von Thiophen entwickelt und optimiert. Der neue Spirokern konnte durch Anbringung von Elektronendonor- bzw. Elektronenakzeptorgruppen funktionalisiert werden. Die erhaltenen Funktionsmaterialien wurden spektroskopisch (Ultraviolet-Visible, Fluoreszenz), thermoanalytisch (Thermogravimetrische Analyse, Differential Thermo Analysis, Differential Scanning Calorimetry), elektrochemisch (Cyclovoltammetrie) sowie teilweise mittels Feldeffekttransistor charaktrisiert.Zur Totalsynthese des neuen auf Thiophen basierenden Spirokerns 4,4´-Spirobi[cyclopenta[2,1-b:3,4-b´]dithiophen] (SCPDT) wurde eine Syntheseroute entworfen, die ausgehend von Thiophen keine weiteren aufwändigen Precursormoleküle voraussetzt. Durch die Anbringung von stabilisierenden Endgruppen war es möglich neuartige Funktionsmaterialien mit niedrigem HOMO-LUMO-Gap herzustellen. Die phenyl- bzw. biphenylsubstituierten Spirocyclopentadithiophene 4P-SCPDT und 4BP-SCPDT sind im Vergleich zu den analogen, auf Spirobifluoren basierenden Verbindungen (Spiroquaterthiophen und Spirosexiphenyl) deutlich leichter oxidier- und reduzierbar. Das erniedrigte HOMO-LUMO-Gap ist auch im Absorptions- und Fluoreszenzspektrum durch die im Vergleich zu den spirobifluorenanalogen Molekülen bathochrome bzw. bathofluore Verschiebung deutlich erkennbar. Sehr gut sind die Ergebnisse der Feldeffekttransistor- und Phototransistor-Messungen an aufgedampfem 4P-SCPDT. So lässt sich eine Lochbeweglichkeit von 2*10^-4 cm2/Vs ermitteln. Dies ist die höchste Lochbeweglichkeit, die bei Spiromolekülen im amorphen Film mit einem bottom-contact FET gemessen wurde, wobei die Grenzfläche zwischen Elektrode und Halbleiter noch nicht optimiert wurde. Selbst nach zehnmonatiger Lagerung unter Atmosphärenbedingungen bei Raumtemperatur konnten nahezu die gleichen Werte gemessen werden. Dieses Ergebnis unterstreicht die morphologische Stabilität des amorphen Filmes. Unter Bestrahlung mit UV-Licht zeigt sich ein ausgeprägter photovoltaischer Effekt. Das überrascht, da 4P-SCPDT kein typisches Donor-Akzeptor-Molekül ist. Das gemessene Ansprechvermögen (Verhältnis des elektrischen Output zum optischen Input) ist höher als das von polykristallinem Kupfer-Phthalocyanin (CuPc), konjugierten Polymeren oder anderen Spiromolekülen. Um die Lochleitungs- bzw. Elektronenleitungseigenschaften zu optimieren wurden desweiteren noch Diphenylaminophenyl-, Diphenylaminothiophenyl-, Perfluorhexylthiophenyl und Tricyanovinyl-Endgruppen an den den SCPDT-Kern angebracht und die erhaltenen Funktionsmaterialien charakterisiert.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines

This study describes a combined empirical/modeling approach to assess the possible impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. We collated climate data of the last two decades (1985-2002) as well as yield statistics of six provinces of the Philippines, selected along a North-South gradient. Data from the climate information system of NASA were used as input parameters of the model ORYZA2000 to determine potential yields and, in the next steps, the yield gaps defined as the difference between potential and actual yields. Both simulated and actual yields of irrigated rice varied strongly between years. However, no climate-driven trends were apparent and the variability in actual yields showed no correlation with climatic parameters. The observed variation in simulated yields was attributable to seasonal variations in climate (dry/wet season) and to climatic differences between provinces and agro-ecological zones. The actual yield variation between provinces was not related to differences in the climatic yield potential but rather to soil and management factors. The resulting yield gap was largest in remote and infrastructurally disfavored provinces (low external input use) with a high production potential (high solar radiation and day-night temperature differences). In turn, the yield gap was lowest in central provinces with good market access but with a relatively low climatic yield potential. We conclude that neither long-term trends nor the variability of the climate can explain current rice yield trends and that agroecological, seasonal, and management effects are over-riding any possible climatic variations. On the other hand the lack of a climate-driven trend in the present situation may be superseded by ongoing climate change in the future.

Parameter identification of structural dynamic models by inverse statistical analysis

Auf dem Gebiet der Strukturdynamik sind computergestützte Modellvalidierungstechniken inzwischen weit verbreitet. Dabei werden experimentelle Modaldaten, um ein numerisches Modell für weitere Analysen zu korrigieren. Gleichwohl repräsentiert das validierte Modell nur das dynamische Verhalten der getesteten Struktur. In der Realität gibt es wiederum viele Faktoren, die zwangsläufig zu variierenden Ergebnissen von Modaltests führen werden: Sich verändernde Umgebungsbedingungen während eines Tests, leicht unterschiedliche Testaufbauten, ein Test an einer nominell gleichen aber anderen Struktur (z.B. aus der Serienfertigung), etc. Damit eine stochastische Simulation durchgeführt werden kann, muss eine Reihe von Annahmen für die verwendeten Zufallsvariablengetroffen werden. Folglich bedarf es einer inversen Methode, die es ermöglicht ein stochastisches Modell aus experimentellen Modaldaten zu identifizieren. Die Arbeit beschreibt die Entwicklung eines parameter-basierten Ansatzes, um stochastische Simulationsmodelle auf dem Gebiet der Strukturdynamik zu identifizieren. Die entwickelte Methode beruht auf Sensitivitäten erster Ordnung, mit denen Parametermittelwerte und Kovarianzen des numerischen Modells aus stochastischen experimentellen Modaldaten bestimmt werden können.

Status and Potential of Smallholder Livestock Production Systems in Xishuangbanna, southern P.R. China

With Chinas rapid economic development during the last decades, the national demand for livestock products has quadrupled within the last 20 years. Most of that increase in demand has been answered by subsidized industrialized production systems, while million of smallholders, which still provide the larger share of livestock products in the country, have been neglected. Fostering those systems would help China to lower its strong urban migration streams, enhance the livelihood of poorer rural population and provide environmentally save livestock products which have a good chance to satisfy customers demand for ecological food. Despite their importance, China’s smallholder livestock keepers have not yet gained appropriate attention from governmental authorities and researchers. However, profound analysis of those systems is required so that adequate support can lead to a better resource utilization and productivity in the sector. To this aim, this pilot study analyzes smallholder livestock production systems in Xishuangbanna, located in southern China. The area is bordered by Lao and Myanmar and geographically counts as tropical region. Its climate is characterized by dry and temperate winters and hot summers with monsoon rains from May to October. While the regionis plain, at about 500 m asl above sea level in the south, outliers of the Himalaya mountains reach out into the north of Xishuangbanna, where the highest peak reaches 2400 m asl. Except of one larger city, Jinghong, Xishuangbanna mainly is covered by tropical rainforest, areas under agricultural cultivation and villages. The major income is generated through inner-Chinese tourism and agricultural production. Intensive rubber plantations are distinctive for the lowland plains while small-scaled traditional farms are scattered in the mountane regions. In order to determine the current state and possible future chances of smallholder livestock production in that region, this study analyzed the current status of the smallholder livestock sector in the Naban River National Nature Reserve (NRNNR), an area which is largely representative for the whole prefecture. It covers an area of about 50square kilometer and reaches from 470 up to 2400 m asl. About 5500 habitants of different ethnic origin are situated in 24 villages. All data have been collected between October 2007 and May 2010. Three major objectives have been addressed in the study: 1. Classifying existing pig production systems and exploring respective pathways for development 2. Quantifying the performance of pig breeding systemsto identify bottlenecks for production 3. Analyzing past and current buffalo utilization to determine the chances and opportunities of buffalo keeping in the future In order to classify the different pig production s ystems, a baseline survey (n=204, stratified cluster sampling) was carried out to gain data about livestock species, numbers, management practices, cultivated plant species and field sizes as well associo-economic characteristics. Sampling included two clusters at village level (altitude, ethnic affiliation), resulting in 13 clusters of which 13-17 farms were interviewed respectively. Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA) and a two-step clustering algorithm have been applied to identify determining farm characteristics and assort recorded households into classes of livestock production types. The variables keep_sow_yes/no, TLU_pig, TLU_buffalo, size_of_corn_fields, altitude_class, size_of_tea_plantationand size_of_rubber_fieldhave been found to be major determinants for the characterization of the recorded farms. All farms have extensive or semi-intensive livestock production, pigs and buffaloes are predominant livestock species while chicken and aquaculture are available but play subordinate roles for livelihoods. All pig raisers rely on a single local breed, which is known as Small Ear Pig (SMEP) in the region. Three major production systemshave been identified: Livestock-corn based LB; 41%), rubber based (RB; 39%) and pig based (PB;20%) systems. RB farms earn high income from rubber and fatten 1.9 ±1.80 pigs per household (HH), often using purchased pig feed at markets. PB farms own similar sized rubber plantations and raise 4.7 ±2.77 pigs per HH, with fodder mainly being cultivated and collected in theforest. LB farms grow corn, rice and tea and keep 4.6 ±3.32 pigs per HH, also fed with collected and cultivated fodder. Only 29% of all pigs were marketed (LB: 20%; RB: 42%; PB: 25%), average annual mortality was 4.0 ±4.52 pigs per farm (LB: 4.6 ±3.68; RB: 1.9 ±2.14; PB: 7.1 ±10.82). Pig feed mainly consists of banana pseudo stem, corn and rice hives and is prepared in batches about two to three times per week. Such fodder might be sufficient in energy content but lacks appropriate content of protein. Pigs therefore suffer from malnutrition, which becomes most critical in the time before harvest season around October. Farmers reported high occurrences of gastrointestinal parasites in carcasses and often pig stables were wet and filled with manure. Deficits in nutritional and hygienic management are major limits for development and should be the first issues addressed to improve productivity. SME pork was found to be known and referred by local customers in town and by richer lowland farmers. However, high prices and lacking availability of SME pork at local wet-markets were the reasons which limited purchase. If major management constraints are overcome, pig breeders (PB and LB farms) could increase the share of marketed pigs for town markets and provide fatteners to richer RB farmers. RB farmers are interested in fattening pigs for home consumption but do not show any motivation for commercial pig raising. To determine the productivity of input factors in pig production, eproductive performance, feed quality and quantity as well as weight development of pigs under current management were recorded. The data collection included a progeny history survey covering 184 sows and 437 farrows, bi-weekly weighing of 114 pigs during a 16-months time-span on 21 farms (10 LB and 11 PB) as well as the daily recording of feed quality and quantity given to a defined number of pigs on the same 21 farms. Feed samples of all recorded ingredients were analyzed for their respective nutrient content. Since no literature values on thedigestibility of banana pseudo stem – which is a major ingredient of traditional pig feed in NRNNR – were found, a cross-sectional digestibility trial with 2x4 pigs has been conducted on a station in the research area. With the aid of PRY Herd Life Model, all data have been utilized to determine thesystems’ current (Status Quo = SQ) output and the productivity of the input factor “feed” in terms of saleable life weight per kg DM feed intake and monetary value of output per kg DM feed intake.Two improvement scenarios were simulated, assuming 1) that farmers adopt a culling managementthat generates the highest output per unit input (Scenario 1; SC I) and 2) that through improved feeding, selected parameters of reproduction are improved by 30% (SC II). Daily weight gain averaged 55 ± 56 g per day between day 200 and 600. The average feed energy content of traditional feed mix was 14.92 MJ ME. Age at first farrowing averaged 14.5 ± 4.34 months, subsequent inter-farrowing interval was 11.4 ± 2.73 months. Littersize was 5.8 piglets and weaning age was 4.3 ± 0.99 months. 18% of piglets died before weaning. Simulating pig production at actualstatus, it has been show that monetary returns on inputs (ROI) is negative (1:0.67), but improved (1:1.2) when culling management was optimized so that highest output is gained per unit feed input. If in addition better feeding, controlled mating and better resale prices at fixed dates were simulated, ROI further increased to 1:2.45, 1:2.69, 1:2.7 and 1:3.15 for four respective grower groups. Those findings show the potential of pork production, if basic measures of improvement are applied. Futureexploration of the environment, including climate, market-season and culture is required before implementing the recommended measures to ensure a sustainable development of a more effective and resource conserving pork production in the future. The two studies have shown that the production of local SME pigs plays an important role in traditional farms in NRNNR but basic constraints are limiting their productivity. However, relatively easy approaches are sufficient for reaching a notable improvement. Also there is a demand for more SME pork on local markets and, if basic constraints have been overcome, pig farmers could turn into more commercial producers and provide pork to local markets. By that, environmentally safe meat can be offered to sensitive consumers while farmers increase their income and lower the risk of external shocks through a more diverse income generating strategy. Buffaloes have been found to be the second important livestock species on NRNNR farms. While they have been a core resource of mixed smallholderfarms in the past, the expansion of rubber tree plantations and agricultural mechanization are reasons for decreased swamp buffalo numbers today. The third study seeks to predict future utilization of buffaloes on different farm types in NRNNR by analyzing the dynamics of its buffalo population and land use changes over time and calculating labor which is required for keeping buffaloes in view of the traction power which can be utilized for field preparation. The use of buffaloes for field work and the recent development of the egional buffalo population were analyzed through interviews with 184 farmers in 2007/2008 and discussions with 62 buffalo keepers in 2009. While pig based farms (PB; n=37) have abandoned buffalo keeping, 11% of the rubber based farms (RB; n=71) and 100% of the livestock-corn based farms (LB; n=76) kept buffaloes in 2008. Herd size was 2.5 ±1.80 (n=84) buffaloes in early 2008 and 2.2 ±1.69 (n=62) in 2009. Field work on own land was the main reason forkeeping buffaloes (87.3%), but lending work buffaloes to neighbors (79.0%) was also important. Other purposes were transport of goods (16.1%), buffalo trade (11.3%) and meat consumption(6.4%). Buffalo care required 6.2 ±3.00 working hours daily, while annual working time of abuffalo was 294 ±216.6 hours. The area ploughed with buffaloes remained constant during the past 10 years despite an expansion of land cropped per farm. Further rapid replacement of buffaloes by tractors is expected in the near future. While the work economy is drastically improved by the use of tractors, buffaloes still can provide cheap work force and serve as buffer for economic shocks on poorer farms. Especially poor farms, which lack alternative assets that could quickly be liquidizedin times of urgent need for cash, should not abandon buffalo keeping. Livestock has been found to be a major part of small mixed farms in NRNNR. The general productivity was low in both analyzed species, buffaloes and pigs. Productivity of pigs can be improved through basic adjustments in feeding, reproductive and hygienic management, and with external support pig production could further be commercialized to provide pork and weaners to local markets and fattening farms. Buffalo production is relatively time intensive, and only will be of importance in the future to very poor farms and such farms that cultivate very small terraces on steep slopes. These should be encouraged to further keep buffaloes. With such measures, livestock production in NRNNR has good chances to stay competitive in the future.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Effects of transformation processes in 'jubraka' agroforestry systems of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, on nutrient fluxes

Intensification processes in homegardens of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, raise concerns about strongly positive carbon (C) and nutrient balances which are expected to lead to substantial element losses from these agroecosystems, in particular via soil gaseous emissions. Therefore, this thesis aimed at the quantification of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) input and output fluxes with a special focus on soil gaseous losses, and the calculation of respective element balances. A further focus in this thesis was rainfall, a valuable resource for rain-fed agriculture in the Nuba Mountains. To minimize negative consequences of the high variability of rainfall, risk reducing mechanisms were developed by rain-fed farmers that may lose their efficacy in the course of climate change effects predicted for East Africa. Therefore, the second objective of this study was to examine possible changes in rainfall amounts during the last 60 years and to provide reliable risk and probability statements of rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance to rain-fed farmers in the Nuba Mountains. Soil gaseous emissions of C (in form of CO2) and N (in form of NH3 and N2O) of two traditional and two intensified homegardens were determined with a portable dynamic closed chamber system. For C gaseous emission rates reached their peak at the onset of the rainy season (2,325 g CO2-C ha-1 h-1 in an intensified garden type) and for N during the rainy season (16 g NH3-N ha-1 h-1 and 11.3 g N2O-N ha-1 h-1, in a traditional garden type). Data indicated cumulative annual emissions of 5,893 kg CO2-C ha-1, 37 kg NH3-N ha-1, and 16 kg N2O-N ha-1. For the assessment of the long-term productivity of the two types of homegardens and the identification of pathways of substantial element losses, a C and nutrient budget approach was used. In three traditional and three intensified homegardens observation plots were selected. The following variables were quantified on each plot between June and December in 2010: soil amendments, irrigation, biomass removal, symbiotic N2 fixation, C fixation by photosynthesis, atmospheric wet and dry deposition, leaching and soil gaseous emissions. Annual balances for C and nutrients amounted to -21 kg C ha-1, -70 kg N ha-1, 9 kg P ha-1 and -117 kg K ha-1 in intensified homegardens and to -1,722 kg C ha-1, -167 kg N ha-1, -9 kg P ha-1 and -74 kg K ha-1 in traditional homegardens. For the analysis of rainfall data, the INSTAT+ software allowed to aggregate long-term daily rainfall records from the Kadugli and Rashad weather stations into daily, monthly and annual intervals and to calculate rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance. Subsequently, these calculated values and events were checked for possible monotonic trends by Mann-Kendall tests. Over the period from 1970 to 2009, annual rainfall did not change significantly for either station. However, during this period an increase of low rainfall events coinciding with a decline in the number of medium daily rainfall events was observed in Rashad. Furthermore, the availability of daily rainfall data enabled frequency and conditional probability calculations that showed either no statistically significant changes or trends resulting only in minor changes of probabilities.

A molecular and cellular analysis of the circadian system of the cockroach Rhyparobia (Leucophaea) maderae

Circadiane Schrittmacher koordinieren die täglichen Rhythmen in Physiologie und Verhalten in lebenden Organismen. Die Madeira Schabe Rhyparobia maderae (Synonym: Leucophaea maderae) ist ein gut etabliertes Modell, um die neuronalen Mechanismen der circadianen Rhythmen bei Insekten zu studieren. Die akzessorische Medulla (AME) in den optischen Loben des Gehirns wurde als das circadiane Schrittmacherzentrum der Madeira Schabe identifiziert, das circadiane Rhythmen in der Laufaktivität steuert. Über die Neurotransmitter der Eingangswege in das circadiane System der Madeira Schabe ist noch nicht viel bekannt. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit war es, mögliche Eingangssignale in die innere Uhr der Madeira Schabe zu bestimmen. An primären Zellkulturen von AME-Neuronen wurden Calcium-Imaging Experimente durchgeführt, um die Neurotransmitter-abhängigen Veränderungen in der intrazellulären Calcium-Konzentration zu messen. Darüber hinaus wurde die Signalkaskade des Neuropeptids Pigment Dispersing Factor (PDF), dem wichtigsten Kopplungsfaktor in circadianen Schrittmachern von Insekten, in Calcium-Imaging und Förster-Resonanzenergietransfer (FRET) Experimenten untersucht. Acetylcholin (ACh) erhöht die intrazelluläre Calcium-Konzentration in der Mehrzahl der circadianen Schrittmacherneurone der Madeiraschabe. Applikation von GABA, Serotonin und Octopamin erhöhten oder reduzierten die intrazelluläre Calcium-Konzentration in den AME-Neuronen, während Histamin und Glutamat die intrazelluläre Calcium-Konzentration ausschließlich reduzierten. Pharmakologische Experimente zeigten, dass die AME-Neurone ACh über ionotrope nikotinische ACh-Rezeptoren detektierten, während GABA über ionotrope GABAA-Rezeptoren und metabotrope GABAB-Rezeptoren detektiert wurde. Diese Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die circadiane Aktivität der Schabe durch verschiedene Eingänge, einschließlich ACh, GABA, Glutamat, Histamin, Octopamin und Serotonin, moduliert wird. Bei den FRET Studien wurde ein Proteinkinase A (PKA)-basierter FRET Sensor zur Detektion von cyclischem AMP (cAMP) verwendet. Es wurde gezeigt, dass PDF über Adenylylcyclase-abhängige und -unabhängige Signalwege wirken kann. Zusätzlich wurden Laufrad-Assays durchgeführt, um Phasenverschiebungen im Rhythmus der circadianen Laufaktivität zu detektieren, nachdem der Neurotransmitter Histamin zu verschiedenen circadianen Zeiten injiziert wurde. Histamin-Injektionen durch die Komplexaugen der Schabe ergaben eine biphasische Phasenantwortkurve (phase response curve) mit Phasenverzögerungen in der Laufaktivität am späten subjektiven Tag und am Beginn der subjektiven Nacht und Phasenbeschleunigungen in der späten subjektiven Nacht. Schließlich wurde eine extrazelluläre Ableittechnik an lebenden Schaben etabliert, die gleichzeitige Langzeit-Ableitungen von der AME, des Komplexauges (Elektroretinogramm = ERG), und der Beinmuskulatur (Elektromyogramm = EMG) für mehrere Tage ermöglichte. Diese Methode bietet einen Ausgangspunkt für weitere elektrophysiologische Untersuchungen des circadianen Systems der Schabe, in denen Substanzen (z.B. Neurotransmitter und Neuropeptide) analysiert werden können, die einen Einfluss auf den circadianen Rhythmus in der Laufaktivität haben

eLearning im Sportstudium

In der gesamten Hochschullandschaft begleiten eLearning-Szenarien organisatorische Erneuerungsprozesse und stellen damit ein vielversprechendes Instrument zur Unterstützung und Verbesserung der klassischen Präsenzlehre dar. Davon ausgehend wurde von 2010 bis 2011 das Kasseler Sportspiel-Modell um die integrative Vermittlung der Einkontakt-Rückschlagspiele erweitert (Heyer, Albert, Scheid & Blömeke-Rumpf, 2011) und in einen modularisierten eLearning-Content, bestehend aus insgesamt 4 Modulen (17 Lernkurse, 171 Kursseiten, 73 Grafiken, 73 Videos, 38 Lernkontrollfragen), eingebunden. Dieser Content wurde im Rahmen einer Evaluationsstudie in Blended Learning Seminaren, welche die didaktischen Vorteile von Online- und Präsenzphasen zu einer Seminarform vereinen (Treumann, Ganguin & Arens, 2012), vergleichend zur klassischen Präsenzlehre im Sportstudium betrachtet. Die Studie gliedert sich in insgesamt drei Phasen: 1.) Pilotstudie am IfSS in Kassel (WS 2011/12; N=17, Lehramt), 2.) Hauptuntersuchung I am IfSS in Kassel (SS 2012; N=67, Lehramt) und 3.) Hauptuntersuchung II am IfS in Frankfurt a. M. (WS 2012/13; N=112, BA). Mittels varianzanalytischer Untersuchungsverfahren erfasst die Studie auf drei unterschiedlichen Qualitätsebenen folgende Aspekte der Lehr-Lernforschung: 1.) Ebene der Inputqualität: Bewertung der Seminarform (BS), 2.) Ebene der Prozessqualität: Motivation (SELLMO-ST), Lernstrategien (LIST) und computerbezogene Einstellung (FIDEC), 3.) Ebene der Outcomequalität: Lernleistung (Abschlusstest und Transferaufgabe). In der vergleichenden Betrachtung der beiden Hauptuntersuchungen erfolgt eine Gegenüberstellung von je einem Präsenzseminar zu zwei unterschiedlichen Varianten von Blended Learning Seminaren (BL-1, BL-2). Während der Online-Phasen bearbeiten die Sportstudierenden in BL-1 die Module in Lerngruppen. Die Teilnehmer in BL-2 führen in diesen Phasen zusätzlich persönliche Lerntagebücher. Dies soll zu einer vergleichsweise intensiveren Auseinandersetzung mit den Inhalten der Lernkurse sowie dem eigenen Lernprozess auf kognitiver und metakognitiver Ebene anregen (Hübner, Nückles & Renkl, 2007) und folglich zu besseren Ergebnissen auf den drei Qualitätsebenen führen. Die Ergebnisse der beiden Hauptuntersuchungen zeigen in der direkten, standortbezogenen Gegenüberstellung aller drei Seminarformen überwiegend keine statistisch signifikanten Unterschiede. Der erwartete positive Effekt durch die Einführung des Lerntagebuchs bleibt ebenfalls aus. Im standortübergreifenden Vergleich der Blended-Learning-Seminare ist bemerkenswert, dass die Probanden aus Frankfurt gegenüber ihrer Seminarform eine tendenziell kritischere Haltung einnehmen, was möglicherweise mit den vorherrschenden, unterschiedlichen Studiengängen – Lehramt und BA – korrespondiert. Zusammenfassend lässt sich somit für den untersuchten Bereich der Rückschlagspielvermittlung festhalten, dass Blended-Learning-Seminare eine qualitativ gleichwertige Alternative zur klassischen Präsenzlehre im Sportstudium darstellen.

Determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in southwestern Bangladesh

This paper estimates a translog stochastic production function to examine the determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in Bangladesh. Primary data has been collected using random sampling from 90 farmers of three villages in southwestern Bangladesh. Prawn farming displayed much variability in technical efficiency ranging from 9.50 to 99.94% with mean technical efficiency of 65%, which suggested a substantial 35% of potential output can be recovered by removing inefficiency. For a land scarce country like Bangladesh this gain could help increase income and ensure better livelihood for the farmers. Based on the translog production function specification, farmers could be made scale efficient by providing more input to produce more output. The results suggest that farmers’ education and non-farm income significantly improve efficiency whilst farmers’ training, farm distance from the water canal and involvement in fish farm associations reduces efficiency. Hence, the study proposes strategies such as less involvement in farming-related associations and raising the effective training facilities of the farmers as beneficial adjustments for reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the key policy implication of the analysis is that investment in primary education would greatly improve technical efficiency.

Structural Dynamics Model of a Cartesian Robot

Methods are developed for predicting vibration response characteristics of systems which change configuration during operation. A cartesian robot, an example of such a position-dependent system, served as a test case for these methods and was studied in detail. The chosen system model was formulated using the technique of Component Mode Synthesis (CMS). The model assumes that he system is slowly varying, and connects the carriages to each other and to the robot structure at the slowly varying connection points. The modal data required for each component is obtained experimentally in order to get a realistic model. The analysis results in prediction of vibrations that are produced by the inertia forces as well as gravity and friction forces which arise when the robot carriages move with some prescribed motion. Computer simulations and experimental determinations are conducted in order to calculate the vibrations at the robot end-effector. Comparisons are shown to validate the model in two ways: for fixed configuration the mode shapes and natural frequencies are examined, and then for changing configuration the residual vibration at the end of the mode is evaluated. A preliminary study was done on a geometrically nonlinear system which also has position-dependency. The system consisted of a flexible four-bar linkage with elastic input and output shafts. The behavior of the rocker-beam is analyzed for different boundary conditions to show how some limiting cases are obtained. A dimensional analysis leads to an evaluation of the consequences of dynamic similarity on the resulting vibration.

CODAPACK3D. A new version of Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data should be treated using logratios of parts, which are difficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. For this reason a freeware package, named CoDaPack was created. This software implements most of the basic statistical methods suitable for compositional data. In this paper we describe the new version of the package that now is called CoDaPack3D. It is developed in Visual Basic for applications (associated with Excel©), Visual Basic and Open GL, and it is oriented towards users with a minimum knowledge of computers with the aim at being simple and easy to use. This new version includes new graphical output in 2D and 3D. These outputs could be zoomed and, in 3D, rotated. Also a customization menu is included and outputs could be saved in jpeg format. Also this new version includes an interactive help and all dialog windows have been improved in order to facilitate its use. To use CoDaPack one has to access Excel© and introduce the data in a standard spreadsheet. These should be organized as a matrix where Excel© rows correspond to the observations and columns to the parts. The user executes macros that return numerical or graphical results. There are two kinds of numerical results: new variables and descriptive statistics, and both appear on the same sheet. Graphical output appears in independent windows. In the present version there are 8 menus, with a total of 38 submenus which, after some dialogue, directly call the corresponding macro. The dialogues ask the user to input variables and further parameters needed, as well as where to put these results. The web site http://ima.udg.es/CoDaPack contains this freeware package and only Microsoft Excel© under Microsoft Windows© is required to run the software. Kew words: Compositional data Analysis, Software

Input y expresión escrita libre.

Comprobar la pertinencia de utilizar un input (los materiales que se presentan al alumno) muy controlado, progresivo y en el que se van introduciendo elementos que van un poco más allá de la realización del alumno siguiendo a Krashen. Analizar el efecto que este input tiene en la expresión escrita libre y comunicativa que es el output (lo que el alumno demuestra que ha aprendido) comprobable y analizable, y que a su vez nos dará la medida del intake (lo que el alumno ha asimilado). Analizar las implicaciones teóricas, lingüísticas y psicolingüísticas de este estudio. 47 alumnos, procedentes de distintas partes de España, que siguen una enseñanza a distancia, mayores de 25 años. 44 alumnos de tercero de BUP que han seguido una enseñanza reglada y profesional durante 6 años. La muestra contiene un total de 1022 realizaciones que se analizan a partir de una ficha informatizada. Se considera fundamental la relación que hay entre el input de cada una de las unidades de Cher Ami y el output del alumno después de 4-8 horas de trabajo, a partir de unos modelos de lecturas. Frente a estas lecturas, los alumnos deben contestar en un texto escrito de 5-10 frases. Se diseña una ficha donde los profesores tutores de los centros participantes transcriben las realizaciones escritas libres de los alumnos en cada una de las 18 unidades. Cada tutor estudia los errores, analiza semántica y pragmáticamente, y señala las realizaciones relevantes. El programa informático compara el input utilizado con el input dado, y elabora listas con el input utilizado, el no utilizado y extrainput (elementos utilizados por el alumno que no figuran en los materiales dados). El equipo investigador unifica criterios, limpia las listas correspondientes y prepara la entrada de datos para el análisis de resultados. Prueba, programa de ordenador. Porcentajes, tablas, estudio contrastivo. Se agrupan en cuatro grandes bloques. 1. Resultados por unidades didácticas que permiten un análisis de contraste con los contenidos y estrategias de cada una de las unidades del método utilizado, y llevan a la modificación de algunos aspectos concretos de dichos materiales. 2. El análisis global, que contiene los análisis de los errores más frecuentes y sus causas. El análisis semántico permite conocer los campos de interés del alumno, con un tipo de realizaciones muy centradas en sí mismos y en su entorno inmediato. 3. El estudio contrastivo con Bachiller ofrece como resultado el hecho sorprendente de que en un año y con una metodología programada se obtienen en el CAD resultados mucho más satisfactorios que en alumnos de bachiller que estudian el idioma de manera presencial por sexto año. 4. En el estudio individual secuencial, aunque los resultados son menos definitivos, se observa un mayor progreso en los alumnos que respetan el input, mientras que los que utilizan elementos de extrainput no sólo cometen más errores, sino que algunos de ellos llegan a verse bloqueados en su propio aprendizaje. Estos dos últimos bloques de resultados prueban la teoría de los autores de la investigación, de una mayor conveniencia del aprendizaje de una microlengua LE acumulativa y controlada, en vez de una interlengua que corre el riesgo de fosilizarse y bloquear al alumno en su proceso de aprendizaje, siempre que se trate de contextos no naturales y con un planteamiento curricular. Estos objetivos comunicativos, que se deben poder medir en su progreso, proporcionan una motivación intrínseca en el alumno que le hace ser partícipe de su aprendizaje y esto contribuirá a una mayor eficacia en el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje de los idiomas. Conviene revisar los contenidos y métodos de la enseñanza reglada y presencial.

Running Climate Models On The NERC Cluster Grid Using G-Rex

Compute grids are used widely in many areas of environmental science, but there has been limited uptake of grid computing by the climate modelling community, partly because the characteristics of many climate models make them difficult to use with popular grid middleware systems. In particular, climate models usually produce large volumes of output data, and running them usually involves complicated workflows implemented as shell scripts. For example, NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) is a state-of-the-art ocean model that is used currently for operational ocean forecasting in France, and will soon be used in the UK for both ocean forecasting and climate modelling. On a typical modern cluster, a particular one year global ocean simulation at 1-degree resolution takes about three hours when running on 40 processors, and produces roughly 20 GB of output as 50000 separate files. 50-year simulations are common, during which the model is resubmitted as a new job after each year. Running NEMO relies on a set of complicated shell scripts and command utilities for data pre-processing and post-processing prior to job resubmission. Grid Remote Execution (G-Rex) is a pure Java grid middleware system that allows scientific applications to be deployed as Web services on remote computer systems, and then launched and controlled as if they are running on the user's own computer. Although G-Rex is general purpose middleware it has two key features that make it particularly suitable for remote execution of climate models: (1) Output from the model is transferred back to the user while the run is in progress to prevent it from accumulating on the remote system and to allow the user to monitor the model; (2) The client component is a command-line program that can easily be incorporated into existing model work-flow scripts. G-Rex has a REST (Fielding, 2000) architectural style, which allows client programs to be very simple and lightweight and allows users to interact with model runs using only a basic HTTP client (such as a Web browser or the curl utility) if they wish. This design also allows for new client interfaces to be developed in other programming languages with relatively little effort. The G-Rex server is a standard Web application that runs inside a servlet container such as Apache Tomcat and is therefore easy to install and maintain by system administrators. G-Rex is employed as the middleware for the NERC1 Cluster Grid, a small grid of HPC2 clusters belonging to collaborating NERC research institutes. Currently the NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) and POLCOMS (Holt et al, 2008) ocean models are installed, and there are plans to install the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model for use in the decadal climate prediction project GCEP (Haines et al., 2008). The science projects involving NEMO on the Grid have a particular focus on data assimilation (Smith et al. 2008), a technique that involves constraining model simulations with observations. The POLCOMS model will play an important part in the GCOMS project (Holt et al, 2008), which aims to simulate the world’s coastal oceans. A typical use of G-Rex by a scientist to run a climate model on the NERC Cluster Grid proceeds as follows :(1) The scientist prepares input files on his or her local machine. (2) Using information provided by the Grid’s Ganglia3 monitoring system, the scientist selects an appropriate compute resource. (3) The scientist runs the relevant workflow script on his or her local machine. This is unmodified except that calls to run the model (e.g. with “mpirun”) are simply replaced with calls to "GRexRun" (4) The G-Rex middleware automatically handles the uploading of input files to the remote resource, and the downloading of output files back to the user, including their deletion from the remote system, during the run. (5) The scientist monitors the output files, using familiar analysis and visualization tools on his or her own local machine. G-Rex is well suited to climate modelling because it addresses many of the middleware usability issues that have led to limited uptake of grid computing by climate scientists. It is a lightweight, low-impact and easy-to-install solution that is currently designed for use in relatively small grids such as the NERC Cluster Grid. A current topic of research is the use of G-Rex as an easy-to-use front-end to larger-scale Grid resources such as the UK National Grid service.