Improving telecommunication security level by integrating quantum key distribution in communication protocols

Résumé La cryptographie classique est basée sur des concepts mathématiques dont la sécurité dépend de la complexité du calcul de l'inverse des fonctions. Ce type de chiffrement est à la merci de la puissance de calcul des ordinateurs ainsi que la découverte d'algorithme permettant le calcul des inverses de certaines fonctions mathématiques en un temps «raisonnable ». L'utilisation d'un procédé dont la sécurité est scientifiquement prouvée s'avère donc indispensable surtout les échanges critiques (systèmes bancaires, gouvernements,...). La cryptographie quantique répond à ce besoin. En effet, sa sécurité est basée sur des lois de la physique quantique lui assurant un fonctionnement inconditionnellement sécurisé. Toutefois, l'application et l'intégration de la cryptographie quantique sont un souci pour les développeurs de ce type de solution. Cette thèse justifie la nécessité de l'utilisation de la cryptographie quantique. Elle montre que le coût engendré par le déploiement de cette solution est justifié. Elle propose un mécanisme simple et réalisable d'intégration de la cryptographie quantique dans des protocoles de communication largement utilisés comme les protocoles PPP, IPSec et le protocole 802.1li. Des scénarios d'application illustrent la faisabilité de ces solutions. Une méthodologie d'évaluation, selon les critères communs, des solutions basées sur la cryptographie quantique est également proposée dans ce document. Abstract Classical cryptography is based on mathematical functions. The robustness of a cryptosystem essentially depends on the difficulty of computing the inverse of its one-way function. There is no mathematical proof that establishes whether it is impossible to find the inverse of a given one-way function. Therefore, it is mandatory to use a cryptosystem whose security is scientifically proven (especially for banking, governments, etc.). On the other hand, the security of quantum cryptography can be formally demonstrated. In fact, its security is based on the laws of physics that assure the unconditional security. How is it possible to use and integrate quantum cryptography into existing solutions? This thesis proposes a method to integrate quantum cryptography into existing communication protocols like PPP, IPSec and the 802.l1i protocol. It sketches out some possible scenarios in order to prove the feasibility and to estimate the cost of such scenarios. Directives and checkpoints are given to help in certifying quantum cryptography solutions according to Common Criteria.

Evaluation of ammonia volatilization losses by adjusted parameters of a logistic function

The dynamics of N losses in fertilizer by ammonia volatilization is affected by several factors, making investigation of these dynamics more complex. Moreover, some features of the behavior of the variable can lead to deviation from normal distribution, making the main commonly adopted statistical strategies inadequate for data analysis. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the patterns of cumulative N losses from urea through ammonia volatilization in order to find a more adequate and detailed way of assessing the behavior of the variable. For that reason, changes in patterns of ammonia volatilization losses as a result of applying different combinations of two soil classes [Planossolo and Chernossolo (Typic Albaqualf and Vertic Argiaquolls)] and different rates of urea (50, 100 and 150 kg ha-1 N), in the presence or absence of a urease inhibitor, were evaluated, adopting a 2 × 3 × 2 factorial design with four replications. Univariate and multivariate analysis of variance were performed using the adjusted parameter values of a logistic function as a response variable. The results obtained from multivariate analysis indicated a prominent effect of the soil class factor on the set of parameters, indicating greater relevance of soil adsorption potential on ammonia volatilization losses. Univariate analysis showed that the parameters related to total N losses and rate of volatilization were more affected by soil class and the rate of urea applied. The urease inhibitor affected only the rate and inflection point parameters, decreasing the rate of losses and delaying the beginning of the process, but had no effect on total ammonia losses. Patterns of ammonia volatilization losses provide details on behavior of the variable, details which can be used to develop and adopt more accurate techniques for more efficient use of urea.

Free inertial processes driven by Gaussian noise: Probability distributions, anomalous diffusion and fractal behavior

We study the motion of an unbound particle under the influence of a random force modeled as Gaussian colored noise with an arbitrary correlation function. We derive exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions and find the associated solutions. We analyze in detail anomalous diffusion behaviors along with the fractal structure of the trajectories of the particle and explore possible connections between dynamical exponents of the variance and the fractal dimension of the trajectories.

Class of correlated random networks with hidden variables

We study a class of models of correlated random networks in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices. We find analytical expressions for the main topological properties of these models as a function of the distribution of hidden variables and the probability of connecting vertices. The expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations in a particular example. The general model is extended to describe a practical algorithm to generate random networks with an a priori specified correlation structure. We also present an extension of the class, to map nonequilibrium growing networks to networks with hidden variables that represent the time at which each vertex was introduced in the system.

Particle orientation distribution in Y-Fe2O3magnetic tapes by Mössbauer and hysteresis loop measurements

The particle orientation in several Y-Fe2O3magnetic tapes has been quantitatively evaluated by using the data of both Mössbauer and hysteresis loop measurements performed in the three orthogonal directions. A texture function has been obtained as a development of real harmonics. The profile of the texture function gives the quality of the different magnetic tapes. A different degree of particle orientation at the surface of the tape is evidenced by means of conversion electron Mössbauer spectra.

On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Distribution of free and liposomal doxorubicin after isolated lung perfusion in a sarcoma model.

BACKGROUND: Isolated lung perfusion (ILP) with free and a novel liposomal-encapsulated doxorubicin (Liporubicin, CT Sciences SA, Lausanne, Switzerland) was compared with respect to drug uptake and distribution in rat lungs bearing a sarcomatous tumor. METHODS: A single sarcomatous tumor was generated in the left lung of 39 Fischer rats, followed 10 days later by left-sided ILP (n = 36) with free and equimolar-dosed liposomal doxorubicin at doses of 100 microg (n = 9) and 400 microg (n = 9) for each doxorubicin formulation. In each perfused lung, the drug concentration and distribution were assessed in the tumor and in three areas of normal lung parenchyma by high-performance liquid chromatography (n = 6) and fluorescence microscopy (n = 3). Histologic assessment and immunostaining with von Willebrand factor was performed in 3 animals with untreated tumors. RESULTS: The sarcomatous tumors in controls were well vascularized with fine branching capillaries present throughout the tumors. Isolated lung perfusion resulted in a heterogeneous drug distribution within the perfused lung and a consistently lower drug uptake in tumors than in lung parenchyma for both doxorubicin formulations and both drug doses applied. Isolated lung perfusion with free doxorubicin resulted in a significantly higher drug uptake than Liporubicin in both the tumor and lung tissue for both drug doses applied (p < 0.01). However, the tumor/normal tissue drug ratio was lower for free than for liposomal doxorubicin at a drug dose of 100 microg (0.27 +/- 0.1 vs 0.53 +/- 0.5; p = 0.225) and similar for both doxorubicin formulations at a drug dose of 400 microg (0.67 +/- 0.2 vs 0.54 +/- 0.2; p = 0.335). Both doxorubicin formulations resulted in fluorescence signaling emerging from all tissue compartments of normal lung parenchyma but only in weak and sporadic signaling from the tumors confined to the tumor periphery and vessels situated within the tumor for both drug doses assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Isolated lung perfusion with free and liposomal doxorubicin resulted in a heterogeneous drug distribution within the perfused lung and in a lower drug uptake in tumors than in lung tissue for both doxorubicin formulations and drug doses applied.

The contact region between three domains of the extracellular loop of ASIC1a is critical for channel function.

Acid-sensing ion channels are members of the epithelial Na(+) channel/degenerin family. They are neuronal nonvoltage-gated Na(+) channels that are activated by extracellular acidification. In this study, we investigated the role of a highly conserved region of the extracellular part of ASIC1a that forms the contact between the finger domain, the adjacent beta-ball, and the upper palm domain in ASIC1a. The finger domain contributes to the pH-dependent gating and is linked via this contact zone to the rest of the protein. We found that mutation to Cys of residues in this region led to decreased channel expression and current amplitudes. Exposure of the engineered Cys residues to Cd(2+) or to charged methane thiosulfonate sulfhydryl reagents further reduced current amplitudes. This current inhibition was not due to changes in acid-sensing ion channel pH dependence or unitary conductance and was likely due to a decrease of the probability of channel opening. For some mutants, the effect of sulfhydryl reagents depended on the pH of exposure in the range 7.4 to 6.8, suggesting that this zone undergoes conformational changes during inactivation. Our study identifies a region in ASIC1a whose integrity is required for normal channel function.

Ambulatory assessment of 3D ground reaction force using plantar pressure distribution.

This study aimed to use the plantar pressure insole for estimating the three-dimensional ground reaction force (GRF) as well as the frictional torque (T(F)) during walking. Eleven subjects, six healthy and five patients with ankle disease participated in the study while wearing pressure insoles during several walking trials on a force-plate. The plantar pressure distribution was analyzed and 10 principal components of 24 regional pressure values with the stance time percentage (STP) were considered for GRF and T(F) estimation. Both linear and non-linear approximators were used for estimating the GRF and T(F) based on two learning strategies using intra-subject and inter-subjects data. The RMS error and the correlation coefficient between the approximators and the actual patterns obtained from force-plate were calculated. Our results showed better performance for non-linear approximation especially when the STP was considered as input. The least errors were observed for vertical force (4%) and anterior-posterior force (7.3%), while the medial-lateral force (11.3%) and frictional torque (14.7%) had higher errors. The result obtained for the patients showed higher error; nevertheless, when the data of the same patient were used for learning, the results were improved and in general slight differences with healthy subjects were observed. In conclusion, this study showed that ambulatory pressure insole with data normalization, an optimal choice of inputs and a well-trained nonlinear mapping function can estimate efficiently the three-dimensional ground reaction force and frictional torque in consecutive gait cycle without requiring a force-plate.

Atmospheric deposition and migration of artificial radionuclides in Alpine soils (Val Piora, Switzerland) compared to the distribution of selected major and trace elements.

Artificial radionuclides ((137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, and (241)Am) are present in soils because of Nuclear Weapon Tests and accidents in nuclear facilities. Their distribution in soil depth varies according to soil characteristics, their own chemical properties, and their deposition history. For this project, we studied the atmospheric deposition of (137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, (241)Am, (210)Pb, and stable Pb. We compared the distribution of these elements in soil profiles from different soil types from an alpine Valley (Val Piora, Switzerland) with the distribution of selected major and trace elements in the same soils. Our goals were to explain the distribution of the radioisotopes as a function of soil parameters and to identify stable elements with analogous behaviors. We found that Pu and (241)Am are relatively immobile and accumulate in the topsoil. In all soils, (90)Sr is more mobile and shows some accumulations at depth into Fe-Al rich horizons. This behavior is also observed for Cu and Zn, indicating that these elements may be used as chemical analogues for the migration of (90)Sr into the soil.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Methods for Estimating Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Streams in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2010, TR-519, 2013

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance- probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedanceprobability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized leastsquares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized leastsquares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

The normal distribution in some constrained sample spaces

Phenomena with a constrained sample space appear frequently in practice. This is the case e.g. with strictly positive data, or with compositional data, like percentages or proportions. If the natural measure of difference is not the absolute one, simple algebraic properties show that it is more convenient to work with a geometry different from the usual Euclidean geometry in real space, and with a measure different from the usual Lebesgue measure, leading to alternative models which better fit the phenomenon under study. The general approach is presented and illustrated using the normal distribution, both on the positive real line and on the D-part simplex. The original ideas of McAlister in his introduction to the lognormal distribution in 1879, are recovered and updated

The genomic distribution of intraspecific and interspecific sequence divergence of human segmental duplications relative to human/chimpanzee chromosomal rearrangements

Background: It has been suggested that chromosomal rearrangements harbor the molecular footprint of the biological phenomena which they induce, in the form, for instance, of changes in the sequence divergence rates of linked genes. So far, all the studies of these potential associations have focused on the relationship between structural changes and the rates of evolution of single-copy DNA and have tried to exclude segmental duplications (SDs). This is paradoxical, since SDs are one of the primary forces driving the evolution of structure and function in our genomes and have been linked not only with novel genes acquiring new functions, but also with overall higher DNA sequence divergence and major chromosomal rearrangements.Results: Here we take the opposite view and focus on SDs. We analyze several of the features of SDs, including the rates of intraspecific divergence between paralogous copies of human SDs and of interspecific divergence between human SDs and chimpanzee DNA. We study how divergence measures relate to chromosomal rearrangements, while considering other factors that affect evolutionary rates in single copy DNA. Conclusion: We find that interspecific SD divergence behaves similarly to divergence of single-copy DNA. In contrast, old and recent paralogous copies of SDs do present different patterns of intraspecific divergence. Also, we show that some relatively recent SDs accumulate in regions that carry inversions in sister lineages.