Sistema de presa de decisions distribuït

DDM is a framework that combines intelligent agents and artificial intelligence traditional algorithms such as classifiers. The central idea of this project is to create a multi-agent system that allows to compare different views into a single one.

Russian transition in the early 21st century

Tässä tutkimuksessa käsitellään Venäjän talouden kehitystä uudella vuosituhannella. Kylmän sodan aikaan Neuvostoliitto oli suurvalta, jonka asema perustui sotilasmahtiin. Sotateollisuuden konversio palvelemaan nykytarpeita ei ole ollut helppo tehtävä. Vuoden 1998 talouskriisin jälkeen elintaso on toipunut verraten nopeasti, mikä on nähtävissä tarkastellessa kotitalouksien kulutusrakenteita, joita käsitellään tarkemmin luvussa 2. Siirtymätalouksissa vaihtotaseen vajeet ovat yleisiä, mutta luonnonrikkauksiensa ansiosta Venäjän vaihtotaseet ovat olleet huomattavan ylijäämäisiä, mitä pohditaan luvussa 3. Vaihtotaseen ylijäämien heijatusvaikutus on ollut Venäjän rooli pääomien nettoviejänä. Venäjän investointikertymä onedelleen erittäin vaatimaton suhteutettuna maan kehitysvaiheeseen. Jokaisessa menestyksekkäässä taloudessa investoinnit ovat pitkän aikavälintaloudellisen menestyksen avaintekijä. Venäjän erityispiirteitä tähän liittyen on kuvattu luvussa 4. Raportti päättyy talouden nykytilanteen analyysiin (luvut 5 ja 6).

Project Success through Effective Decisions: Case Studies on Project Goal Setting, Success Evaluation and Managerial Decision Making

The objective of the thesis is to structure and model the factors that contribute to and can be used in evaluating project success. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of three research topics. The goal setting process, success evaluation and decision-making process are studied in the context of a project, business unitand its business environment. To achieve the objective three research questionsare posed. These are 1) how to set measurable project goals, 2) how to evaluateproject success and 3) how to affect project success with managerial decisions.The main theoretical contribution comes from deriving a synthesis of these research topics which have mostly been discussed apart from each other in prior research. The research strategy of the study has features from at least the constructive, nomothetical, and decision-oriented research approaches. This strategy guides the theoretical and empirical part of the study. Relevant concepts and a framework are composed on the basis of the prior research contributions within the problem area. A literature review is used to derive constructs of factors withinthe framework. They are related to project goal setting, success evaluation, and decision making. On the basis of this, the case study method is applied to complement the framework. The empirical data includes one product development program, three construction projects, as well as one organization development, hardware/software, and marketing project in their contexts. In two of the case studiesthe analytic hierarchy process is used to formulate a hierarchical model that returns a numerical evaluation of the degree of project success. It has its origin in the solution idea which in turn has its foundation in the notion of projectsuccess. The achieved results are condensed in the form of a process model thatintegrates project goal setting, success evaluation and decision making. The process of project goal setting is analysed as a part of an open system that includes a project, the business unit and its competitive environment. Four main constructs of factors are suggested. First, the project characteristics and requirements are clarified. The second and the third construct comprise the components of client/market segment attractiveness and sources of competitive advantage. Together they determine the competitive position of a business unit. Fourth, the relevant goals and the situation of a business unit are clarified to stress their contribution to the project goals. Empirical evidence is gained on the exploitation of increased knowledge and on the reaction to changes in the business environment during a project to ensure project success. The relevance of a successful project to a company or a business unit tends to increase the higher the reference level of project goals is set. However, normal performance or sometimes performance below this normal level is intentionally accepted. Success measures make project success quantifiable. There are result-oriented, process-oriented and resource-oriented success measures. The study also links result measurements to enablers that portray the key processes. The success measures can be classified into success domains determining the areas on which success is assessed. Empiricalevidence is gained on six success domains: strategy, project implementation, product, stakeholder relationships, learning situation and company functions. However, some project goals, like safety, can be assessed using success measures that belong to two success domains. For example a safety index is used for assessing occupational safety during a project, which is related to project implementation. Product safety requirements, in turn, are connected to the product characteristics and thus to the product-related success domain. Strategic success measures can be used to weave the project phases together. Empirical evidence on their static nature is gained. In order-oriented projects the project phases are oftencontractually divided into different suppliers or contractors. A project from the supplier's perspective can represent only a part of the ¿whole project¿ viewed from the client's perspective. Therefore static success measures are mostly used within the contractually agreed project scope and duration. Proof is also acquired on the dynamic use of operational success measures. They help to focus on the key issues during each project phase. Furthermore, it is shown that the original success domains and success measures, their weights and target values can change dynamically. New success measures can replace the old ones to correspond better with the emphasis of the particular project phase. This adjustment concentrates on the key decision milestones. As a conclusion, the study suggests a combination of static and dynamic success measures. Their linkage to an incentive system can make the project management proactive, enable fast feedback and enhancethe motivation of the personnel. It is argued that the sequence of effective decisions is closely linked to the dynamic control of project success. According to the used definition, effective decisions aim at adequate decision quality and decision implementation. The findings support that project managers construct and use a chain of key decision milestones to evaluate and affect success during aproject. These milestones can be seen as a part of the business processes. Different managers prioritise the key decision milestones to a varying degree. Divergent managerial perspectives, power, responsibilities and involvement during a project offer some explanation for this. Finally, the study introduces the use ofHard Gate and Soft Gate decision milestones. The managers may use the former milestones to provide decision support on result measurements and ad hoc critical conditions. In the latter milestones they may make intermediate success evaluation also on the basis of other types of success measures, like process and resource measures.

Are Evaluation of ICTs Investment Using Decision Support Systems:Case Applications from Distributor's and End User's Perspective Group Decision

The evaluation of investments in advanced technology is one of the most important decision making tasks. The importance is even more pronounced considering the huge budget concerning the strategic, economic and analytic justification in order to shorten design and development time. Choosing the most appropriate technology requires an accurate and reliable system that can lead the decision makers to obtain such a complicated task. Currently, several Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) manufacturers that design global products are seeking local firms to act as their sales and services representatives (called distributors) to the end user. At the same time, the end user or customer is also searching for the best possible deal for their investment in ICT's projects. Therefore, the objective of this research is to present a holistic decision support system to assist the decision maker in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - working either as individual decision makers or in a group - in the evaluation of the investment to become an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user. The model is composed of the Delphi/MAH (Maximising Agreement Heuristic) Analysis, a well-known quantitative method in Group Support System (GSS), which is applied to gather the average ranking data from amongst Decision Makers (DMs). After that the Analytic Network Process (ANP) analysis is brought in to analyse holistically: it performs quantitative and qualitative analysis simultaneously. The illustrative data are obtained from industrial entrepreneurs by using the Group Support System (GSS) laboratory facilities at Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland and in Thailand. The result of the research, which is currently implemented in Thailand, can provide benefits to the industry in the evaluation of becoming an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user, particularly in the assessment of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) programme. After the model is put to test with an in-depth collaboration with industrial entrepreneurs in Finland and Thailand, the sensitivity analysis is also performed to validate the robustness of the model. The contribution of this research is in developing a new approach and the Delphi/MAH software to obtain an analysis of the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user that is flexible and applicable to entrepreneurs, who are looking for the most appropriate investment to become an ERP distributor or end user. The main advantage of this research over others is that the model can deliver the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user in a single number which makes it easier for DMs to choose the most appropriate ERP vendor. The associated advantage is that the model can include qualitative data as well as quantitative data, as the results from using quantitative data alone can be misleading and inadequate. There is a need to utilise quantitative and qualitative analysis together, as can be seen from the case studies.

Centrality and investment strategies at the beginning of industrialisation in mid-nineteenth-century Catalonia

We apply social networks analysis to the study of an important database on investment and companies" share in the Catalonia (Spain) of the nineteenth century. In contrast with most of the existing related literature, usually addressing power relationships across administration boards, we focus on the structure of interactions among individual investors and firms. Centrality analysis uncovers interesting roles played by certain economic sectors (e.g. textile and financial). Furthermore, the diverse composition (in terms of economic activity) of communities in the network (subgroups more densely connected internally than with the rest of the network) reveals a high investment diversification, which nicely agrees with a known characteristic of traditional Catalan business strategies.

Sähköverkkoliiketoimintojen valvontamallit eräissä Euroopan maissa

Sähkömarkkinauudistukset ovat tuoneet kilpailun sähkön tuotantoon ja myyntiin, mutta samalla vahvistaneet tarvetta valvoa sähkönsiirtoa ja -jakelua, jotka ovat ns. luonnollisia monopolitoimintoja. Monopoleja valvotaan, jotta ne eivät väärinkäytä määräävää markkina-asemaansa. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan sähkönjakeluverkkoliiketoiminnan sääntelyyn yleisesti käytettyjä valvontamalleja sekä niiden soveltamisessa huomioon otettavia seikkoja. Tarkasteltuja valvontamalleja on neljä, joista yleisimpiä ovat hintakattosääntely ja liikevaihdon sääntely. Tuoton sääntely on monesti ollut ensimmäinen keino säännellä alaa. Mittatikkusääntelyllä pyritään selvittämään tarkasteltavien yhtiöiden tehokkuutta. Sitä käytetään yleensä muiden mallien lisänä kannustamaan toiminnan tehostamiseen. Yhä useammin valvotaan myös sähköntoimituksen laatua. Jokainen maa valitsee omaan erityistilanteeseensa parhaiten sopivan valvontamallin. Valvontamallit kehittyvät jatkuvasti, jotta asiakkaiden etujen turvaamiseksi on olemassa toimivat regulatiiviset työkalut ja toisaalta sähkönjakeluyhtiöiden toimintaolosuhteet ovat vakaat ja realistiset. Kansallisen regulaattorin on luotava valvontamallin avulla oikeanlaiset kannustimet yhtiöiden toiminnalle, jotta niiden tekemät investointi- ja toimintapäätökset ovat järkeviä ja takaavat sähkönjakelun jatkuvuuden.

External Location Factors of Foreign Direct Investment in Russia – Finnish Perspective

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on selvittää, mitä alueellisia tekijöitä suomalaiset yritykset ottavat huomioon valitessaan sopivaa sijaintia suoralle investoinnille Venäjän sisällä. Muutamia yrityksen sisäisiä tekijöitä käytetään taustamuuttujina selittämään sijaintitekijöiden painotuksissa havaittavia eroja erilaisten yritysten välillä. Venäjän alueita vertaillaan lopuksi painotusten valossa. Työn ensimmäisessä osassa keskitytään suorien ulkomaisten investointien teoreettiseen taustaan. Aiempia tutkimuksia käydään läpi, jotta tekijät, joilla on havaittu olevan vaikutusta investointien sijoittumiseen maan sisällä, saadaan kartoitettua. Työn jälkimmäinen osa perustuu yrityskyselyn avulla kerättyyn empiiriseen aineistoon. Aineiston avulla selvitetään mitä tekijöitä suomalaisyritykset huomioivat sijaintipäätöstä tehdessään. Tulosten valossa on ilmeistä, että alueen markkinapotentiaali on suomalaisyrityksissä tärkein huomioitava tekijä investoinnin sijainnista päätettäessä. Myös infrastruktuuri ja kustannushyödyt vaikuttavat päätökseen. Erityyppisten yritysten painotukset ovat hyvin samanlaisia. Moskova ja Pietari vastaavat Venäjän alueista parhaiten suomalaisyritysten investoinnin sijainnille asettamia kriteerejä.

Quantifying the time for accurate EEG decoding of single value-based decisions.

BACKGROUND: Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that value-based decision-making may rely on mechanisms of evidence accumulation. However no studies have explicitly investigated the time when single decisions are taken based on such an accumulation process. NEW METHOD: Here, we outline a novel electroencephalography (EEG) decoding technique which is based on accumulating the probability of appearance of prototypical voltage topographies and can be used for predicting subjects' decisions. We use this approach for studying the time-course of single decisions, during a task where subjects were asked to compare reward vs. loss points for accepting or rejecting offers. RESULTS: We show that based on this new method, we can accurately decode decisions for the majority of the subjects. The typical time-period for accurate decoding was modulated by task difficulty on a trial-by-trial basis. Typical latencies of when decisions are made were detected at ∼500ms for 'easy' vs. ∼700ms for 'hard' decisions, well before subjects' response (∼340ms). Importantly, this decision time correlated with the drift rates of a diffusion model, evaluated independently at the behavioral level. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD(S): We compare the performance of our algorithm with logistic regression and support vector machine and show that we obtain significant results for a higher number of subjects than with these two approaches. We also carry out analyses at the average event-related potential level, for comparison with previous studies on decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel approach for studying the timing of value-based decision-making, by accumulating patterns of topographic EEG activity at single-trial level.

External Location Factors of Finnish Direct Investment in Central and Eastern European Transitional Economies

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli selvittää suomalaisten suorien investointien maan valintaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan kymmenessä siirtymätaloudessa. Empiirisessä osuudessa tarkasteltiin suomalaisten yritysten tärkeimpiä sijaintitekijöitä alueella ja yrityskohtaisten tekijöiden vaikutusta sijaintitekijöihin. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin myös yritysten päämotiiveja investoida maihin. Laaditun investointikriteeristön mukaan maat pystyttiin laittamaan paremmuusjärjestykseen suomalaisen investoijan kannalta. Empiirisen osuuden aineisto kerättiin postikyselylomakkeella yrityksiltä, joilla on tai jotka ovat suunnittelemassa investointeja näihin maihin. Tutkimusote oli kvantitatiivinen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että suomalaiset investoijat valitsevat Itä- ja Keski-Euroopan maan investointikohteeksi pääasiassa markkinapotentiaalin ja edullisten kustannusten perusteella. Myös infrastruktuuri vaikuttaa maan valintaan. Eri aloilla toimivien yritysten sijaintitekijöiden painotuksissa havaittiin eroja. Yrityksen koko ja päämotiivi vaikuttivat sijaintitekijöiden painotuksiin. Investointikriteereiden mukaan kaksi parasta investointimaata suomalaisille investoijille ovat Puola ja Viro. Vertailtaessa investointikriteereitä toteutuneisiin investointeihin voidaan todeta, että suomalaiset investoijat eivät ole hyödyntäneet investoinneilla saatavia etuja kaikissa kohdemaissa.

Measuring and making decisions for social reciprocity

Social reciprocity may explain certain emerging psychological processes, which are likely to be founded on dyadic relations. Although some indices and statistics have been proposed to measure and make statistical decisions regarding social reciprocity in groups, these were generally developed to identify association patterns rather than to quantify the discrepancies between what each individual addresses to his/her partners and what is received from them in return. Additionally, social researchers are not only interested in measuring groups at the global level, since dyadic and individual measurements are also necessary for a proper description of social interactions. This study is concerned with a new statistic for measuring social reciprocity at the global level and with decomposing it in order to identify those dyads and individuals which account for a significant part of asymmetry in social interactions. In addition to a set of indices some exact analytical results are derived and a way of making statistical decisions is proposed.

Web Software Engineering - value added approach

Taking the maximum advantage of technological innovations and the investment in them is of key importance for businesses. The IT industry offers a wide range of innovative high-technology solutions to manage information processing and distribution. However for end-user businesses to make informed decisions in this area is challenging. The aim of this research is to identify the key differences in principal solutions, and what the selection criteria should be for those involved. Existing methodologies for software development are classified, and some key criteria are described to help IT system developers and users determine what are the most important factors in system selection, development and deployment. Statistical data is researched and analysed, a theoretical basis is developed and reviewed, key issues from case studies are identified and generalized to be presented along with the conclusions in the current study. The results give a good basis for corporate consideration and provide overall support to the key decisions in developing web-based software. The conclusion is that new web developments should be considered the stakeholders as an evolution of existing business systems, but they should then pay particular attention to the new advantages that web-based software offers in terms of standardised interfaces and procedures, universal deployment opportunities, and a range of other benefits the study highlights.

OKO:n luottoriskiluokitus: tunnuslukumallin kehittäminen suomalaisyritysten arviointiin

Pro gradu -tutkielma keskittyy OKO:n yritysasiakkaiden luottoriskiluokituksessa käyttämään tunnuslukumalliin. Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia, miten suomalaisyritysaineistosta johdettu tunnuslukumalli luokittelee yrityksiä eri tavalla OKO:n nykyiseen malliin verrattuna. Tutkielma rakentuu kirjallisuuteen perustuvasta teoreettisesta viitekehyksestä sekä varsinaisesta empiirisestä tutkimuksesta. Tutkimuksessa käytetään kvantitatiivisia tutkimusmetodeja, joissa aineiston tarkastelun avulla pyritään tekemään järkeistettyjä päätöksiä. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu 4889 tilinpäätöksestä vuosilta 1991-2001, jotka on saatu Etlan 500 suurimman suomalaisyrityksen tilinpäätöstietokannasta. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan suomalaisyritysten tunnuslukujen jakautumista viidellä toimialalla sekä kahdessa ajanjaksossa. Toimialakohtaisista tunnuslukujakaumista johdetaan uuden mallin tunnuslukukohtaiset luokkarajat. Uusien luokkarajojen voidaan todeta olevan tunnusluvusta riippuen joko korkeammat tai matalammat kuin nykyisen yhdysvaltalaisaineistoon pohjautuvan tunnuslukumallin luokkarajat. Uuden ja nykyisen tunnuslukumallin antamia luokituksia verrataan 51 case-yrityksen avulla. Tutkimus osoittaa, että uusi tunnuslukumalli luokittelee yrityksiä pääasiassa parempiin tai samoihin luottoriskiluokkiin kuin nykyinen malli. Luokitusmuutoksia esiintyy useammin spekulatiivisen tason yrityksillä kuin investointitason yrityksillä