Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

The SPHERE Study: Secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: protocol of a randomised controlled trial of tailored practice and patient care plans with parallel qualitative, economic and policy analyses. [ISRCTN24081411]

Background: The aim of the SPHERE study is to design, implement and evaluate tailored practice and personal care plans to improve the process of care and objective clinical outcomes for patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) in general practice across two different health systems on the island of Ireland.CHD is a common cause of death and a significant cause of morbidity in Ireland. Secondary prevention has been recommended as a key strategy for reducing levels of CHD mortality and general practice has been highlighted as an ideal setting for secondary prevention initiatives. Current indications suggest that there is considerable room for improvement in the provision of secondary prevention for patients with established heart disease on the island of Ireland. The review literature recommends structured programmes with continued support and follow-up of patients; the provision of training, tailored to practice needs of access to evidence of effectiveness of secondary prevention; structured recall programmes that also take account of individual practice needs; and patient-centred consultations accompanied by attention to disease management guidelines.

Methods: SPHERE is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with practice-level randomisation to intervention and control groups, recruiting 960 patients from 48 practices in three study centres (Belfast, Dublin and Galway). Primary outcomes are blood pressure, total cholesterol, physical and mental health status (SF-12) and hospital re-admissions. The intervention takes place over two years and data is collected at baseline, one-year and two-year follow-up. Data is obtained from medical charts, consultations with practitioners, and patient postal questionnaires. The SPHERE intervention involves the implementation of a structured systematic programme of care for patients with CHD attending general practice. It is a multi-faceted intervention that has been developed to respond to barriers and solutions to optimal secondary prevention identified in preliminary qualitative research with practitioners and patients. General practitioners and practice nurses attend training sessions in facilitating behaviour change and medication prescribing guidelines for secondary prevention of CHD. Patients are invited to attend regular four-monthly consultations over two years, during which targets and goals for secondary prevention are set and reviewed. The analysis will be strengthened by economic, policy and qualitative components.

HOME-BASED REHABILITATION AND ITS IMPACT ON HOSPITAL UTILIZATION

There is compelling evidence for the effectiveness of home-based occupational therapy and physiotherapy rehabilitation for community dwelling elderly who may struggle with basic activities and the functions of daily living and mobility. Nonetheless, an estimated 2% of home care’s elderly clients receive these therapies. Ontario’s home care data indicates that 78% of clients that could benefit from these specific therapies are not receiving them. The study examined a subset of elderly clients receiving home care following a hospital discharge during 2009-2010. The aim of this study was to: understand the difference between those home care clients who received occupational therapy or physiotherapy and those who did not; and determine if receiving these therapies impacted the utilization of hospital emergency departments and inpatient admissions. A retrospective cohort design and multivariate and survival analysis of hospital and home care administrative data structured the study. Results suggest that home-based rehabilitation is offered to a minority of the home care population. Distinct client characteristics and process variables significantly associated with the increased likelihood of receiving home-based occupational and physical therapies included: clients who were older, females, admitted to home care from hospital inpatient units, assessed as non-acute for clinical and service needs and required more home making support and assistance with activities of daily living. Almost one quarter of the total sample returned to hospital. Visits to emergency departments accounted for the greater part of hospital utilization and primarily for sub-acute general symptoms and signs, post-procedural complications, infections or acute episodes from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and renal failure. Slightly over half of the clients returning to hospital did not receive home-based rehabilitation. Clients who received occupational therapy returned to the hospital sooner following their home care admission whereas clients receiving physiotherapy spent the longest time before rehospitalizing. The majority of the clients receiving occupational therapy were admitted to home care having just resolved sub-acute conditions or symptoms, many of which are known to influence functional and physical decline. Moreover, analysis of process variables indicated that the wait time for a referral to occupational therapy was two times longer compared to physiotherapy. These same clients also waited, on average, over one month before an occupational therapist’s first visit. The need to discriminate who receives home-based rehabilitation is essential to understanding how specific therapies contribute to improving systems outcomes. This study is the first examination that focuses specifically on home-based occupational therapy and physiotherapy rehabilitation and the client characteristics and process variables associated with receiving/not receiving these therapies and the impact these factors have on the time-to-rehospitalization.