An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Tripleclouds: an efficient method for representing horizontal cloud inhomogeneity in 1D radiation schemes by using three regions at each height

Radiation schemes in general circulation models currently make a number of simplifications when accounting for clouds, one of the most important being the removal of horizontal inhomogeneity. A new scheme is presented that attempts to account for the neglected inhomogeneity by using two regions of cloud in each vertical level of the model as opposed to one. One of these regions is used to represent the optically thinner cloud in the level, and the other represents the optically thicker cloud. So, along with the clear-sky region, the scheme has three regions in each model level and is referred to as “Tripleclouds.” In addition, the scheme has the capability to represent arbitrary vertical overlap between the three regions in pairs of adjacent levels. This scheme is implemented in the Edwards–Slingo radiation code and tested on 250 h of data from 12 different days. The data are derived from cloud retrievals using radar, lidar, and a microwave radiometer at Chilbolton, southern United Kingdom. When the data are grouped into periods equivalent in size to general circulation model grid boxes, the shortwave plane-parallel albedo bias is found to be 8%, while the corresponding bias is found to be less than 1% using Tripleclouds. Similar results are found for the longwave biases. Tripleclouds is then compared to a more conventional method of accounting for inhomogeneity that multiplies optical depths by a constant scaling factor, and Tripleclouds is seen to improve on this method both in terms of top-of-atmosphere radiative flux biases and internal heating rates.

Stratospheric communication of El Nino teleconnections to European winter

The stratospheric role in the European winter surface climate response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature forcing is investigated using an intermediate general circulation model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Under El Niño conditions, both the modeled tropospheric and stratospheric mean-state circulation changes correspond well to the observed “canonical” responses of a late winter negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a strongly weakened polar vortex, respectively. The variability of the polar vortex is modulated by an increase in frequency of stratospheric sudden warming events throughout all winter months. The potential role of this stratospheric response in the tropical Pacific–European teleconnection is investigated by sensitivity experiments in which the mean state and variability of the stratosphere are degraded. As a result, the observed stratospheric response to El Niño is suppressed and the mean sea level pressure response fails to resemble the temporal and spatial evolution of the observations. The results suggest that the stratosphere plays an active role in the European response to El Niño. A saturation mechanism whereby for the strongest El Niño events tropospheric forcing dominates the European response is suggested. This is examined by means of a sensitivity test and it is shown that under large El Niño forcing the European response is insensitive to stratospheric representation.

Can the dynamical impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere be described by large-scale adjustment to the stratospheric PV distribution?

Recent numerical experiments have demonstrated that the state of the stratosphere has a dynamical impact on the state of the troposphere. To account for such an effect, a number of mechanisms have been proposed in the literature, all of which amount to a large-scale adjustment of the troposphere to potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the stratosphere. This paper analyses whether a simple PV adjustment suffices to explain the actual dynamical response of the troposphere to the state of the stratosphere, the actual response being determined by ensembles of numerical experiments run with an atmospheric general-circulation model. For this purpose, a new PV inverter is developed. It is shown that the simple PV adjustment hypothesis is inadequate. PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce, by inversion, flow anomalies in the troposphere that do not coincide spatially with the tropospheric changes determined by the numerical experiments. Moreover, the tropospheric anomalies induced by PV inversion are on a larger scale than the changes found in the numerical experiments, which are linked to the Atlantic and Pacific storm-tracks. These findings imply that the impact of the stratospheric state on the troposphere is manifested through the impact on individual synoptic-scale systems and their self-organization in the storm-tracks. Changes in these weather systems in the troposphere are not merely synoptic-scale noise on a larger scale tropospheric response, but an integral part of the mechanism by which the state of the stratosphere impacts that of the troposphere.

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM - sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Effect of ENSO phase on large-scale snow water equivalent distribution in a GCM

Understanding links between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and snow would be useful for seasonal forecasting, but also for understanding natural variability and interpreting climate change predictions. Here, a 545-year run of the general circulation model HadCM3, with prescribed external forcings and fixed greenhouse gas concentrations, is used to explore the impact of ENSO on snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies. In North America, positive ENSO events reduce the mean SWE and skew the distribution towards lower values, and vice versa during negative ENSO events. This is associated with a dipole SWE anomaly structure, with anomalies of opposite sign centered in western Canada and the central United States. In Eurasia, warm episodes lead to a more positively skewed distribution and the mean SWE is raised. Again, the opposite effect is seen during cold episodes. In Eurasia the largest anomalies are concentrated in the Himalayas. These correlations with February SWE distribution are seen to exist from the previous June-July-August (JJA) ENSO index onwards, and are weakly detected in 50-year subsections of the control run, but only a shifted North American response can be detected in the anaylsis of 40 years of ERA40 reanalysis data. The ENSO signal in SWE from the long run could still contribute to regional predictions although it would be a weak indicator only

A study of the sensitivity of ocean overturning circulation and climate to freshwater input in different regions of the North Atlantic

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. Models indicate that the AMOC can be perturbed by freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the dependence of such a perturbation of the AMOC, and the consequent climate change, on the region of freshwater forcing. A wide range of changes in AMOC strength is found after 100 years of freshwater forcing. The largest changes in AMOC strength occur when the regions of deepwater formation in the model are forced directly, although reductions in deepwater formation in one area may be compensated by enhanced formation elsewhere. North Atlantic average surface air temperatures correlate linearly with the AMOC decline, but warming may occur in localised regions, notably over Greenland and where deepwater formation is enhanced. This brings into question the representativeness of temperature changes inferred from Greenland ice-core records.

The role of mean ocean salinity in climate

We describe numerical simulations designed to elucidate the role of mean ocean salinity in climate. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, we study a 100-year sensitivity experiment in which the global-mean salinity is approximately doubled from its present observed value, by adding 35 psu everywhere in the ocean. The salinity increase produces a rapid global-mean sea-surface warming of C within a few years, caused by reduced vertical mixing associated with changes in cabbeling. The warming is followed by a gradual global-mean sea-surface cooling of C within a few decades, caused by an increase in the vertical (downward) component of the isopycnal diffusive heat flux. We find no evidence of impacts on the variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mean strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is reduced by 20% and the North Atlantic Deep Water penetrates less deeply. Nevertheless, our results dispute claims that higher salinities for the world ocean have profound consequences for the thermohaline circulation. In additional experiments with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, we find that the amplitude and spatial pattern of the global warming signal are modified in the hypersaline ocean. In particular, the equilibrated global-mean sea-surface temperature increase caused by doubling carbon dioxide is reduced by 10%. We infer the existence of a non-linear interaction between the climate responses to modified carbon dioxide and modified salinity.

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Magnitude of climate variability during middle Pliocene warmth: a palaeoclimate modelling study

The nature and magnitude of climatic variability during the period of middle Pliocene warmth (ca 3.29–2.97 Ma) is poorly understood. We present a suite of palaeoclimate modelling experiments incorporating an advanced atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a Q-flux ocean model for 3.29, 3.12 and 2.97 Ma BP. Astronomical solutions for the periods in question were derived from the Berger and Loutre BL2 astronomical solution. Boundary conditions, excluding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which were predicted by the slab-ocean model, were provided from the USGS PRISM2 2°×2° digital data set. The model results indicate that little annual variation (0.5°C) in SSTs, relative to a ‘control’ experiment, occurred during the middle Pliocene in response to the altered orbital configurations. Annual surface air temperatures also displayed little variation. Seasonally, surface air temperatures displayed a trend of cooler temperatures during December, January and February, and warmer temperatures during June, July and August. This pattern is consistent with altered seasonality resulting from the prescribed orbital configurations. Precipitation changes follow the seasonal trend observed for surface air temperature. Compared to present-day, surface wind strength and wind stress over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean remained greater in each of the Pliocene experiments. This suggests that wind-driven gyral circulation may have been consistently greater during the middle Pliocene. The trend of climatic variability predicted by the GCM for the middle Pliocene accords with geological data. However, it is unclear if the model correctly simulates the magnitude of the variation. This uncertainty is derived from, (a) the relative insensitivity of the GCM to perturbation in the imposed boundary conditions, (b) a lack of detailed time series data concerning changes to terrestrial ice cover and greenhouse gas concentrations for the middle Pliocene and (c) difficulties in representing the effects of ‘climatic history’ in snap-shot GCM experiments.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Kenya between 1990 and 2030

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Non-Annex 1 countries such as Kenya are obliged to report green house gas (GHG) emissions from all sources where possible, including those from soils as a result of changes in land use or land management. At present, the convention encourages countries to estimate emissions using the most advanced methods possible, given the country circumstances and resources. Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes were made for Kenya using the Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. The tool conducts analysis using three methods: (1) the Century general ecosystem model; (2) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (3) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. The required datasets included: land use history, monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all the agro-climatic zones of Kenya and historical vegetation cover. Soil C stocks of 1.4-2.0 Pg (0-20 cm), compared well with a Soil and Terrain (SOTER) based approach that estimated similar to .8-2.0 Pg (0-30 cm). In 1990 48% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 20% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1), whereas in 2000 56% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 31% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1). Conversion of natural vegetation to annual crops led to the greatest soil C losses. Simulations suggest that soil C losses remain substantial throughout the modelling period of 1990-2030. All three methods involved in the GEFSOC System estimated that there would be a net loss of soil C between 2000 and 2030 in Kenya. The decline was more marked with RothC than with Century or the IPCC method. In non-hydric soils the SOC change rates were more pronounced in high sandy soils compared to high clay soils in most land use systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.