A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Free energy approximations in simple lattice proteins

This work addresses the question of whether it is possible to define simple pairwise interaction terms to approximate free energies of proteins or polymers. Rather than ask how reliable a potential of mean force is, one can ask how reliable it could possibly be. In a two-dimensional, infinite lattice model system one can calculate exact free energies by exhaustive enumeration. A series of approximations were fitted to exact results to assess the feasibility and utility of pairwise free energy terms. Approximating the true free energy with pairwise interactions gives a poor fit with little transferability between systems of different size. Adding extra artificial terms to the approximation yields better fits, but does not improve the ability to generalize from one system size to another. Furthermore, one cannot distinguish folding from nonfolding sequences via the approximated free energies. Most usefully, the methodology shows how one can assess the utility of various terms in lattice protein/polymer models. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

Transfer matrix eigenvalues of the anisotropic multiparametric U model

A multiparametric extension of the anisotropic U model is discussed which maintains integrability. The R-matrix solving the Yang-Baxter equation is obtained through a twisting construction applied to the underlying U-q(sl (2/1)) superalgebraic structure which introduces the additional free parameters that arise in the model. Three forms of Bethe ansatz solution for the transfer matrix eigenvalues are given which we show to be equivalent.

Similitude applied to centrifugal scaling of unsaturated flow

Centrifuge experiments modeling single-phase flow in prototype porous media typically use the same porous medium and permeant. Then, well-known scaling laws are used to transfer the results to the prototype. More general scaling laws that relax these restrictions are presented. For permeants that are immiscible with an accompanying gas phase, model-prototype (i.e., centrifuge model experiment-target system) scaling is demonstrated. Scaling is shown to be feasible for Miller-similar (or geometrically similar) media. Scalings are presented for a more, general class, Lisle-similar media, based on the equivalence mapping of Richards' equation onto itself. Whereas model-prototype scaling of Miller-similar media can be realized easily for arbitrary boundary conditions, Lisle-similarity in a finite length medium generally, but not always, involves a mapping to a moving boundary problem. An exception occurs for redistribution in Lisle-similar porous media, which is shown to map to spatially fixed boundary conditions. Complete model-prototype scalings for this example are derived.

Anisotropic convection model for the earth's mantle

The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

Tetra-crowned porphyrin as P450 biomimetic model for carbamazepine oxidation

A substituted porphyrin bearing four crown ether units, H(2)(TCP), was synthesized from the reaction between (5,10,15,20-tetra(o-aminophenyl) porphyrin) and the acyl derivative of the ether (4-carboxy-18-crown-6). The free-base porphyrin was characterized by C, N, and H elemental analysis; UV-vis and IR spectroscopies; and (1)H NMR. The corresponding ironporphyrin, Fe(TCP)Cl, was obtained via iron insertion into H(2)(TCP). Fe(TCP)Cl was employed as catalyst for carbamazepine (CBZ) oxidation by iodosylbenzene (PhIO), 3-chloroperoxybenzoic acid (m-CPBA) or sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl), in methanol or in a biphasic water/dichloroethane system. The crowned ironporphyrin proved to be a highly efficient and selective catalyst for CBZ epoxidation even in the biphasic dichloroethane /H(2)O system, with no need for an additional phase transfer agent.

Stabilization of native protein fold by intein-mediated covalent cyclization

A mutant version of the N-terminal domain of Escherichia coli DnaB helicase was used as a model system to assess the stabilization against unfolding gained by covalent cyclization. Cyclization was achieved in vivo by formation of an amide bond between the N and C termini with the help of a split mini-intein. Linear and circular proteins were constructed to be identical in amino acid sequence. Mutagenesis of Phe102 to Glu rendered the protein monomeric even at high concentration. A difference in free energy of unfolding, DeltaDeltaG, between circular and linear protein of 2.3(+/-0.5) kcal mol(-1) was measured at 10degreesC by circular dichroism. A theoretical estimate of the difference in conformational entropy of linear and circular random chains in a three-dimensional cubic lattice model predicted DeltaDeltaG = 2.3 kcal mol(-1), suggesting that stabilization by protein cyclization is driven by the reduced conformational entropy of the unfolded state. Amide-proton exchange rates measured by NMR spectroscopy and mass spectrometry showed a uniform, approximately tenfold decrease of the exchange rates of the most slowly exchanging amide protons, demonstrating that cyclization globally decreases the unfolding rate of the protein. The amide proton exchange was found to follow EX1 kinetics at near-neutral pH, in agreement with an unusually slow refolding I measured by stopped-flow circular dichroism. rate of less than 4 min(-1) The linear and circular proteins differed more in their unfolding than in their folding rates. Global unfolding of the N-terminal domain of E. coli DnaB is thus promoted strongly by spatial separation of the N and C termini, whereas their proximity is much less important for folding. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developmental vitamin D deficiency alters adult behaviour: An informative animal model of schizophrenia

Background: There is growing evidence that vitamin D is active in the brain but until recently there was a lack of evidence about its role during brain development. Guided by certain features of the epidemiology of schizophrenia, we have explored the role of vitamin D in the developing brain and behaviour using whole animal models. Methods: Sprague-Dawley rats were fed a vitamin D deficient diet (DVD) or control diet 6 weeks prior to mating and housed under UVB-free lighting conditions. On the day of birth all rats were fed a control diet for the remainder of the study. We observed behaviour at two timepoints; on the day of birth to study maternal behaviour, and at 10 weeks of age to study offspring behaviour in adulthood, under baseline and drug induced conditions (MK-801, haloperidol, amphetamine). Results: Prenatal vitamin D deficiency results in subtle alterations in maternal behaviour as well as long lasting effects on the adult offspring, despite a return to normal vitamin D levels during postnatal life. These affects were specific to transient prenatal vitamin D depletion as adult vitamin D depletion, combined prenatal and chronic postnatal vitamin D depletion, or ablation of the vitamin D receptor in mice led to markedly different outcomes. Conclusions: The developmental vitamin D (DVD) model now draws strength from epidemiological evidence of schizophrenia and animal experiments. Although the DVD model does not replicate every aspect of schizophrenia, it has several attractive features: (1) the exposure is based on clues from epidemiology; (2) it reproduces the increase in lateral ventricles; (3) it reproduces well-regarded behavioural phenotypes associated with schizophrenia (e.g. MK- 801 induced hyperlocomotion); and (4) it implicates a disturbance in dopamine signaling. In summary, low prenatal levels of vitamin D can influence critical components of orderly brain development and that this has a long lasting effect on behaviour.

Numerical simulation of double-diffusion driven convective flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones

Numerical methods are used to simulate the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones. The double diffusion is caused by a combination of both the positive upward temperature gradient and the positive downward salinity concentration gradient within a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone, which is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In order to ensure the physical meaningfulness of the obtained numerical solutions, the numerical method used in this study is validated by a benchmark problem, for which the analytical solution to the critical Rayleigh number of the system is available. The theoretical value of the critical Rayleigh number of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system can be used to judge whether or not the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow can take place within the system. After the possibility of triggering the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow is theoretically validated for the numerical model of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system, the corresponding numerical solutions for the convective flow and temperature are directly coupled with a geochemical system. Through the numerical simulation of the coupled system between the convective fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transport and chemical reactions, we have investigated the effect of the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow on the rock alteration, which is the direct consequence of mineral redistribution due to its dissolution, transportation and precipitation, within the three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Algebraic Bethe ansatz for the anisotropic supersymmetric U model

We present an algebraic Bethe ansatz for the anisotropic supersymmetric U model for correlated electrons on the unrestricted 4(L)-dimensional electronic Hilbert space x(n=l)(L)C(4)(where L is the lattice length). The supersymmetry algebra of the local Hamiltonian is the quantum superalgebra U-q[gl(2\1)] and the model contains two symmetry-preserving free real parameters; the quantization parameter q and the Hubbard interaction parameter U. The parameter U arises from the one-parameter family of inequivalent typical four-dimensional irreps of U-q[gl(2\1)]. Eigenstates of the model are determined by the algebraic Bethe ansatz on a one-dimensional periodic lattice.

Effect of IIb-IIIa Glycoprotein Inhibitors in a Partial Limb Amputation Model Submitted to Warm Ischemia in Rats

Viability and functional results of a segment replantation depend on the prevention of deleterious effects of ischemia. Prolonged ischemia leads to alterations in the microcirculation: thrombosis, edema, production of oxygen free radicals, and platelet aggregation. The effect of IIb-IIIa glycoprotein inhibitors was tested in a partial limb amputation model submitted to warm ischemia. The male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: G1 with 0 hours of ischemia and saline (n = 20), G2 with 6 hours of ischemia and saline (n = 24), G3 with 6 hours of ischemia and abciximab (n = 23), and G4 with 6 hours of ischemia and tirofiban (n = 29). The limbs were observed for 7 days and classified as viable or nonviable. Viability, and mortality rates were obtained and analyzed by Q-square and Fisher exact tests (p < 0.05). The viability rates were 100% (G1), 30% (G2), 77.78% (G3), and 80.95% (G4). G2 was statistically different from G1, G3, and G4. G1, G3, and G4 were not statistically different. Transoperative and postoperative mortalities were not statistically different. The administration of abciximab and tirofiban improved limb salvage after ischemia and reperfusion and did not modify mortality rates significantly.

Low Hematocrit Levels Increase Intracranial Pressure in an Animal Model of Cryogenic Brain Injury

Background: Brain injury is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality in trauma patients, but controversy still exists over optimal fluid management for these patients. This study aimed to investigate the effects of acute hemodilution with hydroxyethyl starch (HES) or lactated Ringer`s solution (LR) in intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) in dogs submitted to a cryogenic brain injury model. Methods: Design-Prospective laboratory animal study. Setting-Research laboratory in a teaching hospital. Subjects-Thirty-five male mongrel dogs. Interventions-Animals were enrolled to five groups: control, hemodilution with LR or HES 6% to an hematocrit target of 27% or 35%. Results: ICP and CPP levels were measured after cryogenic brain injury. Hemodilution promotes an increment of ICP levels, which decreases CPP when hematocrit target was estimated in 27.% after hemodilution. However, no differences were observed regarding crystalloid or colloid solution used for hemodilution in ICP and CPP levels. Conclusions: Hemodilution to a low hematocrit level increases ICP and decreases CPP scores in dogs submitted to a cryogenic brain injury. These results suggest that excessive hemodilution to a hematocrit below 30% should be avoided in traumatic brain injury patients.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

Mesenchymal Stem Cells Delivered at the Subcapsule of the Kidney Ameliorate Renal Disease in the Rat Remnant Kidney Model

Stem cells (SC) are potential therapeutic tools in the treatment of chronic renal diseases. Number and engraftment of SC in the injured sites are important for possible differentiation into renal cells and paracrine effect. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of subcapsular injection of mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) in the 5/6 nephrectomy model (5/6 Nx). MSC obtained from Wistar rats were isolated by their capacity to adhere to plastic surfaces, characterized by flow cytometry, and analyzed by their differentiation potential into osteoblasts. MSC (2 X 105) were injected into the subcapsule of the remnant kidney of male Wistar rats, and were followed for 15 or 30 days. 5/6 Nx rats showed significant hypertension at 15 and 30 days, which was reduced by MSC at 30 days. Increased albuminuria and serum creatinine at 15 and 30 days in 5/6 Nx rats were also reduced by subcapsular injection of MSC. We also observed a significant reduction of glomerulosclerosis index 30 days after injection of MSC. 4-6 diamidino-2-phenylindole dihydrochloride (DAPI)-stained MSC showed a migration of these cells into renal parenchyma 5, 15, and 30 days after subcapsular injection. In conclusion, our data demonstrated that subcapsular injection of MSC in 5/6 Nx rats is associated with renoprotective effects. These results suggest that locally implanted MSC in the kidney allow a large number of cells to migrate into the injured sites and demonstrate that subcapsular injection represent an effective route for MSC delivery.

Numerical modelling of tide-induced beach water table fluctuations

Field studies have shown that the elevation of the beach groundwater table varies with the tide and such variations affect significantly beach erosion or accretion. In this paper, we present a BEM (Boundary Element Method) model for simulating the tidal fluctuation of the beach groundwater table. The model solves the two-dimensional flow equation subject to free and moving boundary conditions, including the seepage dynamics at the beach face. The simulated seepage faces were found to agree with the predictions of a simple model (Turner, 1993). The advantage of the present model is, however, that it can be used with little modification to simulate more complicated cases, e.g., surface recharge from rainfall and drainage in the aquifer may be included (the latter is related to beach dewatering technique). The model also simulated well the field data of Nielsen (1990). In particular, the model replicated three distinct features of local water table fluctuations: steep rising phase versus flat falling phase, amplitude attenuation and phase lagging.