Effects of time since fire on birds : how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (>20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (<5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (>20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.

The influence of unburnt patches and distance from refuges on post-fire bird communities

Predicting the response of faunal communities to fire presents a challenge for land managers worldwide because the post-fire responses of species may vary between locations and fire events. Post-fire recovery can occur via nucleated recovery from in situ surviving populations or by colonization from ex situ populations. Fine-scale spatial patterns in the patchiness of fires and the proximity of burnt sites to source populations may contribute to both the variability in post-fire responses and the processes by which populations recover. We examined the avifauna at recently burnt sites within extensive semi-arid shrublands of south-eastern Australia, including 72 sites < 5 years since fire and 26 sites 10 years since fire. Study sites represented a gradient of increasing distance from ‘unburnt’ vegetation (i.e. > 27 years since fire) and varied in the presence or absence of small (25–900 m2) unburnt patches of vegetation. For sites < 5 years since fire, species richness was higher at sites closer to unburnt vegetation and at sites containing unburnt patches. These patterns were no longer evident at sites of 10 years since fire. The probability of occurrence of three of seven bird species modelled decreased with increasing distance to unburnt vegetation, but this pattern was evident only at sites burnt uniformly. One species was found almost exclusively at patchily burnt sites. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that proximity to unburnt vegetation enhances post-fire occupancy, and that colonization from ex situ populations is an important process for post-fire recovery of avifauna. Additionally, small unburnt patches enhance the rapid recovery of assemblages post-fire. These patterns are important for understanding the dynamics of post-fire population recovery. We recommend that management of fire for ecological purposes should explicitly consider the role that the spatial attributes of fires play in determining the post-fire community.

Examination of the effect of mental reinstatement of context acress developmental level, retention interval and type of mnemonic instruction

The effect of mental reinstatement of context was examined using a 4*5*2 factorial design incorporating four age groups (6-year-olds, 8-year-olds, 11-year-olds and adults), two retention intervals (1 day and 2 weeks after the stimulus event) and five interview conditions. The interview conditions included; free recall, mental reinstatement-environment (where the setting was reinstated but no event-related detail was provided in the mnemonic instruction), mental reinstatement-event (where specific event-related content was provided), mental reinstatement-combined (a combination of the two above-mentioned methods) and specific questions. Overall, mental reinstatement (irrespective of the type) was found to enhance correct recall performance compared to free recall and (unlike specific questions) it did not lead to greater number of commission errors. Contrary to our initial predictions, however, there was no evidence of any special benefit of mental reinstatement for children and the effect of the technique did not vary consistently as a function of retention interval.

SAS macros for point and interval estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models

Aims and objectives  For prediction of risk of cardiovascular end points using survival models the proportional hazards assumption is often not met. Thus, non-proportional hazards models are more appropriate for developing risk prediction equations in such situations. However, computer program for evaluating the prediction performance of such models has been rarely addressed. We therefore developed SAS macro programs for evaluating the discriminative ability of a non-proportional hazards Weibull model developed by Anderson (1991) and that of a proportional hazards Weibull model using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Method  Two SAS macro programs for non-proportional hazards Weibull model using Proc NLIN and Proc NLP respectively and model validation using area under ROC curve (with its confidence limits) were written with SAS IML language. A similar SAS macro for proportional hazards Weibull model was also written.

Results  The computer program was applied to data on coronary heart disease incidence for a Framingham population cohort. The five risk factors considered were current smoking, age, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity. The predictive ability of the non-proportional hazard Weibull model was slightly higher than that of its proportional hazard counterpart. An advantage of SAS Proc NLP in terms of the example provided here is that it provides significance level for the parameter estimates whereas Proc NLIN does not.

Conclusion  The program is very useful for evaluating the predictive performance of non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models.

Influence of the blink interval on tear meniscus height in soft contact lens and nonlens wearers

Purpose: Tear meniscus height (TMH) is an indirect measurement of tear film volume. This study investigated the temporal changes in the TMH during the blink interval in the morning (8–9 am) and at the end of the day (5–6 pm) in both soft contact lens (CL) and nonlens wearers (NLW).

Methods: Fifty participants (25 CL; 25 NLW) were evaluated for their subjective symptoms, TMH, noninvasive break up time, and bulbar hyperemia at the am and pm visits on the same day. The TMH was measured at set intervals between 2 and 15 sec during the blink interval, using an optical coherence tomographer.

Results: The NLW group revealed no changes in a variety of symptoms during the day, whereas the CL group reported an increase in dryness (P=0.03) and grittiness (P=0.02) over the day. For both groups, the TMH and calculated tear meniscus volume revealed lower values immediately after the blink and increased progressively afterwards, mainly due to reflex tearing. The am tear meniscus volume values tended to be higher than the pm values for both groups, but this was not significant (NLW P=0.13; CL P=0.82). Noninvasive break up time deteriorated during the day for both groups but was only significant for the CL group (P=0.002), whereas bulbar hyperemia revealed no statistically significant change for either group.

Conclusions: Reflex tearing may play a substantial role in the TMH differences observed over the blink interval. Standardization of the time when a TMH measurement is performed will be valuable in comparing tear film clinical studies.

Return to pre-injury health status and function 12 months after hospitalisation for sport and active recreation related orthopaedic injury

Background Hospitalised sport and active recreation injuries can have serious long-term consequences. Despite this, few studies have examined the long-term outcomes of these injuries. The purpose of this study was to establish whether patients hospitalised with orthopaedic sport and active recreation injuries, have returned to their pre-injury levels of health status and function, 12 months post injury and identify factors associated with poor outcomes. The present work was a cohort study with retrospective assessment of pre-injury status and prospective assessment of outcome at 12 months post injury.

Methods Adults with orthopaedic sport and active recreation injuries, captured by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry were recruited to the study. Pre-injury and 12-month outcomes were assessed using the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and the extended Glasgow Outcome Scale. Differences in pre-injury and post-injury SF-36 scores were examined and demographic, injury, hospital and physical activity variables were assessed for associations with outcome using multivariate linear regression.

Results Of the 324 participants 98% were followed-up at 12 months post injury. At 12 months, participants reported a mean 7.0-point reduction in physical health (95% CI 5.8 to 7.8) and a 2.5-point reduction in mental health (95% CI 1.2 to 3.0), with 58% (95% CI 52.6% to 63.4%) reporting reduced function. Sporting group (p=0.001), Injury Severity Score >15 (p=0.007) and high pre-injury vigorous activity levels (p=0.04), were related to poorer physical health outcomes.

Conclusions At 12 months post injury, most participants reported large reductions in physical health and reduced function. This information is important for furthering our understanding of the burden of sport and active recreation injury and setting priorities for treatment and rehabilitation.

Monumental vision : a confrontation with the image of the Eternal Return

"Monumental Vision” is a nuanced summary of Nietzschean nihilism and the Eternal Return as rite of passage for free subjects and as condensed image of speculative intelligence proper. Utilizing Gerhard Richter’s “Sheet 692” from Atlas, a series of photographs of the mountains and lake at Sils Maria, Switzerland, as summary judgment of the limit imposed by this condition on all systems of representation, this form of vision discloses the chiasmus embedded in consciousness itself. In constantly revisiting Sils, the very location where Nietzsche “suffered” the vision of the Eternal Return, Richter has engaged repeatedly this origin for what has come into his work via Nietzsche – that is, an elective veil that refuses all compromises with transcendence until such is merged with immanence.

As situated amidst modernist “ideology as intellection”, and subsequent nascent forms of anti-modernism, the Eternal Return as image also signals the return of the Kantian “aesthetic-teleological” synthesis in non-discursive or purely visual agency. As an elective form of aesthetic vision, and as image of time insofar as it registers an overwhelming externality (Other) that nominally swallows and empowers the subject at once, this excoriating sense of universal praxis underwrites artistic and architectural production of the highest order, renegotiating concepts of the paradigmatic.

Utilizing Georg Simmel’s late work on Rembrandt (1916) and his encounter with Schopenhauer and Nietzsche (1907), the essay suggests that by the 1920s the avant-garde premises of modernism had already come under attack by an ahistorical and synoptic vision here denoted “monumental vision,” which also contains the imprint of eschatological time (invoking a schism present in rationality as such). The two readings of this image perpetrated by Karl Löwith in Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Eternal Recurrence of the Same (Nietzsches Philosophie der ewigen Wiederkehr des Gleichen, 1935), or the cosmological and the ethical, while considered irreconcilable by Löwith, have since the 1960s been recalibrated through the figure of the event to pose possible scenarios out of the stalemate of the confrontation between Self and Other (ipseity and alterity) buried within this image as limit. In this manner, the image of the Eternal Return stands at the boundary between two forms of time (or two worlds) and signals the irreducible confrontation present in speculative thought and the necessity of closure through an aesthetic vision that produces a unitary field for all creative acts.

Notably, Nietzsche’s startling vision from Zarathustra suggests that the limit imposed by the Eternal Return is also a mask for an austere condition within subjectivity closely resembling the conundrum of Fichte’s I facing I, or thought turned toward thought itself (absolute subjectivity as cipher for Being). In Alenka Zupančič’s reading, in The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two (2003), the Eternal Return effectively contains a secret formal function that grinds all “error” to dust – a highly suggestive interpretation that also neutralizes the schism introduced by Löwith between the cosmological and the ethical.

Prediction interval construction using interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems

This study proposes a novel non-parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) using interval type-2 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy logic systems (IT2 TSK FLSs). The key idea in the proposed method is to treat the left and right end points of the type-reduced set as the lower and upper bounds of a PI. This allows us to construct PIs without making any special assumption about the data distribution. A new training algorithm is developed to satisfy conditions imposed by the associated confidence level on PIs. Proper adjustment of premise and consequent parameters of IT2 TSK FLSs is performed through the minimization of a PI-based objective function, rather than traditional error-based cost functions. This new cost function covers both validity and informativeness aspects of PIs. A metaheuristic method is applied for minimization of the non-linear non-differentiable cost function. Quantitative measures are applied for assessing the quality of PIs constructed using IT2 TSK FLSs. The demonstrated results for four benchmark case studies with homogenous and heterogeneous noise clearly show the proposed method is capable of generating high quality PIs useful for decision-making.

Fire and its interaction with ecological processes in box-ironbark forests

Box-Ironbark forests extend across a swathe of northern Victoria on the inland side of the Great Dividing Range. Although extensively cleared and modified, they support a distinctive suite of plants and animals. Historical fire regimes in this ecosystem are largely unknown, as are the effects of fire on most of the biota. However, knowledge of the ecological attributes of plant species has been used to determine minimum and maximum tolerable fire intervals for this ecosystem to guide current fire management. Here, we consider the potential effects of planned fire in the context of major ecological drivers of the current box-ironbark forests: namely, the climate and physical environment; historical land clearing and fragmentation; and extractive land uses. We outline an experimental management and research project based on application of planned burns in different seasons (autumn, spring) and at different levels of burn cover (patchy, extensive). A range of ecological attributes will be monitored before and after burns to provide better understanding of the landscape-scale effects of fire in box-ironbark forests. Such integration of management and research is essential to address the many knowledge gaps in fire ecology, particularly in the context of massively increased levels of planned burning currently being implemented in Victoria.