Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

O exame da admissibilidade financeira e orçamentária de proposições na Assembleia Nacional da França

Analisa o controle da admissibilidade financeira de proposições legislativas, com impacto nas contas públicas na Assembleia Nacional da França. Compara, subsidiariamente, com o caso brasileiro referente à Câmara dos Deputados. Expõe a atuação das diferentes instituições do Estado francês envolvidas no exame de admissibilidade financeira. Investiga as competências e o processo legislativo relacionados, especificamente no que tange à Assembleia Nacional. Detalha os critérios e os conceitos relativos ao exame, adotados por aquela casa legislativa e consigna a evolução histórica recente dos principais aspectos do controle de admissibilidade na França.

La gestión del conocimiento científico-técnico en la universidad: un caso y un proyecto

[ES] Actualmente, las universidades se enfrentan a aumentos en sus necesidades de financiación, cuando el criterio predominante es que los poderes públicos tengan una menor presencia en la misma. Por otra parte, algunos investigadores indican que la Universidad parece estar perdiendo posiciones como centro de generación de conocimiento, el cual, como recurso en s. mismo, este siendo objeto de creciente atención por parte de las empresas y los gobiernos, considerándose le el recurso clave en la consecución de ventajas competitivas. En estas circunstancias, estimamos que la Universidad debe hacer mayores esfuerzos en orientar su investigación a la aplicación del conocimiento científico-técnico, en colaboración con las empresas y las administraciones públicas, como indica el modelo de la triple hélice de Etzkowitz y Leydesdorff. En este trabajo se presenta también como se afronta en la Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea la gestión del conocimiento científico técnico, as. como un proyecto de investigación cuya finalidad consiste en la búsqueda de un modelo de gestión de este conocimiento en el contexto descrito.

Hago click y opero a tu lado: Estrategia de la banca online en España

[ES] La estrategia de la Banca española con respecto a Internet se ha enmarcado entre la modernización del sector y el miedo a la competencia de terceras partes. En el artículo mostramos como, desde la efervescencia inicial, las entidades se han centrado en construir un negocio rentable parte de una estrategia multicanal. Sin embargo todavía las instituciones españolas no han conseguido aprovechar todas las ventajas que presenta Internet a la hora de facilitar la comercialización de productos financieros.

Resale in Auctions with Financial Constraints

This paper analyzes auctions where bidders face nancial constraints that may force them to resell part of the property of the good (or subcontract part of a project) at a resale market. First we show that the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria of second- price auctions (Garratt and Tröger, 2006) generalizes to situations with partial resale where only the high value bidder is nancially constrained. However, when all players face nancial constraints the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria disappear. Therefore, for auctioning big facilities or contracts where all bidders are nancially constrained and there is a resale market, the second price auction remains a simple and appropriate mechanism to achieve an e¢ cient allocation.

System requirement report for ‘Level 2’: national management institutions, Fisheries Department in Cambodia

(51 p.)

Financial x-ray

An over view of the financial x-ray service. JL

Transforming curriculum design: transforming institutions

This briefing looks at lessons and resources from the ongoing Institutional Approaches to Curriculum Design programme that may benefit others undertaking institutional transformation.