Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

An economic case for providing free access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive people in South Australia

Background As financial constraints can be a barrier to accessing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), we argue for the removal of copayment requirements from HIV medications in South Australia. Methods Using a simple mathematical model informed by available behavioural and biological data and reflecting the HIV epidemiology in South Australia, we calculated the expected number of new HIV transmissions caused by persons who are not currently on ART compared with transmissions for people on ART. The extra financial investment required to cover the copayments to prevent an HIV infection was compared with the treatment costs saved due to averting HIV infections. Results It was estimated that one HIV infection is prevented per year for every 31.4 persons (median, 24.0–42.7 interquartile range (IQR)) who receive treatment. By considering the incremental change in costs and outcomes of a change in program from the current status quo, it would cost the health sector $17 860 per infection averted (median, $13 651–24 287 IQR) if ART is provided as a three-dose, three-drug combination without requirements for user-pay copayments. Conclusions The costs of removing copayment fees for ART are less than the costs of treating extra HIV infections that would result under current conditions. Removing the copayment requirement for HIV medication would be cost-effective from a governmental perspective.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

Economic Analysis and Policy moves forward

As Editor of Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) I am delighted to announce that EAP is now published by Elsevier. EAP is the journal of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland branch). As a result of this move, four issues of EAP will be published per year instead of the current three. This will include special issues. EAP will now receive wider coverage in the relevant abstracting and indexing services...

Family structure and change through middle childhood : the impact on children's adjustment and achievement

This research project investigated the influence of family transitions on children's adjustment and school achievement across the primary school years, in single-parent, re-partnered and two-parent families. The quality of children's relationships with parents, teachers and peers were predictive of more positive outcomes, regardless of family structure. The research analysed data from the Kindergarten Cohort participating in Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Across the age span of the children studied, cumulative effects of any residential or school changes, or decreased family income, associated with family transitions, were more likely to predict poorer child outcomes in behaviour adjustment and school achievement.

The psychological and economic factors that influence energy consumption habits of low-income earners

Social marketers and governments have often targeted hard to reach or vulnerable groups (Gordon et al., 2006) such as young adults and low income earners. Past research has shown that low-income earners are often at risk of poor health outcomes and diminished lifestyle (Hampson et al., 2009; Scott et al., 2012). Young adults (aged 18 to 35) are in a transition phase of their life where lifestyle preferences are still being formed and are thus a useful target for long-term sustainable change. An area of focus for all levels of government is the use of energy with an aim to reduce consumption. There is little research to date that combines both of these groups and in particular in the context of household energy usage. Research into financially disadvantaged consumers is challenging the notion that that low income consumer purchasing and usage of products and services is based upon economic status (Sharma et al., 2012). Prior research shows higher income earners view items such as televisions and computers as necessities rather than non-essential (Karlsson et al., 2004). Consistent with this is growing evidence that low income earners purchase non-essential, energy intensive electronic appliances such as multiple big screen TV sets and additional refrigerators. With this in mind, there is a need for knowledge about how psychological and economic factors influence the energy consumption habits (e.g. appliances on standby power, leaving appliances turned on, running multiple devices at one time) of low income earners. Thus, our study sought to address the research question of: What are the factors that influence young adult low-income earners energy habits?

Structure and palaeoenvironmental implications of inter-branch coenosteum-rich skeleton in corymbose Acropora species

Coral reefs provide an increasingly important archive of palaeoclimate data that can be used to constrain climate model simulations. Reconstructing past environmental conditions may also provide insights into the potential of reef systems to survive changes in the Earth’s climate. Reef-based palaeoclimate reconstructions are predominately derived from colonies of massive Porites, with the most abundant genus in the Indo-Pacific—Acropora—receiving little attention owing to their branching growth trajectories, high extension rates and secondary skeletal thickening. However, inter-branch skeleton (consisting of both coenosteum and corallites) near the bases of corymbose Acropora colonies holds significant potential as a climate archive. This region of Acropora skeleton is atypical, having simple growth trajectories with parallel corallites, approximately horizontal density banding, low apparent extension rates and a simple microstructure with limited secondary thickening. Hence, inter-branch skeleton in Acropora bears more similarities to the coralla of massive corals, such as Porites, than to traditional Acropora branches. Cyclic patterns of Sr/Ca ratios in this structure suggest that the observed density banding is annual in nature, thus opening up the potential to use abundant corymbose Acropora for palaeoclimate reconstruction.

Heartbeat and economic decisions : observing mental stress among proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game

The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum.

Spatially varying ground motion effects on seismic response of adjacent structures considering soil-structure interaction

Spatial variation of seismic ground motions is caused by incoherence effect, wave passage, and local site conditions. This study focuses on the effects of spatial variation of earthquake ground motion on the responses of adjacent reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The adjacent buildings are modeled considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) so that the buildings can be interacted with each other under uniform and non-uniform ground motions. Three different site classes are used to model the soil layers of SSI system. Based on fast Fourier transformation (FFT), spatially correlated non-uniform ground motions are generated compatible with known power spectrum density function (PSDF) at different locations. Numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the displacement responses and the absolute maximum base shear forces of adjacent structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The results are presented in terms of related parameters affecting the structural response using three different types of soil site classes. The responses of adjacent structures have changed remarkably due to spatial variation of ground motions. The effect can be significant on rock site rather than clay site.

Telecommunications Impacts on the Structure and Organisation of Male Sex Work

(Sub)Urban Sexscapes brings together a collection of theoretically-informed and empirically rich case studies highlighting the contemporary and historical geographies and regulation of the commercial sex industry. Contributions in this edited volume examine the spatial and regulatory contours of the sex industry from a range of disciplinary perspectives—urban planning, urban geography, urban sociology, and, cultural and media studies—and geographical contexts—Australia, the UK, US and North Africa. In overall terms, (Sub)urban Sexscapes highlights the mainstreaming of commercial sex premises—sex shops, brothels, strip clubs and queer spaces—and products—sex toys, erotic literature and pornography—now being commonplace in night time economy spaces, the high street, suburban shopping centres and the home. In addition, the aesthetics of commercial and alternative sexual practices—BDSM and pornography—permeate the (sub)urban landscape via billboards, newspapers and magazines, television, music videos and the Internet. The role of sex, sexuality and commercialized sex, in contributing to the general character of our cities cannot be ignored. In short, there is a need for policy-makers to be realistic about the historical, contemporary and future presence of the sex industry. Ultimately, the regulation of the sex industry should be informed by evidence as opposed to moral panics.

Comparison of intraspecific genetic structure among related chironomids (Diptera) from New Zealand and Patagonia : disparity between potential and realized dispersal

Population genetic studies of freshwater invertebrate taxa in New Zealand and South America are currently few despite the geologically and climatically dynamic histories of these regions. The focus of our study was a comparison of the influence on realized dispersal of 2 closely related nonbiting midges (Chironomidae) of population fragmentation on these separated austral land masses. We used a 734-base pair (bp) fragment of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) to investigate intraspecific genetic structure in Naonella forsythi Boothroyd in New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Edwards in Patagonia. We proposed hypotheses about their potential dispersal and, hence, expected patterns of genetic structure in these 2 species based on published patterns for the closely related Australian taxon Echinocladius martini Cranston. Genetic structure revealed for both N. forsythi and F. patagonica was characterized by several highly divergent (2.0–10.5%) lineages of late Miocene–Pliocene age within each taxon that were not geographically localized. Many were distributed widely. This pattern differed greatly from population structure in E. martini, which was typified by much greater endemicity of divergent genetic lineages. Nevertheless, diversification of lineages in all 3 taxa appeared to be temporally congruent with the onset of late Miocene glaciations in the southern hemisphere that may have driven fragmentation of suitable habitat, promoting isolation of populations and divergence in allopatry. We argue that differences in realized dispersal post-isolation may be the result of differing availability of suitable habitat in interglacial periods.

Adverse breast cancer treatment effects: The economic case for making rehabilitative programs standard of care

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to evaluate the patient-borne financial cost of common, adverse breast cancer treatment-associated effects, comparing cost across women with or without these side-effects. Methods: 287 Australian women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer were prospectively followed starting at six months post-surgery for 12 months, with three-monthly assessment of detailed treatment-related side effects and their direct and indirect patient costs attributable to breast cancer. Bootstrapping statistics were used to analyze cost data and adjusted logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between costs and adverse events from breast cancer. Costs were inflated and converted from 2002 Australian to 2014 US dollars. Results: More than 90% of women experienced at least one adverse effect (i.e. post-surgical issue, reaction to radiotherapy, upper-body symptoms or reduced function, lymphedema, fatigue or weight gain). On average, women paid $5,636 (95%CI: $4,694, $6,577) in total costs. Women with any one of the following symptoms (fatigue, reduced upper-body function, upper-body symptoms) or women who report ≥4 adverse treatment-related effects, have 1.5 to nearly 4 times the odds of having higher healthcare costs than women who do not report these complaints (p<0.05). Conclusions: Women face substantial economic burden due to a range of treatment-related health problems, which may persist beyond the treatment period. Improving breast cancer care by incorporating prospective surveillance of treatment-related side effects, and strategies for prevention and treatment of concerns (e.g., exercise) has real potential for reducing patient-borne costs.

Structure analysis on the nanoscale : closed WS2 nanoboxes through a cascade of topo- and epitactic processes

Closed WS2 nanoboxes were formed by topotactic sulfidization of a WO3/WO3 center dot 1/3H(2)O intergrowth precursor. Automated diffraction tomography was used to elucidate the growth mechanism of these unconventional hollow structures. By partial conversion and structural analysis of the products, each of them representing a snapshot of the reaction at a given point in time, the overall reaction can be broken down into a cascade of individual steps and each of them identified with a basic mechanism. During the initial step of sulfidization WO3 center dot 1/3H(2)O transforms into hexagonal WO3 whose surface allows for the epitaxial induction of WS2. The initially formed platelets of WS2 exhibit a preferred orientation with respect to the nanorod surface. In the final step individual layers of WS2 coalesce to form closed shells. In essence, a cascade of several topotactic reactions leads to epitactic induction and formation of closed rectangular hollow boxes made up from hexagonal layers.