Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.

Influência do desenvolvimento tecnológico sobre o desenvolvimento social a partir das atividades da incubadora tecnológica de Campina Grande, Campina Grande Paraíba

Este estudo avalia a influência do desenvolvimento tecnológico sobre o social, a partir das atividades produtivas desenvolvidas na unidade agroindustrial Recanto lI, no município de Catolé do Rocha, com o apoio da Incubadora Tecnológica de Campina Grande - ITCG, e o Programa de Estudos e Ações no Semi-Árido Paraibano da Universidade Federal de Campina Grande - PEASAlUFCG. Os problemas sociais no semi-árido surgiram por condições ambientais adversas e se intensificaram pela falta de políticas públicas adequadas à educação e ao desenvolvimento da região. O problema é expresso pela seguinte indagação: Qual a influência entre o desenvolvimento tecnológico e o desenvolvimento social gerados a partir da atividade produtiva da Incubadora de Campina Grande, em Campina Grande, Paraíba? A relevância deste trabalho vem da pretensão em colaborar para o estudo da relação entre desenvolvimento tecnológico e social, numa tentativa de tornar inteligível a necessidade de educação e inovação tecnológica para o desenvolvimento social, principalmente em países não desenvolvidos. Vem também da utilidade para a formulação de políticas públicas e estratégias de desenvolvimento tecnológico, identificando ações e medidas de desempenho, voltadas ao diagnóstico da contribuição das incubadoras tecnológicas para o bem-estar da sociedade. O referencial teórico foi composto pela análise da função das racionalidades dos diversos agentes sociais e de sua contribuição para as interações sociais, além da análise das realidades culturais da sociedade empresariada, do Estado e das incubadoras tecnológicas. A metodologia se utilizou da pesquisa descritiva e explicativa, de campo, documental, bibliográfica e estudo de caso. O universo foram as pessoas que compõem a ITCG e a amostra foram o diretor da Incubadora, o cientista da UFCG e o líder comunitário de Recanto lI. Os sujeitos da pesquisa confundem-se com a amostra. A coleta de dados se deu por meio da literatura sobre a temática e de inserções no campo de estudo. O tratamento de dados se utilizou da análise qualitativa do fenômeno. As principais limitações do método consistiram na coleta, no tratamento dos dados, e na utilização do estudo de caso, com possibilidade de compreensão tendenciosa do fenômeno estudado. O referencial prático apresenta o resultados da pesquisa, avaliando-os por meio da comparação com o referencial teórico estudado. Tem-se como resultados que a ITCG agiu articulando os grupos e traduzindo as realidades culturais de cada agente em prol do desenvolvimento de comunidades agroindustriais em situação de risco social, devido à problemática da seca. A ITCG atuou como alfabetizadora social ensinando aos agentes sociais os códigos culturais dos demais grupos. As desigualdades que existiam entre o cientista e o sertanejo, aprofundadas pelo vexatório histórico de escravidão do homem do campo no nordeste brasileiro, foram minimizadas pela educação dada pelo próprio cientista. A Universidade contribuiu para a redução do analfabetismo ambiental, onde o meio ambiente era tido como o principal rival do homem do sertão. O Estado, quando atua em parceria com os demais agentes sociais consegue, manter-se como o principal instrumento dos cidadãos para controlar a globalização em função de seus valores e interesses. Na ITCG o ambiente de incubação é educacional, onde os novos empreendedores são postos em contato com a realidade cultural do empresariado, do Estado e de outras comunidades da sociedade, seguindo modelos meramente educacionais. Como conclusão tem-se que a trajetória dos cidadãos de Recanto II - de escravos a exportadores - foi baseada em dois grandes tesouros, a família e areligião. O mérito da ITCG foi compreender, respeitar e preservar a realidade cultural de Recanto 11 e incentivar a interação social com outras realidades culturais capazes de gerar desenvolvimento naquela região. A saúde, o desenvolvimento infantil, a segurança, a habitação foram conquistas de Recanto 11. Como sugestão tem-se que as políticas públicas deveriam reproduzir este ambiente de desenvolvimento para todos os cidadãos brasileiros em situação de risco social, utilizando-se da família como base para interações sociais fluidas e harmônicas entre os diversos agentes sociais.

Potencial de produção de cana-energia em áreas agrícolas marginais no Brasil

A descoberta e utilização do petróleo provocaram significativas mudanças na sociedade ao longo do tempo, sendo ele um dos mais importantes fatores de transformação socioambiental e cultural no mundo ao longo do ultimo século. Sua grande gama de possibilidades de utilização acabou criando um sistema de produção baseado em um único agente energético, principalmente nos países que não possuem recursos hídricos nem outras fontes renováveis. Porém, nas ultimas décadas do século passado, começaram a surgir inúmeras discussões sobre a necessidade de se alterar a composição da matriz energética global. Como resultados das preocupações quanto à escassez daquele recurso natural, vários pesquisadores direcionaram seus estudos para a busca de alternativas que pudessem de forma sustentável se prestar como substituto ao petróleo. Uma delas seria o uso de biomassa, de forma a aproveitar a capacidade das plantas em transformar a energia solar em carbohidratos. O Brasil, além de possuir uma das matrizes energéticas mais diversificadas e limpas do mundo, possui grande extensão de terras agricultáveis o que o coloca em lugar de destaque quanto ao potencial de produção de culturas agroenergéticas. Considerando as características da cana-de-açúcar e a sua adaptação a áreas de cultivo do Brasil e impulsionados pela demanda de produção de biomassa moderna, a ser aplicada em processos de transformação mais complexos e que possibilitem a obtenção de outros produtos além de açúcar, álcool e energia, estudou-se neste trabalho plantas de cana-de-açúcar melhoradas com a finalidade exclusiva de produzir biomassa moderna, a chamada “cana- energia”. Esta é uma planta que, contrariamente à tradicional cana-de-açúcar, melhorada para produzir sacarose, é direcionada para produzir fibra, e que, além disso, por possuir maior participação de espécies ancestrais de maior rusticidade, estão aptas a suportar condições ambientais mais estressantes. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que os híbridos de cana-energia apresentam grande potencial de produção de biomassa e massa seca por área, a custos altamente competitivos considerando as análises comparativas de custo de produção de massa seca por área. Quanto a produção foi possível observar que além de ser mais produtiva em primeiro corte, nos resultados de colheita de soqueira (segundo corte), o melhor híbrido de cana- energia chegou a produzir uma vez e meia mais massa seca que a cana-de-açúcar tradicional, e apresentou maiores produtividades que outras culturas energéticas tais como o eucalipto e o capim-elefante, sendo que, considerando as produtividades médias observadas, a partir do terceiro corte com estes níveis de produtividade, a cana-energia passa a ser a matéria prima de mais baixo custo de produção de massa seca por área, denotando o seu alto potencial como matéria prima para a produção de bioenergia. No Zoneamento agroecológico realizado para a cana energia foi possível identificar 32,3 milhões de hectares de áreas de produção agrícola marginais aptas ao cultivo deste material, sendo que de acordo com os resultados do zoneamento agrícola e as características das regiões em estudos, identifica-se que deste total, pode-se considerar que os materiais que se destacaram em produtividade neste estudo, apresentam boas condições de ocupar uma área de 2,0 a 8,0 milhões de hectares.

The role of media networks in compensating political biases: evidence from radio networks in Brazil

A central question in political economy is how to incentivize elected socials to allocate resources to those that need them the most. Research has shown that, while electoral incentives lead central governments to transfer fewer funds to non-aligned constituencies, media presence is instrumental in promoting a better allocation of resources. This study evaluates how these two phenomena interact by analyzing the role of media in compensating political biases. In particular, we analyze how media presence, connectivity and ownership affect the distribution of federal drought relief transfers to Brazilian municipalities. We find that municipalities that are not aligned with the federal government have a lower probability of receiving funds conditional on experiencing low precipitation. However, we show that the presence of radio stations compensates for this bias. This effect is driven by municipalities that have radio stations connected to a regional network rather than by the presence of local radio stations. In addition, the effect of network-connected radio stations increases with their network coverage. These findings suggests that the connection of a radio station to a network is important because it increases the salience of disasters, making it harder for the federal government to ignore non-allies. We show that our findings are not explained by the ownership and manipulation of media by politicians.

Entry and externality : hydroelectric generators in Brazil

This work analyzes the entry problem in the hydroelectric generation industry. The operation of a generator upstream regularizes the river flow for generators located downstream on the same river, increasing the production capacity of the latter. This positive externality increases the attractiveness of the locations downstream whenever a generator decides to enter upstream. Therefore, the entry decision of a generator in a given location may affect all entry decisions in potential locations for plants downstream. I first model the problem of generators located in cascade on the same river to show the positive effect of the externality. Next, I develop a method to estimate an entry model specific to the hydro generation industry which takes into account the externality of the entry decisions. Finally, I use a data set on investment decisions of Brazilian hydro-generators to estimate the model. The results show a positive incentive to locate downstream from existing plants and from locations where entry is likely to occur. An interesting by-product of the analysis is that the year effects’ estimates show an increase one year before the energy crisis of 2001, providing evidence that the market anticipated the crisis. It contradicts the governmental version that the crisis was due to an unexpected drought.

Ampliando o acesso livre a informação: a digitalização do acervo do Núcleo Temático da Seca

FREIRE, Isa Maria, et al. Ampliando o acesso livre a informaçao: a digitalizaçao do acervo do Nucleo Tematico da Seca. Pesquisa Brasileira em Ciência da Informação e Biblioteconomia, v.3, n.2, p. 137-142, 2008.Disponivel em: . Acesso em: 04 nov. 2010.

A cultura de índio, seu menino, vem de longe aqui : formação histórica e territorialização dos Tremembé/CE

This dissertation is based on the ethnography of a strategic selection of three Tremembé ethnic situations, which are situated in the backlands of Acaraú and Itarema, municipalities located in Ceará State (Northeast Brazil). My main aims are the following. Firstly, I reconstitute the historical and social formation of three localities, called Lagoa dos Negros, Telhas, and Queimadas, related to a particular origin myth which refers to Almofala, an extinct colonial Aldeamento in the seashore, where the Tremembé indians and other native populations were converted and gathered under missionary administration. According to the origin myth, these three localities were set up after a strong drought which happened in 1888 (the so called three eights) when a group of Tremembé families moved to the countryside and established close to the Lagoa dos Negros and, later on, they were segmented into smaller groups which started to live in other areas and places not far from the former location. Notably, I develop an anthropological approach to understand the historical formation of these three localities. Secondly, I analyze some processes of territorialization, which were emerged from the 1980s and had important consequences to these indigenous families throughout the next two decades. This historical dimension is re-appropriated and ressignified in ethnic terms. A third point of my work is the analysis of the construction of territorialities and also the cultural and symbolic dimensions which are formulated by the Tremembé Indians who live in these localities. Therefore, I investigate some cultural traditions and rituals, such as the Torém dance, but I also examine their multiple semantics, which constitute a transversal direction throughout the history understood by the Tremembé of the different social situations I researched. To sum up, there is a process of cultural actualization, which is still going on and presents itself through the ludic sphere as well as their political and religions dimensions, which are usually associated to the ritual presentation of the Torém

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Henrique Novaes: técnica, território e cidade em uma trajetória profissional: Brasil, primeira metade do século XX

The career of civil engineer Henrique de Novaes, a remarkable figure in the academic, technical and political fields, demonstrates its extensive and relevant work across Brazil in the first half of the twentieth century. It covered from the design of water supply and sewage works, road and rail transport networks, works against drought in the Northeast, hydroelectric and harbor facilities to the urbanization planning and architectural projects, which displays a systematic and multiple production. City and territory conformed to his fields of verification, practical and above all, transformation. The search for understanding of the inclusion of a social actor in this process thus contributes to the specific analysis of the doings of Henrique de Novaes, who graduated at Polytechnic School of Rio de Janeiro in 1906. From a polymorphic activity in different scales, one tries to figure how, through academic education or professional practice, urban history in Brazil can be told or built. The introduction of technological innovations matched the purposes of planning and urban sprawl, as well as met the specifications of regulation and institutionalization of public infrastructure services at the time. The overall plans proposed by the engineer thought of the city as a whole, interconnected to the structural networks. At the same time, the knowledge of a larger physical scale the territory bounces back in the urban in a relationship of reciprocity and completeness. The objective research, therefore, tries to understand the roles played by Henrique de Novaes s works and academic education in the accomplishment of systematic modernization of Brazilian urban space and territory, recovering a little known historical figure by current historiography. It is proposed, as methodological axis, that the study of this professional career configures itself as an essential element for understanding the idea of progress embodied in the technical studies and proposals for improvements and sanitation nationwide in the first half of the twentieth century . The primary sources for the construction of this analysis were technical articles in journals of the period ( Clube de Engenharia , Viação e Revista Brasileira de Engenharia ), and technical reports, government messages, newspaper articles published at the time, autobiographical reports and the engineer s verbal communications with relatives. The work is structured in three chapters: "Biographical traces, academic education and 'technical and political' activities" illustrates the initiation into the technical, public and political environment; Chapter 2, "Technique and territory" outlines his network understanding through sanitation and transport services; Chapter 3 "Technique and City" describes the influence of polytechnics knowledge on the propositions of modernization of cities; Finally, "Final Thoughts: An Evaluation," presents an overview of the affiliations and practice of an engineer in the different scales, and its contribution to the modernization of Brazilian urban and territorial space

Eutrofização do reservatório Engenheiro Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves, no Rio Grande do Norte: implicações para o abastecimento público e para a piscicultura intensiva em tanques-rede

This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of variation in trophic state and its relation with the structure and dynamics of planktonic community of a large reservoir located in semi-arid tropical region of Northeast Brazil. The reservoir Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves is the biggest reservoir of the Rio Grande do Norte State and is responsible for about 53% of all surface water accumulated in the State. The samples of water and plankton were taken monthly in 10 points distributed throughout the longitudinal axis of the reservoir and over a full hydrological cycle. The samples were collected to determine concentrations of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chlorophyll a and suspended solids (fixed and volatile) and for determining the composition and abundance of phytoplanktonic and zooplanktonic species. During the study period, the reservoir was characterized as eutrophic and there was no trend of increasing the trophic state of the reservoir in the period of drought. The concentrations of total phosphorus and suspended fixed solids decreased towards the dam while the N:P ratios increased in the same direction due to the reduction in the phosphorus concentrations and relative constancy in the nitrogen concentrations. The N:P ratios observed were indicative of greater limitation by phosphorus than by nitrogen. However, as concentrations of both nutrients were high and the water transparency was very low, with secchi depth usually lower than one meter, it seems likely that the planktonic primary production of the reservoir is more limited by the availability of light than the availability of nutrients. High nutrient concentrations coupled with low availability of light may explain the continuing dominance of filamentous cyanobacteria such as Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in the plankton of the reservoir.These cyanobacteria are potentially toxic and pose a serious environmental problem because it compromises the water quality for public supply, recreation and fishing when present in high densities as in this study. The mesozooplankton of the reservoir was dominated by the calanoid Notodiaptomus cearensis and the cladoceran Diaphanosoma spinulosum. In general, the structure of zooplankton community seems to be particularly influenced by the spatial variation of cyanobacteria. The results of the regression analyses show that both the chlorophyll a concentrations and the cyanobacteria biovolume were more strongly correlated with the nitrogen than with phosphorus and that the water transparency was more strongly correlated with algal biomass than with other sources of turbidity. The maximum load of phosphorus to attain the maximum permissible concentration of total P in the reservoir was estimated in 63.2 tonnes P/ year. The current external P load to the reservoir is estimated in 324 tonnes P / year and must be severely reduced to improve the water quality for water supply and allow the implementation of aquaculture projects that could contribute to the socio-economic development of the region

Comunidade fitoplanctônica e qualidade da água da lagoa do jiqui, parnamirim, rn

It is important to evaluate the quality of water for proper management of these resources, since the increase of environmental degradation and the multiple use of water resources are decreasing the quality of water consumed by living beings. The objective of this study was to characterize the phytoplankton community and its variations during periods of dray and rain in Jiqui Lake located in Parnamirim, RN. It was also aimed to analyze the physical and chemical factors of this environment, in order to contribute to the knowledge of water quality used for human consumption. The collection of water samples were carried out in September 2008 to August 2009. The collection of the phytoplankton community was carried out in four sampling sites (surface, bottom, margin of the lake without macrophytes and site dominated by macrophytes). Phytoplankton was collected using plankton net of 20m. The analysis of nutrients and identification of phytoplankton were performed in the laboratory. The results indicate that concentration of chlorophyll a was high in the bottom with mean value of 1.07 μgL-1 (SD ± 1.61). During the study period there was a dominance of the following species: Euglena gracilis, Trachelomonas sp, Cyclotellas sp, Gomphonema apuncto, Navicula cuspidata var. cuspidata, Navicula sp, Rhopalodia gibba. There was homogeneity between limnological values in the four study sites, with significant difference between the periods of drought and rain. The Jiqui Lake is considered oligotrophic due to its low concentrations of chlorophyll a, high transparency and low levels of nutrients. The values of BOD and chlorophyll a concentration remained below the permitted standards existing for freshwaters in Brazil, thus the water from Lake Jiqui is of good quality, suitable for human consumption.

Abundância das formas imaturas de Psaroniocompsa incrustata ( Lutz, 1910) (Diptera: Simuliidae) em um criadouro natural no rio Pium/RN, e sua fauna associada

The species psaroniocompsa incrustata (Lutz, 1910) was studied in relation to its abundance in different and seasonal periods, the physico-chemical of the breending ground and the fauna predation added to the immature of the species. The study was developed during eight months, from April to July, 2005 (rainy season) and from October, 2005 to January, 2006 (drought season), in one natural breending ground situated in the Pium river, that is part of the hydrographical basin of the Pirangi river in Rio Grande do Norte. The immature of Simuliidae were collected manually in vegetal substrate. At the same place, it was made one sampling of the associated fauna using Suber collectors and the measurement of the environment variants. It was also made one analysis of the stomach content of possible enemies of the simulídeos, to observe the predation of the associated fauna. It was collected 7.713 samples, all from de species P. Incrustata, it was observed a bigger abundance in the drought season, and the entomologic fauna associated totalizing 20.1314 species, distributed in the kinds: Diptera, Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Trichoptera, e Hemiptera, with a bigger representativity of Dipteros. The analysis of the stomach content of the species from the families Libellulidae and Hydropsychidae showed the presence of the simulídeos in only 4% of the material analysed, therefore it was not confirmed the presence of one efficient biological control of the simulídeos in this breending ground

Bioecologia da ictiofauna marinha descartada pelo arrasto camaroeiro em praias da Bacia Potiguar, Brasil

The composition of ichthyofauna discarded by trawling shrimping, their reproductive status and feeding ecology were studied on the beaches of Basin Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Fish were collected monthly in the year of 2012. During biometrics, portions of the digestive tract and of gonads were removed, fixed in formalin 10% and Bouin, respectively, for be submitted to histological processing by the techniques of hematoxylin-eosin. Stomach content analyzes were performed using the methods of Frequency of Occurrence and Volumetric and was calculated the repletion index. Throughout the study period were recorded a total of 49 species. The fish assemblages differed between sections monitoring, with the highest abundance, biomass and indices of richness and diversity in sections B, D and C. Already the excerpt A, showed higher values for dominance and equitability. In the cluster analysis according to the faunal similarity was observed the formation of three groups: group I formed by excerpts B and D, group II by excerpt C and group III formed by excerpt A. The assessment of reproductive stage revealed that the fish assemblages discarded by trawling are composed mainly of juveniles. Regarding the feeding ecology, the species Larimus breviceps, Menticirrhus littoralis and Pomadasys corvinaeformis characterized as carnivorous with tendency to carcinofagia. Already Conodon nobilis characterized as carnivorous with tendency to piscivory, but all proved generalist-opportunistic with increase of feeding activity during drought. The dendrogram of grouping of the species developed based on the food items used shows the formation of four groups: Group I consists of species that feed mainly of "gastropod" and "sediment"; group II of "teleost fish"; the group III of "crustacea" and group IV of "echinodermata" and "bivalve". The anatomical and histological characteristics of the digestive tract were consistent with the dietary habits of the analyzed species. In this context, the Costa Branca of Rio Grande do Norte can be considered a feeding site and recruitment for juveniles, which, opportunistically, utilize resources associated with the background

Biochemical and physiological responses of sugarcane cultivars to soil water deficiencies

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Respostas fisiológicas de diferentes clones de eucalipto sob diferentes regimes de irrigação

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)