Improving the low-wind performance of the AERMOD atmospheric dispersion model for predicting short-range impacts of livestock ammonia emissions.

Short-range impacts to sensitive ecosystems as a result of ammonia emitted by livestock farms are often assessed using atmospheric dispersion modelling systems such as AERMOD. These assessments evaluate mean annual atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and nitrogen deposition rates at the ecosystem location for comparison with ecosystem damage thresholds. However, predictions of mean annual atmospheric concentrations can be dominated by periods of stable night-time conditions, which can contribute significantly to mean concentrations. AERMOD has been demonstrated to overestimate concentrations in certain stable low-wind conditions and so the model could potentially overestimate the short-range impacts of livestock ammonia emissions. This paper tests several modifications to the parameterisation of AERMOD (v12345) that aim to improve model predictions in low-wind conditions. The modifications are first described and then are applied to three pig farm case studies in the USA, Denmark and Spain to assess whether the modifications improve long-term mean ammonia concentration predictions through improved model performance. For these three case studies, most of the modifications tested improved model performance as a result of reducing the long-term mean concentration predictions, with the largest effect for low- or ground-level sources (e.g. slurry lagoons or naturally ventilated housing).

Methodology for assessing regional economic impacts of charging HGVs in Spain: an integrated approach through a random utility based multiregional input-output and a road transportation network model

An integrated approach composed of a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model was developed for evaluating the application of a fee to heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) in Spain. For this purpose, a distance-based charge scenario (in euros per vehicle kilometer) for HGVs was evaluated for a selected motorway network in Spain. Although the aim of this charging policy was to increase the efficiency of transport, the approach strongly identified direct and indirect impacts on the regional economy. Estimates of the magnitude and extent of indirect effects on aggregated macroeconomic indicators (employment and gross domestic product) are provided. The macroeconomic effects of the charging policy were found to be positive for some regions and negative for other regions.

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe.

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agroclimatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes

Quantification of impacts in artistic gymnastics with accelerometry: an approximation

Intensity and volume of training in Artisti Gymnastics are increasing as the sooner athlete's age of incorporation creating some disturbance in them.

Territorial cohesion impacts of high-speed rail under different zoning systems

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail (HSR) produce significant effects on the spatial distribution of accessibility. These effects, commonly known as territorial cohesion effects, are receiving increasing attention in the research literature. However, there is little empirical research into the sensitivity of these cohesion results to methodological issues such as the definition of the limits of the study area or the zoning system. In a previous paper (Ortega et al., 2012), we investigated the influence of scale issues, comparing the cohesion results obtained at four different planning levels. This paper makes an additional contribution to our research with the investigation of the influence of zoning issues. We analyze the extent to which changes in the size of the units of analysis influence the measurement of spatial inequalities. The methodology is tested by application to the Galician (north-western) HSR corridor, with a length of nearly 670 km, included in the Spanish PEIT (Strategic Transport and Infrastructure Plan) 2005-2020. We calculated the accessibility indicators for the Galician HSR corridor and assessed their corresponding territorial distribution. We used five alternative zoning systems depending on the method of data representation used (vector or raster), and the level of detail (cartographic accuracy or cell size). Our results suggest that the choice between a vector-based and raster-based system has important implications. The vector system produces a higher mean accessibility value and a more polarized accessibility distribution than raster systems. The increased pixel size of raster-based systems tends to give rise to higher mean accessibility values and a more balanced accessibility distribution. Our findings strongly encourage spatial analysts to acknowledge that the results of their analyses may vary widely according to the definition of the units of analysis.

Coastal Impacts Around Guadiaro River Mouth (Spain)

The “Port of Sotogrande” Beach (San Roque, Cadiz, Spain) has suffered significant erosion and changes since the construction of the marina and port of Sotogrande (San Roque, Cadiz, Spain). This paper reviews the dynamical processes on Guadiaro front and establishes relationship between them. It sets from a comparative evolution of the Alboran Sea Coast outlets and bays since the Little Ice Age, which shows that the Guadiaro estuary has remained functional while all other Alboran fluvial estuaries silted to son. The study shows the evidences of the coastal impacts around the mouth, even further than mouth littoral barriers, of the port infrastructures; and it provides new elements to understand the dynamical processes on the mouth and surroundings as well. That should be fundamental for shore protection along the whole coastal stretch

Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and The Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis. Abstract: Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Considering the critical role that water plays for agricultural production, any shock in water availability will have great implications for agricultural production, land allocation, and agricultural prices. In this paper, an Agricultural Multimarket model is developed to analyze climate change impacts in developing countries, accounting for the uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The model has a structure flexible enough to represent local conditions, resource availability, and market conditions. The results suggest different economic consequences of climate change depending on the specific activity, with many distributional effects across regions

The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On The Chilean Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Climate change impacts are related to changes in the growth period, extreme weather events, and changes in temperature and recipitation patterns, among others. All of these impacts may have significant consequences on agricultural production(Bates, et al.2008. A main issue regarding climate change impacts is related to the uncertainty associated with their occurrence. Climate change impacts can bestimated with simulation models based on several assumptions, among which the future patterns of emissions of greenhouse g asses are quite likely the most relevant, driving the development of future scenarios, i.e. plausible visions of how the future may unfold. Those scenarios are developed as storylines associated with different assumptions about climate and socioeconomic conditions and emissions, with reference figures, such as demographic projections, average global temperatures, etc.(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000). Within this context, climate change impact assessment is forced to consider multiple and interconnected sources of uncertainty in order to produce valuable information for policymakers.

Evaluation of air quality impacts with an integrated assessment model for Spain

The present paper describes the advancement and evaluation of air quality-related impacts with the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS). In its current version, AERIS is able to provide estimates on the impacts of air quality over human health (PM2.5 and O3), crops and vegetation (O3). The modules that allow quantifying the before mentioned impacts were modeled by applying different approaches (mostly for the European context) present in scientific literature to the conditions of the Iberian Peninsula. This application was supported by reliable data sources, as well as by the good predictive capacity of AERIS for ambient concentrations. For validation purposes, the estimates of AERIS for impacts on human health (change in the statistical life expectancy-PM2.5) and vegetation (loss of wheat crops-O3) were compared against results from the SERCA project and GAINS estimates for two emission scenarios. In general, good results evidenced by reasonable correlation coefficients were obtained, therefore confirming the adequateness of the followed modeling approaches and the quality of AERIS predictions.