Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Dynamics of rod and cone photoreceptor interactions under mesopic light levels

Visual adaptation regulates contrast sensitivity during dynamically changing light conditions (Crawford, 1947; Hecht, Haig & Chase, 1937). These adaptation dynamics are unknown under dim (mesopic) light levels when the rod (R) and long (L), medium (M) and short (S) wavelength cone photoreceptor classes contribute to vision via interactions in shared non-opponent Magnocellular (MC), chromatically opponent Parvocellular (PC) and Koniocellular (KC) visual pathways (Dacey, 2000). This study investigated the time-course of adaptation and post-receptoral pathways mediating receptor specific rod and cone interactions under mesopic illumination. A four-primary photostimulator (Pokorny, Smithson & Quinlan, 2004) was used to independently control the activity of the four photoreceptor classes and their post-receptoral visual athways in human observers. In the first experiment, the contrast sensitivity and time-course of visual adaptation under mesopic illumination were measured for receptoral (L, S, R) and post-receptoral (LMS, LMSR, L-M) stimuli. An incremental (Rapid-ON) sawtooth conditioning pulse biased detection to ON-cells within the visual pathways and sensitivity was assayed relative to pulse onset using a briefly presented incremental probe that did not alter adaptation. Cone.Cone interactions with luminance stimuli (L cone, LMS, LMSR) reduced sensitivity by 15% and the time course of recovery was 25± 5ms-1 (μ ± SEM). PC mediated (+L-M) chromatic stimuli sensitivity loss was less (8%) than for luminance and recovery was slower (μ = 2.95 ± 0.05 ms-1), with KC mediated (S cone) chromatic stimuli showing a high sensitivity loss (38%) and the slowest recovery time (1.6 ± 0.2 ms-1). Rod-Rod interactions increased sensitivity by 20% and the time course of recovery was 0.7 ± 0.2 ms-1 (μ ± SD). Compared to these interaction types, Rod-Cone interactions reduced sensitivity to a lesser degree (5%) and showed the fastest recovery (μ = 43 ± 7 ms-1). In the second experiment, rod contribution to the magnocellular, parvocellular and koniocellular post-receptoral pathways under mesopic illumination was determined as a function of incremental stimulus duration and waveform (rectangular; sawtooth) using a rod colour match procedure (Cao, Pokorny & Smith, 2005; Cao, Pokorny, Smith & Zele, 2008a). For a 30% rod increment, a cone match required a decrease in [L/(L+M)] and an increase in [L+M] and [S/(L+M)], giving a greenish-blue and brighter appearance for probe durations of 75 ms or longer. Probe durations less than 75 ms showed an increase in [L+M] and no change in chromaticity [L/(L+M) or S/(L+M)], uggesting mediation by the MC pathway only for short duration rod stimuli. s We advance previous studies by determining the time-course and nature of photoreceptor specific retinal interactions in the three post-receptoral pathways under mesopic illumination. In the first experiment, the time-course of adaptation for ON cell processing was determined, revealing opponent cell facilitation in chromatic PC and KC pathways. The Rod-Rod and Rod-Cone data identify previously unknown interaction types that act to maintain contrast sensitivity during dynamically changing light conditions and improve the speed of light adaptation under mesopic light levels. The second experiment determined the degree of rod contribution to the inferred post-eceptoral pathways as a function of the temporal properties of the rod signal. r The understanding of the mechanisms underlying interactions between photoreceptors under mesopic illumination has implications for the study of retinal disease. Visual function has been shown to be reduced in persons with age-related maculopathy (ARM) risk genotypes prior to clinical signs of the disease (Feigl, Cao, Morris & Zele, 2011) and disturbances in rod-mediated adaptation have been shown in early phases of ARM (Dimitrov, Guymer, Zele, Anderson & Vingrys, 2008; Feigl, Brown, Lovie-Kitchin & Swann, 2005). Also, the understanding of retinal networks controlling vision enables the development of international lighting standards to optimise visual performance nder dim light levels (e.g. work-place environments, transportation).

Analytical and numerical solutions of the space and time fractional bloch-torrey equation

Fractional order dynamics in physics, particularly when applied to diffusion, leads to an extension of the concept of Brown-ian motion through a generalization of the Gaussian probability function to what is termed anomalous diffusion. As MRI is applied with increasing temporal and spatial resolution, the spin dynamics are being examined more closely; such examinations extend our knowledge of biological materials through a detailed analysis of relaxation time distribution and water diffusion heterogeneity. Here the dynamic models become more complex as they attempt to correlate new data with a multiplicity of tissue compartments where processes are often anisotropic. Anomalous diffusion in the human brain using fractional order calculus has been investigated. Recently, a new diffusion model was proposed by solving the Bloch-Torrey equation using fractional order calculus with respect to time and space (see R.L. Magin et al., J. Magnetic Resonance, 190 (2008) 255-270). However effective numerical methods and supporting error analyses for the fractional Bloch-Torrey equation are still limited. In this paper, the space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation (ST-FBTE) is considered. The time and space derivatives in the ST-FBTE are replaced by the Caputo and the sequential Riesz fractional derivatives, respectively. Firstly, we derive an analytical solution for the ST-FBTE with initial and boundary conditions on a finite domain. Secondly, we propose an implicit numerical method (INM) for the ST-FBTE, and the stability and convergence of the INM are investigated. We prove that the implicit numerical method for the ST-FBTE is unconditionally stable and convergent. Finally, we present some numerical results that support our theoretical analysis.

Variations on a routine : how selection-adaptation-retention dynamics create variety in organisational routines

The question "what causes variety in organisational routines" is of considerable interest to organisational scholars, and one to which this thesis seeks to answer. To this end an evolutionary theory of change is advanced which holds that the dynamics of selection, adaptation and retention explain the creation of variety in organisational routines. A longitudinal, multi-level, multi-case analysis is undertaken in this thesis, using multiple data collection strategies. In each case, different types of variety were identified, according to a typology, together with how selection, adaptation and retention contribute to variety in a positive or negative sense. Methodologically, the thesis makes a contribution to our understanding of variety, as certain types of variety only become evident when examined by specific types of research design. The research also makes a theoretical contribution by explaining how selection, adaptation and retention individually and collectively contribute to variety in organisational routines. Moreover, showing that routines could be stable, diverse, adaptive and dynamic at the same time; is a significant, and novel, theoretical contribution.

Assessment of flood-related recharge to alluvial aquifers of an irrigated catchment following extended drought conditions using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia.

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland, Australia, hosts an economically significant alluvial aquifer system which has been impacted by prolonged drought conditions (~1997 to ~ 2009). Throughout this time, the system was under continued groundwater extraction, resulting in severe aquifer depletion. By 2008, much of the aquifer was at <30% of storage but some relief occurred with rains in early 2009. However, between December 2010 and January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding, which generated significant aquifer recharge. In order to understand the spatial and temporal controls of groundwater recharge in the alluvium, a detailed 3D lithological property model of gravels, sands and clays was developed using GOCAD software. The spatial distribution of recharge throughout the catchment was assessed using hydrograph data from about 400 groundwater observation wells screened at the base of the alluvium. Water levels from these bores were integrated into a catchment-wide 3D geological model using the 3D geological modelling software GOCAD; the model highlights the complexity of recharge mechanisms. To support this analysis, groundwater tracers (e.g. major and minor ions, stable isotopes, 3H and 14C) were used as independent verification. The use of these complementary methods has allowed the identification of zones where alluvial recharge primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. However, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium, rainfall recharge and discharge from the underlying basement into the alluvium are the primary recharge mechanisms of the alluvium. This is indicated by the absence of any response to the flood, as well as the observed old radiocarbon ages and distinct basement water chemistry signatures at these locations. Within the 3D geological model, integration of water chemistry and time-series displays of water level surfaces before and after the flood suggests that the spatial variations of the flood response in the alluvium are primarily controlled by the valley morphology and lithological variations within the alluvium. The integration of time-series of groundwater level surfaces in the 3D geological model also enables the quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined sections of this alluvial aquifer during drought and following flood events. The 3D representation and analysis of hydraulic and recharge information has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D approach. For example, while many studies focus on singular aspects of catchment dynamics and groundwater-surface water interactions, the 3D approach is capable of integrating multiple types of information (topography, geological, hydraulic, water chemistry and spatial) into a single representation which provides valuable insights into the major factors controlling aquifer processes.

Excess power circulation in distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

Investigating the dynamics of the psychological contract : how and why individuals' contract beliefs change

The overall objective of this thesis is to explore how and why the content of individuals' psychological contracts changes over time. The contract is generally understood as "individual beliefs, shaped by the organisation, regarding the terms of an exchange agreement between individuals and their organisation" (Rousseau, 1995, p. 9). With an overall study sampling frame of 320 graduate organisational newcomers, a mixed method longitudinal research design comprised of three sequential, inter-related studies is employed in order to capture the change process. From the 15 semi-structured interviews conducted in Study 1, the key findings included identifying a relatively high degree of mutuality between employees' and their managers' reciprocal contract beliefs around the time of organisational entry. Also, at this time, individuals had developed specific components of their contract content through a mix of social network information (regarding broader employment expectations) and perceptions of various elements of their particular organisation's reputation (for more firm-specific expectations). Study 2 utilised a four-wave survey approach (available to the full sampling frame) over the 14 months following organisational entry to explore the 'shape' of individuals' contract change trajectories and the role of four theorised change predictors in driving these trajectories. The predictors represented an organisational-level informational cue (perceptions of corporate reputation), a dyadic-level informational cue (perceptions of manager-employee relationship quality) and two individual difference variables (affect and hardiness). Through the use of individual growth modelling, the findings showed differences in the general change patterns across contract content components of perceived employer (exhibiting generally quadratic change patterns) and employee (exhibiting generally no-change patterns) obligations. Further, individuals differentially used the predictor variables to construct beliefs about specific contract content. While both organisational- and dyadic-level cues were focused upon to construct employer obligation beliefs, organisational-level cues and individual difference variables were focused upon to construct employee obligation beliefs. Through undertaking 26 semi-structured interviews, Study 3 focused upon gaining a richer understanding of why participants' contracts changed, or otherwise, over the study period, with a particular focus upon the roles of breach and violation. Breach refers to an employee's perception that an employer obligation has not been met and violation refers to the negative and affective employee reactions which may ensue following a breach. The main contribution of these findings was identifying that subsequent to a breach or violation event a range of 'remediation effects' could be activated by employees which, depending upon their effectiveness, served to instigate either breach or contract repair or both. These effects mostly instigated broader contract repair and were generally cognitive strategies enacted by an individual to re-evaluate the breach situation and re-focus upon other positive aspects of the employment relationship. As such, the findings offered new evidence for a clear distinction between remedial effects which serve to only repair the breach (and thus the contract) and effects which only repair the contract more broadly; however, when effective, both resulted in individuals again viewing their employment relationships positively. Overall, in response to the overarching research question of this thesis, how and why individuals' psychological contract beliefs change, individuals do indeed draw upon various information sources, particularly at the organisational-level, as cues or guides in shaping their contract content. Further, the 'shapes' of the changes in beliefs about employer and employee obligations generally follow different, and not necessarily linear, trajectories over time. Finally, both breach and violation and also remedial actions, which address these occurrences either by remedying the breach itself (and thus the contract) or the contract only, play central roles in guiding individuals' contract changes to greater or lesser degrees. The findings from the thesis provide both academics and practitioners with greater insights into how employees construct their contract beliefs over time, the salient informational cues used to do this and how the effects of breach and violation can be mitigated through creating an environment which facilitates the use of effective remediation strategies.

An approach for current balancing in distribution networks with rooftop PVs

Current unbalance is a significant power quality problem in distribution networks. This problem increases further with the increased penetration of single-phase photovoltaic cells. In this paper, a new approach is developed for current unbalance reduction in medium voltage distribution networks. The method is based on utilization of three single-phase voltage source converters connected in delta configuration between the phases. Each converter is controlled to function as a varying capacitor. The combination of the load and the compensator will result in a balanced load with unity power factor. The efficacy of the proposed current unbalance reduction concept is verified through dynamic simulations in PSCAD/EMTDC.

Distribution feeder loads classification and decomposition

Load in distribution networks is normally measured at the 11kV supply points; little or no information is known about the type of customers and their contributions to the load. This paper proposes statistical methods to decompose an unknown distribution feeder load to its customer load sector/subsector profiles. The approach used in this paper should assist electricity suppliers in economic load management, strategic planning and future network reinforcements.

The spatial distribution of rodent damage in Australian macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) orchards

The Black Rat (Rattus rattus), a global pest within the macadamia production industry, causes up to 30% crop damage in Australian orchards. During early stages of production in Australia, research demonstrated the importance of non crop adjacent habitats as significant in affecting the patterns of crop damage seen throughout orchards. Where once rodent damage was limited to the outside edges of orchard blocks, growers are now reporting finding crop damage throughout entire orchards. This study therefore aims to explore the spatial patterns of rodent distribution and damage now occurring in Australian macadamia orchards. We show that rodent damage and rodent distribution in these newer production regions differ from that shown in previous Australian research. Previous Australian research has shown damage patterns which were associated with the edges of orchard blocks however this study demonstrates a more widespread damage distribution. In the current study there is no relationship between rodent damage and the orchard edge. Arboreal rodent nests were identified within these newer orchard systems, suggesting rodents are residing within the tree component of the orchard system and not dependent on adjacent non-crop habitat for shelter. Results from this study confirm that rodents have modified their nesting and foraging behaviour in newer orchards systems in Australia. We suggest that this is a response of increased and prolonged availability of macadamia nuts in newer production regions enabling populations to be maintained throughout the year. Management strategies will require modification if control is to be achieved.

Wind-energy based path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles using Markov decision processes

Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to extend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.

Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.