Country strategic risk and knowledge management:a proposed framework for improvement

The world is in a period of reflection about social and economic models. In particular there is a review of the capacities that countries have for improving their competitiveness. The experiences in a society are part of the process of learning and knowledge development in that society: especially in the development of communities. Risks appear continually in the process of the search for, analysis and implementation of solutions to problems. This paper discusses the issues related to the improvement of productivity and knowledge in a society, the risk that poor or even declining productivity brings to the communities and the need to develop people that support the decision making process in communities.The approach to improve the communities' development is through the design of a research programme in knowledge management based on distance learning. The research programme implementation is designed to provide value added to the decisions in communities in order to use collective intelligence, solve collective problems and to achieve goals that support local solutions. This program is organized and focused on four intelligence areas, artificial, collective, sentient and strategic. These areas are productivity related and seek to reduce the risk of lack of competitiveness through formal and integrated problem analysis. In a country such as Colombia, where different regions face varying problems to solve and there is a low level of infrastructure, the factors of production such as knowledge, skilled labour and "soft" infrastructure can be a way to develop the society.This entails using the local physical resources adequately for creating value with the support of people in the region to lead the analysis and search for solutions in the communities. The paper will describe the framework and programme and suggest how it could be applied in Colombia.

Fiber bragg gratings:advances in fabrication process and tools

Successful commercialization of a technology such as Fiber Bragg Gratings requires the ability to manufacture devices repeatably, quickly and at low cost. Although the first report of photorefractive gratings was in 1978 it was not until 1993, when phase mask fabrication was demonstrated, that this became feasible. More recently, draw tower fabrication on a production level and grating writing through the polymer jacket have been realized; both important developments since they preserve the intrinsic strength of the fiber. Potentially the most significant recent development has been femtosecond laser inscription of gratings. Although not yet a commercial technology, it provides the means of writing multiple gratings in the optical core providing directional sensing capability in a single fiber. Femtosecond processing can also be used to machine the fiber to produce micronscale slots and holes enhancing the interaction between the light in the core and the surrounding medium. © 2011 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficiency improvement of non-uniformly-aged PV arrays

The utilization of solar energy by photovoltaic (PV) systems have received much research and development (R&D) attention across the globe. In the past decades, a large number of PV array have been installed. Since the installed PV arrays often operate in harsh environments, non-uniform aging can occur and impact adversely on the performance of PV systems, especially in the middle and late periods of their service life. Due to the high cost of replacing aged PV modules by new modules, it is appealing to improve energy efficiency of aged PV systems. For this purpose, this paper presents a PV module reconfiguration strategy to achieve the maximum power generation from non-uniformly aged PV arrays without significant investment. The proposed reconfiguration strategy is based on the cell-unit structure of PV modules, the operating voltage limit of gird-connected converter, and the resulted bucket-effect of the maximum short circuit current. The objectives are to analyze all the potential reorganization options of the PV modules, find the maximum power point and express it in a proposition. This proposition is further developed into a novel implementable algorithm to calculate the maximum power generation and the corresponding reconfiguration of the PV modules. The immediate benefits from this reconfiguration are the increased total power output and maximum power point voltage information for global maximum power point tracking (MPPT). A PV array simulation model is used to illustrate the proposed method under three different cases. Furthermore, an experimental rig is built to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed method will open an effective approach for condition-based maintenance of emerging aging PV arrays.

A lean elvek alkalmazása az egészségügyi folyamatok fejlesztésében = Applying lean principles in healthcare process development

A fejlett társadalmak egészségügyi szolgáltató rendszerei napjainkban kettős kihívással néznek szembe: miközben a társadalom a szolgáltatási színvonal emelkedését, a hibák számának a csökkenését várja el, addig a költségvetési terhek miatt a költségcsökkentés is feltétlenül szükséges. Ez a kihívás nagyságában összevethető azzal, amellyel az USA autóipara nézett szembe az 1970-es évektől. A megoldást az autóipar esetében a konkurens „lean” menedzsment elvek és eszközök megértése és alkalmazása jelentette. A tanulmány arra keresi a választ, hogy vajon lehetséges-e ennek a megoldásnak az alkalmazása az egészségügy esetében is. A cikk az egészségügy problémájának bemutatása után tárgyalja a lean menedzsment kialakulását és hogy milyen módon került köztudatba. A tanulmány második felében a szakirodalomban fellelhető, a témával kapcsolatos tapasztalatokat foglalja össze, majd levonja a következtetéseket. = In developed societies healthcare service systems are facing double challenge; society expects service level to rise and the number of mistakes to drop, but at the same time, because of the overloaded budgets, cutting cost is also absolutely necessary. This challenge compares to the one the US automotive industry was facing in the 1970-s. In case of the automotive industry the solution was the comprehension and application of the principles and the tools of lean management. This study aims to answer the question whether it is possible to apply this solution also in the case of the healthcare system. The article first introduces the problems in the healthcare system, than describes the formation of lean management concept and its wide spread. The second half of the study summarizes the available knowledge in the literature and drives conclusions.

Cost-benefit analysis of climate change – A methodological overview of recent studies

Global warming16 has already begun. Climate change has become a self-propelling and self-reinforcing process as a result of the externality associated with greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. Although it is an externality related to humankind, according to a number of unique features we should distinguish it from other externalities. Climate change is a global phenomenon in its causes and consequences. The long-term and persistent impacts of climate change will likely continue over centuries without further anthropogenic mechanism. The preindustrial (equilibrium) level of GHG concentration in the atmosphere cannot be restored since it is irreversible, but if we do not stabilise the actual level of atmospheric concentration, the situation will become much worse than it is now. Assessing the impacts of climate change requires careful considerations because of the pervasive uncertainties and risks associated with it.

Systematic review and analysis of evidences on clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of biological drugs for the treatment of Ankylosing Spondylitis

Technology: Infliximab and comparator biological such as adalimumab, etanercept, golimumab. Conditions: Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) Issue: Infliximab is registered to be used in patients with AS. The aim of the Report is to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of infliximab and comparator biologicals for the treatment of adult AS. Methods: Systematic literature review and analysis as well as meta-analysis (direct and indirect comparison) of published randomised controlled clinical trials (RCT) were performed, all relevant health economics literature were identified ad analysed. Results: Clinical efficacy of biological therapies is based on good clinical evidences regarding to all clinical efficacy endpoints (ASAS20, ASAS40, ASAS 5/6, and BASDAI 50% response). Altogether, 22 trials are included in our meta-analysis, 12 infliximab, 3 adalimumab studies, 6 etanercept and 1 golimumab. Efficacy of biological treatments for the treatment of AS has been established by clinical scientific evidences, significant improvement at all outcomes considered was confirmed. According to the results of indirect comparison, there were no significant difference between biological treatments and placebo in terms of safety and tolerability endpoints. We found no significant difference between the clinical efficacy and safety of infliximab, adalimumab, etanercept and golimumab therapies. Cost-utility analysis of adalimumab and/or infliximab, etanercept and golimumab treatment for AS were performed in the UK, Canada, The Netherlands, Germany, Spain and France. There are no cost-utility studies from Eastern Central Europe. Implications for decision making: Efficacy of infliximab and comparator biologicals for the treatment of Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) was proved by clinical evidence, significant improvement at all outcomes considered was confirmed. We found no significant differences in efficacy and safety of different biological treatments. Health economics results suggest that biological therapies are cost-effective alternatives for the treatment of AS in group of developed high income countries. There is a lack of health economics results in Central-Eastern European countries however these data are more and more required by governments and funders as part of the company economic dossiers.

Cost of illness in benign prostatic hyperplasia: A review

The paper provides a systematic review on the cost-of-illness studies in an age-associated condition with high prevalence, benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), published in Medline between 2005 and 2015. Overall 11 studies were included, which were conducted in 8 countries. In the US, the annual direct medical costs per patient ranged from $255 to $5,729, while in Europe from €253 to €1,251. In 2008, in the UK total annual direct medical costs of BPH were £180.8 million at national level. In the US, overall costs of BPH management in the private sector were estimated at $3.9 billion annually, of which $500 million was attributable to productivity loss (year 1999). Due to demographic factors and possible surgical innovations in the field of urology, the costs of BPH are likely to increase in the future. Over the next decade the age of retirement is projected to rise, consequently, the indirect costs related to aging-associated conditions such as BPH are expected to soar. To promote the transparent and cost-effective management of BPH, development of rational clinical guidelines would be essential that may lead to significant improvement in quality of care as well as reduction in healthcare expenditure.

The nitrate to ammonia and ceramic (NAC) process for the denitration and immobilization of low-level radioactive liquid waste (LLW)

Hazardous radioactive liquid waste is the legacy of more than 50 years of plutonium production associated with the United States' nuclear weapons program. It is estimated that more than 245,000 tons of nitrate wastes are stored at facilities such as the single-shell tanks (SST) at the Hanford Site in the state of Washington, and the Melton Valley storage tanks at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee. In order to develop an innovative, new technology for the destruction and immobilization of nitrate-based radioactive liquid waste, the United State Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the research project which resulted in the technology known as the Nitrate to Ammonia and Ceramic (NAC) process. However, inasmuch as the nitrate anion is highly mobile and difficult to immobilize, especially in relatively porous cement-based grout which has been used to date as a method for the immobilization of liquid waste, it presents a major obstacle to environmental clean-up initiatives. Thus, in an effort to contribute to the existing body of knowledge and enhance the efficacy of the NAC process, this research involved the experimental measurement of the rheological and heat transfer behaviors of the NAC product slurry and the determination of the optimal operating parameters for the continuous NAC chemical reaction process. Test results indicate that the NAC product slurry exhibits a typical non-Newtonian flow behavior. Correlation equations for the slurry's rheological properties and heat transfer rate in a pipe flow have been developed; these should prove valuable in the design of a full-scale NAC processing plant. The 20-percent slurry exhibited a typical dilatant (shear thickening) behavior and was in the turbulent flow regime due to its lower viscosity. The 40-percent slurry exhibited a typical pseudoplastic (shear thinning) behavior and remained in the laminar flow regime throughout its experimental range. The reactions were found to be more efficient in the lower temperature range investigated. With respect to leachability, the experimental final NAC ceramic waste form is comparable to the final product of vitrification, the technology chosen by DOE to treat these wastes. As the NAC process has the potential of reducing the volume of nitrate-based radioactive liquid waste by as much as 70 percent, it not only promises to enhance environmental remediation efforts but also effect substantial cost savings. ^

Assessing the effectiveness of two-year banking and insurance technology programs of junior colleges in Taiwan, R.O.C.: An application of the Context Input Process Product (CIPP) evaluation model

The purpose of this descriptive study was to evaluate the banking and insurance technology curriculum at ten junior colleges in Taiwan. The study focused on curriculum, curriculum materials, instruction, support services, student achievement and job performance. Data was collected from a diverse sample of faculty, students, alumni, and employers. ^ Questionnaires on the evaluation of curriculum at technical junior colleges were developed for use in this specific case. Data were collected from the sample described above and analyzed utilizing ANOVA, T-Tests and crosstabulations. Findings are presented which indicate that there is room for improvement in terms of meeting individual students' needs. ^ Using Stufflebeam's CIPP model for curriculum evaluation it was determined that the curriculum was adequate in terms of the knowledge and skills imparted to students. However, students were dissatisfied with the rigidity of the curriculum and the lack of opportunity to satisfy the individual needs of students. Employers were satisfied with both the academic preparation of students and their on the job performance. ^ In sum, the curriculum of the two-year banking and insurance technology programs of junior college in Taiwan was shown to have served adequately preparing a work force to enter businesses. It is now time to look toward the future and adapt the curriculum and instruction for the future needs of the ever evolving high-tech society. ^

Capacity-based cost modeling for light rail and bus rapid transit systems

Choosing between Light Rail Transit (LRT) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is often controversial and not an easy task for transportation planners who are contemplating the upgrade of their public transportation services. These two transit systems provide comparable services for medium-sized cities from the suburban neighborhood to the Central Business District (CBD) and utilize similar right-of-way (ROW) categories. The research is aimed at developing a method to assist transportation planners and decision makers in determining the most feasible system between LRT and BRT. ^ Cost estimation is a major factor when evaluating a transit system. Typically, LRT is more expensive to build and implement than BRT, but has significantly lower Operating and Maintenance (OM) costs than BRT. This dissertation examines the factors impacting capacity and costs, and develops cost models, which are a capacity-based cost estimate for the LRT and BRT systems. Various ROW categories and alignment configurations of the systems are also considered in the developed cost models. Kikuchi's fleet size model (1985) and cost allocation method are used to develop the cost models to estimate the capacity and costs. ^ The comparison between LRT and BRT are complicated due to many possible transportation planning and operation scenarios. In the end, a user-friendly computer interface integrated with the established capacity-based cost models, the LRT and BRT Cost Estimator (LBCostor), was developed by using Microsoft Visual Basic language to facilitate the process and will guide the users throughout the comparison operations. The cost models and the LBCostor can be used to analyze transit volumes, alignments, ROW configurations, number of stops and stations, headway, size of vehicle, and traffic signal timing at the intersections. The planners can make the necessary changes and adjustments depending on their operating practices. ^

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Efficient asynchronous scheduling algorithms for cost-effective buffered crossbar switches

Buffered crossbar switches have recently attracted considerable attention as the next generation of high speed interconnects. They are a special type of crossbar switches with an exclusive buffer at each crosspoint of the crossbar. They demonstrate unique advantages over traditional unbuffered crossbar switches, such as high throughput, low latency, and asynchronous packet scheduling. However, since crosspoint buffers are expensive on-chip memories, it is desired that each crosspoint has only a small buffer. This dissertation proposes a series of practical algorithms and techniques for efficient packet scheduling for buffered crossbar switches. To reduce the hardware cost of such switches and make them scalable, we considered partially buffered crossbars, whose crosspoint buffers can be of an arbitrarily small size. Firstly, we introduced a hybrid scheme called Packet-mode Asynchronous Scheduling Algorithm (PASA) to schedule best effort traffic. PASA combines the features of both distributed and centralized scheduling algorithms and can directly handle variable length packets without Segmentation And Reassembly (SAR). We showed by theoretical analysis that it achieves 100% throughput for any admissible traffic in a crossbar with a speedup of two. Moreover, outputs in PASA have a large probability to avoid the more time-consuming centralized scheduling process, and thus make fast scheduling decisions. Secondly, we proposed the Fair Asynchronous Segment Scheduling (FASS) algorithm to handle guaranteed performance traffic with explicit flow rates. FASS reduces the crosspoint buffer size by dividing packets into shorter segments before transmission. It also provides tight constant performance guarantees by emulating the ideal Generalized Processor Sharing (GPS) model. Furthermore, FASS requires no speedup for the crossbar, lowering the hardware cost and improving the switch capacity. Thirdly, we presented a bandwidth allocation scheme called Queue Length Proportional (QLP) to apply FASS to best effort traffic. QLP dynamically obtains a feasible bandwidth allocation matrix based on the queue length information, and thus assists the crossbar switch to be more work-conserving. The feasibility and stability of QLP were proved, no matter whether the traffic distribution is uniform or non-uniform. Hence, based on bandwidth allocation of QLP, FASS can also achieve 100% throughput for best effort traffic in a crossbar without speedup.

Comprehensive process maps for synthesizing high density aluminum oxide-carbon nanotube coatings by plasma spraying for improved mechanical and wear properties

Plasma sprayed aluminum oxide ceramic coating is widely used due to its outstanding wear, corrosion, and thermal shock resistance. But porosity is the integral feature in the plasma sprayed coating which exponentially degrades its properties. In this study, process maps were developed to obtain Al2O3-CNT composite coatings with the highest density (i.e. lowest porosity) and improved mechanical and wear properties. Process map is defined as a set of relationships that correlates large number of plasma processing parameters to the coating properties. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were added as reinforcement to Al2O 3 coating to improve the fracture toughness and wear resistance. Two novel powder processing approaches viz spray drying and chemical vapor growth were adopted to disperse CNTs in Al2O3 powder. The degree of CNT dispersion via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) was superior to spray drying but CVD could not synthesize powder in large amount. Hence optimization of plasma processing parameters and process map development was limited to spray dried Al2O3 powder containing 0, 4 and 8 wt. % CNTs. An empirical model using Pareto diagram was developed to link plasma processing parameters with the porosity of coating. Splat morphology as a function of plasma processing parameter was also studied to understand its effect on mechanical properties. Addition of a mere 1.5 wt. % CNTs via CVD technique showed ∼27% and ∼24% increase in the elastic modulus and fracture toughness respectively. Improved toughness was attributed to combined effect of lower porosity and uniform dispersion of CNTs which promoted the toughening by CNT bridging, crack deflection and strong CNT/Al2O3 interface. Al2O 3-8 wt. % CNT coating synthesized using spray dried powder showed 73% improvement in the fracture toughness when porosity reduced from 4.7% to 3.0%. Wear resistance of all coatings at room and elevated temperatures (573 K, 873 K) showed improvement with CNT addition and decreased porosity. Such behavior was due to improved mechanical properties, protective film formation due to tribochemical reaction, and CNT bridging between the splats. Finally, process maps correlating porosity content, CNT content, mechanical properties, and wear properties were developed.