Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

Avances en algoritmos de estimación de distribuciones. Alternativas en el aprendizaje y representación de problemas

131 p.: graf.

Coastal engineering investigation at Jupiter Inlet, Florida

A fixed-bed hydraulic model of Jupiter Inlet, Florida, was constructed for the purpose of testing measures designed to remedy problems of sediment erosion and deposition in the inlet area. Both tide-induced flows as well as waves were simulated in the model which was built on an undistorted scale of 1:49. Model verification was based on prototype measurements of waves, tides and currents. Results have been interpreted in terms of the influence of various proposed remedial schemes on flow velocity magnitude, distribution and wave height at various locations within the study area. A stability parameter has been utilized for evaluating the degree of sediment erosion or deposition at a given location. Various structural solutions were examined in the model. It is proposed that, in the initial phase of solution implementation, sediment removal/nourishment methods be used primarily to mitigate the existing problems. New structures, as per model test results, should be installed under subsequent phases, only if sediment management procedures do not prove to be adequate. The currently followed procedure of periodic sand trap dredging may be extended to include the new dredging/nourishment requirements. (PDF contains 245 pages.)

Use of Sediment Bioassays to Verify Efficacy of Caulerpa taxifolia Eradication Treatments

Infestations of the marine macrophytic alga Caulerpa taxifolia were discovered in Agua Hedionda Lagoon, California in 2000. Rapid response actions included containment under pvc tarps coupled with injection of liquid sodium hypochlorite. To assess the efficacy of these treatments, replicated sediment cores were removed from representative treated sites and transferred to grow-out facilities. Similar cores from uninfested (control) sediments were removed, inoculated with viable explants of C. taxifolia and placed in grow-out facilities. Results from two sampling periods (1 year, 2 years post-treatment) showed that no viable C. taxifolia emerged in cores, and that inoculated “control” sediments supported normal growth. Eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.) seedlings emerged from native seed-banks in “treated” cores, which also supported growth of some invertebrates (annelid worms and hydroids). This study provided essential verification of C. taxifolia eradication efforts, and demonstrates the feasibility of incorporating quality control/quality assurance components in rapid response actions. Results of this study also suggest that seeds of eelgrass are viable for at least two years. (PDF has 9 pages.)

The Empirical Modeling of an Ecosystem

The authors have endeavored to create a verified a-posteriori model of a planktonic ecosystem. Verification of an empirically derived set of first-order, quadratic differential equations proved elusive due to the sensitivity of the model system to changes in initial conditions. Efforts to verify a similarly derived set of linear differential equations were more encouraging, yielding reasonable behavior for half of the ten ecosystem compartments modeled. The well-behaved species models gave indications as to the rate-controlling processes in the ecosystem.

The Geo-DSCM System and Its Application to the Deformation Measurement of Rock Materials

Digital Speckle Correlation Method (DSCM) is a useful tool for whole field deformation measurement, and has been applied to analyze the deformation field of rock materials in recent years. In this paper, a Geo-DSCM system is designed and used to analyse the more complicated problems of rock mechanics, such as damage evolution and failure procedure. A weighted correlation equation is proposed to improve the accuracy of displacement measurement on a heterogeneous deformation field. In addition, a data acquisition system is described that can synchronize with the test machine and can capture speckle image at various speeds during experiment. For verification of the Geo-DSCM system, the failure procedure of a borehole rock structure is inspected and the evolution of the deformation localization is analysed. It is shown that the deformation localization generally initializes at the vulnerable area of the rock structure but may develop in a very complicated way.

Numerical Study on Kerosene Spray in Supersonic Flow

Numerical simulation was conducted to study the kerosene spray characteristics injecting into supersonic cross flow. The verification of the simulation was carried out by experimental Schlieren image, and the agreement was obtained by compared the spray plume pictures. Furthermore, the aerodynamic secondary breakup effect of the supersonic cross flow on the initial droplets was investigated. It was revealed that the initial parent drops were broken up into small drops whose diameter is about O(10) micrometers soon after they entered into the supersonic cross flow. During the appropriate range of initial drop size, the parent droplets would be broken up into small drops with the same magnitude diameter no matter how large the initial drops SMD was.

Determination of plastic properties by instrumented spherical indentation: Expanding cavity model and similarity solution approach

The present paper aims to develop a robust spherical indentation-based method to extract material plastic properties. For this purpose, a new consideration of-piling-up effect is incorporated into the expanding cavity model; an extensive numerical study on the similarity Solution has also been performed. As a consequence, two semi-theoretical relations between the indentation response and material plastic properties are derived, with which plastic properties of materials can be identified from a single instrumented spherical indentation curve, the advantage being that this approach no longer needs estimations of contact radius with given elastic modulus. Moreover, the inconvenience in using multiple indenters with different tip angles can be avoided. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses show that the present algorithm is reliable. Also, by experimental verification performed oil three typical materials, good agreement of the material properties between those obtained from the reverse algorithm and experimental data is obtained.

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

Senado Federal e Terceirização: Estudo da Retenção de Talentos em Empresas Terceirizadas

Avalia a percepção de colaboradores e gestores das empresas terceirizadas pelo Senado Federal quanto à retenção de talentos, ou seja, a manutenção, no quadro destas empresas, de profissionais que se destacam e que merecem permanecer atuando em uma instituição legislativa. A metodologia contemplou a pesquisa bibliográfica sobre o tema “retenção de talentos”, bem como o estudo documental da relação entre Senado Federal e as empresas terceirizadas. Além disso, foi realizado levantamento por meio de questionário junto a 84 colaboradores das 15 empresas terceirizadas prestando serviços, atualmente, no Senado, bem como entrevistas com os gestores destas organizações. Os resultados apontaram para a contradição entre a percepção de colaboradores e gestores no que tange à retenção de talentos e a verificação de que inexistem medidas efetivas para que bons colaboradores sejam mantidos nas empresas, bem como a verificação de que não há percepção, por parte dos colaboradores, de que sejam valorizados pelas organizações terceirizadas.

Adiabatic shear localization: occurrence, theories, and applications

Potential applications of reproductive and molecular genetic technologies in the selective breeding of aquaculture species

The use of reproductive and genetic technologies can increase the efficiency of selective breeding programs for aquaculture species. Four technologies are considered, namely: marker-assisted selection, DNA fingerprinting, in-vitro fertilization, and cryopreservation. Marker-assisted selection can result in greater genetic gain, particularly for traits difficult or expensive to measure, than conventional selection methods, but its application is currently limited by lack of high density linkage maps and by the high cost of genotyping. DNA fingerprinting is most useful for genetic tagging and parentage verification. Both in-vitro fertilization and cryopreservation techniques can increase the accuracy of selection while controlling accumulation of inbreeding in long-term selection programs. Currently, the cost associated with the utilization of reproductive and genetic techniques is possibly the most important factor limiting their use in genetic improvement programs for aquatic species.

State of Technology for In Situ Measures of Salinity Using Conductive Temperature Sensors, Savannah, Georgia, December 3-5, 2007: workshop proceedings

This Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) workshop was convened to assess the availability and state of development of conductivity-temperature sensors that can meet the needs of coastal monitoring and management communities. Rased on the discussion, there are presently a number of commercial sensor options available, with a wide range of package configurations suitable for deployment in a range of coastal environments. However, some of the central questions posed in the workshop planning documents were left somewhat unresolved. The workshop description emphasized coastal management requirements and, in particular, whether less expensive, easily deployed, lower-resolution instruments might serve many management needs. While several participants expressed interest in this class of conductivity-temperature sensors, based on input from the manufacturers, it is not clear that simply relaxing the present level of resolution of existing instruments will result in instruments of significantly lower unit cost. Conductivity-temperature sensors are available near or under the $1,000 unit cost that was operationally defined at the workshop as a breakpoint for what might be considered to be a "low cost" sensor. For the manufacturers, a key consideration before undertaking the effort to develop lower cost sensors is whether there will be a significant market. In terms of defining "low cost," it was also emphasized that the "life cycle costs" for a given instrument must be considered (e.g., including personnel costs for deployment and maintenance). An adequate market survey to demonstrate likely applications and a viable market for lower cost sensors is needed. Another topic for the workshop was the introduction to the proposed ACT verification for conductivity-temperature sensors. Following a summary of the process as envisioned by ACT, initial feedback was solicited. Protocol development will be pursued further in a workshop involving ACT personnel and conductivity-temperature sensor manufacturers.[PDF contains 28 pages]

Gegenüberstellung von mathematisch-physikalischer Modellierung und Messungen an geschleppten fischereitechnischen Systemen

When drafting a new model of a towed technical system for fisheries (trawl, towed TV gear or similar), and also when measuring an existing and already tested system it is not easy to foresee of practical behaviour, which depends of various parameters. The measuring programme for recording all data needs a lot of time and money, and also has some limitations. Therefore we developed for such systems mathematical-physical models, which allow a complex calculation. Their real value, however, results only from practical verification. During the cruise no. 222 of “Walther Herwig III” in November 2000 comparative investigations for 2concrete systems were carried out. This was done in cooperation with the University in Rostock, where such models are being developed and computerized. One of the systems mesasured was a pelagic herring trawl and the other one the towed TV gear for underwater observations of the Institute for Fishery Technology and Fish Quality. The correspondence between model calculation and measurements was very high for both systems.

Strategies for transfer of aquaculture technology to small-scale fish farmers in Nigeria

There is increasing awareness of aquaculture in Nigeria today for a number of reasons namely: water pollution, declining catch and the awareness of the attractiveness of aquaculture as an investment area and a pivotal point for national development. The development of aquaculture in Nigeria, requires the building up of institutions at the grassroot level and the formulation of policies and programmes for the small fishfarmer. This of course would be backed up by a sound technology generation, verification and packaging, dissemination and use programme