Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

The design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the Replicated Modular Estuarine Mesocosm

Perhaps the most difficult job of the ecotoxicologist is extrapolating data calculated from laboratory experiments with high precision and accuracy into the real world of highly-dynamics aquatic environments. The establishment of baseline laboratory toxicity testing data for individual compounds and ecologically important and field studies serve as a precursor to ecosystem level studies needed for ecological risk assessment. The first stage in the field portion of risk assessment is the determination of actual environmental concentrations of the contaminant being studied and matching those concentrations with laboratory toxicity tests. Risk estimates can be produced via risk quotients that would determine the probability that adverse effects may occur. In this first stage of risk assessment, environmental realism is often not achieved. This is due, in part, to the fact that single-species laboratory toxicity tests, while highly controlled, do not account for the complex interactions (Chemical, physical, and biological) that take place in the natural environment. By controlling as many variables in the laboratory as possible, an experiment can be produced in such a fashion that real effects from a compound can be determined for a particular test organism. This type of approach obviously makes comparison with real world data most difficult. Conversely, field oriented studies fall short in the interpretation of ecological risk assessment because of low statistical power, lack of adequate replicaiton, and the enormous amount of time and money needed to perform such studies. Unlike a controlled laboratory bioassay, many other stressors other than the chemical compound in question affect organisms in the environment. These stressors range from natural occurrences (such as changes in temperature, salinity, and community interactions) to other confounding anthropogenic inputs. Therefore, an improved aquatic toxicity test that will enhance environmental realism and increase the accuracy of future ecotoxicological risk assessments is needed.

Indigenous construction of fishing boats at Versova village in Maharashtra State

Versova, one of the 23 fishing villages in the district of Greater Bombay, is a major fishing centre. During the last three decades mechanisation of fishing boats received a tremendous boost in the state specially in and around Bombay resulting in higher income and gainful employment to fishermen. Indigenous construction of fishing boats at Versova contributes to the marine fisheries development. Inspite of certain constraints in construction activities, training of artisans in boat construction would ultimately help in the economic growth of the village.

The design and construction of flat rectangular otter boards for bottom trawling: a review

The design and construction of the otter board is a subject of great importance for economy in trawling. This review incorporates a historical resume tracing the change and development• of otter boards. The size of the otter board and its relationship with the horse power of the engine and size of the net and the methods of rigging are dealt with. The factors influencing the horizontal spread are discussed. The effect of the angles of attack, heel and tilt and the ground reaction on the force coefficients have been reviewed and discussed with particular reference to flat rectangular otter boards used for bottom trawling. A short account of other designs of otter boards used for improved efficiency is given. Suggestion for improving the efficacy of otter boards based on the work hitherto done has been made. The contributions relating to the various aspects of design and performance of trawl boards carried out till 1969 have been considered.