918 resultados para confounding variable
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Hemizygous deletion of 17p (del(17p)) has been identified as a variable associated with poor prognosis in myeloma, although its impact in the context of thalidomide therapy is not well described. The clinical outcome of 85 myeloma patients with del(17p) treated in a clinical trial incorporating both conventional and thalidomide-based induction therapies was examined. The clinical impact of deletion, low expression, and mutation of TP53 was also determined. Patients with del(17p) did not have inferior response rates compared to patients without del(17p), but, despite this, del(17p) was associated with impaired overall survival (OS) (median OS 26.6 vs. 48.5 months, P <0.001). Within the del(17p) group, thalidomide induction therapy was associated with improved response rates compared to conventional therapy, but there was no impact on OS. Thalidomide maintenance was associated with impaired OS, although our analysis suggests that this effect may have been due to confounding variables. A minimally deleted region on 17p13.1 involving 17 genes was identified, of which only TP53 and SAT2 were underexpressed. TP53 was mutated in <1% in patients without del(17p) and in 27% of patients with del(17p). The higher TP53 mutation rate in samples with del(17p) suggests a role for TP53 in these clinical outcomes. In conclusion, del(17p) defined a patient group associated with short survival in myeloma, and although thalidomide induction therapy was associated with improved response rates, it did not impact OS, suggesting that alternative therapeutic strategies are required for this group. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Estimating the effect of state-level gun purchasing policy on county-level firearm suicide mortality
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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08
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L’un des problèmes importants en apprentissage automatique est de déterminer la complexité du modèle à apprendre. Une trop grande complexité mène au surapprentissage, ce qui correspond à trouver des structures qui n’existent pas réellement dans les données, tandis qu’une trop faible complexité mène au sous-apprentissage, c’est-à-dire que l’expressivité du modèle est insuffisante pour capturer l’ensemble des structures présentes dans les données. Pour certains modèles probabilistes, la complexité du modèle se traduit par l’introduction d’une ou plusieurs variables cachées dont le rôle est d’expliquer le processus génératif des données. Il existe diverses approches permettant d’identifier le nombre approprié de variables cachées d’un modèle. Cette thèse s’intéresse aux méthodes Bayésiennes nonparamétriques permettant de déterminer le nombre de variables cachées à utiliser ainsi que leur dimensionnalité. La popularisation des statistiques Bayésiennes nonparamétriques au sein de la communauté de l’apprentissage automatique est assez récente. Leur principal attrait vient du fait qu’elles offrent des modèles hautement flexibles et dont la complexité s’ajuste proportionnellement à la quantité de données disponibles. Au cours des dernières années, la recherche sur les méthodes d’apprentissage Bayésiennes nonparamétriques a porté sur trois aspects principaux : la construction de nouveaux modèles, le développement d’algorithmes d’inférence et les applications. Cette thèse présente nos contributions à ces trois sujets de recherches dans le contexte d’apprentissage de modèles à variables cachées. Dans un premier temps, nous introduisons le Pitman-Yor process mixture of Gaussians, un modèle permettant l’apprentissage de mélanges infinis de Gaussiennes. Nous présentons aussi un algorithme d’inférence permettant de découvrir les composantes cachées du modèle que nous évaluons sur deux applications concrètes de robotique. Nos résultats démontrent que l’approche proposée surpasse en performance et en flexibilité les approches classiques d’apprentissage. Dans un deuxième temps, nous proposons l’extended cascading Indian buffet process, un modèle servant de distribution de probabilité a priori sur l’espace des graphes dirigés acycliques. Dans le contexte de réseaux Bayésien, ce prior permet d’identifier à la fois la présence de variables cachées et la structure du réseau parmi celles-ci. Un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov est utilisé pour l’évaluation sur des problèmes d’identification de structures et d’estimation de densités. Dans un dernier temps, nous proposons le Indian chefs process, un modèle plus général que l’extended cascading Indian buffet process servant à l’apprentissage de graphes et d’ordres. L’avantage du nouveau modèle est qu’il admet les connections entres les variables observables et qu’il prend en compte l’ordre des variables. Nous présentons un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov avec saut réversible permettant l’apprentissage conjoint de graphes et d’ordres. L’évaluation est faite sur des problèmes d’estimations de densité et de test d’indépendance. Ce modèle est le premier modèle Bayésien nonparamétrique permettant d’apprendre des réseaux Bayésiens disposant d’une structure complètement arbitraire.
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Abstract not available
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El Mercado de Renta Variable en Colombia sigue estando en desarrollo, así como la confianza de los inversionistas a la hora de tomar decisiones de elección de portafolios óptimos de inversión, los cuales le brinden la maximización de los retornos esperados a un mínimo riesgo. Por lo anterior esta investigación explora y conoce más a fondo los sectores que conforman el mercado accionario y determina cual es más rentable que otro, a través del modelo propuesto por Harry Markowitz y teniendo en cuenta los avances a la teoría hecha por Sharpe a través del índice de Sharpe y Betas. Entre los sectores que conforman El Mercado de Renta Variable en Colombia está el Financiero, Materiales, Energía, Consumo Básico Servicios e Industrial; los cuales siguen la misma tendencia bajista que el Índice del Colcap, el cual en los últimos años está rentando negativamente. Por lo tanto con esta investigación el lector e inversionista cuenta con herramientas que aplican el modelo de Markowitz para vislumbrar de acuerdo a datos históricos, los sectores en los cuales se recomienda invertir y en los que por el contrario de acuerdo a la tendencia de debe desistir. Sin embargo, se aclara que esta investigación se basa en datos históricos, tendencias y cálculos matemáticos que pueden diferenciarse de la realidad actual, dado que por aspectos coyunturales económicos, políticos o sociales puede verse afectadas las rentabilidades de las acciones y sectores en los que decida invertir las personas.
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In the last years the need to develop more environmentally friendly and efficient cars as led to the development of several technologies to improve the performance of internal combustion engines, a large part of the innovations are focused in the auxiliary systems of the engine, including, the oil pump, this is an element of great importance in the dynamics of the engine as well a considerable energy consumer. Most solutions for oil pumps to this day are fixed displacement, for medium and high speeds, the pump flow rate is higher than the needs of the engine, this excess flow leads to the need for recirculation of the fluid which represents a waste of energy. Recently, technological advances in this area have led to the creation of variable displacement oil pumps, these have become a 'must have' due to the numerous advantages they bring, although the working principle of vane or piston pumps is relatively well known, the application of this technology for the automotive industry is new and brings new challenges. The focus of this dissertation is to develop a new concept of variable displacement system for automotive oil pumps. The main objective is to obtain a concept that is totally adaptable to existing solutions on the market (engines), both dimensionally as in performance specifications, having at the same time an innovative mechanical system for obtaining variable displacement. The developed design is a vane pump with variable displacement going in line with existing commercial solutions, however, the variation of the eccentricity commonly used to provide an variable displacement delivery is not used, the variable displacement is achieved without varying the eccentricity of the system but with a variation of the length of the pumping chamber. The principle of operation of the pump is different to existing solutions while maintaining the ability to integrate standard parts such as control valves and mechanical safety valves, the pump is compatible with commercial solutions in terms of interfaces for connection between engine systems and pump. A concept prototype of the product was obtained in order to better evaluate the validity of the concept. The developed concept represents an innovation in oil pumps design, being unique in its mechanical system for variable displacement delivery.
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Traffic demand increases are pushing aging ground transportation infrastructures to their theoretical capacity. The result of this demand is traffic bottlenecks that are a major cause of delay on urban freeways. In addition, the queues associated with those bottlenecks increase the probability of a crash while adversely affecting environmental measures such as emissions and fuel consumption. With limited resources available for network expansion, traffic professionals have developed active traffic management systems (ATMS) in an attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of traffic bottlenecks. Among these ATMS strategies, variable speed limits (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) have been gaining international interests for their potential to improve safety, mobility, and environmental measures at freeway bottlenecks. Though previous studies have shown the tremendous potential of variable speed limit (VSL) and VSL paired with ramp metering (VSLRM) control, little guidance has been developed to assist decision makers in the planning phase of a congestion mitigation project that is considering VSL or VSLRM control. To address this need, this study has developed a comprehensive decision/deployment support tool for the application of VSL and VSLRM control in recurrently congested environments. The decision tool will assist practitioners in deciding the most appropriate control strategy at a candidate site, which candidate sites have the most potential to benefit from the suggested control strategy, and how to most effectively design the field deployment of the suggested control strategy at each implementation site. To do so, the tool is comprised of three key modules, (1) Decision Module, (2) Benefits Module, and (3) Deployment Guidelines Module. Each module uses commonly known traffic flow and geometric parameters as inputs to statistical models and empirically based procedures to provide guidance on the application of VSL and VSLRM at each candidate site. These models and procedures were developed from the outputs of simulated experiments, calibrated with field data. To demonstrate the application of the tool, a list of real-world candidate sites were selected from the Maryland State Highway Administration Mobility Report. Here, field data from each candidate site was input into the tool to illustrate the step-by-step process required for efficient planning of VSL or VSLRM control. The output of the tool includes the suggested control system at each site, a ranking of the sites based on the expected benefit-to-cost ratio, and guidelines on how to deploy the VSL signs, ramp meters, and detectors at the deployment site(s). This research has the potential to assist traffic engineers in the planning of VSL and VSLRM control, thus enhancing the procedure for allocating limited resources for mobility and safety improvements on highways plagued by recurrent congestion.
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Tesis (Ingeniero(a) en Automatización).--Universidad de La Salle. Facultad de Ingeniería. Programa de Ingeniería en Automatización, 2014
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Actuador con mecanismo de rigidez variable y par umbral, del tipo de los utilizados en articulaciones de revolución de brazos robóticos y que pueden modificar su rigidez. El actuador incorpora un motor (1) que se encarga de controlar la posición de equilibrio del eslabón de salida (13). El mecanismo contiene un resorte (18) y una palanca (12). La rigidez del mecanismo puede ser modificada variando la posición de esta palanca (12) mediante un motor (14). Dicha rigidez determina el valor del giro entre la posición de la polea (2) solidaria al eje de salida del motor (1) y la posición del eslabón (13). Dos tensores (5) y (6) permiten modificar la precarga de dos cables (3) y (4) respectivamente, de forma que el mecanismo no entra en funcionamiento hasta que no se ha sobrepasado un cierto valor de par sobre la articulación.
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This research is based on a numerical model for forecasting the three-dimensional behavior of (sea) water motion due to the effect of a variable wind velocity. The results obtained are then analyzed and compared with observation. This model is based on the equations that overcome the current and distribution of temperature by applying the method of finite difference with assuming Δx, Δy as constant and Δz, variable. The model is based on the momentum equation, continuity equation and thermodynamic energy equation and tension at the surface and middle layers and bottom stress. The horizontal and vertical eddy viscosity and thermal diffusivity coefficients we used in accordance with that of the Bennet on Outario Lake (1977). Considering the Caspian Sea dimension in numerical model the Coriolis parameter used with β effects and the approximation Boussines have been used. For the program controlling some simple experiment with boundary condition similar to that of the Caspian Sea have been done. For modeling the Caspian Sea the grid of the field was done as follows: At horizontal surface grid size is 10×10km extension and at vertical in 10 layers with varying thickness from surface to bed respectively as: 5, 10, 20, 3, 50, 100, 150, 200, 25, 500 and higher. The data of wind as velocity، direction and temperature of water related to 15th September 1995 at 6،12 and 18 o’clock were obtained from synoptic station at the Caspian Sea shore and the research marine of Haji Alief. The information concerning shore wind was measured and by the method of SPM (shore protection manual) was transferred to far shore winds through interpolation and by use of inverse square distance of position distribution of the wind velocity at the Caspian surface field was obtained. The model has been evaluated according to the reports and observations. Through studying the position of the current in different layers، the velocity in the cross section in the northern، southern and the middle layers، will be discussed. The results reveal the presence of the circulation cells in the three above mentioned areas. The circulation with depth is reduced too. The results obtained through the numerical solution of the temperature equation have been compared with the observation. The temperature change in different layers in cross section illustrates the relative accordance of the model mentioned.