Avaliação de impacto do Proagro Mais: um estudo de caso

Esta pesquisa avalia o impacto do \"Programa de Garantia da Atividade Agropecuária\" para agricultores familiares, conhecido como Proagro Mais. A relevância do trabalho fundamenta-se no considerável tamanho do Programa dentro do contexto das políticas de gestão de risco agrícola no Brasil. Além disso, é a primeira pesquisa desse tipo na literatura científica do país. A amostra é formada por produtores de milho do Estado do Paraná, tendo como linha base o ano de 2003, uma vez que é o ano anterior ao lançamento do Proagro Mais, e o ano de 2005 como ano de impacto. A base de dados utilizada neste estudo foi fornecida pelo Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU), cujas variáveis relevantes incluem características da cultura e dos agricultores familiares, como área financiada, atividades agrícolas complementares, educação e rendimento esperado. Adicionalmente, a partir de outras fontes públicas, foram adicionadas variáveis meteorológicas e regionais para controlar a localização da fazenda. O objetivo da pesquisa é avaliar o impacto do Proagro Mais sobre o montante de crédito por hectare concedido aos beneficiários do Programa. As metodologias usadas incluem o Propensity Score Matching (PSM), a Diferença das Diferenças (DID) e dois estimadores condicionais do DID com PSM usando dados em painel e repeated cross-section. As estimativas econométricas mostram que o Efeito Médio do Tratamento nos Tratados (EMTT) teve sinal negativo na maioria dos modelos revelando que, após o período de perda de rendimento, o grupo de controle teve um valor médio mais elevado de crédito por hectare do que os beneficiários do Proagro Mais. Os resultados sugerem a existência de mecanismos que poderiam complementar ou substituir o Proagro Mais como instrumento de gestão de risco agrícola, mas também podem sugerir que o Programa avaliado não cubra todos os riscos do setor.

The Clinical Utility of the Adult Attachment Projective Picture System: A Clinician's Perspective

The Adult Attachment Projective Picture System (AAP) is the first performance- based measure of adult attachment to be developed. The purpose of the measure is to provide a clinical understanding of an adult client's attachment status and associated coping mechanisms. The AAP is a relatively new measure that has yet to be examined from a utility perspective. In the current study, seven psychologists completed a structured survey in order to identify their perspectives of the AAP and its utility as a clinical instrument. A phenomenological qualitative analysis of the data was conducted to derive themes about the AAP and its clinical utility. Analyses aimed to answer the following: What clinical considerations do clinician's focus on when deciding to use this measure? What are common factors among clinician's who do use the measure as well as those who do not? What aspects of the measure are user-friendly and what aspects are difficult? General themes that emerged include (a) the clinical information provided by the AAP is viewed by those who use it as unique and beneficial; (b) time commitment and cost for the clinician are common considerations when clinician's are deciding whether or not to use the AAP or when pursuing training; (c) the AAP provides an increased understanding of one's relational capacities and defenses; and (d) the coding system and transcription process are difficult aspects of the AAP and influence how and/or when it is used. In addition to these themes, multiple respondents discussed potential changes for the AAP that would increase their future use of the instrument. Finally, the implications of these results are discussed.

The Utility of Therapeutic Assessment Style Fables During the Termination Stage of Psychotherapy

Stories, fables, and myths have been used for a long time in human history. They serve as a way for cultures and people to communicate, preserve important cultural values, and create meaning. The use of narratives has been recognized as a helpful technique in the field of psychology and can be found in many orientations and intervention techniques (Dwivedi, 2006; Roberts, 2000). Narrative therapy, bibliotherapy, trauma narratives, and Therapeutic Assessment (TA) are some of the areas in which the benefits of using written stories are incorporated into work with clients. In this paper, the clinical utility of using Therapeutic Assessment style fables in the termination phase of psychotherapy is explored. The termination phase is a challenging time for both therapists and clients. The use of rituals in the process of termination has been found to have a positive impact on the experience (Gutheil, 1993). This paper presents several case studies and examines the subsequent impact and clinical benefits of using termination fables in psychotherapy.

The Utility of the CVLT-C as an Embedded Validity Indicator After Pediatric Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

Results of neuropsychological examinations depend on valid data. Whereas clinicians previously believed that clinical skill was sufficient to identify non-credible performance by examinees on standard tests, research demonstrates otherwise. Consequently, studies on measures to detect suspect effort in adults have received tremendous attention in the previous twenty years, and incorporation of validity indicators into neuropsychological examinations is now seen as integral. Few studies exist that validate methods appropriate for the measurement of effort in pediatric populations. Of extant studies, most evaluate standalone measures originally developed for use with adults. The present study examined the utility of indices from the California Verbal Learning Test – Children's Version (CVLT-C) as embedded validity indicators in a pediatric sample. Participants were 225 outpatients aged 8 to 16 years old referred for clinical assessment after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Non-credible performance (n = 39) was defined as failure of the Medical Symptom Validity Test (MSVT). Logistic regression demonstrated that only the Recognition Discriminability index was predictive of MSVT failure (OR = 2.88, p < .001). A cutoff of z ≤ -1.0 was associated with sensitivity of 51% and specificity of 91%. In the current study, CVLT-C Recognition Discriminability was useful in the identification of non-credible performance in a sample of relatively high-functioning pediatric outpatients with mTBI. Thus, this index can be added to the short list of embedded validity indicators appropriate for pediatric neuropsychological assessment.

Testing co-volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances

There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The paper tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices.

Portfolio efficiency tests with conditioning information using empirical likelihood estimation

We evaluate the use of Generalized Empirical Likelihood (GEL) estimators in portfolios efficiency tests for asset pricing models in the presence of conditional information. Estimators from GEL family presents some optimal statistical properties, such as robustness to misspecification and better properties in finite samples. Unlike GMM, the bias for GEL estimators do not increase as more moment conditions are included, which is expected in conditional efficiency analysis. We found some evidences that estimators from GEL class really performs differently in small samples, where efficiency tests using GEL generate lower estimates compared to tests using the standard approach with GMM. With Monte Carlo experiments we see that GEL has better performance when distortions are present in data, especially under heavy tails and Gaussian shocks.

Estratégias de comercialização e investimento, com ênfase em energias renováveis, suportadas por modelos de otimização especializados para avaliação estocástica de risco x retorno.

A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações.

Conditional Order-m Efficiency of Wastewater Treatment Plants: The Role of Environmental Factors

The growing economic and environmental importance of managing water resources at a global level also entails greater efforts and interest in improving the functioning and efficiency of the increasingly more numerous wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). In this context, this study analyzes the efficiency of a uniform sample of plants of this type located in the region of Valencia (Spain). The type of efficiency measure used for this (conditional order-m efficiency) allows continuous and discrete contextual variables to be directly involved in the analysis and enables the assessment of their statistical significance and effect (positive or negative). The main findings of the study showed that the quality of the influent water and also the size and age of the plants had a significant influence on their efficiency levels. In particular, as regards the effect of such variables, the findings pointed to the existence of an inverse relationship between the quality of the influent water and the efficiency of the WWTPs. Also, a lower annual volume of treated water and more modern installations showed a positive influence. Additionally, the average efficiency levels observed turned out to be higher than those reported in previous studies.

Clinical utility of ocular residual astigmatism and topographic disparity vector indexes in subclinical and clinical keratoconus

Purpose. We aimed to characterize the distribution of the vector parameters ocular residual astigmatism (ORA) and topography disparity (TD) in a sample of clinical and subclinical keratoconus eyes, and to evaluate their diagnostic value to discriminate between these conditions and healthy corneas. Methods. This study comprised a total of 43 keratoconic eyes (27 patients, 17–73 years) (keratoconus group), 11 subclinical keratoconus eyes (eight patients, 11–54 years) (subclinical keratoconus group) and 101 healthy eyes (101 patients, 15–64 years) (control group). In all cases, a complete corneal analysis was performed using a Scheimpflug photography-based topography system. Anterior corneal topographic data was imported from it to the iASSORT software (ASSORT Pty. Ltd), which allowed the calculation of ORA and TD. Results. Mean magnitude of the ORA was 3.23 ± 2.38, 1.16 ± 0.50 and 0.79 ± 0.43 D in the keratoconus, subclinical keratoconus and control groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Mean magnitude of the TD was 9.04 ± 8.08, 2.69 ± 2.42 and 0.89 ± 0.50 D in the keratoconus, subclinical keratoconus and control groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Good diagnostic performance of ORA (cutoff point: 1.21 D, sensitivity 83.7 %, specificity 87.1 %) and TD (cutoff point: 1.64 D, sensitivity 93.3 %, specificity 92.1 %) was found for the detection of keratoconus. The diagnostic ability of these parameters for the detection of subclinical keratoconus was more limited (ORA: cutoff 1.17 D, sensitivity 60.0 %, specificity 84.2 %; TD: cutoff 1.29 D, sensitivity 80.0 %, specificity 80.2 %). Conclusion. The vector parameters ORA and TD are able to discriminate with good levels of precision between keratoconus and healthy corneas. For the detection of subclinical keratoconus, only TD seems to be valid.

Semantic change and intersubjectification: The origin of reprise evidential conditional in Old Catalan

The reprise evidential conditional (REC) is nowadays not very usual in Catalan: it is restricted to journalistic language and to some very formal genres (such as academic or legal language), it is not present in spontaneous discourse. On the one hand, it has been described among the rather new modality values of the conditional. On the other, the normative tradition tended to reject it for being a gallicism, or to describe it as an unsuitable neologism. Thanks to the extraction from text corpora, we surprisingly find this REC in Catalan from the beginning of the fourteenth century to the contemporary age, with semantic and pragmatic nuances and different evidence of grammaticalization. Due to the current interest in evidentiality, the REC has been widely studied in French, Italian and Portuguese, focusing mainly on its contemporary uses and not so intensively on the diachronic process that could explain the origin of this value. In line with this research, that we initiated studying the epistemic and evidential future in Catalan, our aim is to describe: a) the pragmatic context that could have been the initial point of the REC in the thirteenth century, before we find indisputable attestations of this use; b) the path of semantic change followed by the conditional from a ‘future in the past’ tense to the acquisition of epistemic and evidential values; and c) the role played by invited inferences, subjectification and intersubjectification in this change.