Isotone Recursive Methods for Overlapping Generation Models with Stochastic Nonclassical Production

Based on an order-theoretic approach, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence, characterization, and computation of Markovian equilibrium decision processes and stationary Markov equilibrium on minimal state spaces for a large class of stochastic overlapping generations models. In contrast to all previous work, we consider reduced-form stochastic production technologies that allow for a broad set of equilibrium distortions such as public policy distortions, social security, monetary equilibrium, and production nonconvexities. Our order-based methods are constructive, and we provide monotone iterative algorithms for computing extremal stationary Markov equilibrium decision processes and equilibrium invariant distributions, while avoiding many of the problems associated with the existence of indeterminacies that have been well-documented in previous work. We provide important results for existence of Markov equilibria for the case where capital income is not increasing in the aggregate stock. Finally, we conclude with examples common in macroeconomics such as models with fiat money and social security. We also show how some of our results extend to settings with unbounded state spaces.

Fast Algorithms Using Minimal Data Structures for Common Topological Relationships in Large, Irregularly-spaced Topographic Data Sets

Digital terrain models (DTM) typically contain large numbers of postings, from hundreds of thousands to billions. Many algorithms that run on DTMs require topological knowledge of the postings, such as finding nearest neighbors, finding the posting closest to a chosen location, etc. If the postings are arranged irregu- larly, topological information is costly to compute and to store. This paper offers a practical approach to organizing and searching irregularly-space data sets by presenting a collection of efficient algorithms (O(N),O(lgN)) that compute important topological relationships with only a simple supporting data structure. These relationships include finding the postings within a window, locating the posting nearest a point of interest, finding the neighborhood of postings nearest a point of interest, and ordering the neighborhood counter-clockwise. These algorithms depend only on two sorted arrays of two-element tuples, holding a planimetric coordinate and an integer identification number indicating which posting the coordinate belongs to. There is one array for each planimetric coordinate (eastings and northings). These two arrays cost minimal overhead to create and store but permit the data to remain arranged irregularly.

Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy affects real economic activity through its affect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy, the classical dichotomy, or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand new Keynesian or new classical theories. Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy affects the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through its affect on total factor productivity, an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply-side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of countercyclical monetary policy as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy in the Great Moderation as well as the more recent rise in productivity growth.

A Confirmatory Factor Analytic Study Examining the Dimensionality of Educational Achievement Tests

It is important to check the fundamental assumption of most popular Item Response Theory models, unidimensionality. However, it is hard for educational and psychological tests to be strictly unidimensional. The tests studied in this paper are from a standardized high-stake testing program. They feature potential multidimensionality by presenting various item types and item sets. Confirmatory factor analyses with one-factor and bifactor models, and based on both linear structural equation modeling approach and nonlinear IRT approach were conducted. The competing models were compared and the implications of the bifactor model for checking essential unidimensionality were discussed.

Tumor heterogeneity dictates sensitivity to gefitinib (Iressa(TM)/ZD1839) in solid tumor models

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and its ligands are overexpressed in many human tumors, including bladder and pancreas, correlating with a more aggressive tumor phenotype and poor patient prognosis. We initiated the present study to characterize the heterogeneity of gefitinib responsiveness in a panel of human bladder and pancreatic cancer cell lines in order to identify the biological characteristics of EGFR-dependent proliferation that could be used to prospectively identify drug-sensitive tumors. A second objective was to elucidate how to best exploit these results by utilizing gefitinib in combination therapy. To these ends, we examined the effects of the EGFR antagonist gefitinib on proliferation and apoptosis in a panel of 18 human bladder cancer cell lines and 9 human pancreatic cancer cell lines. Our data confirmed the existence of marked heterogeneity in Iressa responsiveness with less than half of the cell lines displaying significant growth inhibition by clinically relevant concentrations of the drug. Gefitinib responsiveness was found to be p27 kip1 dependent as DNA synthesis was restored following exposure to p27siRNA. Unfortunately, Iressa responsiveness was not closely linked to surface EGFR or TGF-α expression in the bladder cancer cells, however, cellular TGF-α expression correlated directly with Iressa sensitivity in the pancreatic cancer cell lines. These findings provide the potential for prospectively identifying patients with drug-sensitive tumors. ^ Further studies aimed at exploiting gefitinib-mediated cell cycle effects led us to investigate if gefitinib-mediated TRAIL sensitization correlated with increased p27kip1 accumulation. We observed that increased TRAIL sensitivity following gefitinib exposure was not dependent on p27 kip1 expression. Additional studies initiated to examine the role(s) of Akt and Erk signaling demonstrated that exposure to PI3K or MEK inhibitors significantly enhanced TRAIL-induced apoptosis at concentrations that block target phosphorylation. Furthermore, combinations of TRAIL and the PI3K or MEK inhibitors increased procaspase-8 processing above levels observed with TRAIL alone, indicating that the effects were exerted at the level of caspase-8 activation, considered the earliest step in the TRAIL pathway. ^

The transcription factor nuclear factor kappa B (NFkappaB) maintains TRAIL resistance in human pancreatic cancer cells

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL/Apo2L) is a member of the TNF family of cytokines that induces apoptosis in a variety of tumor cells while sparing normal cells. However, many human cancer cell lines display resistance to TRAIL-induced apoptosis and the mechanisms contributing to resistance remain controversial. Previous studies have demonstrated that the dimeric transcription factor Nuclear Factor kappa B (NFκB) is constitutively active in a majority of human pancreatic cancer cell lines and primary tumors, and although its role in tumor progression remains unclear it has been suggested that NFκB contributes to TRAIL resistance. Based on this, I examined the effects of NFκB inhibitors on TRAIL sensitivity in a panel of nine pancreatic cancer cell lines. I show here that inhibitors of NFκB, including two inhibitors of the proteasome (bortezomib (Velcade™, PS-341) and NPI-0052), a small molecule inhibitor of IKK (PS1145), and a novel synthetic diterpene NIK inhibitor (NPI-1342) reverse TRAIL resistance in pancreatic cancer cell lines. Further analysis revealed that the expression of the anti-apoptosic proteins BclXL and XIAP was significantly decreased following exposure to these inhibitors alone and in combination with TRAIL. Additionally, treatment with NPI0052 and TRAIL significantly reduced tumor burden relative to the control tumors in an L3.6pl orthotopic pancreatic xenograft model. This was associated with a significant decrease in proliferation and an increase in caspase 3 and 8 cleavage. Combination therapy employing PS1145 or NPI-1342 in combination with TRAIL also resulted in a significant reduction in tumor burden compared to either agent alone in a Panc1 orthotopic xenograft model. My studies show that combination therapy with inhibitors of NFκB alone and TRAIL is effective in pre-clinical models of pancreatic cancer and suggests that the approach should be evaluated in patients. ^

Mechanism of IFN-induced apoptosis and sensitization by the proteasome inhibitor bortezomib in bladder cancer cells

Bladder cancer is the fifth most common cancer with more than 50,000 cases diagnosed each year. Interferon-α (IFNα) is mostly used in combination with BCG for the treatment of transitional cell carcinoma (TCC). To examine the effects of IFNα on bladder cancer cells, I analyzed a panel of 20 bladder cancer cell lines in terms of their sensitivity to IFNα-induced apoptosis and the underlying mechanisms. I identified three categories: cells that die after 48hr, after 72h, and cells resistant even after 72hr of IFNα treatment. Examination of the IFN-signal transduction pathway revealed that the defect was not due to abrogation of IFN signaling. Further analysis demonstrated dependency of IFN-induced apoptosis on caspase-8, implicating the role of death receptors in IFN-induced cell death. Of the six most-IFN-sensitive cell lines, the majority upregulated Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) at the mRNA and protein level and IFN-induced cell death was mediated through TRAIL, while a minority of the most IFN-sensitive cells undergo apoptosis through a TNFα-dependent mechanism. IFNα resistance was due to either absence of TRAIL upregulation at the mRNA or protein level, resistance to exogenous rhTRAIL itself or lack of sensitization to IFN-induced cell death. Downregulation of XIAP, or XIAP inactivation through its regulator NFκB has been reported to sensitize tumor cells to death receptor-induced cell death. Baseline and IFN-inducible XIAP levels were examined in the most and least IFN-sensitive cells, knocking down XIAP and the p65 subunit of NFκB enhanced IFN-induced cell death, implicating XIAP downregulation as a mechanism through which bladder cancer cells are sensitized to IFN-induced apoptosis. To determine whether or not the proteasome inhibitor Bortezomib (BZ) sensitizes bladder cancer cells to IFN-induced cell death, the combined effects of IFN+BZ and the underlying molecular mechanisms were examined both in vitro and in vivo using two bladder xenograft models. In both models, tumor growth inhibition was the result of either increased cell death of tumor cells exerted by the two agents and/or inhibition of angiogenesis. In vitro, MAP downregulation in response to the combined treatment of IFN+BZ accounts for one of the mechanisms mediating IFN+BZ cell death in bladder cancer cells. ^

Breast cancer risk and heterocyclic amines and effect modification by NAT gene polymorphisms

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women in the United States and is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths (1). Recently, dietary heterocyclic amines (HCAs) have been proposed to be a risk factor for breast cancer (2). This study uses the data collected for a case-control study conducted at the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center to assess the association between breast cancer risk and HCAs {2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazole [4,5-b] pyridine (PhIP), 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo [4,5-f] quinoxaline (MeIQx), 2-amino-3,4,8-trimethylimidazo [4,5-f] quinoxaline (DiMeIQx) and mutagenicity of HCAs} and to examine if this association is modified by genetic polymorphisms of N-acetyl transferases (NAT1/NAT2). The NAT1/2 genotype was determined using Taqman technology. HCAs were estimated by using a meat preparation questionnaire on meat type, cooking method, and doneness, combined with a quantitative HCA database. Three hundred and fifty patients with breast cancer attending the Diagnostic Radiology Clinic at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center and fulfilling the eligibility criteria were compared to three hundred and fifty patients attending the same clinic for benign breast lesions to answer these questions. Logistic regression models were used to control for known risk factors and showed no statistically significant association between breast cancer versus benign breast cancer lesions and dietary intake of heterocyclic amines. There was no clear difference in their effect after subgroup analyses in different acetylator strata of NAT1/2 and no statistical interactions were found between NAT1/2 genotypes and HCAs, suggesting no effect modification by NAT1/2 acetylator status. These results suggest the need for further research to analyze if these null associations were because of the benign breast lesions sharing the risk factors with breast cancer or any other factors which haven't been explored yet.^

The application of latent variable models to the assessment of determinants of HIV risk behavior

Studies on the relationship between psychosocial determinants and HIV risk behaviors have produced little evidence to support hypotheses based on theoretical relationships. One limitation inherent in many articles in the literature is the method of measurement of the determinants and the analytic approach selected. ^ To reduce the misclassification associated with unit scaling of measures specific to internalized homonegativity, I evaluated the psychometric properties of the Reactions to Homosexuality scale in a confirmatory factor analytic framework. In addition, I assessed the measurement invariance of the scale across racial/ethnic classifications in a sample of men who have sex with men. The resulting measure contained eight items loading on three first-order factors. Invariance assessment identified metric and partial strong invariance between racial/ethnic groups in the sample. ^ Application of the updated measure to a structural model allowed for the exploration of direct and indirect effects of internalized homonegativity on unprotected anal intercourse. Pathways identified in the model show that drug and alcohol use at last sexual encounter, the number of sexual partners in the previous three months and sexual compulsivity all contribute directly to risk behavior. Internalized homonegativity reduced the likelihood of exposure to drugs, alcohol or higher numbers of partners. For men who developed compulsive sexual behavior as a coping strategy for internalized homonegativity, there was an increase in the prevalence odds of risk behavior. ^ In the final stage of the analysis, I conducted a latent profile analysis of the items in the updated Reactions to Homosexuality scale. This analysis identified five distinct profiles, which suggested that the construct was not homogeneous in samples of men who have sex with men. Lack of prior consideration of these distinct manifestations of internalized homonegativity may have contributed to the analytic difficulty in identifying a relationship between the trait and high-risk sexual practices. ^

The critical role and regulation of transcription factor FoxM1 in gastric cancer development and progression

The mammalian Forkhead Box (Fox) transcription factor (FoxM1) is implicated in tumorgenesis. However, the role and regulation of FoxM1 in gastric cancer remain unknown.^ I examined FoxM1 expression in 86 cases of primary gastric cancer and 57 normal gastric tissue specimens. I found weak expression of FoxM1 protein in normal gastric mucosa, whereas I observed strong staining for FoxM1 in tumor-cell nuclei in various gastric tumors and lymph node metastases. The aberrant FoxM1 expression is associated with VEGF expression and increased angiogenesis in human gastric cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model revealed that FoxM1 expression was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. Furthermore, overexpression of FoxM1 by gene transfer significantly promoted the growth and metastasis of gastric cancer cells in orthotopic mouse models, whereas knockdown of FoxM1 expression by small interfering RNA did the opposite. Next, I observed that alteration of tumor growth and metastasis by elevated FoxM1 expression was directly correlated with alteration of VEGF expression and angiogenesis. In addition, promotion of gastric tumorigenesis by FoxM1 directly and significantly correlated with transactivation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression and elevation of angiogenesis. ^ To further investigate the underlying mechanisms that result in FoxM1 overexpression in gastric cancer, I investigated FoxM1 and Krüppel-like factor 4 (KLF4) expressions in primary gastric cancer and normal gastric tissue specimens. Concomitance of increased expression of FoxM1 protein and decreased expression of KLF4 protein was evident in human gastric cancer. Enforced KLF4 expression suppressed FoxM1 protein expression. Moreover, a region within the proximal FoxM1 promoter was identified to have KLF4-binding sites. Finally, I found an increased FoxM1 expression in gastric mucosa of villin-Cre -directed tissue specific Klf4-null mice.^ In summary, I offered both clinical and mechanistic evidence that dysregulated expression of FoxM1 play an important role in gastric cancer development and progression, while KLF4 mediates negative regulation of FoxM1 expression and its loss significantly contributes to FoxM1 dysregulation. ^

An examination of the cross-cultural reliability and construct validity of a measure of loneliness

Loneliness is a pervasive, rather common experience in American culture, particularly notable among adolescents. However, the phenomenon is not well documented in the cross-cultural psychiatric literature. For psychiatric epidemiology to encompass a wide array of psychopathologic phenomena, it is important to develop useful measures to characterize and classify both non-clinical and clinical dysfunction in diverse subgroups and cultures.^ The goal of this research was to examine the cross-cultural reliability and construct validity of a scale designed to measure loneliness. The Roberts Loneliness Scale (RLS-8) was administered to 4,060 adolescents ages 10-19 years enrolled in high schools along either side of the Texas-Tamaulipas border region between the U.S. and Mexico. Data collected in 1988 from a study focusing on substance use and psychological distress among adolescents in these regions were used to examine the operating characteristics of the RLS-8. A sample stratified by nationality and language, age, gender, and grade was used for analysis.^ Results indicated that in general the RLS-8 has moderate reliability in the U.S. sample, but not in the Mexican sample. Validity analyses demonstrated that there was evidence for convergent validity of the RLS-8 in the U.S. sample, but none in the Mexican sample. Discriminant validity of the measures in neither sample could be established. Based on the factor structure of the RLS-8, two subscales were created and analyzed for construct validity. Evidence for convergent validity was established for both subscales in both national samples. However, the discriminant validity of the measure remains unsubstantiated in both national samples. Also, the dimensionality of the scale is unresolved.^ One primary goal for future cross-cultural research would be to develop and test better defined culture-specific models of loneliness within the two cultures. From such scientific endeavor, measures of loneliness can be developed or reconstructed to classify the phenomenon in the same manner across cultures. Since estimates of prevalence and incidence are contingent upon reliable and valid screening or diagnostic measures, this objective would serve as an important foundation for future psychiatric epidemiologic inquiry into loneliness. ^

A multiplicative model for standardizing vital rates without using external standards

Standardization is a common method for adjusting confounding factors when comparing two or more exposure category to assess excess risk. Arbitrary choice of standard population in standardization introduces selection bias due to healthy worker effect. Small sample in specific groups also poses problems in estimating relative risk and the statistical significance is problematic. As an alternative, statistical models were proposed to overcome such limitations and find adjusted rates. In this dissertation, a multiplicative model is considered to address the issues related to standardized index namely: Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and Comparative Mortality Factor (CMF). The model provides an alternative to conventional standardized technique. Maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model are used to construct an index similar to the SMR for estimating relative risk of exposure groups under comparison. Parametric Bootstrap resampling method is used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model, behavior of estimated parameters and variability in relative risk on generated sample. The model provides an alternative to both direct and indirect standardization method. ^

Ethnicity as a risk factor for diabetes incidence in a population of diagnosed hypertensives

Significant racial/ethnic differences exist in prevalence of hypertension (HTN) and non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Hypertension is more common in diabetics than in non-diabetics, and an etiologic link between the two conditions has been proposed. Since there are few longitudinal studies of persons with both HTN and NIDDM, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine if ethnicity (Black, Hispanic (Mexican-American), and non-Hispanic White) was related to NIDDM incidence in a low-SES, multi-ethnic clinic population of diagnosed hypertensives. Two thousand nine hundred forty-one hypertensives free of NIDDM at baseline were followed for up to 10 years. Mean baseline age was 56 $\pm$ 12 years, M:F percent was 33:67, and Black:Hispanic:White percent was 63:17:20. There were 236 incident cases of NIDDM. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, the risk of developing NIDDM over 10 years was not related to ethnicity after controlling for significant covariates, including age, baseline blood glucose and body mass index (adjusted RR for Blacks compared to Whites =.82, 95 percent CI =.57-1.18; adjusted RR for Hispanics compared to Whites =.84, 95 percent CI =.51-1.38). This result contrasts with the increased risk of NIDDM among Blacks and Hispanics compared to Whites found in the general population. The study suggests that a diagnosis of hypertension equalizes the risk of developing NIDDM among the three ethnic groups. ^

Effect of smoking on the association between periodontitis and incidence of coronary heart disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Multiple studies have shown an association between periodontitis and coronary heart disease due to the chronic inflammatory nature of periodontitis. Also, studies have indicated similar risk factors and patho-physiologic mechanisms for periodontitis and CHD. Among these factors, smoking has been the most discussed common risk factor and some studies suggested the periodontitis - CHD association to be largely a result of confounding due to smoking or inadequate adjustment for it. We conducted a secondary data analysis of the Dental ARIC Study, an ancillary study to the ARIC Study, to evaluate the effect of smoking on the periodontitis - CHD association using three periodontitis classifications namely, BGI, AAP-CDC, and Dental-ARIC classification (Beck et al 2001). We also compared these results with edentulous ARIC participants. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we found that the individuals with the most severe form of periodontitis in each of the three classifications (BGI: HR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.15 – 2.13; AAP-CDC: HR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.13 – 1.79; and Dental-ARIC: HR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.22 – 1.83) were at a significantly higher risk of incident CHD in the unadjusted models; whereas only BGI-P3 showed statistically significant increased risk in the smoking adjusted models (HR = 1.43, 95%CI: 1.04 – 1.96). However none of the categories in any of the classifications showed significant association when a list of traditional CHD risk factors was introduced into the models. On the other hand, edentulous participants showed significant results when compared to the dentate ARIC participants in the crude (HR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.34 – 1.82); smoking adjusted (HR = 1.39, 95%CI: 1.18 – 1.64) age, race and sex adjusted (HR = 1.52, 95%CI: 1.30 – 1.77); and ARIC traditional risk factors (except smoking) adjusted (HR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.02 – 1.57) models. Also, the risk remained significantly higher even when smoking was introduced in the age, sex and race adjusted model (HR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.17 – 1.63). Smoking did not reduce the hazard ratio by more than 8% when it was included in any of the Cox models. ^ This is the first study to include the three most recent case definitions of periodontitis simultaneously while looking at its association with incident coronary heart disease. We found smoking to be partially confounding the periodontitis and coronary heart disease association and edentulism to be significantly associated with incident CHD even after adjusting for smoking and the ARIC traditional risk factors. The difference in the three periodontitis classifications was not found to be statistical significant when they were tested for equality of the area under their ROC curves but this should not be confused with their clinical significance.^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^