Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Quantum solitons in the XXZ model with staggered external magnetic field

The 1-D 1/2-spin XXZ model with staggered external magnetic field, when restricting to low field, can be mapped into the quantum sine-Gordon model through bosonization: this assures the presence of soliton, antisoliton and breather excitations in it. In particular, the action of the staggered field opens a gap so that these physical objects are stable against energetic fluctuations. In the present work, this model is studied both analytically and numerically. On the one hand, analytical calculations are made to solve exactly the model through Bethe ansatz: the solution for the XX + h staggered model is found first by means of Jordan-Wigner transformation and then through Bethe ansatz; after this stage, efforts are made to extend the latter approach to the XXZ + h staggered model (without finding its exact solution). On the other hand, the energies of the elementary soliton excitations are pinpointed through static DMRG (Density Matrix Renormalization Group) for different values of the parameters in the hamiltonian. Breathers are found to be in the antiferromagnetic region only, while solitons and antisolitons are present both in the ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic region. Their single-site z-magnetization expectation values are also computed to see how they appear in real space, and time-dependent DMRG is employed to realize quenches on the hamiltonian parameters to monitor their time-evolution. The results obtained reveal the quantum nature of these objects and provide some information about their features. Further studies and a better understanding of their properties could bring to the realization of a two-level state through a soliton-antisoliton pair, in order to implement a qubit.

Biomechanical model of tumor growth: application to the European ContraCancrum project

This abstract presents the biomechanical model that is used in the European ContraCancrum project, aiming at simulating tumor evolution in the brain and lung. The construction of the finite element model as well as a simulation of tumor growth are shown. The construction of the mesh is fully automatic and is therefore compatible with a clinical application. This biomechanical model will be later combined to a cellular level simulator also developed in the project.

Expression, localization, and functional model of cholesterol transporters in lactating and nonlactating mammary tissues of murine, bovine, and human origin

Members of the ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters play a pivotal role in cellular lipid efflux. To identify candidate cholesterol transporters implicated in lipid homeostasis and mammary gland (MG) physiology, we compared expression and localization of ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 and their regulatory genes in mammary tissues of different species during the pregnancy-lactation cycle. Murine and bovine mammary glands (MGs) were investigated during different functional stages. The abundance of mRNAs was determined by quantitative RT-PCR. Furthermore, transporter proteins were localized in murine, bovine, and human MGs by immunohistochemistry. In the murine MG, ABCA1 mRNA abundance was elevated during nonlactating compared with lactating stages, whereas ABCA7 and ABCA1 mRNA profiles were not altered. In the bovine MG, ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 mRNAs abundances were increased during nonlactating stages compared with lactation. Furthermore, associations between mRNA levels of transporters and their regulatory genes LXRalpha, PPARgamma, and SREBPs were found. ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 proteins were localized in glandular MG epithelial cells (MEC) during lactation, whereas during nonlactating stages, depending on species, the proteins showed distinct localization patterns in MEC and adipocytes. Our results demonstrate that ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 are differentially expressed between lactation and nonlactating stages and in association with regulatory genes. Combined expression and localization data suggest that the selected cholesterol transporters are universal MG transporters involved in transport and storage of cholesterol and in lipid homeostasis of MEC. Because of the species-specific expression patterns of transporters in mammary tissue, mechanisms of cholesterol homeostasis seem to be differentially regulated between species.

An intraoperatively moulded PMMA prostheses like spacer for two-stage revision of infected total knee arthroplasty

We report a series of 16 consecutive total knee arthroplasty (TKA) revision procedures for deep infection, treated with a newly developed intraoperatively moulded PMMA cement-prostheses-like spacer (CPLS). The standard treatment consisted of a two-stage protocol with initial explantation of the infected components combined with radical debridement, followed by implantation of a temporary cement spacer and final reimplantation of a new TKA. A sterilizeable Teflon tapered aluminium mould was developed for production of a custom made CPLS during the intervention. Stable implantation of the CPLS was achieved with a second cementation, allowing for correct alignment and ligament balancing. The spacer remained 3.5 months on average until reimplantation of a TKA occurred. At time of reimplantation, patients had an average KSS score of 84.44 points with an average flexion capacity of 102°. There was no recurrent infection during the study period of minimum 2 years. With this new technique, a low friction articulation with good stability, high comfort and a better range of motion compared to handcrafted spacers was achieved. The use of this spacer is a time sparing, cheap and convenient option in 2-stage TKA revision.

An in vitro triple cell co-culture model with primary cells mimicking the human alveolar epithelial barrier

A triple cell co-culture model was recently established by the authors, consisting of either A549 or 16HBE14o- epithelial cells, human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells, which offers the possibility to study the interaction of xenobiotics with those cells. The 16HBE14o- containing co-culture model mimics the airway epithelial barrier, whereas the A549 co-cultures mimic the alveolar type II-like epithelial barrier. The goal of the present work was to establish a new triple cell co-culture model composed of primary alveolar type I-like cells isolated from human lung biopsies (hAEpC) representing a more realistic alveolar epithelial barrier wall, since type I epithelial cells cover >93% of the alveolar surface. Monocultures of A549 and 16HBE14o- were morphologically and functionally compared with the hAEpC using laser scanning microscopy, as well as transmission electron microscopy, and by determining the epithelial integrity. The triple cell co-cultures were characterized using the same methods. It could be shown that the epithelial integrity of hAEpC (mean ± SD, 1180 ± 188 Ω cm(2)) was higher than in A549 (172 ± 59 Ω cm(2)) but similar to 16HBE14o- cells (1469 ± 156 Ω cm(2)). The triple cell co-culture model with hAEpC (1113 ± 30 Ω cm(2)) showed the highest integrity compared to the ones with A549 (93 ± 14 Ω cm(2)) and 16HBE14o- (558 ± 267 Ω cm(2)). The tight junction protein zonula occludens-1 in hAEpC and 16HBE14o- were more regularly expressed but not in A549. The epithelial alveolar model with hAEpC combined with two immune cells (i.e. macrophages and dendritic cells) will offer a novel and more realistic cell co-culture system to study possible cell interactions of inhaled xenobiotics and their toxic potential on the human alveolar type I epithelial wall.

Combined use of pulsed arterial spin-labeling and susceptibility-weighted imaging in stroke at 3T

Background and Purpose: In acute stroke it is no longer sufficient to detect simply ischemia, but also to try to evaluate reperfusion/recanalization status and predict eventual hemorrhagic transformation. Arterial spin labeling (ASL) perfusion may have advantages over contrast-enhanced perfusion-weighted imaging (cePWI), and susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI) has an intrinsic sensitivity to paramagnetic effects in addition to its ability to detect small areas of bleeding and hemorrhage. We want to determine here if their combined use in acute stroke and stroke follow-up at 3T could bring new insight into the diagnosis and prognosis of stroke leading to eventual improved patient management. Methods: We prospectively examined 41 patients admitted for acute stroke (NIHSS >1). Early imaging was performed between 1 h and 2 weeks. The imaging protocol included ASL, cePWI, SWI, T2 and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), in addition to standard stroke protocol. Results: We saw four kinds of imaging patterns based on ASL and SWI: patients with either hypoperfusion and hyperperfusion on ASL with or without changes on SWI. Hyperperfusion was observed on ASL in 12/41 cases, with hyperperfusion status that was not evident on conventional cePWI images. Signs of hemorrhage or blood-brain barrier breakdown were visible on SWI in 15/41 cases, not always resulting in poor outcome (2/15 were scored mRS = 0–6). Early SWI changes, together with hypoperfusion, were associated with the occurrence of hemorrhage. Hyperperfusion on ASL, even when associated with hemorrhage detected on SWI, resulted in good outcome. Hyperperfusion predicted a better outcome than hypoperfusion (p = 0.0148). Conclusions: ASL is able to detect acute-stage hyperperfusion corresponding to luxury perfusion previously reported by PET studies. The presence of hyperperfusion on ASL-type perfusion seems indicative of reperfusion/collateral flow that is protective of hemorrhagic transformation and a marker of favorable tissue outcome. The combination of hypoperfusion and changes on SWI seems on the other hand to predict hemorrhage and/or poor outcome.

Microbeam radiation-induced tissue damage depends on the stage of vascular maturation

To explore the effects of microbeam radiation (MR) on vascular biology, we used the chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) model of an almost pure vascular system with immature vessels (lacking periendothelial coverage) at Day 8 and mature vessels (with coverage) at Day 12 of development.

Everolimus augments the effects of sorafenib in a syngeneic orthotopic model of hepatocellular carcinoma

Sorafenib targets the Raf/mitogen-activated protein kinase, VEGF, and platelet-derived growth factor pathways and prolongs survival patients in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Everolimus inhibits the mammalian target of rapamycin, a kinase overactive in HCC. To investigate whether the antitumor effects of these agents are additive, we compared a combined and sequential treatment regimen of everolimus and sorafenib with monotherapy. After hepatic implantation of Morris Hepatoma (MH) cells, rats were randomly allocated to everolimus (5 mg/kg, 2×/week), sorafenib (7.5 mg/kg/d), combined everolimus and sorafenib, sequential sorafenib (2 weeks) then everolimus (3 weeks), or control groups. MRI quantified tumor volumes. Erk1/2, 4E-BP1, and their phosphorylated forms were quantified by immunoblotting. Angiogenesis was assessed in vitro by aortic ring and tube formation assays, and in vivo with Vegf-a mRNA and vascular casts. After 35 days, tumor volumes were reduced by 60%, 85%, and 55%, relative to controls, in everolimus, the combination, and sequential groups, respectively (P < 0.01). Survival was longest in the combination group (P < 0.001). Phosphorylation of 4E-BP1 and Erk1/2 decreased after everolimus and sorafenib, respectively. Angiogenesis decreased after all treatments (P < 0.05), although sorafenib increased Vegf-a mRNA in liver tumors. Vessel sprouting was abundant in control tumors, lower after sorafenib, and absent after the combination. Intussusceptive angiogenic transluminal pillars failed to coalesce after the combination. Combined treatment with everolimus and sorafenib exerts a stronger antitumoral effect on MH tumors than monotherapy. Everolimus retains antitumoral properties when administered sequentially after sorafenib. This supports the clinical use of everolimus in HCC, both in combination with sorafenib or after sorafenib.

Identification of ABCA1 and ABCG1 in milk fat globules and mammary cells--implications for milk cholesterol secretion

The ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters ABCA1 and ABCG1 play an important role in cellular cholesterol homeostasis, but their function in mammary gland (MG) tissue remains elusive. A bovine MG model that allows repeated MG sampling in identical animals at different functional stages was used to test whether 1) ABCA1 and ABCG1 protein expression and subcellular localization in mammary epithelial cells (MEC) change during the pregnancy-lactation cycle, and 2) these 2 proteins were present in milk fat globules (MFG). Expression and localization in MEC were investigated in bovine MG tissues at the end of lactation, during the dry period (DP), and early lactation using immunohistochemical and immunofluorescence approaches. The presence of ABCA1 and ABCG1 in MFG isolated from fresh milk was determined by immunofluorescence. The ABCA1 protein expression in MEC, expressed as arbitrary units, was higher during the end of lactation (12.2±0.24) and the DP (12.5±0.22) as compared with during early lactation (10.2±0.65). In contrast, no significant change in ABCG1 expression existed between the stages. Throughout the cycle, ABCA1 and ABCG1 were detected in the apical (41.9±24.8 and 49.0±4.96% of cows, respectively), basal (56.2±28.1 and 54.6±7.78% of cows, respectively), or entire cytoplasm (56.8±13.4 and 61.6±14.4% of cows, respectively) of MEC, or showed combined localization. Unlike ABCG1, ABCA1 was absent at the apical aspect of MEC during early lactation. Immunolabeling experiments revealed the presence of ABCA1 and ABCG1 in MFG membranes. Findings suggest a differential, functional stage-dependent role of ABCA1 and ABCG1 in cholesterol homeostasis of the MG epithelium. The presence of ABCA1 and ABCG1 in MFG membranes suggests that these proteins are involved in cholesterol exchange between MEC and alveolar milk.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 2: modelling and optimization

This is the second part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The first part addressed the data requirements and data processing required for empirical transient emission and torque models. The current work focuses on modelling and optimization. The unexpected result of this investigation is that when trained on transient data, simple regression models perform better than more powerful methods such as neural networks or localized regression. This result has been attributed to extrapolation over data that have estimated rather than measured transient air-handling parameters. The challenges of detecting and preventing extrapolation using statistical methods that work well with steady-state data have been explained. The concept of constraining the distribution of statistical leverage relative to the distribution of the starting solution to prevent extrapolation during the optimization process has been proposed and demonstrated. Separate from the issue of extrapolation is preventing the search from being quasi-static. Second-order linear dynamic constraint models have been proposed to prevent the search from returning solutions that are feasible if each point were run at steady state, but which are unrealistic in a transient sense. Dynamic constraint models translate commanded parameters to actually achieved parameters that then feed into the transient emission and torque models. Combined model inaccuracies have been used to adjust the optimized solutions. To frame the optimization problem within reasonable dimensionality, the coefficients of commanded surfaces that approximate engine tables are adjusted during search iterations, each of which involves simulating the entire transient cycle. The resulting strategy, different from the corresponding manual calibration strategy and resulting in lower emissions and efficiency, is intended to improve rather than replace the manual calibration process.

Experimentation with different thermodynamic cycles used for pKa calculations on carboxylic acids using Complete Basis Set and Gaussian-n Models combined with CPCM Continuum Solvation Methods

Complete basis set and Gaussian-n methods were combined with Barone and Cossi's implementation of the polarizable conductor model (CPCM) continuum solvation methods to calculate pKa values for six carboxylic acids. Four different thermodynamic cycles were considered in this work. An experimental value of −264.61 kcal/mol for the free energy of solvation of H+, ΔGs(H+), was combined with a value for Ggas(H+) of −6.28 kcal/mol, to calculate pKa values with cycle 1. The complete basis set gas-phase methods used to calculate gas-phase free energies are very accurate, with mean unsigned errors of 0.3 kcal/mol and standard deviations of 0.4 kcal/mol. The CPCM solvation calculations used to calculate condensed-phase free energies are slightly less accurate than the gas-phase models, and the best method has a mean unsigned error and standard deviation of 0.4 and 0.5 kcal/mol, respectively. Thermodynamic cycles that include an explicit water in the cycle are not accurate when the free energy of solvation of a water molecule is used, but appear to become accurate when the experimental free energy of vaporization of water is used. This apparent improvement is an artifact of the standard state used in the calculation. Geometry relaxation in solution does not improve the results when using these later cycles. The use of cycle 1 and the complete basis set models combined with the CPCM solvation methods yielded pKa values accurate to less than half a pKa unit. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem, 2001

Use of the Supermolecule Approach To Model the Syn and Anti Conformations of Solvated Cyclic 3‘,5‘-Adenosine Monophosphate

The supermolecule approach has been used to model the hydration of cyclic 3‘,5‘-adenosine monophosphate, cAMP. Model building combined with PM3 optimizations predict that the anti conformer of cAMP is capable of hydrogen bonding to an additional solvent water molecule compared to the syn conformer. The addition of one water to the syn superstructure with concurrent rotation of the base about the glycosyl bond to form the anti superstructure leads to an additional enthalpy of stabilization of approximately −6 kcal/mol at the PM3 level. This specific solute−solvent interaction is an example of a large solvent effect, as the method predicts that cAMP has a conformational preference for the anti isomer in solution. This conformational preference results from a change in the number of specific solute−solvent interactions in this system. This prediction could be tested by NMR techniques. The number of waters predicted to be in the first hydration sphere around cAMP is in agreement with the results of hydration studies of nucleotides in DNA. In addition, the detailed picture of solvation about this cyclic nucleotide is in agreement with infrared experimental results.