An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

An in vivo approach to tRNA identity

A leucine-inserting tRNA has been transformed into a serine-inserting tRNA by changing 12 nucleotides. Only 8 of the 12 changes are required to effect the conversion of the leucine tRNA to serine tRNA identity. The 8 essential changes reside in basepair 11-24 in the D stem, basepairs 3-70, 2-71 and nucleotides 72 and 73, all of the acceptor stem.

Functional amber suppressor tRNA genes were generated for 14 species of tRNA in E. coli, and their amino acid specificities determined. The suppressors can be classified into three groups, based upon their specificities. Class I suppressors, tRNA^(Ala2)_(CUA), tRNA^(GlyU)_(CUA), tRNA^(HisA)_(CUA), tRNA^(Lys)_(CUA), and tRNA^(ProH)_(CUA), inserted the predicted amino acid. The Class II suppressors, tRNA^(GluA)_(CUA) , tRNA^(GlyT)_(CUA), and tRNA^(Ile1)_(CUA) were either partially or predominantly mischarged by the glutamine aminoacyl tRNA synthetase (AAS). The Class III suppressors, tRNA^(Arg)_(CUA), tRNA^(AspM)_(CUA), tRNA^(Ile2)_(CUA), tRNA^(Thr2)_(CUA), tRNA^(Met(m))_(CUA) and tRNA^(Val)_(CUA) inserted predominantly lysine.

A bayesian probabilistic approach to structural health monitoring

A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

A new adaptive marine policy toolbox to support ecosystem-based approach to management

4 p.

A fundamental approach to phase noise reduction in hybrid Si/III-V lasers

Spontaneous emission into the lasing mode fundamentally limits laser linewidths. Reducing cavity losses provides two benefits to linewidth: (1) fewer excited carriers are needed to reach threshold, resulting in less phase-corrupting spontaneous emission into the laser mode, and (2) more photons are stored in the laser cavity, such that each individual spontaneous emission event disturbs the phase of the field less. Strong optical absorption in III-V materials causes high losses, preventing currently-available semiconductor lasers from achieving ultra-narrow linewidths. This absorption is a natural consequence of the compromise between efficient electrical and efficient optical performance in a semiconductor laser. Some of the III-V layers must be heavily doped in order to funnel excited carriers into the active region, which has the side effect of making the material strongly absorbing.

This thesis presents a new technique, called modal engineering, to remove modal energy from the lossy region and store it in an adjacent low-loss material, thereby reducing overall optical absorption. A quantum mechanical analysis of modal engineering shows that modal gain and spontaneous emission rate into the laser mode are both proportional to the normalized intensity of that mode at the active region. If optical absorption near the active region dominates the total losses of the laser cavity, shifting modal energy from the lossy region to the low-loss region will reduce modal gain, total loss, and the spontaneous emission rate into the mode by the same factor, so that linewidth decreases while the threshold inversion remains constant. The total spontaneous emission rate into all other modes is unchanged.

Modal engineering is demonstrated using the Si/III-V platform, in which light is generated in the III-V material and stored in the low-loss silicon material. The silicon is patterned as a high-Q resonator to minimize all sources of loss. Fabricated lasers employing modal engineering to concentrate light in silicon demonstrate linewidths at least 5 times smaller than lasers without modal engineering at the same pump level above threshold, while maintaining the same thresholds.