First results from a 3-dimensional middle atmosphere model

Initial results are presented from a middle atmosphere extension to a version of the European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting tropospheric model. The extended version of the model has been developed as part of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project and extends from the ground to approximately 90 km. A comprehensive solar radiation scheme is included which uses monthly averaged climatological ozone values. A linearised infrared cooling scheme is employed. The basic climatology of the model is described; the parametrization of drag due to orographically forced gravity waves is shown to have a dramatic effect on the simulations of the winter hemisphere.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

Observed climate variations and change in Vietnam

In this study, observed changes of temperature, rainfall, and some extreme climate indices in Vietnam were investigated by using daily observations during the period 1961-2012. The observed data were collected from 80 meteorological stations for temperature, and from 170 stations for rainfall over the seven climatological sub-regions of Vietnam. Results show that there were insignificant differences between the trends of changes obtained from the 1961-2011 and 1979-2012 periods. Near-surface temperature, including mean (T2m), maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tm), increased consistently at almost all stations. Tm increased faster than Tx. Temperature also increased faster in winter than in summer. Consequently, the number of hot days and warm nights increased whereas the number of cold days, cold nights and cool days decreased. In the northern regions, temperature tended to slightly decrease in May but significantly increased in June. Annual rainfall decreased in the northern area of Vietnam, while it increased at almost all stations in the central regions, and had insignificant trends in the southern sub-region. Changes in some extreme rainfall indices were likely consistent with changes in annual rainfall. Monthly rainfall in the central regions significantly increased from August to December. Rainfall generally increased in May and decreased in June over almost all country.

Precipitation and floodiness

There are a number of factors that lead to non-linearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this non-linearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this non-linearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim Land precipitation reanalysis (1980–2010). We introduced new indices to assess large-scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision-makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to two weeks.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Relativistic dispersion effects on SS433 jets

We here investigate the dispersion properties of radiation in the SS433 relativistic jets. We assume that the jet is composed of cold electron-proton plasma immersed in a predominantly parallel magnetic field to the jet axis. We find that for the mildly relativistic source SS433 (for which similar or equal to 79 degrees), the bulk velocity is too small (v similar or equal to 0.26c) to produce significant changes in the dispersion properties of the medium. Nonetheless, in the rarefied outer regions of the jets, where radio emission dominates, even a weak magnetic field has some influence on the dispersion properties and there appear two different electromagnetic branches that are slightly sensitive to the bulk relativistic motion. In the inner, X-ray region, the magnetic field is much stronger, but in this region the high electron density preserves the isotropic character of the local plasma and no branch separation occurs. In the region of the jet where the IR and optical emission dominates, the cold plasma may be also considered isotropic, i.e., neither the magnetic field nor the bulk velocity is able to affect the propagation of the radiation. Finally, we find that the Doppler line displacement in SS433 is affected by plasma dispersion only in a narrow frequency range in the far IR. As a consequence, although the shift (z) modulation due to precession of the SS433 jets is well described by previous work, it has to be corrected by plasma dispersion effects in the far-IR range.

CDM accelerating cosmology as an alternative to Lambda CDM model

A new accelerating cosmology driven only by baryons plus cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed in the framework of general relativity. In this scenario the present accelerating stage of the Universe is powered by the negative pressure describing the gravitationally-induced particle production of cold dark matter particles. This kind of scenario has only one free parameter and the differential equation governing the evolution of the scale factor is exactly the same of the Lambda CDM model. For a spatially flat Universe, as predicted by inflation (Omega(dm) + Omega(baryon) = 1), it is found that the effectively observed matter density parameter is Omega(meff) = 1 - alpha, where alpha is the constant parameter specifying the CDM particle creation rate. The supernovae test based on the Union data (2008) requires alpha similar to 0.71 so that Omega(meff) similar to 0.29 as independently derived from weak gravitational lensing, the large scale structure and other complementary observations.

Relation between sedimentary framework and hydrogeology in the Guarani Aquifer System in Sao Paulo state, Brazil

This paper presents the results of a new investigation of the Guarani Aquifer System (SAG) in Sao Paulo state. New data were acquired about sedimentary framework, flow pattern, and hydrogeochemistry. The flow direction in the north of the state is towards the southwest and not towards the west as expected previously. This is linked to the absence of SAG outcrop in the northeast of Sao Paulo state. Both the underlying Piramboia Formation and the overlying Botucatu Formation possess high porosity (18.9% and 19.5%, respectively), which was not modified significantly by diagenetic changes. Investigation of sediments confirmed a zone of chalcedony cement close to the SAG outcrop and a zone of calcite cement in the deep confined zone. The main events in the SAG post-sedimentary history were: (1) adhesion of ferrugineous coatings on grains, (2) infiltration of clays in eodiagenetic stage, (3) regeneration of coatings with formation of smectites, (4) authigenic overgrowth of quartz and K-feldspar in advanced eodiagenetic stage, (5) bitumen cementation of Piramboia Formation in mesodiagenetic stage, (6) cementation by calcite in mesodiagenetic and telodiagenetic stages in Piramboia Formation, (7) formation of secondary porosity by dissolution of unstable minerals after appearance of hydraulic gradient and penetration of the meteoric water caused by the uplift of the Serra do Mar coastal range in the Late Cretaceous, (8) authigenesis of kaolinite and amorphous silica in unconfined zone of the SAG and cation exchange coupled with the dissolution of calcite at the transition between unconfined and confined zone, and (9) authigenesis of analcime in the confined SAG zone. The last two processes are still under operation. The deep zone of the SAG comprises an alkaline pH, Na-HCO(3) groundwater type with old water and enriched delta(13)C values (<-3.9), which evolved from a neutral pH, Ca-HCO(3) groundwater type with young water and depleted delta(13)C values (>-18.8) close to the SAG outcrop. This is consistent with a conceptual geochemical model of the SAG, suggesting dissolution of calcite driven by cation exchange, which occurs at a relatively narrow front recently moving downgradient at much slower rate compared to groundwater flow. More depleted values of delta(18)O in the deep confined zone close to the Parana River compared to values of relative recent recharged water indicate recharge occur during a period of cold climate. The SAG is a ""storage-dominated"" type of aquifer which has to be managed properly to avoid its overexploitation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nanocrystalline zirconia powders synthesised by mechanochemical processing

Mechanochemical processing of zirconium and yttrium chloride precursors with lithium hydroxide has been used to synthesise ultrafine powders of yttria-stabilised zirconia. The precursors reacted during milling to form a composite consisting of nanocrystalline oxide grains embedded within a matrix of lithium chloride. The ultrafine powder was recovered subsequently by removing the lithium chloride through washing with deionised water and methanol. The powders were characterised using X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and BET gas adsorption. The sintering behaviour of cold pressed pellets was examined by dilatometry.

Casting yield improvement in graphite iron castings

A well designed runner and feeding system should produce castings with minimal defects and low pour weight. This thesis investigates how the filling regime and solidification of the mould influences defects in the castings produced from that mould. Design guidelines to reduce such defects are proposed and tested. An existing shrinkage fault in a Grey Iron disc brake casting is simulated using a commercial finite-difference computer program. Three criteria are used to predict the defect and the effect of changes to the feeder geometry. Critical Fraction Solidification analysis is used to determine whether the feeder remains in liquid contact with the casting during solidification and this approach is shown to correctly predict the presence or absence of porosity* The feeder block is extended below the ingate of the casting to improve liquid contact between the casting and feeder without significantly increasing the feeder mass. Plant trials confirm the change to the feeder eliminates the porosity defect. The runner system and mould venting for a thin walled Ductile Iron casting are investigated. Trials show that by setting the total mould vent area to be greater than the net ingate area of the castings, the cold-shut frequency is halved. A method for runner system design based on peak linear flow velocity in the runner during mould filling is proposed. A new pressurised runner system produces castings with significantly fewer defects and reduced pour weight when runner areas are designed to maintain peak velocity below 1 m/s. Peak velocity and magnesium levels are demonstrated to be critical factors in the elimination of cold-shut defects. A pressurised runner system is also shown to isolate inclusion defects from castings more effectively than an unpressurised system. From this work, a technique is proposed which allows the yield of an existing runner and feeder system for iron castings to be improved with confidence in the results.

Thermo-mechanical processing and the shape memory effect in an Fe–Mn–Si-based shape memory alloy

The effect of cold rolling and annealing on the shape memory effect (SME) in an Fe–Mn–Si-based alloy has been studied. It has been found
that the SME in these alloys can be significantly increased by the appropriate thermo-mechanical processing (TMP). The optimum conditions
were found to be 15% cold rolling followed by annealing at 800 ◦C for 15 min. This produced a total strain recovery of 4.5%. TEM showed that
this processing schedule produces a microstructure of evenly spaced, and well defined stacking faults throughout the parent phase. It is shown for
the first time that samples processed in this way produce a larger fraction of martensite compared to samples in the as-austenitized condition. It
is concluded that the stacking faults induced by TMP act as nucleation sites for martensite formation during deformation. The SME is improved
primarily as a result of the increased amount of martensite that is formed in this condition.

Muddy ovals under threat from climate change

Questions are raised about the wisdom of continuing the policy of unending global economic growth in the face of climate change. Alternate forms of economic organisation need to be devised, without which global warming may even lead to the elimination of cold, muddy football fields.

Sprint cycling performance is maintained with short-term contrast water immersion

Purpose: Given the widespread use of water immersion during recovery from exercise, we aimed to investigate the effect of contrast water immersion on recovery of sprint cycling performance, HR and, blood lactate.

Methods: Two groups completed high-intensity sprint exercise before and after a 30-min randomized recovery. The Wingate group (n = 8) performed 3 x 30-s Wingate tests (4-min rest periods). The repeated intermittent sprint group (n = 8) cycled for alternating 30-s periods at 40% of predetermined maximum power and 120% maximum power, until exhaustion. Both groups completed three trials using a different recovery treatment for each trial (balanced randomized application). Recovery treatments were passive rest, 1:1 contrast water immersion (2.5 min of cold (8-C) to 2.5 min of hot (40-C)), and 1:4 contrast water immersion (1 min of cold to 4 min of hot). Blood lactate and HR were recorded throughout, and peak power and total work for pre- and postrecovery Wingate performance and exercise time and total work for repeated sprinting were recorded.

Results: Recovery of Wingate peak power was 8% greater after 1:4 contrast water immersion than after passive rest, whereas both contrast water immersion ratios provided a greater recovery of exercise time (È10%) and total work (È14%) for repeated sprinting than for passive rest. Blood lactate was similar between trials. Compared with passive rest, HR initially declined more slowly during contrast water immersion but increased with each transition to a cold immersion phase.

Conclusions: These data support contrast water immersion being effective in maintaining performance during a short-term recovery from sprint exercise. This effect needs further investigation but is likely explained by cardiovascular mechanisms, shown here by an elevation in HR upon each cold immersion.

Approach for testing the material behavior in roll forming in a small scale

Roll forming of ultra-high strength steels (UHSS) and other high strength alloys is an advanced manufacturing methodology with the ability of cold forming those materials to complex three-dimensional shapes for lightweight structural applications. Due to their high strength, most of these materials have a reduced ductility which excludes conventional sheet forming methods under cold forming conditions. Roll forming is possible due to its low strains and incremental forming characteristic. Recent research investigates the development of high strength nano-structured aluminum sheet and titanium alloys, as well as their behaviour in roll forming with regard to formability, material behaviour and shape defects. The development of new materials is often limited to small scale samples due to the high preparation costs. In contrast, industrial application needs larger scale tests for validation, especially in roll forming where a minimum sheet length is required to feed the sample trough the roll forming machine. This work describes a novel technique for studying roll forming of a short length of experimental material. DP780 steel strips (500mm – 1300mm length) were welded between two mild steel carrier sheets of similar width and thickness giving an overall strip length of 2m. Roll forming trials were performed and longitudinal edge strain, bow and springback determined on the welded samples and samples formed of full length DP780 strip before and after cut off. The experimental results of this work show that this method gives a reasonable approach for predicting material behavior in roll forming transverse to the rolling direction. In contrast to that significant differences in longitudinal bow were observed between the welded sections and the sections formed of full length DP780 strip; this indicates that the applicability of this method is limited with regard to predicting longitudinal material behavior in roll forming.