Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

A sensitive, specific and reproducible real-time polymerase chain reaction method for detection of Plasmodium vivaxandPlasmodium falciparum infection in field-collected anophelines

We describe a simple method for detection of Plasmodium vivaxand Plasmodium falciparum infection in anophelines using a triplex TaqMan real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay (18S rRNA). We tested the assay on Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles stephensi colony mosquitoes fed withPlasmodium-infected blood meals and in duplicate on field collected An. darlingi. We compared the real-time PCR results of colony-infected and field collected An. darlingi, separately, to a conventional PCR method. We determined that a cytochromeb-PCR method was only 3.33% as sensitive and 93.38% as specific as our real-time PCR assay with field-collected samples. We demonstrate that this assay is sensitive, specific and reproducible.

Polymerase chain reaction detection of LeishmaniaDNA in skin biopsy samples in Sri Lanka where the causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis is Leishmania donovani

Leishmania donovani is the known causative agent of both cutaneous (CL) and visceral leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka. CL is considered to be under-reported partly due to relatively poor sensitivity and specificity of microscopic diagnosis. We compared robustness of three previously described polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based methods to detectLeishmania DNA in 38 punch biopsy samples from patients presented with suspected lesions in 2010. Both, Leishmaniagenus-specific JW11/JW12 KDNA and LITSR/L5.8S internal transcribed spacer (ITS)1 PCR assays detected 92% (35/38) of the samples whereas a KDNA assay specific forL. donovani (LdF/LdR) detected only 71% (27/38) of samples. All positive samples showed a L. donovani banding pattern upon HaeIII ITS1 PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. PCR assay specificity was evaluated in samples containing Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium leprae, and human DNA, and there was no cross-amplification in JW11/JW12 and LITSR/L5.8S PCR assays. The LdF/LdR PCR assay did not amplify M. leprae or human DNA although 500 bp and 700 bp bands were observed in M. tuberculosis samples. In conclusion, it was successfully shown in this study that it is possible to diagnose Sri Lankan CL with high accuracy, to genus and species identification, using Leishmania DNA PCR assays.

Commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay versuspolymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Chronic Chagas disease diagnosis relies on laboratory tests due to its clinical characteristics. The aim of this research was to review commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test performance. Performance of commercial ELISA or PCR for the diagnosis of chronic Chagas disease were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web, and LILACS through the bibliography from 1980-2014 and by contact with the manufacturers. The risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Heterogeneity was estimated with the I2 statistic. Accuracies provided by the manufacturers usually overestimate the accuracy provided by academia. The risk of bias is high in most tests and in most QUADAS dimensions. Heterogeneity is high in either sensitivity, specificity, or both. The evidence regarding commercial ELISA and ELISA-rec sensitivity and specificity indicates that there is overestimation. The current recommendation to use two simultaneous serological tests can be supported by the risk of bias analysis and the amount of heterogeneity but not by the observed accuracies. The usefulness of PCR tests are debatable and health care providers should not order them on a routine basis. PCR may be used in selected cases due to its potential to detect seronegative subjects.

Consumption heterogenity over the business cycle

We study consumption heterogeneity over the business cycle. Using household panel data from 1984 to 2010 in the US we find that the welfare cost of the business cycle is non-negligible, once agents heterogeneity is taken into account, and sums to about 1% of yearly consumption. This is due to the structure of comovements between the different parts of the consumption distribution, in particular the tails are highly volatile and negatively related to each other. We also find that business cycle fluctuations originating from exogenous financial shocks only hit the top end of the consumption distribution and therefore reduce consumption inequality.

An in-house real-time polymerase chain reaction: standardisation and comparison with the Cobas Amplicor HBV monitor and Cobas AmpliPrep/Cobas TaqMan HBV tests for the quantification of hepatitis B virus DNA

This study aimed to standardise an in-house real-time polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR) to allow quantification of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in serum or plasma samples, and to compare this method with two commercial assays, the Cobas Amplicor HBV monitor and the Cobas AmpliPrep/Cobas TaqMan HBV test. Samples from 397 patients from the state of São Paulo were analysed by all three methods. Fifty-two samples were from patients who were human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus positive, but HBV negative. Genotypes were characterised, and the viral load was measure in each sample. The in-house rtPCR showed an excellent success rate compared with commercial tests; inter-assay and intra-assay coefficients correlated with commercial tests (r = 0.96 and r = 0.913, p < 0.001) and the in-house test showed no genotype-dependent differences in detection and quantification rates. The in-house assay tested in this study could be used for screening and quantifying HBV DNA in order to monitor patients during therapy.

The role of polymerase chain reaction of high-risk human papilloma virus in the screening of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in the anal mucosa of human immunodeficiency virus-positive males having sex with males.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the advantages of cytology and PCR of high-risk human papilloma virus (PCR HR-HPV) infection in biopsy-derived diagnosis of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL = AIN2/AIN3) in HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM). METHODS This is a single-centered study conducted between May 2010 and May 2014 in patients (n = 201, mean age 37 years) recruited from our outpatient clinic. Samples of anal canal mucosa were taken into liquid medium for PCR HPV analysis and for cytology. Anoscopy was performed for histology evaluation. RESULTS Anoscopy showed 33.8% were normal, 47.8% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), and 18.4% HSIL; 80.2% had HR-HPV. PCR of HR-HPV had greater sensitivity than did cytology (88.8% vs. 75.7%) in HSIL screening, with similar positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 20.3 vs. 22.9 and 89.7 vs. 88.1, respectively. Combining both tests increased the sensitivity and NPV of HSIL diagnosis to 100%. Correlation of cytology vs. histology was, generally, very low and PCR of HR-HPV vs. histology was non-existent (<0.2) or low (<0.4). Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve analysis of cytology and PCR HR-HPV for the diagnosis of HSIL was poor (<0.6). Multivariate regression analysis showed protective factors against HSIL were: viral suppression (OR: 0.312; 95%CI: 0.099-0.984), and/or syphilis infection (OR: 0.193; 95%CI: 0.045-0.827). HSIL risk was associated with HPV-68 genotype (OR: 20.1; 95%CI: 2.04-197.82). CONCLUSIONS When cytology and PCR HR-HPV findings are normal, the diagnosis of pre-malignant HSIL can be reliably ruled-out in HIV-positive patients. HPV suppression with treatment protects against the appearance of HSIL.

The identification and differentiation of the Candida parapsilosis complex species by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism of the internal transcribed spacer region of the rDNA

Currently, it is accepted that there are three species that were formerly grouped under Candida parapsilosis: C. para- psilosis sensu stricto, Candida orthopsilosis, andCandida metapsilosis. In fact, the antifungal susceptibility profiles and distinct virulence attributes demonstrate the differences in these nosocomial pathogens. An accurate, fast, and economical identification of fungal species has been the main goal in mycology. In the present study, we searched sequences that were available in the GenBank database in order to identify the complete sequence for the internal transcribed spacer (ITS)1-5.8S-ITS2 region, which is comprised of the forward and reverse primers ITS1 and ITS4. Subsequently, an in silico polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) was performed to differentiate the C. parapsilosis complex species. Ninety-eight clinical isolates from patients with fungaemia were submitted for analysis, where 59 isolates were identified as C. parapsilosis sensu stricto, 37 were identified as C. orthopsilosis, and two were identified as C. metapsilosis. PCR-RFLP quickly and accurately identified C. parapsilosis complex species, making this method an alternative and routine identification system for use in clinical mycology laboratories.

Plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and body weight change.

OBJECTIVE We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers. METHOD A total of 1,998 women and men participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) were followed for a median of 4.9 years. The associations between the proportion of plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 PUFA and change in weight were investigated using mixed-effect linear regression. RESULTS The proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA was not associated with change in weight. Among all participants, the 1-year weight change was -0.7 g per 1% point higher long-chain n-3 PUFA level (95% confidence interval: -20.7 to 19.3). The results when stratified by sex, age, or BMI groups were not systematically different. CONCLUSION The results of this study suggest that the proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA in plasma phospholipids is not associated with subsequent change in body weight within the range of exposure in the general population.

Desenvolupament d'un agent intel·ligent dins el marc de la competició TAC SCM

Aquest projecte està emmarcat dins el grup eXiT d’Intel•lig`encia Artificial del Departament d’Electrònica i Automàtica (EIA) de la Universitat de Girona. Pertany a l’àmbit de la Intel•ligència Artificial i, concretament, en l’apartat d’agents intel•ligents. En el nostre cas, tractarem el desenvolupament d’un agent intel•ligent en un entorn determinat, el de la gestió d’una cadena de producció. Amb l’objectiu de proporcionar un marc experimental on provar diferents tecnologies de suport a la gestió de la cadena de producció, la comunitat d’investigadors va proposar una competició internacional: la Trading Agent Competiton (TAC). En aquesta competició existeixen diferents modalitats. En particular, la Swedish Institution of Computer Science (SICS), juntament amb la Carnegie Mellon University de Pittsburg, Minnesotta, van proposar al 2003 un escenari de muntatge de PC’s basat en el proveïment de recursos, l’embalatge de PC’s i les ventes a clients. Aquesta modalitat és coneguda com aTAC-SCM (Supply Chain Management)

Adaptive business intelligence for an open negotiation environment

Engineering of negotiation model allows to develop effective heuristic for business intelligence. Digital ecosystems demand open negotiation models. To define in advance effective heuristics is not compliant with the requirement of openness. The new challenge is to develop business intelligence in advance exploiting an adaptive approach. The idea is to learn business strategy once new negotiation model rise in the e-market arena. In this paper we present how recommendation technology may be deployed in an open negotiation environment where the interaction protocol models are not known in advance. The solution we propose is delivered as part of the ONE Platform, open source software that implements a fully distributed open environment for business negotiation

A three-pronged approach to social business: a Brazilian multi-case analysis

Social businesses present a new paradigm to capitalism, in which private companies, non-profit organizations and civil society create a new type of business with the main objective of solving social problems with financial sustainability and efficiency through market mechanisms. As any new phenomenon, different authors conceptualize social businesses with distinct views. This article aims to present and characterize three different perspectives of social business definitions: the European, the American and that of the emerging countries. Each one of these views was illustrated by a different Brazilian case. We conclude with the idea that all the cases have similar characteristics, but also relevant differences that are more than merely geographical. The perspectives analyzed in this paper provide an analytical framework for understanding the field of social businesses. Moreover, the cases demonstrate that in the Brazilian context the field of social business is under construction and that as such it draws on different conceptual influences to deal with a complex and challenging reality.

Inclusive business and poverty: prospects in the Brazilian context

Inclusive business is a term currently used to explain the organizations that aim to solve social problems with efficiency and financial sustainability by means of market mechanisms. It can be said that inclusive businesses are those targeted at generating employment and income for groups with little or no market mobility, in keeping with the standards of so-called "decent jobs" and in a self-sustaining manner, i.e., generating profit for the enterprises, and establishing relationships with typical business organizations as suppliers of products and services or in the distribution of this type of production. This article discusses the different concepts found in the scientific literature on inclusive businesses. It also analyses data from a survey conducted with the audiences of Social Corporate Responsibility seminars held by FIEMG. This analysis reveals that prospects, risks and idealizations similar to those found in inclusive business theories can also be found among individuals that run social corporate responsibility projects, even if this designation is new for them. The connection between companies and poverty, especially in relation to inclusive businesses, seems full of stumbling blocks and traps in the Brazilian context.

Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.