Flood risk information, actual floods and property values: A quasi-experimental analysis

Hedonic property price analysis tells us that property prices can be affected by natural hazards such as floods. This paper examines the impact of flood-related variables (among other factors) on property values, and examines the effect of the release of flood risk map information on property values by comparing the impact with the effect of an actual flood incidence. An examination of the temporal variation of flood impacts on property values is also made. The study is the first of its kind where the impact of the release of flood risk map information to the public is compared with an actual flood incident. In this study, we adopt a spatial quasi-experimental analysis using the release of flood risk maps by Brisbane City Council in Queensland, Australia, in 2009 and the actual floods of 2011. The results suggest that property buyers are more responsive to the actual incidence of floods than to the disclosure of information to the public on the risk of floods.

Does gender moderate the relationship between polydrug use and sexual risk-taking among Australian secondary school students under 16 years of age?

Introduction and Aims This study examines the association of alcohol and polydrug use with risky sexual behaviour in adolescents under 16 years of age and if this association differs by gender. Design and Methods The sample consisted of 5412 secondary school students under 16 years of age from Victoria, Australia. Participants completed an anonymous and confidential survey during class time. The key measures were having had sex before legal age of consent (16 years), unprotected sex before 16 (no condom) and latent-class derived alcohol and polydrug use variables based on alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, inhalants and other illegal drug use in the past month. Results There were 7.52% and 2.55% of adolescents who reported having sex and having unprotected sex before 16 years of age, respectively. After adjusting for antisocial behaviours, peers' drug use and family and school risk factors, girls were less likely to have unprotected sex (odds ratio = 0.31, P = 0.003). However, the interaction of being female and polydrug use (odds ratio = 4.52, P = 0.004) was significant, indicating that girls who engaged in polydrug use were at higher risk of having unprotected sex. For boys, the effect of polydrug use was non-significant (odds ratio = 1.44, P = 0.310). Discussion and Conclusions For girls, polydrug use was significantly associated with unprotected sex after adjusting for a range of risk factors, and this relationship was non-significant for boys. Future prevention programs for adolescent risky sexual behaviour and polydrug use might benefit from a tailored approach to gender differences.

Fidgeting is associated with lower mortality risk

Context Evidence from prospective cohort studies has suggested that high volumes of reported daily sitting time is associated with mortality.1 ,2 However, not all have observed the same association.3 Fidgeting (small movements associated with nervousness or impatience), could provide additional energy expenditure when sitting, although the relationship with sitting and health outcomes had yet to be examined. Hagger-Johnson et al examined data from nearly 13 000 women to determine whether fidgeting modified the association between sitting time and mortality. Methods This study featured prospective data from 12 778 participants (aged 37–78 years) in the Women's Cohort Study (UK). Average daily sitting time was reported for weekdays and weekend days, and combined …

Corporate philanthropy, reputation risk management and shareholder value: A study of Australian corporate giving

This study examines the role of corporate philanthropy in the management of reputation risk and shareholder value of the top 100 ASX listed Australian firms for the three years 2011-2013. The results of this study demonstrate the business case for corporate philanthropy and hence encourage corporate philanthropy by showing increasing firms’ investment in corporate giving as a percentage of profit before tax, increases the likelihood of an increase in shareholder value. However, the proviso is that firms must also manage their reputation risk at the same time. There is a negative association between corporate giving and shareholder value (Tobin’s Q) which is mitigated by firms’ management of reputation. The economic significance of this result is that for every cent in the dollar the firm spends on corporate giving, Tobin’s Q will decrease by 0.413%. In contrast, if the firm increase their reputation by 1 point then Tobin’s Q will increase by 0.267%. Consequently, the interaction of corporate giving and reputation risk management is positively associated with shareholder value. These results are robust while controlling for potential endogeneity and reverse causality. This paper assists both academics and practitioners by demonstrating that the benefits of corporate philanthropy extend beyond a gesture to improve reputation or an attempt to increase financial performance, to a direct collaboration between all the factors where the benefits far outweigh the costs.

The effects of marriage partners' socio-economic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland

Väitöskirjatutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten aviopuolisoiden sosioekonominen asema vaikuttaa avioeroriskiin Suomessa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin Tilastokeskuksen rekistereistä koottua aineistoa, joka koskee suomalaisten ensimmäisiä avioliittoja vuoden 1990 lopussa ja avioeroja vuosina 1991−93. Väitöskirjaan sisältyy kolme osatutkimusta. Ensimmäinen osatutkimus käsitteli avioeroriskin vaihtelua aviopuolisoiden sosioekonomisen aseman eri osatekijöiden (koulutusaste, sosiaaliryhmä, pääasiallinen toiminta, tulotaso, asunnon omistaminen ja asumisahtaus) mukaan. Kaiken kaikkiaan avioeroriski oli sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa aviopuolisot olivat. Esimerkiksi miehen ja vaimon korkea koulutusaste, toimihenkilöammatti, työssäkäynti (etenkin verrattuna työttömyyteen) sekä omistusasunnossa asuminen liittyivät pienentyneeseen avioeroriskiin. Vaimon sosioekonomisen aseman yhteys avioeroriskiin oli paljolti samanlainen kuin miehen aseman yhteys. Huomattavin poikkeus tähän oli, että vaimon suuret tulot lisäsivät avioeroriskiä, vaikka miehen suurilla tuloilla oli päinvastainen vaikutus. Lisäksi kotitaloustyötä pääasiallisena toimintanaan tekevillä naisilla (pääasiallisen toiminnan luokka ”muut”) oli vielä pienempi avioeroriski kuin työssäkäyvillä naisilla. Toisessa osatutkimuksessa keskityttiin aviomiehen ja vaimon aseman yhdistettyyn vaikutukseen. Selviä viitteitä siitä, että puolisoiden koulutustasojen erilaisuus lisäisi eroriskiä, ei saatu. Pareilla, joissa molemmilla oli enintään perusasteen koulutus, oli kuitenkin odotettua pienempi avioeroriski. Eroriski oli suhteellisen alhainen pareilla, joissa vaimo oli työssäkäyvä tai kotitaloustyötä tekevä ja aviomies työssäkäyvä. Eroriskiä kasvatti se, että aviomies, vaimo tai molemmat puolisot olivat työttömiä. Vaimon korkea tulotaso lisäsi eroriskiä miehen kaikilla tulotasoilla mutta erityisen voimakkaasti silloin, kun miehen tulotaso oli alhainen. Kolmanneksi selvitettiin, vaikuttaako puolisoiden sosioekonominen asema avioeroriskiin eri tavalla riippuen siitä, kauanko avioliitto on kestänyt. Tällöin havaittiin, että vähän koulutettujen ja työntekijäammateissa toimivien puolisoiden suuri eroriski rajoittuu paljolti nuorimpiin avioliittoihin. Sen sijaan esim. puolisoiden työttömyys, vaimon korkea tulotaso ja vuokra-asunnossa asuminen kasvattivat eroriskiä riippumatta siitä, kuinka kauan avioliitto oli kestänyt. Kaiken kaikkiaan eroriski oli siis sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa puolisot olivat. Vaimon taloudellisilla ja sosiaalisilla resursseilla näyttää kuitenkin olevan myös joitakin avioeroriskiä lisääviä vaikutuksia.

Identifying Genetic Risk Factors in Canine Autoimmune Disorders

Autoimmune diseases are more common in dogs than in humans and are already threatening the future of some highly predisposed dog breeds. Susceptibility to autoimmune diseases is controlled by environmental and genetic factors, especially the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) gene region. Dogs show a similar physiology, disease presentation and clinical response as humans, making them an excellent disease model for autoimmune diseases common to both species. The genetic background of canine autoimmune disorders is largely unknown, but recent annotation of the dog genome and subsequent development of new genomic tools offer a unique opportunity to map novel autoimmune genes in various breeds. Many autoimmune disorders show breed-specific enrichment, supporting a strong genetic background. Furthermore, the presence of hundreds of breeds as genetic isolates facilitates gene mapping in complex autoimmune disorders. Identification of novel predisposing genes establishes breeds as models and may reveal novel candidate genes for the corresponding human disorders. Genetic studies will eventually shed light on common biological functions and interactions between genes and the environment. This study aimed to identify genetic risk factors in various autoimmune disorders, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-related diseases, comprising immune-mediated rheumatic disease (IMRD) and steroid-responsive meningitis arteritis (SMRA) as well as Addison s disease (AD) in Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers (NSDTRs) and chronic superficial keratitis (CSK) in German Shepherd dogs (GSDs). We used two different approaches to identify genetic risk factors. Firstly, a candidate gene approach was applied to test the potential association of MHC class II, also known as a dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) in canine species. Secondly, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed to identify novel risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD in NSDTRs. We identified DLA risk haplotypes for an IMRD subphenotype of SLE-related disease, AD and CSK, but not in SMRA, and show that the MHC class II gene region is a major genetic risk factor in canine autoimmune diseases. An elevated risk was found for IMRD in dogs that carried the DLA-DRB1*00601/DQA1*005011/DQB1*02001 haplotype (OR = 2.0, 99% CI = 1.03-3.95, p = 0.01) and for ANA-positive IMRD dogs (OR = 2.3, 99% CI = 1.07-5.04, p-value 0.007). We also found that DLA-DRB1*01502/DQA*00601/DQB1*02301 haplotype was significantly associated with AD in NSDTRs (OR = 2.1, CI = 1.0-4.4, P = 0.044) and the DLA-DRB1*01501/DQA1*00601/DQB1*00301 haplotype with the CSK in GSDs (OR=2.67, CI=1.17-6.44, p= 0.02). In addition, we found that homozygosity for the risk haplotype increases the risk for each disease phenotype and that an overall homozygosity for the DLA region predisposes to CSK and AD. Our results have enabled the development of genetic tests to improve breeding practices by avoiding the production of puppies homozygous for risk haplotypes. We also performed the first successful GWAS for a complex disease in dogs. With less than 100 cases and 100 controls, we identified five risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD and found strong candidate genes involved in a novel T-cell activation pathway. We show that an inbred dog population has fewer risk factors, but each of them has a stronger genetic risk. Ongoing studies aim to identify the causative mutations and bring new knowledge to help diagnostics, treatment and understanding of the aetiology of SLE-related diseases.

Cystatin C, a measure of renal function, as prognostic risk marker in acute heart failure : Studies on the cardiorenal syndrome

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with exceptionally high mortality. Still, characteristics and prognostic factors of contemporary AHF patients have been inadequately studied. Kidney function has emerged as a very powerful prognostic risk factor in cardiovascular disease. This is believed to be the consequence of an interaction between the heart and kidneys, also termed the cardiorenal syndrome, the mechanisms of which are not fully understood. Renal insufficiency is common in heart failure and of particular interest for predicting outcome in AHF. Cystatin C (CysC) is a marker of glomerular filtration rate with properties making it a prospective alternative to the currently used measure creatinine for assessment of renal function. The aim of this thesis is to characterize a representative cohort of patients hospitalized for AHF and to identify risk factors for poor outcome in AHF. In particular, the role of CysC as a marker of renal function is evaluated, including examination of the value of CysC as a predictor of mortality in AHF. The FINN-AKVA (Finnish Acute Heart Failure) study is a national prospective multicenter study conducted to investigate the clinical presentation, aetiology and treatment of, as well as concomitant diseases and outcome in, AHF. Patients hospitalized for AHF were enrolled in the FINN-AKVA study, and mortality was followed for 12 months. The mean age of patients with AHF is 75 years and they frequently have both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular co-morbidities. The mortality after hospitalization for AHF is high, rising to 27% by 12 months. The present study shows that renal dysfunction is very common in AHF. CysC detects impaired renal function in forty percent of patients. Renal function, measured by CysC, is one of the strongest predictors of mortality independently of other prognostic risk markers, such as age, gender, co-morbidities and systolic blood pressure on admission. Moreover, in patients with normal creatinine values, elevated CysC is associated with a marked increase in mortality. Acute kidney injury, defined as an increase in CysC within 48 hours of hospital admission, occurs in a significant proportion of patients and is associated with increased short- and mid-term mortality. The results suggest that CysC can be used for risk stratification in AHF. Markers of inflammation are elevated both in heart failure and in chronic kidney disease, and inflammation is one of the mechanisms thought to mediate heart-kidney interactions in the cardiorenal syndrome. Inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) correlate very differently to markers of cardiac stress and renal function. In particular, TNF-α showed a robust correlation to CysC, but was not associated with levels of NT-proBNP, a marker of hemodynamic cardiac stress. Compared to CysC, the inflammatory markers were not strongly related to mortality in AHF. In conclusion, patients with AHF are elderly with multiple co-morbidities, and renal dysfunction is very common. CysC demonstrates good diagnostic properties both in identifying impaired renal function and acute kidney injury in patients with AHF. CysC, as a measure of renal function, is also a powerful prognostic marker in AHF. CysC shows promise as a marker for assessment of kidney function and risk stratification in patients hospitalized for AHF.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene polymorphisms and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) is a critical enzyme in folate metabolism and is involved in DNA synthesis, DNA repair and DNA methylation. Genetic polymorphisms of this enzyme have been shown to impact several diseases, including cancer. Leukemias are malignancies arising from rapidly proliferating hematopoietic cells having great requirement of DNA synthesis. This case-control study was undertaken to analyze the association of the MTHFR gene polymorphisms 677 C"T and 1298 A"C and the risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children. Materials and Methods: Eighty-six patients aged below 15 years with a confirmed diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and 99 matched controls were taken for this study. Analysis of the polymorphisms was done using the polymerase chain reaction -restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Results: Frequency of MTHFR 677 CC and CT were 85.9% and 14.1% in the controls, and 84.9% and 15.1% in the cases. The 'T' allele frequency was 7% and 7.5% in cases and controls respectively. The frequency of MTHFR 1298 AA, AC, and CC were 28.3%, 55.6% and 16.1% for controls and 23.3%, 59.3% and 17.4% for cases respectively. The 'C' allele frequency for 1298 A→C was 43.9% and 47% respectively for controls and cases. The odds ratio (OR) for C677T was 1.08 (95% CI 0.48- 2.45, p = 0.851) and OR for A1298C was 1.29(95% CI 0.65-2.29, p = 0.46) and OR for 1298 CC was 1.31 (95% CI 0.53-3.26, p =0.56). The OR for the combined heterozygous status (677 CT and 1298 AC) was 1.94 (95% CI 0.58 -6.52, p = 0.286). Conclusion: The prevalence of 'T' allele for 677 MTHFR polymorphism was low in the population studied. There was no association between MTHFR 677 C→T and 1298 A→C gene polymorphisms and risk of ALL, which may be due to the small sample size.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

Essays on Risk and Return

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Essays on Stock Option Compensation and the Role of Incentives and Risk (summary section only)

Managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity has increased rapidly around the world. Early empirical research showed that pay-for-performance sensitivity resulting from stock ownership and stock options appeared to be quite low during the 1970s and early 1980s in the U.S. However, recent empirical research from the U.S. shows an enormous increase in pay-for-performance sensitivity. The global trend has also reached Finland, where stock options have become a major ingredient of executive compensation. The fact that stock options seem to be an appealing form of remuneration from a theoretical point of view combined with the observation that the use of this compensation form has increased significantly during the recent years, implies that research on the dynamics of stock option compensation is highly relevant for the academic community, as well as for practitioners and regulators. The research questions of the thesis are analyzed in four separate essays. The first essay examines whether stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms are consistent with predictions from principal-agent theory. The second essay explores one of the major puzzles in the compensation literature by studying determinants of stock option contract design. In theory, optimal contract design should vary according to firm characteristics. However, in the U.S., variation in contract design seems to be surprisingly low, a phenomenon generally attributed to tax and accounting considerations. In Finland, however, firms are not subject to stringent contracting restrictions, and the variation in contract design tends, in fact, to be quite substantial. The third essay studies the impact of price- and risk incentives arising from stock option compensation on firm investment. In addition, the essay explores one of the most debated questions in the literature, in particular, the relation between incentives and firm performance. Finally, several strands of literature in both economics and corporate finance hypothesize that economic uncertainty is related to corporate decision-making. Previous research has shown that risk tends to slow down firm investment. In the fourth essay, it is hypothesized that firm risk slows down growth from a more universal perspective. Consistent with this view, it is shown that risk not only tends to slow down firm investment, but also employment growth. Moreover, the essay explores whether the nature of firms’ compensation policies, in particular, whether firms make use of stock option compensation, affects the relation between risk and firm growth. In summary, the four essays contribute to the current understanding of stock options as a form of equity incentives, and how incentives and risk affect corporate decision-making. By this, the thesis promotes the knowledge related to the modern theory of the firm.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.