Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Nitrogen uptake of phytoplankton assemblages under contrasting upwelling and downwelling conditions: The Ría de Vigo, NW Iberia

Regenerated production (including organic nitrogen) is shown here to be important in the Ria de Vigo (Galicia, NW Iberia) in supporting both harmful algal bloom communities during the downwelling season, but also (to a lesser extent) diatom communities during stratified periods of weak to moderate upwelling. The Galician Rias, situated in the Iberian upwelling system, are regularly affected by blooms of toxic dinoflagellates, which pose serious threats to the local mussel farming industry. These tend to occur towards the end of summer, during the transition from upwelling to downwelling favourable seasons, when cold bottom shelf waters in the rias are replaced by warm surface shelf waters. Nitrate, ammonium and urea uptake rates were measured in the Ria de Vigo during a downwelling event in September 2006 and during an upwelling event in June 2007. In September the ria was well mixed, with a downwelling front observed towards the middle of the ria and relatively high nutrient concentrations (1.0-2.6 mu mol L-1 nitrate; 1.0-5.6 mu mol L-1 ammonium; 0.1-0.8 mu mol L-1 phosphate; 2.0-9.0 mu mol L-1 silicic acid) were present throughout the water column. Ammonium represented more than 80% of the nitrogenous nutrients, and the phytoplankton assemblage was dominated by dinoflagellates and small flagellates. In June the water column was stratified, with nutrient-rich, upwelled water below the thermocline and warm, nutrient-depleted water in the surface. At this time, nitrate represented more than 80% of the nitrogenous nutrients, and a mixed diatom assemblage was present. Primary phytoplankton production during both events was mainly sustained by regenerated nitrogen, with ammonium uptake rates of 0.035-0.063 mu mol N L-1 h(-1) in September and 0.078-0.188 mu mol N L-1 h(-1) in June. Although f-ratios were generally low (<0.2) in both June and September, a maximum of 0.61 was reached in June due to higher nitrate uptake (0.225 mu mol N L-1 h(-1)). Total nitrogen uptake was also higher during the upwelling event (0.153-0.366 in June and 0.053-0.096 mu mol N L-1 h(-1) in September). Nitrogen uptake kinetics demonstrated a strong preference for ammonium and urea over nitrate in June.