909 resultados para ambiguity aversion
Resumo:
Este estudo teve como objetivos investigar aspectos da dinâmica intrapsíquica de mães de crianças institucionalizadas em abrigo por ordem judicial, e identificar recursos defensivos utilizados por essas mães. Para atingir estes objetivos, realizou-se uma investigação clínica com estudo de três casos de mães de crianças abrigadas. Foram utilizados dois instrumentos: a) Roteiro de Entrevista roteiro de temas a serem abordados em uma ou mais entrevistas não diretivas de cunho clínico, a fim de auxiliar na investigação da psicodinâmica destas mães. b) Procedimento de Desenho Estória com Tema técnica projetiva que associa o uso de desenhos com estórias, como forma de explorar livre e dinamicamente os conteúdos da personalidade. A técnica permite o estudo das características formais e estruturais da personalidade, pois tem a particularidade de facilitar a expressão de aspectos inconscientes relacionados a pontos de angústias presentes, focos conflituosos e perturbações emergentes. Estes procedimentos foram realizados nas dependências da instituição (abrigo) onde as crianças estavam hospedadas. Os principais resultados comuns aos três casos foram: Ambigüidade e os Impeditivos de Crescimento a primeira mãe entrevistada ao mesmo tempo ataca a mãe que a abandona (mãe biológica e a mãe adotiva), em busca de uma mãe idealizada. Essa ambigüidade a impede de crescer. Nota-se a mesma tentativa de idealização na segunda mãe estudada que demonstra dificuldade em aceitar a atual situação em que vive e não consegue perceber que a aproximação de sua mãe é por causa da doença que ela adquiriu e não por continência. A terceira e última mãe entrevistada demonstra conteúdos persecutórios diante do abrigamento dos filhos e dificuldade de sentir gratidão. Os mecanismos predominantes que aparecem nos três casos são os de: idealização e regressão a estágios primitivos. Nota-se ainda, depressão, dificuldade de elaboração da posição depressiva. Estas mães não conseguem vivenciar continuamente a realidade psíquica, que implicaria na elaboração da posição depressiva, pois não conseguem fazer, ainda que tentem, uma comparação entre os mundos interno e externo, o que as levariam à uma melhor compreensão das semelhanças e diferenças. De modo que, a figura dos pais (principalmente da mãe) fica cindida entre aterrorizante e idealizada, porém os mecanismos predominantes são suas fantasias que propiciam idealização; identificação projetiva maciça. A persecutoriedade e a culpa, ao mesmo tempo parecem indicar a depressão que pode ser tão forte que levam à intensificação destes sentimentos. Há a presença da inveja que também intensifica as angústias persecutórias, requerendo mecanismos de defesa que violentam as funções psíquicas.(AU)
Resumo:
Despite being widely acknowledged as one of the most important German dramatists since Bertolt Brecht, Heiner Muller (1929-95) still remains relatively unknown in the English-speaking world. This collection of plays aims to change that, presenting new translations and opening up his work to a larger audience. Collected here are three of his plays - "Philoctetes", "The Horatian", and "Mauser" - that together constitute what Muller called an "experimental series," which both develops and critiques Brecht's theory of the Lehrstuck, or "learning play." Based on a tragedy by Sophocles, Philoctetes dramatizes the confrontation between politics, morality, and the desire for revenge. The Horatian uses an incident from ancient Rome as an example of ways of approaching the moral ambiguity of the past. Finally, Mauser, set during the Russian civil war, examines the nature and ethics of revolutionary violence. The plays are accompanied by supporting materials written by Muller himself, as well as an introduction by Uwe Schutte that contextualizes the plays and speaks of their continued relevance today.
Resumo:
The retrieval of wind fields from scatterometer observations has traditionally been separated into two phases; local wind vector retrieval and ambiguity removal. Operationally, a forward model relating wind vector to backscatter is inverted, typically using look up tables, to retrieve up to four local wind vector solutions. A heuristic procedure, using numerical weather prediction forecast wind vectors and, often, some neighbourhood comparison is then used to select the correct solution. In this paper we develop a Bayesian method for wind field retrieval, and show how a direct local inverse model, relating backscatter to wind vector, improves the wind vector retrieval accuracy. We compare these results with the operational U.K. Meteorological Office retrievals, our own CMOD4 retrievals and a neural network based local forward model retrieval. We suggest that the neural network based inverse model, which is extremely fast to use, improves upon current forward models when used in a variational data assimilation scheme.
Resumo:
The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about km800, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of radar back scatter generated by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by instantaneous local winds. Operational methods that extract wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data are based on the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, by the minimisation of a cost function in the scatterometer measurement space.par This report uses mixture density networks, a principled method for modelling conditional probability density functions, to model the joint probability distribution of the wind vectors given the satellite scatterometer measurements in a single cell (the `inverse' problem). The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated by varying the number of units in the hidden layer of the multi-layer perceptron and the number of kernels in the Gaussian mixture model of the mixture density network respectively. The optimal model for networks trained per trace has twenty hidden units and four kernels. Further investigation shows that models trained with incidence angle as an input have results comparable to those models trained by trace. A hybrid mixture density network that incorporates geophysical knowledge of the problem confirms other results that the conditional probability distribution is dominantly bimodal.par The wind retrieval results improve on previous work at Aston, but do not match other neural network techniques that use spatial information in the inputs, which is to be expected given the ambiguity of the inverse problem. Current work uses the local inverse model for autonomous ambiguity removal in a principled Bayesian framework. Future directions in which these models may be improved are given.
Resumo:
This paper departs from this point to consider whether and how crisis thinking contributes to practices of affirmative critique and transformative social action in late-capitalist societies. I argue that different deployments of crisis thinking have different ‘affect-effects’ and consequences for ethical and political practice. Some work to mobilize political action through articulating a politics of fear, assuming that people take most responsibility for the future when they fear the alternatives. Other forms of crisis thinking work to heighten critical awareness by disrupting existential certainty, asserting an ‘ethics of ambiguity’ which assumes that the continuous production of uncertain futures is a fundamental part of the human condition (de Beauvoir, 2000). In this paper, I hope to illustrate that the first deployment of crisis thinking can easily justify the closing down of political debate, discouraging radical experimentation and critique for the sake of resolving problems in a timely and decisive way. The second approach to crisis thinking, on the other hand, has greater potential to enable intellectual and political alterity in everyday life—but one that poses considerable challenges for our understandings of and responses to climate change...
Resumo:
This empirical case study of a business school internationalisation process investigates the relationship between rhetoric, ambiguity and strategic action in a garbage can context. Our data showed that rhetoric structured the garbage can and reduced the randomness of the strategy-making process in two ways. First, rhetoric enabled actors to distinguish between two uses of ambiguity - maximising ambiguity to avoid action, and minimising ambiguity to enact action. Rhetorics that maximised ambiguity were most frequent at the start of the strategy process; rhetorics that minimised ambiguity were most common later in the strategy process. Second, rhetoric provided structure by linking solutions, problems and participants to choice opportunities to enable action and by negating links between solutions, problems and participants and choice opportunities in order to enable inaction.
Resumo:
Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is the measurement of the magnetic fields generated outside the head by the brain’s electrical activity. The technique offers the promise of high temporal and spatial resolution. There is however an ambiguity in the inversion process of estimating what goes on inside the head from what is measured outside. Other techniques, such as functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) have no such inversion problems yet suffer from poorer temporal resolution. In this study we examined metrics of mutual information and linear correlation between volumetric images from the two modalities. Measures of mutual information reveal a significant, non-linear, relationship between MEG and fMRI datasets across a number of frequency bands.
Resumo:
This study examines the effect of budgetary participation on departmental performance via budget adequacy, organisational commitment and role ambiguity. The responses of 108 budget preparers and budget users drawn from a cross-section of Malaysian local authorities, to a questionnaire survey were analysed by using mediation analysis, path analysis and Pearson Product-Moment Correlation technique. The results suggest that budget adequacy, organisational commitment, and role ambiguity are important links in the process. The results of this study suggest that the relationship between budget participation and departmental performance is statistically, significantly, positively and marginally correlated. Of more interest was the finding that budget adequacy, organisational commitment, and role ambiguity are important intervening variables in the relationship between budget participation and departmental performance. The test for mediation effect, demonstrated that budget adequacy, organisational commitment, and role ambiguity had partially mediated the relationship of budget participation and departmental performance. These three variables act as partial mediators when they significantly reduced or decreased the path coefficient of budget participation and departmental performance rather than eliminating the relationship. Furthermore, the test for direct and indirect effect of budget participation on departmental performance, suggests that budget participation predicted or affected departmental performance more strongly in the indirect way than it did in a direct way. This suggests that, even though the correlation between budget participation and departmental performance was significant, the path interpretation suggests that the correlation arose because budget participation was correlated with other variables that have direct effect upon departmental performance not budget participation itself directly predicted departmental performance. Therefore, there is enough evidence to suggest that budget participation of budget preparers and budget users affects departmental performance of Malaysian local authorities indirectly via budget adequacy, organisational commitment and role ambiguity. Among the indirect effects, the link between budget participation, budget adequacy, organisational commitment, role ambiguity and departmental performance may be the most important in term of this study’s contribution. The decomposition of the observed correlation between budget participation, budget adequacy, organisational commitment and role ambiguity showed that budget 3 participation of budget preparers and budget users of Malaysian local authorities in the budget setting has direct effect on budget adequacy, organisational commitment and role ambiguity. Budget adequacy and organisational commitment was directly related. However, the relationship of role ambiguity and organisational commitment in this study was indirectly related. This suggests that participation of budget preparers and budget users in the budget setting of Malaysian local authorities lead to decrease role ambiguity that provide adequate budgetary supports, which lead to increase organisational commitment and thus enhance departmental performance. In relation to the strength of the relationships of the variables undertaken for the study, the overall relationships between variables are significant and positively related except that of role ambiguity relationship. The relationships of role ambiguity with budget participation, budget adequacy, organisational performance and departmental performance are negatively related.
Resumo:
An astigmatic scheme of a laser wavelength meter based on a single air-gap Fizeau interferometer is described. For a multimode laser, the accuracy in determining the center of gravity of a spectrum is within 1GHz. Two complementary testing techniques are proposed for the instrument. By using them, it was shown for the first time that, for this type of meters, a systematic error arises and increases with a decrease in the radiation-spectrum width. The effect is periodic in the lasing frequency and results from a weak beam that is brought about by a reflection from the front surface of the interferometer. Moreover, in the previously designed optical schemes, this effect is so strong that unambiguous determination of the wavelength of a single-frequency radiation is impossible. The use of an astigmatic scheme helps additionally attenuate the influence of the third beam, thus eliminating the ambiguity in the results and reducing the absolute error to a value of ±1.5 GHz.
Resumo:
This thesis begins with a sociolinguistic correlational study of three phonetic variables - (h), (t) and (ing) - as used by four occupational groups - nurses, chefs, hairdressers and taxi-drivers. The groups were selected to incorporate three independent variables: sex (male-dominated versus female-dominated occupations); training (length and specialisation - nurses and chefs being more specialised than hairdressers and taxi-drivers) and location (the populations were selected from two cities - Liverpool and Birmingham). Although the correlational work demonstrates intra-sex and occupation consistency in speakers' choice of linguistic variants (females (particularly nurses) being significantly closer to the prestige norm), it is essentially non-explanatory and cannot accout for narrative dynamics and style shift. Therefore, an in-depth qualitative examination of the data (which draws mainly on Narrative and Discourse Analysis) forms the major part of the analysis. The study first analyses features common to all the narratives, direct speech, expressive phonology and linguistic ambiguity emerging as characteristic of all humorous storytelling. Secondly, three major sources of inter-personal variation are invetigated: narrator perspective, sex and occuptational role. Perspective is found to vary with topic and personality, greater narrator involvement coinciding with a higher proportion of internal evaluation devices. Sex differences include topic choice and bonding in the storytelling sessions. Sex differences are also evident in style shifting, where the narrator mimics the voice of a character in the narrative (aodpting segmental and/or prosodic tokens to signal a change of persona). The research finds that female narrators rarely employ segmental accommodation downwards on the social scale (whereas men do), but are on the other hand adept at using prosodic effects for mimicry. Taxi-drivers emerge as the group with the most distinctive narrative flair, a fact which is related to their occupation. The conclusion stresses a need for both quantitative and qualitative approaches to data; the importance of occupational role, as opposed to sex role per se in determining narrative conventions; the view of narrative as a negotiable entity, which is the product of relationships among participants; and the importance of considering the totality of the communicative act.
Resumo:
The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about 800 km, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of backscatter microwave radiation reflected by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by sea-surface winds, and so provides instantaneous snap-shots of wind flow over large areas of the ocean surface, known as wind fields. Inherent in the physics of the observation process is an ambiguity in wind direction; the scatterometer cannot distinguish if the wind is blowing toward or away from the sensor device. This ambiguity implies that there is a one-to-many mapping between scatterometer data and wind direction. Current operational methods for wind field retrieval are based on the retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data, followed by a disambiguation and filtering process that is reliant on numerical weather prediction models. The wind vectors are retrieved by the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, and minimising a cost function in scatterometer measurement space. This thesis applies a pragmatic Bayesian solution to the problem. The likelihood is a combination of conditional probability distributions for the local wind vectors given the scatterometer data. The prior distribution is a vector Gaussian process that provides the geophysical consistency for the wind field. The wind vectors are retrieved directly from the scatterometer data by using mixture density networks, a principled method to model multi-modal conditional probability density functions. The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated. A hybrid mixture density network, that incorporates the knowledge that the conditional probability distribution of the observation process is predominantly bi-modal, is developed. The optimal model, which generalises across a swathe of scatterometer readings, is better on key performance measures than the current operational model. Wind field retrieval is approached from three perspectives. The first is a non-autonomous method that confirms the validity of the model by retrieving the correct wind field 99% of the time from a test set of 575 wind fields. The second technique takes the maximum a posteriori probability wind field retrieved from the posterior distribution as the prediction. For the third technique, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were employed to estimate the mass associated with significant modes of the posterior distribution, and make predictions based on the mode with the greatest mass associated with it. General methods for sampling from multi-modal distributions were benchmarked against a specific MCMC transition kernel designed for this problem. It was shown that the general methods were unsuitable for this application due to computational expense. On a test set of 100 wind fields the MAP estimate correctly retrieved 72 wind fields, whilst the sampling method correctly retrieved 73 wind fields.
Resumo:
Personal selling and sales management play a critical role in the short and long term success of the firm, and have thus received substantial academic interest since the 1970s. Sales research has examined the role of the sales manager in some depth, defining a number of key technical and interpersonal roles which sales managers have in influencing sales force effectiveness. However, one aspect of sales management which appears to remain unexplored is that of their resolution of salesperson-related problems. This study represents the first attempt to address this gap by reporting on the conceptual and empirical development of an instrument designed to measure sales managers' problem resolution styles. A comprehensive literature review and qualitative research study identified three key constructs relating to sales managers' problem resolution styles. The three constructs identified were termed; sales manager willingness to respond, sales manager caring, and sales manager aggressiveness. Building on this, existing literature was used to develop a conceptual model of salesperson-specific consequences of the three problem resolution style constructs. The quantitative phase of the study consisted of a mail survey of UK salespeople, achieving a total sample of 140 fully usable responses. Rigorous statistical assessment of the sales manager problem resolution style measures was undertaken, and construct validity examined. Following this, the conceptual model was tested using latent variable path analysis. The results for the model were encouraging overall, and also with regard to the individual hypotheses. Sales manager problem resolution styles were found individually to have significant impacts on the salesperson-specific variables of role ambiguity, emotional exhaustion, job satisfaction, organisational commitment and organisational citizenship behaviours. The findings, theoretical and managerial implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.
Resumo:
This thesis is concerned with an empirical investigation of the factors that predict a successful salesperson, using a cross-cultural comparison of two countries: the UK and Malaysia. Besides collecting quantitative data, qualitative data on organisational, environmental and cultural factors were also collected through interviews, personal and case observations. The quantitative data consist of sixteen independent factors and three dependent factors. The independent variables include self-efficacy, self-esteem, locus of control, self-monitoring, extrinsic motivation, intrinsic motivation, experience, training perception, role ambiguity, role conflict, role inaccuracy, gender, age, education, race and religion. The dependent variables are performance target achieved, performance earnings and performance ratings. Questionnaires were distributed to about 500 salespersons in each country, from three insurance companies in the UK and two insurance companies in Malaysia. Response rates were 75 and 50 percent from the UK and Malaysia respectively. The survey results indicated that a salesperson's performance in the UK is predicted by self-efficacy, internal locus of control, self-esteem, extrinsic motivation, experience, training perceptions, role conflict and gender. In Malaysia, a salesperson's performance is predicted by self-efficacy, self-monitoring, experience, role conflict, role ambiguity, education, gender, race and religion. Self-efficacy, experience, role conflict and gender are common predictors of salespersons' performance in both cultures. The likely explanation for these results is culture differences, i.e. UK has a homogeneous culture, while Malaysia has a heterogeneous one. Results from the case observations, such as organisational and environmental factors, give supporting evidence in explaining the empirical results. Implications from the findings are discussed from two aspects: (1) theoretical implications for divergence/convergence theory, Hofstede's model, Churchill's model, and (2) managerial implications for selection, training, motivation and appraisal.
Resumo:
This thesis is concerned with the use of the synoptic approach within decision making concerning nuclear waste management. The synoptic approach to decision making refers to an approach to rational decision making that assumes as an ideal, comprehensiveness of information and analysis. Two case studies are examined in which a high degree of synoptic analysis has been used within the decision making process. The case studies examined are the Windscale Inquiry into the decision to build the THORP reprocessing plant and the Nirex safety assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The case studies are used to test Lindblom's hypothesis that a synoptic approach to decision making is not achievable. In the first case study Lindblom's hypothesis is tested through the evaluation of the decision to build the THORP plant, taken following the Windscale Inquiry. It is concluded that the incongruity of this decision supports Lindblom's hypothesis. However, it has been argued that the Inquiry should be seen as a legitimisation exercise for a decision that was effectively predetermined, rather than a rigorous synoptic analysis. Therefore, the Windscale Inquiry does not provide a robust test of the synoptic method. It was concluded that a methodology was required, that allowed robust conclusions to be drawn, despite the ambiguity of the role of the synoptic method in decision making. Thus, the methodology adopted for the second case study was modified. In this case study the synoptic method was evaluated directly. This was achieved through the analysis of the cogency of the Nirex safety assessment. It was concluded that the failure of Nirex to provide a cogent synoptic analysis supported Lindblom's criticism of the synoptic method. Moreover, it was found that the synoptic method failed in the way that Lindblom predicted that it would.
Resumo:
In the UK, Open Learning has been used in industrial training for at least the last decade. Trainers and Open Learning practitioners have been concerned about the quality of the products and services being delivered. The argument put forward in this thesis is that there is ambiguity amongst industrialists over the meanings of `Open Learning' and `Quality in Open Learning'. For clarity, a new definition of Open Learning is proposed which challenges the traditional learner-centred approach favoured by educationalists. It introduces the concept that there are benefits afforded to the trainer/employer/teacher as well as to the learner. This enables a focussed view of what quality in Open Learning really means. Having discussed these issues, a new quantitative method of evaluating Open Learning is proposed. This is based upon an assessment of the degree of compliance with which products meet Parts 1 & 2 of the Open Learning Code of Practice. The vehicle for these research studies has been a commercial contract commissioned by the Training Agency for the Engineering Industry Training Board (EITB) to examine the quality of Open Learning products supplied to the engineering industry. A major part of this research has been the application of the evaluation technique to a range of 67 Open Learning products (in eight subject areas). The findings were that good quality products can be found right across the price range - so can average and poor quality ones. The study also shows quite convincingly that there are good quality products to be found at less than 50. Finally the majority (24 out of 34) of the good quality products were text based.