Spatial gradients of temperature, accumulation and delta18O-ice in Greenland over a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Air and water stable isotope measurements from four Greenland deep ice cores (GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM) are investigated over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO 8, 9 and 10), which are representative of glacial millennial scale variability. Combined with firn modeling, air isotope data allow us to quantify abrupt temperature increases for each drill site (1σ = 0.6 °C for NEEM, GRIP and GISP2, 1.5 °C for NGRIP). Our data show that the magnitude of stadial–interstadial temperature increase is up to 2 °C larger in central and North Greenland than in northwest Greenland: i.e., for DO 8, a magnitude of +8.8 °C is inferred, which is significantly smaller than the +11.1 °C inferred at GISP2. The same spatial pattern is seen for accumulation increases. This pattern is coherent with climate simulations in response to reduced sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas. The temporal water isotope (δ18O)–temperature relationship varies between 0.3 and 0.6 (±0.08) ‰ °C−1 and is systematically larger at NEEM, possibly due to limited changes in precipitation seasonality compared to GISP2, GRIP or NGRIP. The gas age−ice age difference of warming events represented in water and air isotopes can only be modeled when assuming a 26% (NGRIP) to 40% (GRIP) lower accumulation than that derived from a Dansgaard–Johnsen ice flow model.

CMR imaging predicts death and other adverse events in suspected cardiac sarcoidosis

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to demonstrate that the presence of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) is a predictor of death and other adverse events in patients with suspected cardiac sarcoidosis. BACKGROUND Cardiac sarcoidosis is the most important cause of patient mortality in systemic sarcoidosis, yielding a 5-year mortality rate between 25% and 66% despite immunosuppressive treatment. Other groups have shown that LGE may hold promise in predicting future adverse events in this patient group. METHODS We included 155 consecutive patients with systemic sarcoidosis who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for workup of suspected cardiac sarcoid involvement. The median follow-up time was 2.6 years. Primary endpoints were death, aborted sudden cardiac death, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) discharge. Secondary endpoints were ventricular tachycardia (VT) and nonsustained VT. RESULTS LGE was present in 39 patients (25.5%). The presence of LGE yields a Cox hazard ratio (HR) of 31.6 for death, aborted sudden cardiac death, or appropriate ICD discharge, and of 33.9 for any event. This is superior to functional or clinical parameters such as left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), LV end-diastolic volume, or presentation as heart failure, yielding HRs between 0.99 (per % increase LVEF) and 1.004 (presentation as heart failure), and between 0.94 and 1.2 for potentially lethal or other adverse events, respectively. Except for 1 patient dying from pulmonary infection, no patient without LGE died or experienced any event during follow-up, even if the LV was enlarged and the LVEF severely impaired. CONCLUSIONS Among our population of sarcoid patients with nonspecific symptoms, the presence of myocardial scar indicated by LGE was the best independent predictor of potentially lethal events, as well as other adverse events, yielding a Cox HR of 31.6 and of 33.9, respectively. These data support the necessity for future large, longitudinal follow-up studies to definitely establish LGE as an independent predictor of cardiac death in sarcoidosis, as well as to evaluate the incremental prognostic value of additional parameters.

The Olive Tree, Vol. 10 Number 2, 2002

The Winter 2002 issue of The Olive Tree features articles about library projects, collections, technological innovations, and events at Fogler Library, University of Maine.

Hydrographic Conditions Off Northern Chile During the 1996-1998 La Niña and El Niño Events

The evolution of oceanographic conditions in the upwelling region off northern Chile (18 degrees-24 degrees S) between 1996 and 1998 (including the 1997-1998 El Niño) is presented using hydrographic measurements acquired on quarterly cruises of the Chilean Fisheries Institute, with sea surface temperature (SST), sea level, and wind speeds from Arica (18.5 degrees S), Iquique (20.5 degrees S), and Antofagasta (23.5 degrees S) and a time series of vertical temperature profiles off Iquique. Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature and salinity from May 1996 to March 1997 followed a normal seasonal progression, though conditions were anomalously cool and fresh. Starting in March 1997, positive anomalies in sea level and sea surface temperature propagated along the South American coast to 37 degrees S. Maximum sea level anomalies occurred in two peaks in May-July 1997 and October 1997 to February 1998, separated by a relaxation period. Maximum anomalies (2 degrees C and 0.1 practical salinity units (psu)) extended to 400 m in December 1997 within 50 km of the coast. March 1998 presented the largest surface anomalies (> 4 degrees C and 0.6 psu). Strong poleward flow (20-35 cm s(-1) ) occurred to 400 m or deeper during both sea level maxima and weaker (10 cm s(-1) ) equatorward flow followed each peak. By May 1998, SST had returned to the climatological mean, and flow was equatorward next to the coast. However, offshore salinity remained anomalously high owing to a tongue of subtropical water extending southeast along the Peruvian coast. Conditions off northern Chile returned to normal between August and December 1998. The timing of the anomalies suggests a connection to equatorial waves. The progression of the 1997-1998 El Niño was very similar to that of 1982-1983, though with different timing with respect to seasons.

Strong Southward Transport Events Due to Typhoons in the Taiwan Strait

Transport through the Taiwan Strait under the influence of five typhoons was investigated using both buoy observations and numerical model simulations during the period of 27 August to 5 October 2005. The results show that the effects of typhoons on the Taiwan Strait and its adjacent sea area caused strong southward transport events in the Taiwan Strait, which changed the direction of the Taiwan Strait northward transport temporarily. Typhoon-generated local wind stress and/or along-strait water level gradient were the direct driving factors in these southward transport events. The numerical results show that the Coriolis force made a negative contribution to these events and the contribution of the along-strait momentum gradient was insignificant.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Heart rate is a prognostic risk factor for myocardial infarction: a post hoc analysis in the PERFORM (Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic attack) study population

BACKGROUND Elevated resting heart rate is known to be detrimental to morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease, though its effect in patients with ischemic stroke is unclear. We analyzed the effect of baseline resting heart rate on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with a recent noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event participating in PERFORM. METHODS We compared fatal or nonfatal MI using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models for PERFORM patients with baseline heart rate <70 bpm (n=8178) or ≥70 bpm (n=10,802). In addition, heart rate was analyzed as a continuous variable. Other cerebrovascular and cardiovascular outcomes were also explored. RESULTS Heart rate ≥70 bpm was associated with increased relative risk for fatal or nonfatal MI (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.69, P=0.029). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there was an increase in relative risk for fatal and nonfatal MI (11.3%, P=0.0002). Heart rate ≥70 bpm was also associated with increased relative risk for a composite of fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death) (P<0001); vascular death (P<0001); all-cause mortality (P<0001); and fatal or nonfatal stroke (P=0.04). For every 5-bpm increase in heart rate, there were increases in relative risk for fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal or nonfatal MI, or other vascular death (4.7%, P<0.0001), vascular death (11.0%, P<0.0001), all-cause mortality (8.0%, P<0.0001), and fatal and nonfatal stroke (2.4%, P=0.057). CONCLUSION Elevated heart rate ≥70 bpm places patients with a noncardioembolic cerebral ischemic event at increased risk for MI.

Structure and inferred dynamics of a large grove of Microberlinia bisulcata trees in central African rain forest: the possible role of periods of multiple disturbance events

A 272-ha grove of dominant Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpinioideae) adult trees greater than or equal to 50 cm stem diameter was mapped in its entirety in the southern part of Korup National Park, Cameroon. The approach used an earlier-established 82.5-ha permanent plot with a new surrounding 50-m grid of transect lines. Tree diameters were available from the plot but trees on the grid were recorded as being greater than or equal to 50 cm. The grove consisted of 1028 trees in 2000. Other species occurred within the grove. including the associated subdominants Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis. Microberlinia bisulcata becomes adult at a stein diameter of c. 50 cm and at an estimated age of 50 y. Three oval-shaped subgroves with dimensions c. 8 50 in x 13 50 in (90 ha) were defined. For two of them (within the plot) tree diameters were available. Subgroves differed in their scales and intensities of spatial tree patterns, and in their size frequency distributions, these suggesting differing past dynamics. The modal scale of clumping was 40-50 m. Seed dispersal by pod ejection (to c. 50 in) was evident from the semi-circles of trees at the grove's edge and from the many internal circles (100-200 m diameter). The grove has the capacity. therefore, to increase at c. 100 m per century. To form its present extent and structure. it is inferred that it expanded and infilled from a possibly smaller area of lower adult-tree density. This possibly happened in three waves of recruitment, each one determined by a period of several intense disturbances. Climate records for Africa show that 1740-50 and 1820-30 were periods of drought, and that 1870-1895 was also regionally very dry. Canopy openings allow the light-demanding and fast-growing ectomycorrhizal M. bisulcata to establish, but successive releases are thought to be required to achieve effective recruitment. Nevertheless, in the last 50 y there were no major events and recruitment in the grove was very poor. This present study leads to a new hypothesis of the role of periods of multiple extreme events being the driving factor for the population dynamics of many large African tree species such as M. bisulcata.

Measurement of Top Quark Polarization in Top-Antitop Events from Proton-Proton Collisions at s√=7 TeV Using the ATLAS Detector

his Letter presents measurements of the polarization of the top quark in top-antitop quark pair events, using 4.7  fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at s√=7  TeV. Final states containing one or two isolated leptons (electrons or muons) and jets are considered. Two measurements of αℓP, the product of the leptonic spin-analyzing power and the top quark polarization, are performed assuming that the polarization is introduced by either a CP conserving or a maximally CP violating production process. The measurements obtained, αℓPCPC=−0.035±0.014(stat)±0.037(syst) and αℓPCPV=0.020±0.016(stat)+0.013−0.017(syst), are in good agreement with the standard model prediction of negligible top quark polarization.

A new method to facilitate valid and consistent grading cardiac events in childhood cancer survivors using medical records

BACKGROUND Cardiac events (CEs) are among the most serious late effects following childhood cancer treatment. To establish accurate risk estimates for the occurrence of CEs it is essential that they are graded in a valid and consistent manner, especially for international studies. We therefore developed a data-extraction form and a set of flowcharts to grade CEs and tested the validity and consistency of this approach in a series of patients. METHODS The Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0 and 4.0 were used to define the CEs. Forty patients were randomly selected from a cohort of 72 subjects with known CEs that had been graded by a physician for an earlier study. To establish whether the new method was valid for appropriate grading, a non-physician graded the CEs by using the new method. To evaluate consistency of the grading, the same charts were graded again by two other non-physicians, one with receiving brief introduction and one with receiving extensive training on the new method. We calculated weighted Kappa statistics to quantify inter-observer agreement. RESULTS The inter-observer agreement was 0.92 (95% CI 0.80-1.00) for validity, and 0.88 (0.79-0.98) and 0.99 (0.96-1.00) for consistency with the outcome assessors who had the brief introduction and the extensive training, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The newly developed standardized method to grade CEs using data from medical records has shown excellent validity and consistency. The study showed that the method can be correctly applied by researchers without a medical background, provided that they receive adequate training.

Predictors of adverse events among patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: insights from a pooled analysis of the COMFORTABLE AMI and EXAMINATION trials

Aims: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of adverse events among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing contemporary primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and results: Individual data of 2,655 patients from two primary PCI trials (EXAMINATION, N=1,504; COMFORTABLE AMI, N=1,161) with identical endpoint definitions and event adjudication were pooled. Predictors of all-cause death or any reinfarction and definite stent thrombosis (ST) and target lesion revascularisation (TLR) outcomes at one year were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis. Killip class III or IV was the strongest predictor of all-cause death or any reinfarction (OR 5.11, 95% CI: 2.48-10.52), definite ST (OR 7.74, 95% CI: 2.87-20.93), and TLR (OR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.17-7.06). Impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 4.77, 95% CI: 2.10-10.82), final TIMI flow 0-2 (OR 1.93, 95% CI: 1.05-3.54), arterial hypertension (OR 1.69, 95% CI: 1.11-2.59), age (OR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.41-2.01), and peak CK (OR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.02-1.54) were independent predictors of all-cause death or any reinfarction. Allocation to treatment with DES was an independent predictor of a lower risk of definite ST (OR 0.35, 95% CI: 0.16-0.74) and any TLR (OR 0.34, 95% CI: 0.21-0.54). Conclusions: Killip class remains the strongest predictor of all-cause death or any reinfarction among STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI. DES use independently predicts a lower risk of TLR and definite ST compared with BMS. The COMFORTABLE AMI trial is registered at: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00962416. The EXAMINATION trial is registered at: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00828087.

Neural correlates of a 'pessimistic' attitude when anticipating events of unknown emotional valence

Since we do not know what future holds for us, we prepare for expected emotional events in order to deal with a pleasant or threatening environment. From an evolutionary perspective, it makes sense to be particularly prepared for the worst-case scenario. We were interested to evaluate whether this assumption is reflected in the central nervous information processing associated with expecting visual stimuli of unknown emotional valence. While being scanned with functional magnetic resonance imaging, healthy subjects were cued to expect and then perceive visual stimuli with a known emotional valence as pleasant, unpleasant, and neutral, as well as stimuli of unknown valence that could have been either pleasant or unpleasant. While anticipating pictures of unknown valence, the activity of emotion processing brain areas was similar to activity associated with expecting unpleasant pictures, but there were no areas in which the activity was similar to the activity when expecting pleasant pictures. The activity of the revealed regions, including bilateral insula, right inferior frontal gyrus, medial thalamus, and red nucleus, further correlated with the individual ratings of mood: the worse the mood, the higher the activity. These areas are supposedly involved in a network for internal adaptation and preparation processes in order to act according to potential or certain unpleasant events. Their activity appears to reflect a 'pessimistic' bias by anticipating the events of unknown valence to be unpleasant.