Metodologia para análise da dependabilidade de Smart Grids

Smart Grids are a new trend of electric power distribution, the future of current systems. These networks are continually being introduced in order to improve the reliability of systems, providing alternatives to energy supply and cost savings. Faced with increasing electric power grids complexity, the energy demand and the introduction of alternative sources to energy generation, all components of system require a fully integration in order to achieve high reliability and availability levels (dependability). The systematization of a Smart Grid from the Fault Tree formalism enable the quantitative evaluation of dependability of a specific scenario. In this work, a methodology for dependability evaluation of Smart Grids is proposed. A study of case is described in order to validate the proposal. With the use of this methodology, it is possible to estimate during the early design phase the reliability, availability of Smart Grid beyond to identify the critical points from the failure and repair distributions of components.

Investigation on performance characteristics of dense graded hot mix asphalt with RAP and crumb rubber

The objective of this study was to fundamentally characterize the laboratory performance of traditional hot mix asphalt (HMA) mixtures incorporating high RAP content and waste tire crumb rubber through their fundamental engineering properties. The nominal maximum aggregates size was chosen for this research was 12mm (considering the limitation of aggregate size for surface layer) and both coarse and fine aggregates are commonly used in Italy that were examined and analyzed in this study. On the other hand, the RAP plays an important role in reducing production costs and enhancing the environmentally sustainable pavements instead of using virgin materials in HMA. Particularly, this study has aimed to use 30% of RAP content (25% fine aggregate RAP and 5% coarse aggregate RAP) and 1% of CR additives by the total weight of aggregates for mix design. The mixture of aggregates, RAP and CR were blended with different amount of unmodified binder through dry processes. Generally, the main purposes of this study were investigating on capability of using RAP and CR in dense graded HMA and comparing the performance of rejuvenator in RAP with CR. In addition, based on the engineering analyses during the study, we were able compare the fundamental Indirect Tensile Strength (ITS) value of dense graded HMA and also mechanical characteristics in terms of Indirect Tensile Stiffness Modulus (ITSM). In order to get an extended comparable data, four groups of different mixtures such as conventional mixture with only virgin aggregates (DV), mixture with RAP (DR), mixture with RAP and rejuvenator (DRR), and mixture with RAP, rejuvenator, CR (DRRCr) were investigated in this research experimentally. Finally, the results of those tests indicated that the mixtures with RAP and CR had the high stiffness and less thermal sensitivity, while the mixture with virgin aggregates only had very low values in comparison.

Patterns of dynamic changes in supply management – a triadic approach

Research has followed a network perspective of supply management from as early as the publication of Krajlic matrix. This portfolio approach is still static. Recently the triad is interpreted as the smallest unit of a network through which dynamics can be studied. Analyzing triads seems to be a promising way through which a deeper insight into the dynamics of supplier development can be gained. Using case study approach the paper investigates this dynamics with a special emphasis on coopetitive behavior. Analyzing a triadic sourcing setting operating in a make to engineer (and order) environment we show the importance of governance.

Work-life Balance and Gender Regime After the Economic Transition

Work-life balance (WLB) is a key issue in our societies in which there is increasing pressure to be permanently available on demand and to work more intensively, and when due to technological change the borders between work and private life appear to be dissolving. However, the social, institutional and normative frames of a region have a huge impact on how people experience work and private life, where the borders between these spheres lie and how much control individuals have in managing these borders. Based on these arguments, this editorial to the special issue Work-life balance/imbalance: individual, organisational and social experiences in Intersections. EEJSP draws attention to the social institutions, frameworks and norms which have an effect on experience, practices and expectations about work-life balance. Concerning the time horizon, this editorial focuses on the change of regime as a reference point since socialist and post-socialist eras differ significantly, although there is still some continuity between them. The authors of this introduction offer an overview of the situation in CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) based mainly on examples of Visegrad countries.

The use of modelling in purchasing/supply management research

The purpose of this research to explore the use of modelling in the field of Purchasing and Supply Management (P/SM). We are particularly interested in identifying the specific areas of P/SM where there are opportunities for the use of modelling based methods. The paper starts with an overview of main types of modelling and also provides a categorisation of the main P/SM research themes. Our research shows that there are many opportunities for using descriptive, predictive and prescriptive modelling approaches in all areas of P/SM research from the ones with a focus on the actual function from a purely operational and execution perspective (e.g. purchasing processes and behaviour) to the ones with a focus on the organisational level from a more strategic perspective (e.g. strategy and policy). We conclude that future P/SM research needs to explore the value of modelling not just at the functional or operational level, but also at the organisation and strategic level respectively. We also acknowledge that while using empirical results to inform and improve models has advantages, there are also drawbacks, which relate to the value, the practical relevance and the generalisability of the modelling based approaches.

Three Essays on the Effects of Donor Supplied Contraceptives on Fertility, Usage, and Attitudes

After the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning, there have been major strides in advancing the family planning agenda for low and middle-income countries worldwide. Much of the existing infrastructure and funding for family planning access is in the form of supplying free contraceptives to countries. While the average yearly value of donations since 2000 was over 170 million dollars for contraceptives procured for developing countries, an ongoing debate in the empirical literature is whether increases in contraceptive access and supply drive declines in fertility (UNFPA 2014).

This dissertation explores the fertility and behavioral effects of an increase in contraceptive supply donated to Zambia. Zambia, a high-fertility developing country, receives over 80 percent of its contraceptives from multilateral donors and aid agencies. Most contraceptives are donated and provided to women for free at government clinics (DELIVER 2015). I chose Zambia as a case study to measure the relationship between contraceptive supply and fertility because of two donor-driven events that led to an increase in both the quantity and frequency of contraceptives starting in 2008 (UNFPA 2014). Donations increased because donors and the Zambian government started a systematic method of forecasting contraceptive need on December 2007, and the Mexico City Policy was lifted in January 2009.

In Chapter 1, I investigate whether a large change in quantity and frequency of donated contraceptives affected fertility, using available data on contraceptive donations to Zambia, and birth records from the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys. I use a difference-in-difference framework to estimate the fertility effects of a supply chain improvement program that started in 2011, and was designed to ensure more regularity of contraceptive supply. The increase in total contraceptive supply after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded is associated with a 12 percent reduction in fertility relative to the before period, after controlling for demographic characteristics and time controls. There is evidence that a supply chain improvement program led to significant fertility declines for regions that received the program after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded.

In Chapter 2, I explore the effects of the large increase in donated contraceptives on modern contraceptive uptake. According to the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys, there was a dramatic increase in current use of injectables, implants, and IUDs. Simultaneously, declines occurred in usage of condoms, lactational amenorrhea method (LAM), and traditional methods. In this chapter, I estimate the effect of the increase in donations on uptake, composition of contraceptive usage, and usage of methods based on distance to contraceptive access points. The results show the post-2007 period is associated with an increase in usage of injectables and the pill among women living further away from access points.

In Chapter 3, I explore attitudes towards the contraceptive supply system, and identify areas for improvement, based on qualitative interviews with 14 experts and 61 Zambian users and non-users of contraceptives. The interviews uncover systemic barriers that prevent women from consistently accessing methods, and individual barriers that exacerbate the deficiencies in supply chain procedures. I find that 39 out of 61 women interviewed, both users and non-users, had personal experiences with stock out. The qualitative results suggest that the increase in contraceptives brought to the country after 2007 may have not contributed to as large of a decline in fertility because of bottlenecks in the supply chain, and problems in maintaining stock levels at clinics. I end the chapter with a series of four recommendations for improvements in the supply chain going forward, in light of recent commitments by the Zambian government during the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning.

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Adaptación del sector turístico al cambio climático en España. La importancia de las acciones a escala local y en empresas turísticas

El 5º Informe del IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático, 2014) señala que el turismo será una de las actividades económicas que mayores efectos negativos experimentará en las próximas décadas debido al calentamiento térmico del planeta. En España, el turismo es una fuente principal de ingresos y de creación de puestos de trabajo en su economía. De ahí que sea necesaria la puesta en marcha de medidas de adaptación a la nueva realidad climática que, en nuestro país, va a suponer cambios en el confort climático de los destinos e incremento de extremos atmosféricos. Frente a los planes de adaptación al cambio climático en la actividad turística, elaborados por los gobiernos estatal y regional, que apenas se han desarrollado en España, la escala local muestra interesantes ejemplos de acciones de adaptación al cambio climático, desarrolladas tanto por los municipios (energía, transporte, vivienda, planificación urbanística) como por la propia empresa turística (hoteles, campings, apartamentos). Medidas de ahorro de agua y luz, fomento del transporte público y de las energías limpias, creación de zonas verdes urbanas y adaptación a los extremos atmosféricos destacan como acciones de mitigación del cambio climático en los destinos turísticos principales de nuestro país.

D6.6 – Summary, Analysis, Road-mapping and Production of Training materials

This deliverable summarizes, validates and explains the purpose and concept behind the RAGE knowledge and innovation management platform as a self-sustainable Ecosystem, supporting innovation processes in the Applied Gaming (AG) industry. The Ecosystem portal will be developed with particular consideration of the demand and requirements of small and medium sized game developing companies, education providers and related stakeholders like AG researchers and AG end-users. The innovation potential of the new platform underlies the following factors: a huge, mostly entire collection of community specific knowledge (e.g., content like media objects, software components and best practices), a structured approach of knowledge access, search and browse, collaboration tools as well as social network analysis tools to foster efficient knowledge creation and transformation processes into marketable technology assets. The deliverable provides an overview of the current status and the remaining work to come, preceding the final version in month 48 of the RAGE project.

Managing Rentals with Usage-Based Loss

Motivated by new and innovative rental business models, this paper develops a novel discrete-time model of a rental operation with random loss of inventory due to customer use. The inventory level is chosen before the start of a finite rental season, and customers not immediately served are lost. Our analysis framework uses stochastic comparisons of sample paths to derive structural results that hold under good generality for demands, rental durations, and rental unit lifetimes. Considering different \recirculation" rules | i.e., which rental unit to choose to meet each demand | we prove the concavity of the expected profit function and identify the optimal recirculation rule. A numerical study clarifies when considering rental unit loss and recirculation rules matters most for the inventory decision: Accounting for rental unit loss can increase the expected profit by 7% for a single season and becomes even more important as the time horizon lengthens. We also observe that the optimal inventory level in response to increasing loss probability is non-monotonic. Finally, we show that choosing the optimal recirculation rule over another simple policy allows more rental units to be profitably added, and the profit-maximizing service level increases by up to 6 percentage points.

Essays on Omnichannel Sale

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Supply Chain Adaptation of Finnish Companies in Chinese Institutional Environment

Within the last few decades of operations and supply chain management, the field has seen the rise of so called best practices, methods that will help supply chains obtain their business goals and gain a competitive edge. These methods were thought to be universal. This however is not always the case, as the surrounding business environment could have a significant impact on what will be effective in gaining competitive edge. Contingency theory states that the success of a supply chain is determined by both internal capabilities, as well as external context aligning. This creates a strategic fit, which is a major determinant of success. In order for supply chains to reach this strategic fit, they must adapt. As China has seen rapid growth and over the last few decades become one of the major economies of the world, Western companies have tried to establish themselves there, only to find that the Chinese market is extremely difficult to operate in. The aim of this thesis was to investigate from contingency theory perspective, what are the institutional factors that affect supply chain management of Finnish companies operating in China, and how do Finnish companies adapt their supply chains to better fit the Chinese institutional environment. A theoretical model was created for this thesis, in which supply chains possess resources, which can be combined in a meaningful manner to create capabilities. Both resources and capabilities are affected by the surrounding institutional environment, which forces supply chains to adapt in order to find a better strategic fit. A total of six Finnish managers from three large and three small companies operating in China were interviewed. The results indicated that the Chinese business environment is significantly different, than that of Finland or Western countries in general. Three institutional factors were identified: Confucian though, fast-paced business environment, and managing labor force. These three institutional factors made the relationship and delivery capabilities particularly important, as well as human resources, reputation, physical resources and technological resources. In conclusion, it was discovered that the Chinese institutional environment is heavily affected by Confucian thought, as well as the rapid market growth. These are the two most important institutional factors that shape the Chinese market. If supply chains wish to be successful in China, adaptation regarding these two institutional factors should yield good results.

Early stage memory loss interventions: utilization, impact, and the experience of living alone.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08