Las decisiones de proyecto y los costes de construcción en la vivienda rural, aplicado al estudio de la vivienda autopromovida en la provincia de Cáceres

En la coyuntura actual, en la que existe por un lado, exceso en la oferta de vivienda (de alto precio o de segunda residencia), y aparece por otro demanda de vivienda (de bajo precio y/o social), el mercado inmobiliario se encuentra paradójicamente bloqueado. Así, surge esta investigación como fruto de este momento histórico, en el cual se somete a debate económico el producto vivienda, no solo como consecuencia de la profunda crisis económica, sino también para la correcta gestión de los recursos desde el punto de vista de lo eficiente y sostenible. Se parte de la hipótesis de que es necesario determinar un estimador de costes de construcción de vivienda autopromovida como una de las soluciones a la habitación en el medio rural de Extremadura, para lo cual se ha tomado como modelo de análisis concretamente la Vivienda Autopromovida subvencionada por la Junta de Extremadura en el marco de la provincia de Cáceres. Con esta investigación se pretende establecer una herramienta matemática precisa que permita determinar la inversión a los promotores, el posible margen de beneficios a los contratistas y el valor real de la garantía en el préstamo a las entidades financieras. Pero el objetivo de mayor proyección social de esta investigación consiste en facilitar una herramienta sencilla a la Junta de Extremadura para que pueda establecer las ayudas de una manera proporcional. De este modo se ayuda a optimizar los recursos, lo cual en época de crisis resulta aun más acuciante, ya que conociendo previamente y con bastante exactitud el importe de las obras se pueden dirigir las ayudas de forma proporcional a las necesidades reales de la ejecución. De hecho, ciertas características difíciles de cuantificar para determinar las ayudas en materia de vivienda, como la influencia del número de miembros familiares o la atención a la discapacidad, se verían contempladas de forma indirecta en el coste estimado con el método aquí propuesto, ya que suponen siempre un aumento de las superficies construidas y útiles, de los huecos de fachadas o del tamaño de locales húmedos y por tanto se contemplan en la ecuación del modelo determinado. Por último, contar con un estimador de costes potencia la forma de asentamiento de la construcción mediante autopromocion de viviendas ya que ayuda a la toma de decisiones al particular, subvencionado o no. En efecto, la herramienta es valida en cierta medida para cualquier autopromocion, constituye un sistema de construcción con las menores posibilidades especulativas y lo más sostenible, es abundante en toda Extremadura, y consigue que el sector de la construcción sea un sistema más eficiente al optimizar su proceso económico de producción. SUMMARY Under the present circumstances, in which there is, on one hand, an excess in the supply of housing (high-price or second-home), and on the other hand a demand for housing (low cost and/or social), paradoxically the property market is at a standstill. This research has come about as a result of this moment in time, in which the product: housing, is undergoing economic debate, not only on account of this serious economic crisis, but for the proper management of resources from the point of view of efficiency and sustainability. A building-costs estimator for owner-developed housing is deemed necessary as one of the solutions for the rural environment that is Extremadura. To this end, it is the Owner-Developed House which has been taken as analysis model. It is subsidized by the Extremadura Regional Government in Caceres Province. This research establishes an accurate mathematical tool to work out the developers’ investment, the builder’s potential profit margin and the reality of the loan for the Financial Institution. But the result of most social relevance in this research is to provide the Extremadura Regional Government with a simple tool, so that it can draw up the Subventions proportionally. Thus, the resources are optimized, an even more vital matter in times of economic slump, due to the fact that if the cost of the building works is known with some accuracy beforehand, the subventions can be allocated in a way that is proportional to the real needs of execution. In fact certain elements related to housing subventions which are hard to quantify, such as the influence of number of family members or disability support, would be covered indirectly in cost estimate with the proposed method, since they inevitably involve an increase in built area, exterior wall openings and the size of plumbed rooms. As such they are covered in the determined model equation. Lastly, the availability of a cost-estimator reinforces the ownerdeveloped building model, since it assists decision-making by the individual, whether subsidized or not. This is because the tool is valid to some extent in any owner-development, and this building scheme, which is common in Extremadura, is the most sustainable, and the least liable to speculation. It makes the building sector more efficient by optimizing the economic production process.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator pˆ , its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters a and b for pˆ

p , respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as p→0, and which guarantee that, for any p∈(0,1), the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, r, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown p. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when a/b does not deviate too much from 1, and asymptotically minimax as r→∞ when a=b.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

Estrategias de monitorización de CO2 y otros gases en los estudios de análogos naturales

La Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) y la Università degli Studi di Firenze (UniFi), bajo la coordinación técnica de AMPHOS21, participan desde 2009 en el proyecto de investigación “Estrategias de Monitorización de CO2 y otros gases en el estudio de Análogos Naturales”, financiado por la Fundación Ciudad de la Energía (CIUDEN) en el marco del Proyecto Compostilla OXYCFB300 (http://www.compostillaproject.eu), del Programa “European Energy Program for Recovery - EEPR”. El objetivo principal del proyecto fue el desarrollo y puesta a punto de metodologías de monitorización superficiales para su aplicación en el seguimiento y control de los emplazamientos donde se realice el almacenamiento geológico de CO2, analizando técnicas que permitan detectar y cuantificar las posibles fugas de CO2 a la atmósfera. Los trabajos se realizaron tanto en análogos naturales (españoles e italianos) como en la Planta de Desarrollo Tecnológico de Almacenamiento de CO2 de Hontomín. Las técnicas analizadas se centran en la medición de gases y aguas superficiales (de escorrentía y manantiales). En cuanto a la medición de gases se analizó el flujo de CO2 que emana desde el suelo a la atmósfera y la aplicabilidad de trazadores naturales (como el radón) para la detección e identificación de las fugas de CO2. En cuanto al análisis químico de las aguas se analizaron los datos geoquímicos e isotópicos y los gases disueltos en las aguas de los alrededores de la PDT de Hontomín, con objeto de determinar qué parámetros son los más apropiados para la detección de una posible migración del CO2 inyectado, o de la salmuera, a los ambientes superficiales. Las medidas de flujo de CO2 se realizaron con la técnica de la cámara de acúmulo. A pesar de ser una técnica desarrollada y aplicada en diferentes ámbitos científicos se estimó necesario adaptar un protocolo de medida y de análisis de datos a las características específicas de los proyectos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2 (CAC). Donde los flujos de CO2 esperados son bajos y en caso de producirse una fuga habrá que detectar pequeñas variaciones en los valores flujo con un “ruido” en la señal alto, debido a actividad biológica en el suelo. La medida de flujo de CO2 mediante la técnica de la cámara de acúmulo se puede realizar sin limpiar la superficie donde se coloca la cámara o limpiando y esperando al reequilibrio del flujo después de la distorsión al sistema. Sin embargo, los resultados obtenidos después de limpiar y esperar muestran menor dispersión, lo que nos indica que este procedimiento es el mejor para la monitorización de los complejos de almacenamiento geológico de CO2. El protocolo de medida resultante, utilizado para la obtención de la línea base de flujo de CO2 en Hontomín, sigue los siguiente pasos: a) con una espátula se prepara el punto de medición limpiando y retirando el recubrimiento vegetal o la primera capa compacta de suelo, b) se espera un tiempo para la realización de la medida de flujo, facilitando el reequilibrio del flujo del gas tras la alteración provocada en el suelo y c) se realiza la medida de flujo de CO2. Una vez realizada la medición de flujo de CO2, y detectada si existen zonas de anomalías, se debe estimar la cantidad de CO2 que se está escapando a la atmósfera (emanación total), con el objetivo de cuantificar la posible fuga. Existen un amplio rango de metodologías para realizar dicha estimación, siendo necesario entender cuáles son las más apropiadas para obtener el valor más representativo del sistema. En esta tesis se comparan seis técnicas estadísticas: media aritmética, estimador insegado de la media (aplicando la función de Sichel), remuestreo con reemplazamiento (bootstrap), separación en diferentes poblaciones mediante métodos gráficos y métodos basados en criterios de máxima verosimilitud, y la simulación Gaussiana secuencial. Para este análisis se realizaron ocho campañas de muestreo, tanto en la Planta de Desarrollo Tecnológico de Hontomón como en análogos naturales (italianos y españoles). Los resultados muestran que la simulación Gaussiana secuencial suele ser el método más preciso para realizar el cálculo, sin embargo, existen ocasiones donde otros métodos son más apropiados. Como consecuencia, se desarrolla un procedimiento de actuación para seleccionar el método que proporcione el mejor estimador. Este procedimiento consiste, en primer lugar, en realizar un análisis variográfico. Si existe una autocorrelación entre los datos, modelizada mediante el variograma, la mejor técnica para calcular la emanación total y su intervalo de confianza es la simulación Gaussiana secuencial (sGs). Si los datos son independientes se debe comprobar la distribución muestral, aplicando la media aritmética o el estimador insesgado de la media (Sichel) para datos normales o lognormales respectivamente. Cuando los datos no son normales o corresponden a una mezcla de poblaciones la mejor técnica de estimación es la de remuestreo con reemplazamiento (bootstrap). Siguiendo este procedimiento el máximo valor del intervalo de confianza estuvo en el orden del ±20/25%, con la mayoría de valores comprendidos entre ±3,5% y ±8%. La identificación de las diferentes poblaciones muestrales en los datos de flujo de CO2 puede ayudar a interpretar los resultados obtenidos, toda vez que esta distribución se ve afectada por la presencia de varios procesos geoquímicos como, por ejemplo, una fuente geológica o biológica del CO2. Así pues, este análisis puede ser una herramienta útil en el programa de monitorización, donde el principal objetivo es demostrar que no hay fugas desde el reservorio a la atmósfera y, si ocurren, detectarlas y cuantificarlas. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el mejor proceso para realizar la separación de poblaciones está basado en criterios de máxima verosimilitud. Los procedimientos gráficos, aunque existen pautas para realizarlos, tienen un cierto grado de subjetividad en la interpretación de manera que los resultados son menos reproducibles. Durante el desarrollo de la tesis se analizó, en análogos naturales, la relación existente entre el CO2 y los isótopos del radón (222Rn y 220Rn), detectándose en todas las zonas de emisión de CO2 una relación positiva entre los valores de concentración de 222Rn en aire del suelo y el flujo de CO2. Comparando la concentración de 220Rn con el flujo de CO2 la relación no es tan clara, mientras que en algunos casos aumenta en otros se detecta una disminución, hecho que parece estar relacionado con la profundidad de origen del radón. Estos resultados confirmarían la posible aplicación de los isótopos del radón como trazadores del origen de los gases y su aplicación en la detección de fugas. Con respecto a la determinación de la línea base de flujo CO2 en la PDT de Hontomín, se realizaron mediciones con la cámara de acúmulo en las proximidades de los sondeos petrolíferos, perforados en los ochenta y denominados H-1, H-2, H-3 y H-4, en la zona donde se instalarán el sondeo de inyección (H-I) y el de monitorización (H-A) y en las proximidades de la falla sur. Desde noviembre de 2009 a abril de 2011 se realizaron siete campañas de muestreo, adquiriéndose más de 4.000 registros de flujo de CO2 con los que se determinó la línea base y su variación estacional. Los valores obtenidos fueron bajos (valores medios entre 5 y 13 g•m-2•d-1), detectándose pocos valores anómalos, principalmente en las proximidades del sondeo H-2. Sin embargo, estos valores no se pudieron asociar a una fuente profunda del CO2 y seguramente estuvieran más relacionados con procesos biológicos, como la respiración del suelo. No se detectaron valores anómalos cerca del sistema de fracturación (falla Ubierna), toda vez que en esta zona los valores de flujo son tan bajos como en el resto de puntos de muestreo. En este sentido, los valores de flujo de CO2 aparentemente están controlados por la actividad biológica, corroborado al obtenerse los menores valores durante los meses de otoño-invierno e ir aumentando en los periodos cálidos. Se calcularon dos grupos de valores de referencia, el primer grupo (UCL50) es 5 g•m-2•d-1 en las zonas no aradas en los meses de otoño-invierno y 3,5 y 12 g•m-2•d-1 en primavera-verano para zonas aradas y no aradas, respectivamente. El segundo grupo (UCL99) corresponde a 26 g•m-2•d- 1 durante los meses de otoño-invierno en las zonas no aradas y 34 y 42 g•m-2•d-1 para los meses de primavera-verano en zonas aradas y no aradas, respectivamente. Flujos mayores a estos valores de referencia podrían ser indicativos de una posible fuga durante la inyección y posterior a la misma. Los primeros datos geoquímicos e isotópicos de las aguas superficiales (de escorrentía y de manantiales) en el área de Hontomín–Huermeces fueron analizados. Los datos sugieren que las aguas estudiadas están relacionadas con aguas meteóricas con un circuito hidrogeológico superficial, caracterizadas por valores de TDS relativamente bajos (menor a 800 mg/L) y una fácie hidrogeoquímica de Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3 −. Algunas aguas de manantiales se caracterizan por concentraciones elevadas de NO3 − (concentraciones de hasta 123 mg/l), lo que sugiere una contaminación antropogénica. Se obtuvieron concentraciones anómalas de of Cl−, SO4 2−, As, B y Ba en dos manantiales cercanos a los sondeos petrolíferos y en el rio Ubierna, estos componentes son probablemente indicadores de una posible mezcla entre los acuíferos profundos y superficiales. El estudio de los gases disueltos en las aguas también evidencia el circuito superficial de las aguas. Estando, por lo general, dominado por la componente atmosférica (N2, O2 y Ar). Sin embargo, en algunos casos el gas predominante fue el CO2 (con concentraciones que llegan al 63% v/v), aunque los valores isotópicos del carbono (<-17,7 ‰) muestran que lo más probable es que esté relacionado con un origen biológico. Los datos geoquímicos e isotópicos de las aguas superficiales obtenidos en la zona de Hontomín se pueden considerar como el valor de fondo con el que comparar durante la fase operacional, la clausura y posterior a la clausura. En este sentido, la composición de los elementos mayoritarios y traza, la composición isotópica del carbono del CO2 disuelto y del TDIC (Carbono inorgánico disuelto) y algunos elementos traza se pueden considerar como parámetros adecuados para detectar la migración del CO2 a los ambientes superficiales. ABSTRACT Since 2009, a group made up of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM; Spain) and Università degli Studi Firenze (UniFi; Italy) has been taking part in a joint project called “Strategies for Monitoring CO2 and other Gases in Natural analogues”. The group was coordinated by AMPHOS XXI, a private company established in Barcelona. The Project was financially supported by Fundación Ciudad de la Energía (CIUDEN; Spain) as a part of the EC-funded OXYCFB300 project (European Energy Program for Recovery -EEPR-; www.compostillaproject.eu). The main objectives of the project were aimed to develop and optimize analytical methodologies to be applied at the surface to Monitor and Verify the feasibility of geologically stored carbon dioxide. These techniques were oriented to detect and quantify possible CO2 leakages to the atmosphere. Several investigations were made in natural analogues from Spain and Italy and in the Tecnchnological Development Plant for CO2 injection al Hontomín (Burgos, Spain). The studying techniques were mainly focused on the measurements of diffuse soil gases and surface and shallow waters. The soil-gas measurements included the determination of CO2 flux and the application to natural trace gases (e.g. radon) that may help to detect any CO2 leakage. As far as the water chemistry is concerned, geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of the PDT of Hontomín were analyzed to determine the most suitable parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into the near-surface environments. The accumulation chamber method was used to measure the diffuse emission of CO2 at the soil-atmosphere interface. Although this technique has widely been applied in different scientific areas, it was considered of the utmost importance to adapt the optimum methodology for measuring the CO2 soil flux and estimating the total CO2 output to the specific features of the site where CO2 is to be stored shortly. During the pre-injection phase CO2 fluxes are expected to be relatively low where in the intra- and post-injection phases, if leakages are to be occurring, small variation in CO2 flux might be detected when the CO2 “noise” is overcoming the biological activity of the soil (soil respiration). CO2 flux measurements by the accumulation chamber method could be performed without vegetation clearance or after vegetation clearance. However, the results obtained after clearance show less dispersion and this suggests that this procedure appears to be more suitable for monitoring CO2 Storage sites. The measurement protocol, applied for the determination of the CO2 flux baseline at Hontomín, has included the following steps: a) cleaning and removal of both the vegetal cover and top 2 cm of soil, b) waiting to reduce flux perturbation due to the soil removal and c) measuring the CO2 flux. Once completing the CO2 flux measurements and detected whether there were anomalies zones, the total CO2 output was estimated to quantify the amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere in each of the studied areas. There is a wide range of methodologies for the estimation of the CO2 output, which were applied to understand which one was the most representative. In this study six statistical methods are presented: arithmetic mean, minimum variances unbiased estimator, bootstrap resample, partitioning of data into different populations with a graphical and a maximum likelihood procedures, and sequential Gaussian simulation. Eight campaigns were carried out in the Hontomín CO2 Storage Technology Development Plant and in natural CO2 analogues. The results show that sequential Gaussian simulation is the most accurate method to estimate the total CO2 output and the confidential interval. Nevertheless, a variety of statistic methods were also used. As a consequence, an application procedure for selecting the most realistic method was developed. The first step to estimate the total emanation rate was the variogram analysis. If the relation among the data can be explained with the variogram, the best technique to calculate the total CO2 output and its confidence interval is the sequential Gaussian simulation method (sGs). If the data are independent, their distribution is to be analyzed. For normal and log-normal distribution the proper methods are the arithmetic mean and minimum variances unbiased estimator, respectively. If the data are not normal (log-normal) or are a mixture of different populations the best approach is the bootstrap resampling. According to these steps, the maximum confidence interval was about ±20/25%, with most of values between ±3.5% and ±8%. Partitioning of CO2 flux data into different populations may help to interpret the data as their distribution can be affected by different geochemical processes, e.g. geological or biological sources of CO2. Consequently, it may be an important tool in a monitoring CCS program, where the main goal is to demonstrate that there are not leakages from the reservoir to the atmosphere and, if occurring, to be able to detect and quantify it. Results show that the partitioning of populations is better performed by maximum likelihood criteria, since graphical procedures have a degree of subjectivity in the interpretation and results may not be reproducible. The relationship between CO2 flux and radon isotopes (222Rn and 220Rn) was studied in natural analogues. In all emissions zones, a positive relation between 222Rn and CO2 was observed. However, the relationship between activity of 220Rn and CO2 flux is not clear. In some cases the 220Rn activity indeed increased with the CO2 flux in other measurements a decrease was recognized. We can speculate that this effect was possibly related to the route (deep or shallow) of the radon source. These results may confirm the possible use of the radon isotopes as tracers for the gas origin and their application in the detection of leakages. With respect to the CO2 flux baseline at the TDP of Hontomín, soil flux measurements in the vicinity of oil boreholes, drilled in the eighties and named H-1 to H-4, and injection and monitoring wells were performed using an accumulation chamber. Seven surveys were carried out from November 2009 to summer 2011. More than 4,000 measurements were used to determine the baseline flux of CO2 and its seasonal variations. The measured values were relatively low (from 5 to 13 g•m-2•day-1) and few outliers were identified, mainly located close to the H-2 oil well. Nevertheless, these values cannot be associated to a deep source of CO2, being more likely related to biological processes, i.e. soil respiration. No anomalies were recognized close to the deep fault system (Ubierna Fault) detected by geophysical investigations. There, the CO2 flux is indeed as low as other measurement stations. CO2 fluxes appear to be controlled by the biological activity since the lowest values were recorded during autumn-winter seasons and they tend to increase in warm periods. Two reference CO2 flux values (UCL50 of 5 g•m-2•d-1 for non-ploughed areas in autumn-winter seasons and 3.5 and 12 g•m-2•d-1 for in ploughed and non-ploughed areas, respectively, in spring-summer time, and UCL99 of 26 g•m-2•d-1 for autumn-winter in not-ploughed areas and 34 and 42 g•m-2•d-1 for spring-summer in ploughed and not-ploughed areas, respectively, were calculated. Fluxes higher than these reference values could be indicative of possible leakage during the operational and post-closure stages of the storage project. The first geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of Hontomín–Huermeces (Burgos, Spain) are presented and discussed. The chemical and features of the spring waters suggest that they are related to a shallow hydrogeological system as the concentration of the Total Dissolved Solids approaches 800 mg/L with a Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3 − composition, similar to that of the surface waters. Some spring waters are characterized by relatively high concentrations of NO3 − (up to 123 mg/L), unequivocally suggesting an anthropogenic source. Anomalous concentrations of Cl−, SO4 2−, As, B and Ba were measured in two springs, discharging a few hundred meters from the oil wells, and in the Rio Ubierna. These contents are possibly indicative of mixing processes between deep and shallow aquifers. The chemistry of the dissolved gases also evidences the shallow circuits of the Hontomín– Huermeces, mainly characterized by an atmospheric source as highlighted by the contents of N2, O2, Ar and their relative ratios. Nevertheless, significant concentrations (up to 63% by vol.) of isotopically negative CO2 (<−17.7‰ V-PDB) were found in some water samples, likely related to a biogenic source. The geochemical and isotopic data of the surface and spring waters in the surroundings of Hontomín can be considered as background values when intra- and post-injection monitoring programs will be carried out. In this respect, main and minor solutes, the isotopic carbon of dissolved CO2 and TDIC (Total Dissolved Inorganic Carbon) and selected trace elements can be considered as useful parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into near-surface environments.

Analysis of pixel-mapping rounding on geometric distortion as a prediction for view synthesis distortion

We analyze the performance of the geometric distortion, incurred when coding depth maps in 3D Video, as an estimator of the distortion of synthesized views. Our analysis is motivated by the need of reducing the computational complexity required for the computation of synthesis distortion in 3D video encoders. We propose several geometric distortion models that capture (i) the geometric distortion caused by the depth coding error, and (ii) the pixel-mapping precision in view synthesis. Our analysis starts with the evaluation of the correlation of geometric distortion values obtained with these models and the actual distortion on synthesized views. Then, the different geometric distortion models are employed in the rate-distortion optimization cycle of depth map coding, in order to assess the results obtained by the correlation analysis. Results show that one of the geometric distortion models is performing consistently better than the other models in all tests. Therefore, it can be used as a reasonable estimator of the synthesis distortion in low complexity depth encoders.

Automatic expert system based on images for accuracy crop row detection in maize fields

This paper proposes an automatic expert system for accuracy crop row detection in maize fields based on images acquired from a vision system. Different applications in maize, particularly those based on site specific treatments, require the identification of the crop rows. The vision system is designed with a defined geometry and installed onboard a mobile agricultural vehicle, i.e. submitted to vibrations, gyros or uncontrolled movements. Crop rows can be estimated by applying geometrical parameters under image perspective projection. Because of the above undesired effects, most often, the estimation results inaccurate as compared to the real crop rows. The proposed expert system exploits the human knowledge which is mapped into two modules based on image processing techniques. The first one is intended for separating green plants (crops and weeds) from the rest (soil, stones and others). The second one is based on the system geometry where the expected crop lines are mapped onto the image and then a correction is applied through the well-tested and robust Theil–Sen estimator in order to adjust them to the real ones. Its performance is favorably compared against the classical Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient.

Energy Management and Optimization for Video Decoders based on Functional-oriented Reconfiguration

In recent years, the increasing sophistication of embedded multimedia systems and wireless communication technologies has promoted a widespread utilization of video streaming applications. It has been reported in 2013 that youngsters, aged between 13 and 24, spend around 16.7 hours a week watching online video through social media, business websites, and video streaming sites. Video applications have already been blended into people daily life. Traditionally, video streaming research has focused on performance improvement, namely throughput increase and response time reduction. However, most mobile devices are battery-powered, a technology that grows at a much slower pace than either multimedia or hardware developments. Since battery developments cannot satisfy expanding power demand of mobile devices, research interests on video applications technology has attracted more attention to achieve energy-efficient designs. How to efficiently use the limited battery energy budget becomes a major research challenge. In addition, next generation video standards impel to diversification and personalization. Therefore, it is desirable to have mechanisms to implement energy optimizations with greater flexibility and scalability. In this context, the main goal of this dissertation is to find an energy management and optimization mechanism to reduce the energy consumption of video decoders based on the idea of functional-oriented reconfiguration. System battery life is prolonged as the result of a trade-off between energy consumption and video quality. Functional-oriented reconfiguration takes advantage of the similarities among standards to build video decoders reconnecting existing functional units. If a feedback channel from the decoder to the encoder is available, the former can signal the latter changes in either the encoding parameters or the encoding algorithms for energy-saving adaption. The proposed energy optimization and management mechanism is carried out at the decoder end. This mechanism consists of an energy-aware manager, implemented as an additional block of the reconfiguration engine, an energy estimator, integrated into the decoder, and, if available, a feedback channel connected to the encoder end. The energy-aware manager checks the battery level, selects the new decoder description and signals to build a new decoder to the reconfiguration engine. It is worth noting that the analysis of the energy consumption is fundamental for the success of the energy management and optimization mechanism. In this thesis, an energy estimation method driven by platform event monitoring is proposed. In addition, an event filter is suggested to automate the selection of the most appropriate events that affect the energy consumption. At last, a detailed study on the influence of the training data on the model accuracy is presented. The modeling methodology of the energy estimator has been evaluated on different underlying platforms, single-core and multi-core, with different characteristics of workload. All the results show a good accuracy and low on-line computation overhead. The required modifications on the reconfiguration engine to implement the energy-aware manager have been assessed under different scenarios. The results indicate a possibility to lengthen the battery lifetime of the system in two different use-cases.

Diseño de algoritmos de guerra electrónica y radar para su implementación en sistemas de tiempo real

Esta tesis se centra en el estudio y desarrollo de algoritmos de guerra electrónica {electronic warfare, EW) y radar para su implementación en sistemas de tiempo real. La llegada de los sistemas de radio, radar y navegación al terreno militar llevó al desarrollo de tecnologías para combatirlos. Así, el objetivo de los sistemas de guerra electrónica es el control del espectro electomagnético. Una de la funciones de la guerra electrónica es la inteligencia de señales {signals intelligence, SIGINT), cuya labor es detectar, almacenar, analizar, clasificar y localizar la procedencia de todo tipo de señales presentes en el espectro. El subsistema de inteligencia de señales dedicado a las señales radar es la inteligencia electrónica {electronic intelligence, ELINT). Un sistema de tiempo real es aquel cuyo factor de mérito depende tanto del resultado proporcionado como del tiempo en que se da dicho resultado. Los sistemas radar y de guerra electrónica tienen que proporcionar información lo más rápido posible y de forma continua, por lo que pueden encuadrarse dentro de los sistemas de tiempo real. La introducción de restricciones de tiempo real implica un proceso de realimentación entre el diseño del algoritmo y su implementación en plataformas “hardware”. Las restricciones de tiempo real son dos: latencia y área de la implementación. En esta tesis, todos los algoritmos presentados se han implementado en plataformas del tipo field programmable gate array (FPGA), ya que presentan un buen compromiso entre velocidad, coste total, consumo y reconfigurabilidad. La primera parte de la tesis está centrada en el estudio de diferentes subsistemas de un equipo ELINT: detección de señales mediante un detector canalizado, extracción de los parámetros de pulsos radar, clasificación de modulaciones y localization pasiva. La transformada discreta de Fourier {discrete Fourier transform, DFT) es un detector y estimador de frecuencia quasi-óptimo para señales de banda estrecha en presencia de ruido blanco. El desarrollo de algoritmos eficientes para el cálculo de la DFT, conocidos como fast Fourier transform (FFT), han situado a la FFT como el algoritmo más utilizado para la detección de señales de banda estrecha con requisitos de tiempo real. Así, se ha diseñado e implementado un algoritmo de detección y análisis espectral para su implementación en tiempo real. Los parámetros más característicos de un pulso radar son su tiempo de llegada y anchura de pulso. Se ha diseñado e implementado un algoritmo capaz de extraer dichos parámetros. Este algoritmo se puede utilizar con varios propósitos: realizar un reconocimiento genérico del radar que transmite dicha señal, localizar la posición de dicho radar o bien puede utilizarse como la parte de preprocesado de un clasificador automático de modulaciones. La clasificación automática de modulaciones es extremadamente complicada en entornos no cooperativos. Un clasificador automático de modulaciones se divide en dos partes: preprocesado y el algoritmo de clasificación. Los algoritmos de clasificación basados en parámetros representativos calculan diferentes estadísticos de la señal de entrada y la clasifican procesando dichos estadísticos. Los algoritmos de localization pueden dividirse en dos tipos: triangulación y sistemas cuadráticos. En los algoritmos basados en triangulación, la posición se estima mediante la intersección de las rectas proporcionadas por la dirección de llegada de la señal. En cambio, en los sistemas cuadráticos, la posición se estima mediante la intersección de superficies con igual diferencia en el tiempo de llegada (time difference of arrival, TDOA) o diferencia en la frecuencia de llegada (frequency difference of arrival, FDOA). Aunque sólo se ha implementado la estimación del TDOA y FDOA mediante la diferencia de tiempos de llegada y diferencia de frecuencias, se presentan estudios exhaustivos sobre los diferentes algoritmos para la estimación del TDOA, FDOA y localización pasiva mediante TDOA-FDOA. La segunda parte de la tesis está dedicada al diseño e implementación filtros discretos de respuesta finita (finite impulse response, FIR) para dos aplicaciones radar: phased array de banda ancha mediante filtros retardadores (true-time delay, TTD) y la mejora del alcance de un radar sin modificar el “hardware” existente para que la solución sea de bajo coste. La operación de un phased array de banda ancha mediante desfasadores no es factible ya que el retardo temporal no puede aproximarse mediante un desfase. La solución adoptada e implementada consiste en sustituir los desfasadores por filtros digitales con retardo programable. El máximo alcance de un radar depende de la relación señal a ruido promedio en el receptor. La relación señal a ruido depende a su vez de la energía de señal transmitida, potencia multiplicado por la anchura de pulso. Cualquier cambio hardware que se realice conlleva un alto coste. La solución que se propone es utilizar una técnica de compresión de pulsos, consistente en introducir una modulación interna a la señal, desacoplando alcance y resolución. ABSTRACT This thesis is focused on the study and development of electronic warfare (EW) and radar algorithms for real-time implementation. The arrival of radar, radio and navigation systems to the military sphere led to the development of technologies to fight them. Therefore, the objective of EW systems is the control of the electromagnetic spectrum. Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) is one of the EW functions, whose mission is to detect, collect, analyze, classify and locate all kind of electromagnetic emissions. Electronic intelligence (ELINT) is the SIGINT subsystem that is devoted to radar signals. A real-time system is the one whose correctness depends not only on the provided result but also on the time in which this result is obtained. Radar and EW systems must provide information as fast as possible on a continuous basis and they can be defined as real-time systems. The introduction of real-time constraints implies a feedback process between the design of the algorithms and their hardware implementation. Moreover, a real-time constraint consists of two parameters: Latency and area of the implementation. All the algorithms in this thesis have been implemented on field programmable gate array (FPGAs) platforms, presenting a trade-off among performance, cost, power consumption and reconfigurability. The first part of the thesis is related to the study of different key subsystems of an ELINT equipment: Signal detection with channelized receivers, pulse parameter extraction, modulation classification for radar signals and passive location algorithms. The discrete Fourier transform (DFT) is a nearly optimal detector and frequency estimator for narrow-band signals buried in white noise. The introduction of fast algorithms to calculate the DFT, known as FFT, reduces the complexity and the processing time of the DFT computation. These properties have placed the FFT as one the most conventional methods for narrow-band signal detection for real-time applications. An algorithm for real-time spectral analysis for user-defined bandwidth, instantaneous dynamic range and resolution is presented. The most characteristic parameters of a pulsed signal are its time of arrival (TOA) and the pulse width (PW). The estimation of these basic parameters is a fundamental task in an ELINT equipment. A basic pulse parameter extractor (PPE) that is able to estimate all these parameters is designed and implemented. The PPE may be useful to perform a generic radar recognition process, perform an emitter location technique and can be used as the preprocessing part of an automatic modulation classifier (AMC). Modulation classification is a difficult task in a non-cooperative environment. An AMC consists of two parts: Signal preprocessing and the classification algorithm itself. Featurebased algorithms obtain different characteristics or features of the input signals. Once these features are extracted, the classification is carried out by processing these features. A feature based-AMC for pulsed radar signals with real-time requirements is studied, designed and implemented. Emitter passive location techniques can be divided into two classes: Triangulation systems, in which the emitter location is estimated with the intersection of the different lines of bearing created from the estimated directions of arrival, and quadratic position-fixing systems, in which the position is estimated through the intersection of iso-time difference of arrival (TDOA) or iso-frequency difference of arrival (FDOA) quadratic surfaces. Although TDOA and FDOA are only implemented with time of arrival and frequency differences, different algorithms for TDOA, FDOA and position estimation are studied and analyzed. The second part is dedicated to FIR filter design and implementation for two different radar applications: Wideband phased arrays with true-time delay (TTD) filters and the range improvement of an operative radar with no hardware changes to minimize costs. Wideband operation of phased arrays is unfeasible because time delays cannot be approximated by phase shifts. The presented solution is based on the substitution of the phase shifters by FIR discrete delay filters. The maximum range of a radar depends on the averaged signal to noise ratio (SNR) at the receiver. Among other factors, the SNR depends on the transmitted signal energy that is power times pulse width. Any possible hardware change implies high costs. The proposed solution lies in the use of a signal processing technique known as pulse compression, which consists of introducing an internal modulation within the pulse width, decoupling range and resolution.

Toward Visual Autonomous Ship Board Landing of a VTOL UAV

In this paper we tackle the problem of landing a helicopter autonomously on a ship deck, using as the main sensor, an on-board colour camera. To create a test-bed, we first adequately simulate the movement of a ship landing platform on the Sea, for different Sea States, for different ships, randomly and realistically enough. We use a commercial parallel robot to get this movement. Once we had this, we developed an accurate and robust computer vision system to measure the pose of the helipad with respect to the on-board camera. To deal with the noise and the possible fails of the computer vision, a state estimator was created. With all of this, we are now able to develop and test a controller that closes the loop and finish the autonomous landing task.

Elaine M. Aber

Elaine M. Aber was the first white student to graduate from Lincoln University. She later joined Alpha Kappa Alpha, becoming one of the first whites in Jefferson City to join a predominately African American sorority. She graduated with a Master’s degree in Education from Lincoln University and later a Master’s degree in Guidance and Counseling from the University of Missouri-Columbia. Aber worked as a counselor for the Missouri State of Employment Services until she retired in 1985. One of her greatest professional accomplishments was being published in the Journal of Educational Sociology February 1959 for her article, “A Reverse Pattern of Integration”. She achieved much success due to her ability to work in a diverse environment.

An Evening with Tim Wise, an Anti-Racist Essayist, Author and Educator.

Wise, who began his career as Youth Coordinator and Associate Director of the Louisiana Coalition Against Racism and Nazism, now tours the country speaking to students on over 1,000 college and high school campuses. He also speaks to professional institutions on ways to remove racism from within their ranks. Wise's memoir White Like Me: Reflections on Race from a Privileged Son, is widely regarded for its depiction of how racism creates privilege for Whites, while negatively impacting persons of color. His five other works, including Dear White America: Letter to a New Minority, have also earned critical acclaimed. His seventh work Culture of Cruelty: How America's Elite Demonize the Poor, Valorize the Rich and Jeopardize the Future, is scheduled for release in early 2015.

50 Years Ago We Marched: What began on the grounds of Lincoln University, ended on the steps of the Alabama State Capitol

LINCOLN UNIVERSITY - On March 25, 1965, a bus loaded with Lincoln University students and staff arrived in Montgomery, Ala. to join the Selma march for racial and voting equality. Although the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was in force, African-Americans continued to feel the effects of segregation. The 1960s was a decade of social unrest and change. In the Deep South, specifically Alabama, racial segregation was a cultural norm resistant to change. Governor George Wallace never concealed his personal viewpoints and political stance of the white majority, declaring “Segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever.” The march was aimed at obtaining African-Americans their constitutionally protected right to vote. However, Alabama’s deep-rooted culture of racial bias began to be challenged by a shift in American attitudes towards equality. Both black and whites wanted to end discrimination by using passive resistance, a movement utilized by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. That passive resistance was often met with violence, sometimes at the hands of law enforcement and local citizens. The Selma to Montgomery march was a result of a protest for voting equality. The Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) and the Southern Christian Leadership Counsel (SCLC) among other students marched along the streets to bring awareness to the voter registration campaign, which was organized to end discrimination in voting based on race. Violent acts of police officers and others were some of the everyday challenges protesters were facing. Forty-one participants from Lincoln University arrived in Montgomery to take part in the 1965 march for equality. Students from Lincoln University’s Journalism 383 class spent part of their 2015 spring semester researching the historical event. Here are their stories: Peter Kellogg “We’ve been watching the television, reading about it in the newspapers,” said Peter Kellogg during a February 2015 telephone interview. “Everyone knew the civil rights movement was going on, and it was important that we give him (Robert Newton) some assistance … and Newton said we needed to get involve and do something,” Kellogg, a lecturer in the 1960s at Lincoln University, discussed how the bus trip originated. “That’s why the bus happened,” Kellogg said. “Because of what he (Newton) did - that’s why Lincoln students went and participated.” “People were excited and the people along the sidewalk were supportive,” Kellogg said. However, the mood flipped from excited to scared and feeling intimidated. “It seems though every office building there was a guy in a blue uniform with binoculars standing in the crowd with troops and police. And if looks could kill me, we could have all been dead.” He says the hatred and intimidation was intense. Kellogg, being white, was an immediate target among many white people. He didn’t realize how dangerous the event in Alabama was until he and the others in the bus heard about the death of Viola Liuzzo. The married mother of five from Detroit was shot and killed by members of the Ku Klux Klan while shuttling activists to the Montgomery airport. “We found out about her death on the ride back,” Kellogg recalled. “Because it was a loss of life, and it shows the violence … we could have been exposed to that danger!” After returning to LU, Kellogg’s outlook on life took a dramatic turn. Kellogg noted King’s belief that a person should be willing to die for important causes. “The idea is that life is about something larger and more important than your own immediate gratification, and career success or personal achievements,” Kellogg said. “The civil rights movement … it made me, it made my life more significant because it was about something important.” The civil rights movement influenced Kellogg to change his career path and to become a black history lecturer. Until this day, he has no regrets and believes that his choices made him as a better individual. The bus ride to Alabama, he says, began with the actions of just one student. Robert Newton Robert Newton was the initiator, recruiter and leader of the Lincoln University movement to join Dr. Martin Luther King’s march in Selma. “In the 60s much of the civil rights activists came out of college,” said Newton during a recent phone interview. Many of the events that involved segregation compelled college students to fight for equality. “We had selected boycotts of merchants, when blacks were not allowed to try on clothes,” Newton said. “You could buy clothes at department stores, but no blacks could work at the department stores as sales people. If you bought clothes there you couldn’t try them on, you had to buy them first and take them home and try them on.” Newton said the students risked their lives to be a part of history and influence change. He not only recognized the historic event of his fellow Lincolnites, but also recognized other college students and historical black colleges and universities who played a vital role in history. “You had the S.N.C.C organization, in terms of voting rights and other things, including a lot of participation and working off the bureau,” Newton said. Other schools and places such as UNT, Greenville and Howard University and other historically black schools had groups that came out as leaders. Newton believes that much has changed from 50 years ago. “I think we’ve certainly come a long way from what I’ve seen from the standpoint of growing up outside of Birmingham, Alabama,” Newton said. He believes that college campuses today are more organized in their approach to social causes. “The campus appears to be some more integrated amongst students in terms of organizations and friendships.” Barbara Flint Dr. Barbara Flint grew up in the southern part of Arkansas and came to Lincoln University in 1961. She describes her experience at Lincoln as “being at Lincoln when the world was changing.“ She was an active member of Lincoln’s History Club, which focused on current events and issues and influenced her decision to join the Selma march. “The first idea was to raise some money and then we started talking about ‘why can’t we go?’ I very much wanted to be a living witness in history.” Reflecting on the march and journey to Montgomery, Flint describes it as being filled with tension. “We were very conscious of the fact that once we got on the road past Tennessee we didn’t know what was going to happen,” said Flint during a February 2015 phone interview. “Many of the students had not been beyond Missouri, so they didn’t have that sense of what happens in the South. Having lived there you knew the balance as well as what is likely to happen and what is not likely to happen. As my father use to say, ‘you have to know how to stay on that line of balance.’” Upon arriving in Alabama she remembers the feeling of excitement and relief from everyone on the bus. “We were tired and very happy to be there and we were trying to figure out where we were going to join and get into the march,” Flint said. “There were so many people coming in and then we were also trying to stay together; that was one of the things that really stuck out for me, not just for us but the people who were coming in. You didn’t want to lose sight of the people you came with.” Flint says she was keenly aware of her surroundings. For her, it was more than just marching forward. “I can still hear those helicopters now,” Flint recalled. “Every time the helicopters would come over the sound would make people jump and look up - I think that demonstrated the extent of the tenseness that was there at the time because the helicopters kept coming over every few minutes.” She said that the marchers sang “we are not afraid,” but that fear remained with every step. “Just having been there and being a witness and marching you realize that I’m one of those drops that’s going to make up this flood and with this flood things will move,” said Flint. As a student at Lincoln in 1965, Flint says the Selma experience undoubtedly changed her life. “You can’t expect to do exactly what you came to Lincoln to do,” Flint says. “That march - along with all the other marchers and the action that was taking place - directly changed the paths that I and many other people at Lincoln would take.” She says current students and new generations need to reflect on their personal role in society. “Decide what needs to be done and ask yourself ‘how can I best contribute to it?’” Flint said. She notes technology and social media can be used to reach audiences in ways unavailable to her generation in 1965. “So you don’t always have to wait for someone else to step out there and say ‘let’s march,’ you can express your vision and your views and you have the means to do so (so) others can follow you. Jaci Newsom Jaci Newsom came to Lincoln in 1965 from Atlanta. She came to Lincoln to major in sociology and being in Jefferson City was largely different from what she had grown up with. “To be able to come into a restaurant, sit down and be served a nice meal was eye-opening to me,” said Newsom during a recent interview. She eventually became accustomed to the relaxed attitude of Missouri and was shocked by the situation she encountered on an out-of-town trip. “I took a bus trip from Atlanta to Pensacola and I encountered the worse racism that I have ever seen. I was at bus stop, I went in to be served and they would not serve me. There was a policeman sitting there at the table and he told me that privately owned places could select not to serve you.” Newsom describes her experience of marching in Montgomery as being one with a purpose. “We felt as though we achieved something - we felt a sense of unity,” Newsom said. “We were very excited (because) we were going to hear from Martin Luther King. To actually be in the presence of him and the other civil rights workers there was just such enthusiasm and excitement yet there was also some apprehension of what we might encounter.” Many of the marchers showed their inspiration and determination while pressing forward towards the grounds of the Alabama Capitol building. Newsom recalled that the marchers were singing the lyrics “ain’t gonna let nobody turn me around” and “we shall overcome.” “ I started seeing people just like me,” Newsom said. “I don’t recall any of the scowling, the hitting, the things I would see on TV later. I just saw a sea of humanity marching towards the Capitol. I don’t remember what Martin Luther King said but it was always the same message: keep the faith; we’re going to get where we’re going and let us remember what our purpose is.” Newsom offers advice on what individuals can do to make their society a more productive and peaceful place. “We have come a long way and we have ways to change things that we did not have before,” Newsom said. “You need to work in positive ways to change.” Referencing the recent unrest in Ferguson, Mo., she believes that people become destructive as a way to show and vent anger. Her generation, she says, was raised to react in lawful ways – and believe in hope. “We have faith to do things in a way that was lawful and it makes me sad what people do when they feel without hope, and there is hope,” Newsom says. “Non-violence does work - we need to include everyone to make this world a better place.” Newsom graduated from Lincoln in 1969 and describes her experience at Lincoln as, “I grew up and did more growing at Lincoln than I think I did for the rest of my life.”

Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.

Using rare mutations to estimate population divergence times: A maximum likelihood approach

In this paper we propose a method to estimate by maximum likelihood the divergence time between two populations, specifically designed for the analysis of nonrecurrent rare mutations. Given the rapidly growing amount of data, rare disease mutations affecting humans seem the most suitable candidates for this method. The estimator RD, and its conditional version RDc, were derived, assuming that the population dynamics of rare alleles can be described by using a birth–death process approximation and that each mutation arose before the split of a common ancestral population into the two diverging populations. The RD estimator seems more suitable for large sample sizes and few alleles, whose age can be approximated, whereas the RDc estimator appears preferable when this is not the case. When applied to three cystic fibrosis mutations, the estimator RD could not exclude a very recent time of divergence among three Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, the divergence time between these populations and the Danish population was estimated to be, on the average, 4,500 or 15,000 years, assuming or not a selective advantage for cystic fibrosis carriers, respectively. Confidence intervals are large, however, and can probably be reduced only by analyzing more alleles or loci.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.