New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Gender and politics in the devolved assemblies

The devolution of powers from Westminster to the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales led to much speculation about the creation of a new political era that would herald new ways of 'doing politics'. It was thought that the new institutions would provide a more inclusive, less combative culture that aimed to include a greater proportion of women members. With the 'new' institutions now over ten years old, linguistic research into the participation of men and women on the debate floor shows that they participate more equally and that improvements have been made in relation to the extent that women feel included. However, the devolved institutions retain some of the adversarial features associated with Westminster, and women are still subject to the burden of gendered stereotypical judgements and expectations that may affect their performance and inclusion within them.

Degree classification and recent graduates’ ability: Is there any signalling effect?

Research across several countries has shown that degree classification (i.e. the final grade awarded to students successfully completing university) is an important determinant of graduates’ first destination outcome. Graduates leaving university with higher degree classifications have better employment opportunities and a higher likelihood of continuing education relative to those with lower degree classifications. This article investigates whether one of the reasons for this result is that employers and higher education institutions use degree classification as a signalling device for the ability that recent graduates may possess. Given the large number of applicants and the amount of time and resources typically required to assess their skills, employers and higher education institutions may decide to rely on this measure when forming beliefs about recent graduates’ abilities. Using data on two cohorts of recent graduates from a UK university, results suggest that an Upper Second degree classification may have a signalling role.

An analysis of beginning mentors’ critical incidents in English post-compulsory education: navigating stormy waters

This qualitative study explores the barriers and dilemmas faced by beginning and novice mentors in post-compulsory education in the southeast of England. It analyses critical incidents (Tripp, 2012) taken from the everyday practice of mentors who were supporting new teachers and lecturers in the southeast of England. It categorises different types of critical incidents that mentors encountered and describes the strategies and rationales mentors used to support mentees and (indirectly) their learners and colleagues. The study explores ways in which mentors' own values, beliefs and life experiences affected their mentoring practice.  Methodology As part of a specialist master’s-level professional development module, 21 mentors wrote about two critical incidents (Tripp, 2012) taken from their own professional experiences, which aimed to demonstrate their support for their mentee’s range of complex needs. These critical incidents were written up as short case studies, which justified the rationale for their interventions and demonstrated the mentors' own professional development in mentoring. Critical incidents were used as units of analysis and categorised thematically by topic, sector and mentoring strategies used. Findings The research demonstrated the complex nature of decision-making and the potential for professional learning within a mentoring dyad. The study of these critical incidents found that mentors most frequently cited the controversial nature of teaching observations, the mentor’s role in mediating professional relationships, the importance of inculcating professional dispositions in education, and the need to support new teachers so that they can use effective behaviour management strategies. This study contributes to our understanding of the central importance of mentoring for professional growth within teacher education. It identifies common dilemmas that novice mentors face in post-compulsory education, justifies the rationale for their interventions and mentoring strategies, and helps to identify ways in which mentors' professional development needs can be met. It demonstrates that mentoring is complex, non-linear and mediated by mentors’ motivation and values.

Improving innovation and performance of Social Enterprises: Knowing what they know

Social Enterprises (SEs) are normally micro and small businesses that trade to tackle social problems, and to improve communities, people’s life chances, and the environment. Thus, their importance to society and economies is increasing. However, there is still a need for more understanding of how these organisations operate, perform, innovate and scale-up. This knowledge is crucial to design and provide accurate strategies to enhance the sector and increase its impact and coverage. Obtaining this understanding is the main driver of this paper, which follows the theoretical lens of the Knowledge-based View (KBV) theory to develop and assess empirically a novel model for knowledge management capabilities (KMCs) development that improves performance of SEs. The empirical assessment consisted of a quantitative study with 432 owners and senior members of SEs in UK, underpinned by 21 interviews. The findings demonstrate how particular organisational characteristics of SEs, the external conditions in which they operate, and informal knowledge management activities, have created overall improvements in their performance of up to 20%, based on a year-to-year comparison, including innovation and creation of social and environmental value. These findings elucidate new perspectives that can contribute not only to SEs and SE supporters, but also to other firms.

Equitable representation in councils: theory and an application to the United Nations Security Council

We analyze democratic equity in council voting games (CVGs). In a CVG, a voting body containing all members delegates decision-making to a (time-varying) subset of its members, as describes, e.g., the relationship between the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing democratic equitability in CVGs at both the country and region levels, and for different assumptions regarding preference correlation. We apply the framework to evaluate the equitability of the UNSC, and the claims of those who seek to reform it. We find that the individual permanent members are overrepresented by between 21.3 times (United Kingdom) and 3.8 times (China) from a country-level perspective, while from a region perspective Eastern Europe is the most heavily overrepresented region with more than twice its equitable representation, and Africa the most heavily underrepresented. Our equity measures do not preclude some UNSC members from exercising veto rights, however.