‘NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat: A New Perspective on Western Threat Perception and Policy Making’

It has been argued that the US strategy paper NSC 68 of 1950 which ushered in the great Cold War rearmament process first in the US and then in NATO was a vast overreaction. This paper argues, by contrast, that given the intelligence about the Soviet Union's and its satellites' military buildup and the role of China in that period, this was a reasonable strategy to embrace.

Middle and Late Cenomanian anoxia in shallow and deeper shelf environments of western Morocco

The response of shallow-water sequences to oceanic anoxic event 2 and mid-Cenomanian events 1a and 1b was investigated along the west African margin of Morocco north of Agadir (Azazoul) and correlated with the deep-water sequence of the Tarfaya Basin (Mohammed Beach) based on biostratigraphy, mineralogy, phosphorus and stable isotopes. In the deeper Mohammed Beach section results show double peaks in δ13Corg for mid-Cenomanian events 1a and 1b (Rotalipora reicheli biozone, lower CC10a biozone), the characteristic oceanic anoxic event 2 δ13C excursion (Rotalipora cushmani extinction, top of CC10a biozone) and laminated (anoxic) black shale. In the shallow environment north of Agadir, a fluctuating sea-level associated with dysoxic, brackish and mesotrophic conditions prevailed during the middle to late Cenomanian, as indicated by oyster biostromes, nannofossils, planktonic and benthonic foraminiferal assemblages. Anoxic conditions characteristic of oceanic anoxic event 2 (for example, laminated black shales) did not reach into shallow-water environments until the maximum transgression of the early Turonian. Climate conditions decoupled along the western margin of Morocco between mid-Cenomanian event 1b and the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary, as also observed in eastern Tethys. North of Agadir alternating humid and dry seasonal conditions prevailed, whereas in the Tarfaya Basin the climate was dry and seasonal. This climatic decoupling can be attributed to variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the intensity of the north-east trade winds in tropical areas.

Nitrogen speciation and phosphorus fractionation dynamics in a lowland chalk catchment

A detailed analysis of temporal and spatial trends in nitrogen (N) speciation and phosphorus (P) fractionation in the Wylye, a lowland Chalk sub-catchment of the Hampshire Avon, UK is presented, identifying the sources contributing to nutrient enrichment, and temporal variability in the fractionation of nutrients in transit from headwaters to lower reaches of the river. Samples were collected weekly from ten monitoring stations with daily sampling at three further sites over one year, and monthly inorganic N and total reactive P (TRP) concentrations at three of the ten weekly monitoring stations over a ten year period are also presented. The data indicate significant daily and seasonal variation in nutrient fractionation in the water column, resulting from plant uptake of dissolved organic and inorganic nutrient fractions in the summer months, increased delivery of both N and P from diffuse sources in the autumn to winter period and during high flow events, and lack of dilution of point source discharges to the Wylye from septic tank, small package Sewage Treatment Works (STW) and urban Waste Water Treatment Works (WwTW) during the summer low flow period. Weekly data show that contributing source areas vary along the river with headwater N and P strongly influenced by diffuse inorganic N and particulate P fluxes, and SRP and organic-rich point source contributions from STW and WwTW having a greater influence in the lower reaches. Long-term data show a decrease in TRP concentrations at all three monitoring stations, with the most pronounced decrease occurring downstream from Warminster WwTW, following the introduction of P stripping at the works in 2001. Inorganic N demonstrates no statistically significant change over the ten year period of record in the rural headwaters, but an increase in the lower reaches downstream from the WwTW which may be due to urban expansion in the lower catchment.

Temporal genetic variation of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, across western Europe and the British Isles

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have had profound effects on the phylogeographic structure of many species. Classically, species were thought to have become isolated in peninsular refugia, but there is limited evidence that large, non-polar species survived outside traditional refugial areas. We examined the phylogeographic structure of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a species that shows high ecological adaptability in the western Palaearctic region. We compared mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region) from 399 modern and 31 ancient individuals from across Europe. Our objective was to test whether red foxes colonised the British Isles from mainland Europe in the late Pleistocene, or whether there is evidence that they persisted in the region through the Last Glacial Maximum. We found red foxes to show a high degree of phylogeographic structuring across Europe and, consistent with palaeontological and ancient DNA evidence, confirmed via phylogenetic indicators that red foxes were persistent in areas outside peninsular refugia during the last ice age. Bayesian analyses and tests of neutrality indicated population expansion. We conclude that there is evidence that red foxes from the British Isles derived from central European populations that became isolated after the closure of the landbridge with Europe.

Reconciling observed and modelled phytoplankton dynamics in a major lowland UK river system, the Thames

This study aims to elucidate the key mechanisms controlling phytoplankton growth and decay within the Thames basin through the application of a modified version of an established river-algal model and comparison with observed stream water chlorophyll-a concentrations. The River Thames showed a distinct simulated phytoplankton seasonality and behaviour having high spring, moderate summer and low autumn chlorophyll-a concentrations. Three main sections were identified along the River Thames with different phytoplankton abundance and seasonality: (i) low chlorophyll-a concentrations from source to Newbridge; (ii) steep concentration increase between Newbridge and Sutton; and (iii) high concentrations with a moderate increase in concentration from Sutton to the end of the study area (Maidenhead). However, local hydrologic (e.g. locks) and other conditions (e.g. radiation, water depth, grazer dynamics, etc.) affected the simulated growth and losses. The model achieved good simulation results during both calibration and testing through a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions. Simulated phytoplankton growth was controlled predominantly by residence time, but during medium–low flow periods available light, water temperature and herbivorous grazing defined algal community development. These results challenge the perceived importance of in-stream nutrient concentrations as the perceived primary control on phytoplankton growth and death.

Forest livelihoods: beekeeping as men's work in western Tanzania

This chapter takes the example of local African beekeeping to explore how the forest can act as an important locus for men's work in Western Tanzania. Here we scrutinise how beekeeping enables its practitioners to situate themselves in the forest locality and observe how the social relationships, interactions and everyday practices entailed in living and working together are a means through which beekeepers generate a sense of belonging and identity. As part and parcel of this process, men transmit their skills to a new generation, thus reproducing themselves and their social environment.

The relationship between community-based organisations and the effective management of coastal and marine resources in the Western Indian Ocean region

This study examines the relationship between community based organisations and marine and coastal resource management in the Western Indian Ocean Region.

Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.

A 45 kyr palaeoclimate record from the lowland interior of tropical South America

We present a well-dated, high-resolution, ~ 45 kyr lake sediment record reflecting regional temperature and precipitation change in the continental interior of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics of South America. The study site is Laguna La Gaiba (LLG), a large lake (95 km2) hydrologically-linked to the Pantanal, an immense, seasonally-flooded basin and the world's largest tropical wetland (135,000 km2). Lake-level changes at LLG are therefore reflective of regional precipitation. We infer past fluctuations in precipitation at this site through changes in: i) pollen-inferred extent of flood-tolerant forest; ii) relative abundance of terra firme humid tropical forest versus seasonally-dry tropical forest pollen types; and iii) proportions of deep- versus shallow-water diatoms. A probabilistic model, based on plant family and genus climatic optima, was used to generate quantitative estimates of past temperature from the fossil pollen data. Our temperature reconstruction demonstrates rising temperature (by 4 °C) at 19.5 kyr BP, synchronous with the onset of deglacial warming in the central Andes, strengthening the evidence that climatic warming in the SH tropics preceded deglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by at least 5 kyr. We provide unequivocal evidence that the climate at LLG was markedly drier during the last glacial period (45.0–12.2 kyr BP) than during the Holocene, contrasting with SH tropical Andean and Atlantic records that demonstrate a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon during the global Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21 kyr BP), in tune with the ~ 20 kyr precession orbital cycle. Holocene climate conditions occurred as early as 12.8–12.2 kyr BP, when increased precipitation in the Pantanal catchment caused heightened flooding and rising lake levels in LLG. In contrast to this strong geographic variation in LGM precipitation across the continent, expansion of tropical dry forest between 10 and 3 kyr BP at LLG strengthens the body of evidence for widespread early–mid Holocene drought across tropical South America.

Pollen-based differentiation of Amazonian rainforest communities and implications for lowland palaeoecology in tropical South America

An ongoing controversy in Amazonian palaeoecology is the manner in which Amazonian rainforest communities have responded to environmental change over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Much of this controversy results from an inability to identify the floristic heterogeneity exhibited by rainforest communities within fossil pollen records. We apply multivariate (Principal Components Analysis) and classification (Unweighted Pair Group with Arithmetic Mean Agglomerative Classification) techniques to floral-biometric, modern pollen trap and lake sediment pollen data situated within different rainforest communities in the tropical lowlands of Amazonian Bolivia. Modern pollen rain analyses from artificial pollen traps show that evergreen terra firme (well-drained), evergreen terra firme liana, evergreen seasonally inundated, and evergreen riparian rainforests may be readily differentiated, floristically and palynologically. Analogue matching techniques, based on Euclidean distance measures, are employed to compare these pollen signatures with surface sediment pollen assemblages from five lakes: Laguna Bella Vista, Laguna Chaplin, and Laguna Huachi situated within the Madeira-Tapajós moist forest ecoregion, and Laguna Isirere and Laguna Loma Suarez, which are situated within forest patches in the Beni savanna ecoregion. The same numerical techniques are used to compare rainforest pollen trap signatures with the fossil pollen record of Laguna Chaplin.