Gruss aus Bayreuth! : Ein' Becher mit Leisten, ein' Becher mit Stein

kaum hör' ich die Glöcklein noch läuten / Und immer noch sitz ich und schenke mir ein, / Ich weiss nicht was soll es bedeuten!

Untersuchung über den eigentlichen Sinn der höheren Analysis, nebst einer idealistischen Übersicht der Mathematik und Naturkunde nach ihrem ganzen Umfang

von Ernst Gottfried Fischer

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

The epidemiology of uterine cervical cancer among Anglo and Hispanic women in Texas

This study describes the incidence and mortality of uterine cervical cancer among Texas Anglo and Hispanic women, compares these data with respective data from the U.S. SEER Program, and determines factors which explain observed differences between the Texas ethnic groups and between Texas and SEER women. A total of 1,052 invasive and 1,852 in situ cervical cancer cases diagnosed during 1976-1985 among Texas residents were identified from the Texas Cancer Registry for study.^ The effect of ethnicity on the incidence of cervical cancer was found to be strongly modified by age. Texas Hispanic women 35 years and older were found to be at significantly greater risk (two- to four-fold) of invasive cervical cancer than Texas Anglos, and the risk was greatest among women 55-69 years. Compared with SEER females, both Texas ethnic groups exhibited excess risks of invasive cancer, but the magnitude varied with age. In contrast, Texas females were diagnosed less frequently with in situ cervical cancer than SEER females, and Hispanics had the largest differentials.^ As an indicator of differences in screening utilization between Texas and SEER ethnic groups, comparisons of in situ with invasive rates revealed both Texas ethnic groups in all age groups to have lower ratios than respective SEER females. Texas Hispanics had the lowest ratios. A larger percentage of squamous cell tumors were diagnosed among SEER females compared with Texas females, also supporting the finding of less screening. Texas invasive cases did not differ by ethnic group in the distribution of cell types. Hispanics 35-54 years had higher rates than Texas Anglos and SEER Hispanics for all four cell types.^ Declines in the incidence of invasive tumors over time were seen among Texas Anglos 35-54 years and Hispanics 55+ years. The mortality of cervical cancer also declined among Texas Anglo and Hispanic females 55+ years, but the rates still remained highest among these groups.^ In summary, these data indicate increased risks of invasive cervical cancer and less screening among subgroups of Texas females. Prevention efforts should be directed toward these Texas women at high risk of invasive cervical tumors. ^

Assessing how middle school students' nutrient intake varies based on the availability of a la carte offerings at lunch

Purpose: School districts in the U.S. regularly offer foods that compete with the USDA reimbursable meal, known as `a la carte' foods. These foods must adhere to state nutritional regulations; however, the implementation of these regulations often differs across districts. The purpose of this study is to compare two methods of offering a la carte foods on student's lunch intake: 1) an extensive a la carte program in which schools have a separate area for a la carte food sales, that includes non-reimbursable entrees; and 2) a moderate a la carte program, which offers the sale of a la carte foods on the same serving line with reimbursable meals. ^ Methods: Direct observation was used to assess children's lunch consumption in six schools, across two districts in Central Texas (n=373 observations). Schools were matched on socioeconomic status. Data collectors were randomly assigned to students, and recorded foods obtained, foods consumed, source of food, gender, grade, and ethnicity. Observations were entered into a nutrient database program, FIAS Millennium Edition, to obtain nutritional information. Differences in energy and nutrient intake across lunch sources and districts were assessed using ANOVA and independent t-tests. A linear regression model was applied to control for potential confounders. ^ Results: Students at schools with extensive a la carte programs consumed significantly more calories, carbohydrates, total fat, saturated fat, calcium, and sodium compared to students in schools with moderate a la carte offerings (p<.05). Students in the extensive a la carte program consumed approximately 94 calories more than students in the moderate a la carte program. There was no significant difference in the energy consumption in students who consumed any amount of a la carte compared to students who consumed none. In both districts, students who consumed a la carte offerings were more likely to consume sugar-sweetened beverages, sweets, chips, and pizza compared to students who consumed no a la carte foods. ^ Conclusion: The amount, type and method of offering a la carte foods can significantly affect student dietary intake. This pilot study indicates that when a la carte foods are more available, students consume more calories. Findings underscore the need for further investigation on how availability of a la carte foods affects children's diets. Guidelines for school a la carte offerings should be maximized to encourage the consumption of healthful foods and appropriate energy intake.^

Adherence to HIV /AIDS therapies among low -literacy populations: The ALP project

Adherence to HIV/AIDS therapies has been an important health problem since the early 1980s when AZT was first prescribed as a therapy for HIV/AIDS. It became particularly important between 1995 and 1997 with the advent of protease inhibitors (Chesney, Ickovics, Hecht, Sikipa, & Rabkin J., 1999) and became even more significant as persons with HIV/AIDS began to develop resistance to medications. Low-literacy populations have poorer health (Brez & Taylor, 1997) and higher AIDS rates (Simon, Hu, Diaz, & Kerndt, 1995), than their higher literacy counterparts due to delayed treatment (Baker, Parker, Williams, Clark, & Nurss, 1997), shame of literacy skills (Parikh, 1996), and poor access to care (Williams, et al., 1995). Poorer health and higher AIDS rates can also be attributed to poor patient-provider relationships (Crespo-Fierro, 1997; Eldred, Wu, Chaisson, & Moore, 1998) to a poorer understanding of medical protocols (Murphy, 1997), and inadequate patient education (Ungvarski, 1997; Davis, Michielutte, Askov, Williams, & Weiss, 1998, Doak, Doak, & Root, 1996). ^ The ALP intervention was developed for HIV positive low-literacy populations of African American women in Houston, Texas. The intervention was based on a needs assessment, using the PRECEDE model, an innovative process referred to as Intervention Mapping, and validated using formative evaluation methods with 54 individuals. The needs assessment resulted in a list of behavioral, environmental, predisposing, enabling, and reinforcing determinants of adherence. The Intervention Mapping framework was used to refine these determinants and develop a list of objectives describing what must be learned or changed to for the target population to adhere to HIV/AIDS therapies. Methods and strategies, were developed using theoretical constructs from the Health Belief Model (Rosenstock, 1974) and Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, 1986). These theories, empirical evidence, and information from the target population indicated that perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, outcome expectations, and self-efficacy were important and changeable determinants of adherence to HIV/AIDS therapies for this population. ^ These components were brought together in the form of a theory-based color cartoon book and 10-minute cassette tape. The book was developed for people with 2.9 years of U.S. education as measured with the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level method and the script was recorded onto a cassette tape to make it suitable for populations with even lower-literacy skills. A formative evaluation was conducted to ensure that the content and structure were accurate, clear, realistic, readable, appropriate, and likely to be used as intended. ^