Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

L'Oreal acquisition policy: The Body Shop case study

The Work Project I present focuses on the analysis of L’Oréal acquisition policy, trying to outline if the M&A deals it has led over the last 14 years have succeeded in creating value. By replicating the model proposed by Todd Hazelkorn, Marc Zenner and Anil Shivdasani in their paper “Creating Value with Mergers and Acquisitions”, I analyzed the 29 M&A deals that L’Oréal has led worldwide, understanding the common factors able to explain the success of such transactions. Further, I focused on The Body Shop case study, a highly criticized and controversial acquisition that has proved to be profitable and able to create value.

Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Polymerase chain reaction and nested-PCR approaches for detecting Cryptosporidium in water catchments of water treatment plants in Curitiba, State of Paraná, Brazil

Introduction Cryptosporidium is an important protozoan cause of waterborne disease worldwide of concern to public health authorities. To prevent outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis, the monitoring of this parasite in drinking water is necessary. In the present work, the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and nested-PCR techniques were used to detect Cryptosporidium in raw water from catchment points of four water treatment plants (WTP) in Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil. Methods First, DNA extraction techniques were tested in samples containing decreasing amount of oocysts in reagent water, and PCR and nested-PCR with specific primers for 18SSU rDNA of Cryptosporidium were conducted to determine their sensitivity. In reagent water, a commercial extraction kit provided the best analytical sensitivity, and PCR and nested-PCR allowed the detection of five and two oocysts, respectively, with the primers XIAOR/XIAOF and XIAO1F/XIAO2R. Results In the spiking experiments, only the PCR with the primers AWA995F/AWA1206R was successful at detecting concentrations of 0.1 oocysts/mL. Two catchments samples of raw water and/or water sludge from four WTPs were contaminated with Cryptosporidium. Conclusions The application of the techniques to monitor Cryptosporidium in water and detect contamination in water catchments of WTPs in Curitiba are discussed in the present work.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Social tariffs for water and waste services in mainland Portugal: An impact analysis

This paper proposes to quantify the effect of social tariffs (ST) in the Portuguese water and waste sector (WWS). It calculates the amount of subsidy implicit in ST schemes, characterising the existing tariffs in 2011 and producing a synthetic tariff scene where the regulator’s recommendation is respected. This is the first time such an exercise is undertaken and it is very relevant in a context of deep economic crisis. Results suggest that there are fewer beneficiaries than what income eligibility criteria would imply and that putting the regulator’s recommendation in practice would considerably raise subsidy amounts, potentially leading to a severe increase in non-subsidised user tariffs to allow for break-even.

Competition policy costs to firms

The existence of competition policy forces companies to adjust their behaviour. This is also costly. Using a database from a company on contracts, I will try to estimate if a specific competition policy disposition, supply contracts cannot be longer than 60 months, has costs for the coffee suppliers operating in the Portuguese “on-trade” coffee market. The estimation method used in this paper will be OLS. The results suggest that limiting the duration of exclusivity contracts to 60 months can be harmful to the coffee suppliers and it can even seriously affect the market functioning. Key

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

Toxoplasma gondii infection: seroprevalence and associated risk factors among primary schoolchildren in Lagos City, Southern Nigeria

INTRODUCTION: Toxoplasma gondii infection has been described as the most widespread zoonotic infection of humans and other animals. Information concerning T. gondii infection among schoolchildren is unavailable in Lagos City, Nigeria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study investigated the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with T. gondii infection among primary schoolchildren (PSC) from a community located in the center of Lagos, southern Nigeria, from November 2013 to March 2014. A total of 382 PSC were screened for the presence of sera anti-T. gondii antibodies using a latex agglutination test (TOXO Test-MT, Tokyo, Japan). A cutoff titer of ≥ 1:32 was considered positive, while titers ≥ 1:1,024 indicated high responders. Questionnaires were also used to obtain data on possible risk factors from parents/guardians. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 24% (91/382), and 83.5% (76/91) of seropositive PSC were classified as high responders. Among the risk factors tested, including contact with cats and soil, consumption of raw meat and vegetables, and drinking unboiled water, none showed statistical significance after multivariate adjustment. No associations were observed among age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and parents' occupation/educational level. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study show evidence of active infection, and hence, there is need for urgent preventive measures in this city. Further investigation is required to clarify the transmission routes. Policy makers also need to initiate prevention and control programs to protect pregnant women and immunocompromised patients in particular because they are more severely affected by T. gondii infection.

Development and application of NMR techniques to study water-in-CO2 microemulsions

Self-assembly is a phenomenon that occurs frequently throughout the universe. In this work, two self-assembling systems were studied: the formation of reverse micelles in isooctane and in supercritical CO2 (scCO2), and the formation of gels in organic solvents. The goal was the physicochemical study of these systems and the development of an NMR methodology to study them. In this work, AOT was used as a model molecule both to comprehensively study a widely researched system water/AOT/isooctane at different water concentrations and to assess its aggregation in supercritical carbon dioxide at different pressures. In order to do so an NMR methodology was devised, in which it was possible to accurately determine hydrodynamic radius of the micelle (in agreement with DLS measurements) using diffusion ordered spectroscopy (DOSY), the micellar stability and its dynamics. This was mostly assessed by 1H NMR relaxation studies, which allowed to determine correlation times and size of correlating water molecules, which are in agreement with the size of the shell that interacts with the micellar layer. The encapsulation of differently-sized carbohydrates was also studied and allowed to understand the dynamics and stability of the aggregates in such conditions. A W/CO2 microemulsion was prepared using AOT and water in scCO2, with ethanol as cosurfactant. The behaviour of the components of the system at different pressures was assessed and it is likely that above 130 bar reverse microemulsions were achieved. The homogeneity of the system was also determined by NMR. The formation of the gel network by two small molecular organogelators in toluene-d8 was studied by DOSY. A methodology using One-shot DOSY to perform the spectra was designed and applied with success. This yielded an understanding about the role of the solvent and gelator in the aggregation process, as an estimation of the time of gelation.

Aedes aegypti eggs oviposited on water surface collected from field ovitraps in Nova Iguaçu City, Brazil

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: Aedes aegypti eggs can be collected from the water surface. METHODS: Aedes aegypti oviposition from 97 field ovitraps was studied. RESULTS: Of the 16,016 eggs collected, 11,439 were obtained from paddles in ovitraps and 4,577 from water. Further, 89 (91.8%) traps contained eggs on water and 22 (22.7%) traps contained eggs only on water. CONCLUSIONS: In field traps, Aedes aegypti females usually oviposit some eggs on water surface suggesting that they might also oviposit on water of some natural breeding, and this possibility needs to be investigated. Eggs oviposited on water need to be considered for collecting trap data.

Valorization of grape pomace through hot compressed water extraction/hydrolysis

The world energy consumption is expected to increase strongly in coming years, because of the emerging economies. Biomass is the only renewable carbon resource that is abundant enough to be used as a source of energy Grape pomace is one of the most abundant agro-industrial residues in the world, being a good biomass resource. The aim of this work is the valorization of grape pomace from white grapes (WWGP) and from red grapes (RWGP), through the extraction of phenolic compounds with antioxidant activity, as well as through the extraction/hydrolysis of carbohydrates, using subcritical water, or hot compressed water (HCW). The main focus of this work is the optimization of the process for WWGP, while for RWGP only one set of parameters were tested. The temperatures used were 170, 190 and 210 °C for WWGP, and 180 °C for RWGP. The water flow rates were 5 and 10 mL/min, and the pressure was always kept at 100 bar. Before performing HCW assays, both residues were characterized, revealing that WWGP is very rich in free sugars (around 40%) essentially glucose and fructose, while RWGP has higher contents of structural sugars, lignin, lipids and protein. For WWGP the best results were achieved at 210 °C and 10 mL/min: higher yield in water soluble compounds (69 wt.%), phenolics extraction (26.2 mg/g) and carbohydrates recovery (49.3 wt.% relative to the existing 57.8%). For RWGP the conditions were not optimized (180 °C and 5 mL/min), and the values of the yield in water soluble compounds (25 wt.%), phenolics extraction (19.5 mg/g) and carbohydrates recovery (11.4 wt.% relative to the existing 33.5%) were much lower. The antioxidant activity of the HCW extracts from each assay was determined, the best result being obtained for WWGP, namely for extracts obtained at 210 °C (EC50=20.8 μg/mL; EC50 = half maximum effective concentration; EC50 = 22.1 μg/mL for RWGP, at 180 ºC).