Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

Elucidating the internal structure of psychophysical timing performance in the sub-second and second range by utilizing confirmatory factor analysis

The most influential theoretical account in time psychophysics assumes the existence of a unitary internal clock based on neural counting. The distinct timing hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests an automatic timing mechanism for processing of durations in the sub-second range and a cognitively controlled timing mechanism for processing of durations in the range of seconds. Although several psychophysical approaches can be applied for identifying the internal structure of interval timing in the second and sub-second range, the existing data provide a puzzling picture of rather inconsistent results. In the present chapter, we introduce confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to further elucidate the internal structure of interval timing performance in the sub-second and second range. More specifically, we investigated whether CFA would rather support the notion of a unitary timing mechanism or of distinct timing mechanisms underlying interval timing in the sub-second and second range, respectively. The assumption of two distinct timing mechanisms which are completely independent of each other was not supported by our data. The model assuming a unitary timing mechanism underlying interval timing in both the sub-second and second range fitted the empirical data much better. Eventually, we also tested a third model assuming two distinct, but functionally related mechanisms. The correlation between the two latent variables representing the hypothesized timing mechanisms was rather high and comparison of fit indices indicated that the assumption of two associated timing mechanisms described the observed data better than only one latent variable. Models are discussed in the light of the existing psychophysical and neurophysiological data.

Improved methods for measuring forest landscape structure: LiDAR complements field-based habitat assessment

Conservation and monitoring of forest biodiversity requires reliable information about forest structure and composition at multiple spatial scales. However, detailed data about forest habitat characteristics across large areas are often incomplete due to difficulties associated with field sampling methods. To overcome this limitation we employed a nationally available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing dataset to develop variables describing forest landscape structure across a large environmental gradient in Switzerland. Using a model species indicative of structurally rich mountain forests (hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia), we tested the potential of such variables to predict species occurrence and evaluated the additional benefit of LiDAR data when used in combination with traditional, sample plot-based field variables. We calibrated boosted regression trees (BRT) models for both variable sets separately and in combination, and compared the models’ accuracies. While both field-based and LiDAR models performed well, combining the two data sources improved the accuracy of the species’ habitat model. The variables retained from the two datasets held different types of information: field variables mostly quantified food resources and cover in the field and shrub layer, LiDAR variables characterized heterogeneity of vegetation structure which correlated with field variables describing the understory and ground vegetation. When combined with data on forest vegetation composition from field surveys, LiDAR provides valuable complementary information for encompassing species niches more comprehensively. Thus, LiDAR bridges the gap between precise, locally restricted field-data and coarse digital land cover information by reliably identifying habitat structure and quality across large areas.

Time Variable Gravity: Contributions of GOCE Satellite Data to Monthly and Bi-monthly GRACE Gravity Estimates

A feasibility study by Pail et al. (Can GOCE help to improve temporal gravity field estimates? In: Ouwehand L (ed) Proceedings of the 4th International GOCE User Workshop, ESA Publication SP-696, 2011b) shows that GOCE (‘Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer’) satellite gravity gradiometer (SGG) data in combination with GPS derived orbit data (satellite-to-satellite tracking: SST-hl) can be used to stabilize and reduce the striping pattern of a bi-monthly GRACE (‘Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment’) gravity field estimate. In this study several monthly (and bi-monthly) combinations of GRACE with GOCE SGG and GOCE SST-hl data on the basis of normal equations are investigated. Our aim is to assess the role of the gradients (solely) in the combination and whether already one month of GOCE observations provides sufficient data for having an impact in the combination. The estimation of clean and stable monthly GOCE SGG normal equations at high resolution ( >  d/o 150) is found to be difficult, and the SGG component, solely, does not show significant added value to monthly and bi-monthly GRACE gravity fields. Comparisons of GRACE-only and combined monthly and bi-monthly solutions show that the striping pattern can only be reduced when using both GOCE observation types (SGG, SST-hl), and mainly between d/o 45 and 60.

Quick divergence but slow convergence during ecotype formation in lake and stream stickleback pairs of variable age

When genetic constraints restrict phenotypic evolution, diversification can be predicted to evolve along so-called lines of least resistance. To address the importance of such constraints and their resolution, studies of parallel phenotypic divergence that differ in their age are valuable. Here, we investigate the parapatric evolution of six lake and stream threespine stickleback systems from Iceland and Switzerland, ranging in age from a few decades to several millennia. Using phenotypic data, we test for parallelism in ecotypic divergence between parapatric lake and stream populations and compare the observed patterns to an ancestral-like marine population. We find strong and consistent phenotypic divergence, both among lake and stream populations and between our freshwater populations and the marine population. Interestingly, ecotypic divergence in low-dimensional phenotype space (i.e. single traits) is rapid and seems to be often completed within 100 years. Yet, the dimensionality of ecotypic divergence was highest in our oldest systems and only there parallel evolution of unrelated ecotypes was strong enough to overwrite phylogenetic contingency. Moreover, the dimensionality of divergence in different systems varies between trait complexes, suggesting different constraints and evolutionary pathways to their resolution among freshwater systems.

Hierarchical self-assembly of the DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers

Conjugation of functional entities with a specific set of optical, mechanical or biological properties to DNA strands allows engineering of sophisticated DNA-containing architectures. Among various hybrid systems, DNA-grafted polymers occupy an important place in modern materials science. In this contribution we present the non-covalent synthesis and properties of DNA-grafted linear supramolecular polymers (SPs), which are assembled in a controllable manner from short chimeric DNA-pyrene oligomers. The synthetic oligomers consist of two parts: a 10 nucleotides long DNA chain and a covalently attached segment of variable number of phosphodiester-linked pyrenes. The temperature-dependent formation of DNA-grafted SPs is described by a nucleation-elongation mechanism. The high tendency of pyrenes to aggregate in water, leads to the rapid formation of SPs. The core of the assemblies consists of stacked pyrenes. They form a 1D platform, to which the DNA chains are attached. Combined spectroscopic and microscopic studies reveal that the major driving forces of the polymerization are π-stacking of pyrenes and hydrophobic interactions, and DNA pairing contributes to a lesser extent. AFM and TEM experiments demonstrate that the 1D SPs appear as elongated ribbons with a length of several hundred nanometers. They exhibit an apparent helical structure with a pitch-to-pitch distance of 50±15 nm. Since DNA pairing is a highly selective process, the ongoing studies are aimed to utilize DNA-grafted SPs for the programmable arrangement of functional entities. For example, the addition of non-modified complementary DNA strands to the DNA-grafted SPs leads to the cooperative formation of higher-order assemblies. Also, our experiments suggest that the fluorescent pyrene core of 1D ribbons serves as an efficient donor platform for energy transfer applications.

Hierarchical self-assembly of the DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers

Conjugation of functional entities with a specific set of optical, mechanical or biological properties to DNA strands allows engineering of sophisticated DNA-containing architectures. Among various hybrid systems, DNA-grafted polymers occupy an important place in modern materials science. In this contribution we present the non-covalent synthesis and properties of DNA-grafted linear supramolecular polymers (SPs), which are assembled in a controllable manner from short chimeric DNA-pyrene oligomers. The synthetic oligomers consist of two parts: a 10 nucleotides long DNA chain and a covalently attached segment of variable number of phosphodiester-linked pyrenes. The temperature-dependent formation of DNA-grafted SPs is described by a nucleation-elongation mechanism. The high tendency of pyrenes to aggregate in water, leads to the rapid formation of SPs. The core of the assemblies consists of stacked pyrenes. They form a 1D platform, to which the DNA chains are attached. Combined spectroscopic and microscopic studies reveal that the major driving forces of the polymerization are π-stacking of pyrenes and hydrophobic interactions, and DNA pairing contributes to a lesser extent. AFM and TEM experiments demonstrate that the 1D SPs appear as elongated ribbons with a length of several hundred nanometers. They exhibit an apparent helical structure with a pitch-to-pitch distance of 50±15 nm. Since DNA pairing is a highly selective process, the ongoing studies are aimed to utilize DNA-grafted SPs for the programmable arrangement of functional entities. For example, the addition of non-modified complementary DNA strands to the DNA-grafted SPs leads to the cooperative formation of higher-order assemblies. Also, our experiments suggest that the fluorescent pyrene core of 1D ribbons serves as an efficient donor platform for energy transfer applications.

Mobility and Bandwidth Prediction as a Service in Virtualized LTE Systems

Recently telecommunication industry benefits from infrastructure sharing, one of the most fundamental enablers of cloud computing, leading to emergence of the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) concept. The most momentous intents by this approach are the support of on-demand provisioning and elasticity of virtualized mobile network components, based on data traffic load. To realize it, during operation and management procedures, the virtualized services need be triggered in order to scale-up/down or scale-out/in an instance. In this paper we propose an architecture called MOBaaS (Mobility and Bandwidth Availability Prediction as a Service), comprising two algorithms in order to predict user(s) mobility and network link bandwidth availability, that can be implemented in cloud based mobile network structure and can be used as a support service by any other virtualized mobile network services. MOBaaS can provide prediction information in order to generate required triggers for on-demand deploying, provisioning, disposing of virtualized network components. This information can be used for self-adaptation procedures and optimal network function configuration during run-time operation, as well. Through the preliminary experiments with the prototype implementation on the OpenStack platform, we evaluated and confirmed the feasibility and the effectiveness of the prediction algorithms and the proposed architecture.

KLIKK proteases of Tannerella forsythia: putative virulence factors with a unique domain structure.

Comparative genomics of virulent Tannerella forsythia ATCC 43037 and a close health-associated relative, Tannerella BU063, revealed, in the latter, the absence of an entire array of genes encoding putative secretory proteases that possess a nearly identical C-terminal domain (CTD) that ends with a -Lys-Leu-Ile-Lys-Lys motif. This observation suggests that these proteins, referred to as KLIKK proteases, may function as virulence factors. Re-sequencing of the loci of the KLIKK proteases found only six genes grouped in two clusters. All six genes were expressed by T. forsythia in routine culture conditions, although at different levels. More importantly, a transcript of each gene was detected in gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) from periodontitis sites infected with T. forsythia indicating that the proteases are expressed in vivo. In each protein, a protease domain was flanked by a unique N-terminal profragment and a C-terminal extension ending with the CTD. Partially purified recombinant proteases showed variable levels of proteolytic activity in zymography gels and toward protein substrates, including collagen, gelatin, elastin, and casein. Taken together, these results indicate that the pathogenic strain of T. forsythia secretes active proteases capable of degrading an array of host proteins, which likely represents an important pathogenic feature of this bacterium.

Bacillus anthracis Diversity and Geographic Potential across Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad: Further Support of a Novel West African Lineage.

Zoonoses, diseases affecting both humans and animals, can exert tremendous pressures on human and veterinary health systems, particularly in resource limited countries. Anthrax is one such zoonosis of concern and is a disease requiring greater public health attention in Nigeria. Here we describe the genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Nigeria and compare it to Chad, Cameroon and a broader global dataset based on the multiple locus variable number tandem repeat (MLVA-25) genetic typing system. Nigerian B. anthracis isolates had identical MLVA genotypes and could only be resolved by measuring highly mutable single nucleotide repeats (SNRs). The Nigerian MLVA genotype was identical or highly genetically similar to those in the neighboring countries, confirming the strains belong to this unique West African lineage. Interestingly, sequence data from a Nigerian isolate shares the anthrose deficient genotypes previously described for strains in this region, which may be associated with vaccine evasion. Strains in this study were isolated over six decades, indicating a high level of temporal strain stability regionally. Ecological niche models were used to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen for all three countries. We describe a west-east habitat corridor through northern Nigeria extending into Chad and Cameroon. Ecological niche models and genetic results show B. anthracis to be ecologically established in Nigeria. These findings expand our understanding of the global B. anthracis population structure and can guide regional anthrax surveillance and control planning.

The impact of the position effect on the factorial structure of the Culture Fair Test (CFT)

The Culture Fair Test (CFT) is a psychometric test of fluid intelligence consisting of four subtests; Series, Classification, Matrices, and Topographies. The four subtests are only moderately intercorrelated, doubting the notion that they assess the same construct (i.e., fluid intelligence). As an explanation of these low correlations, we investigated the position effect. This effect is assumed to reflect implicit learning during testing. By applying fixed-links modeling to analyze the CFT data of 206 participants, we identified position effects as latent variables in the subtests; Classification, Matrices, and Topographies. These position effects were disentangled from a second set of latent variables representing fluid intelligence inherent in the four subtests. After this separation of position effect and basic fluid intelligence, the latent variables representing basic fluid intelligence in the subtests Series, Matrices, and Topographies could be combined to one common latent variable which was highly correlated with fluid intelligence derived from the subtest Classification (r=.72). Correlations between the three latent variables representing the position effects in the Classification, Matrices, and Topographies subtests ranged from r=.38 to r=.59. The results indicate that all four CFT subtests measure the same construct (i.e., fluid intelligence) but that the position effect confounds the factorial structure

Na+ channel function, regulation, structure, trafficking and sequestration.

This paper is the second of a series of three reviews published in this issue resulting from the University of California Davis Cardiovascular Symposium 2014: Systems approach to understanding cardiac excitation-contraction coupling and arrhythmias: Na(+) channel and Na(+) transport. The goal of the symposium was to bring together experts in the field to discuss points of consensus and controversy on the topic of sodium in the heart. The present review focuses on Na(+) channel function and regulation, Na(+) channel structure and function, and Na(+) channel trafficking, sequestration and complexing.

Strengthening the food systems governance evidence base: Supporting commensurability of research through a systematic review of methods

Governance of food systems is a poorly understood determinant of food security. Much scholarship on food systems governance is non-empirical, while existing research is often case study-based and theoretically and methodologically incommensurable. This frustrates aggregation of evidence and generalisation. We undertook a systematic review of methods used in food systems governance research with a view to identifying a core set of indicators for future research. We gathered literature through a structured consultation and sampling from recent reviews. Indicators were identified and classified according to the levels and sectors they investigate. We found a concentration of indicators in food production at local to national levels and a sparseness in distribution and consumption. Unsurprisingly, many indicators of institutional structure were found, while agency-related indicators are moderately represented. We call for piloting and validation of these indicators and for methodological development to fill gaps identified. These efforts are expected to support a more consolidated future evidence base and eventual meta-analysis.

Can we constrain the interior structure of rocky exoplanets from mass and radius measurements?

Aims. We present an inversion method based on Bayesian analysis to constrain the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets, in the form of chemical composition of the mantle and core size. Specifically, we identify what parts of the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets can be determined from observations of mass, radius, and stellar elemental abundances. Methods. We perform a full probabilistic inverse analysis to formally account for observational and model uncertainties and obtain confidence regions of interior structure models. This enables us to characterize how model variability depends on data and associated uncertainties. Results. We test our method on terrestrial solar system planets and find that our model predictions are consistent with independent estimates. Furthermore, we apply our method to synthetic exoplanets up to 10 Earth masses and up to 1.7 Earth radii, and to exoplanet Kepler-36b. Importantly, the inversion strategy proposed here provides a framework for understanding the level of precision required to characterize the interior of exoplanets. Conclusions. Our main conclusions are (1) observations of mass and radius are sufficient to constrain core size; (2) stellar elemental abundances (Fe, Si, Mg) are principal constraints to reduce degeneracy in interior structure models and to constrain mantle composition; (3) the inherent degeneracy in determining interior structure from mass and radius observations does not only depend on measurement accuracies, but also on the actual size and density of the exoplanet. We argue that precise observations of stellar elemental abundances are central in order to place constraints on planetary bulk composition and to reduce model degeneracy. We provide a general methodology of analyzing interior structures of exoplanets that may help to understand how interior models are distributed among star systems. The methodology we propose is sufficiently general to allow its future extension to more complex internal structures including hydrogen- and water-rich exoplanets.

Matching Social and Ecological Systems in Complex Ocean Fisheries

This paper considers ocean fisheries as complex adaptive systems and addresses the question of how human institutions might be best matched to their structure and function. Ocean ecosystems operate at multiple scales, but the management of fisheries tends to be aimed at a single species considered at a single broad scale. The paper argues that this mismatch of ecological and management scale makes it difficult to address the fine-scale aspects of ocean ecosystems, and leads to fishing rights and strategies that tend to erode the underlying structure of populations and the system itself. A successful transition to ecosystem-based management will require institutions better able to economize on the acquisition of feedback about the impact of human activities. This is likely to be achieved by multiscale institutions whose organization mirrors the spatial organization of the ecosystem and whose communications occur through a polycentric network. Better feedback will allow the exploration of fine-scale science and the employment of fine-scale fishing restraints, better adapted to the behavior of fish and habitat. The scale and scope of individual fishing rights also needs to be congruent with the spatial structure of the ecosystem. Place-based rights can be expected to create a longer private planning horizon as well as stronger incentives for the private and public acquisition of system relevant knowledge.