Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separately

A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.

Wide QRS-complex tachycardia with variable VA-conduction: what is the mechanism?

We describe the case of a 16-year-old woman with a surgically corrected tetralogy of Fallot presenting with recurrent wide-QRS-complex tachycardia. The tachycardia could be induced and terminated with ventricular stimulation only. QRS morphology during sinus rhythm and tachycardia was identical and variable VA-conduction was observed. Mapping of the tachycardia showed that variations of HH intervals preceded VV intervals. Therefore, a mechanism involving re-entry within the bundle branches was suggested. However, detailed mapping showed cranial to caudal depolarization of the His bundle, leading to the diagnosis of atrioventricular node re-entrant tachycardia. The tachycardia was abolished by radiofrequency catheter ablation of the slow AV nodal pathway. We conclude that variable VA conduction can occur in patients with atrioventricular node re-entrant tachycardia. The atrial tissue is not always an integral part of the re-entrant circuit.

Precise pose recovery of distal locking holes from single calibrated fluoroscopic image via a novel variable decomposition approach

This paper presents a novel variable decomposition approach for pose recovery of the distal locking holes using single calibrated fluoroscopic image. The problem is formulated as a model-based optimal fitting process, where the control variables are decomposed into two sets: (a) the angle between the nail axis and its projection on the imaging plane, and (b) the translation and rotation of the geometrical model of the distal locking hole around the nail axis. By using an iterative algorithm to find the optimal values of the latter set of variables for any given value of the former variable, we reduce the multiple-dimensional model-based optimal fitting problem to a one-dimensional search along a finite interval. We report the results of our in vitro experiments, which demonstrate that the accuracy of our approach is adequate for successful distal locking of intramedullary nails.

The influence of dosing schedules and cerebrospinal fluid bactericidal activity on the therapy of bacterial meningitis

Bacterial meningitis represents an infection in an area of impaired host defence. Optimal therapy of meningitis requires attaining bactericidal activity within cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Studies in experimental animal models of meningitis suggest that maximal rates of bacterial killing in vivo and optimal cure rates are achieved when CSF antibiotic concentrations exceed the MBC of the test strain by greater than or equal to ten-fold. The results of clinical trials support this conclusion. In addition, a variable post-antibiotic effect occurs in-vivo after short periods of exposure to antimicrobial activity, thus maintaining therapeutic efficacy with intermittent dosage regimens. These basic principles of therapy are outlined in this review and serve as a basis for rational treatment regimens. For most antibiotics, the optimal dose, dosage interval, and duration of therapy for bacterial meningitis remain to be established.

Recurrent rearrangements of chromosome 1q21.1 and variable pediatric phenotypes

BACKGROUND: Duplications and deletions in the human genome can cause disease or predispose persons to disease. Advances in technologies to detect these changes allow for the routine identification of submicroscopic imbalances in large numbers of patients. METHODS: We tested for the presence of microdeletions and microduplications at a specific region of chromosome 1q21.1 in two groups of patients with unexplained mental retardation, autism, or congenital anomalies and in unaffected persons. RESULTS: We identified 25 persons with a recurrent 1.35-Mb deletion within 1q21.1 from screening 5218 patients. The microdeletions had arisen de novo in eight patients, were inherited from a mildly affected parent in three patients, were inherited from an apparently unaffected parent in six patients, and were of unknown inheritance in eight patients. The deletion was absent in a series of 4737 control persons (P=1.1x10(-7)). We found considerable variability in the level of phenotypic expression of the microdeletion; phenotypes included mild-to-moderate mental retardation, microcephaly, cardiac abnormalities, and cataracts. The reciprocal duplication was enriched in nine children with mental retardation or autism spectrum disorder and other variable features (P=0.02). We identified three deletions and three duplications of the 1q21.1 region in an independent sample of 788 patients with mental retardation and congenital anomalies. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified recurrent molecular lesions that elude syndromic classification and whose disease manifestations must be considered in a broader context of development as opposed to being assigned to a specific disease. Clinical diagnosis in patients with these lesions may be most readily achieved on the basis of genotype rather than phenotype.

Effect of constant and variable domain glycosylation on pharmacokinetics of therapeutic antibodies in mice

Previous studies on the effect of glycosylation on the elimination rate of antibodies have produced conflicting results. Here, we performed pharmacokinetic studies in mice with two preparations of a monoclonal IgG1 antibody enriched for complex type or high mannose type oligosaccharides at the Fc glycosylation site. No significant difference in the serum half-life was found between the two antibody glycoforms, nor was any difference observed in the serum half-lives of different complex type glycoforms. To evaluate the influence of glycosylation within the variable domain, a second monoclonal antibody, glycosylated in both the Fc and Fv domains, was separated into fractions containing different amounts of Fv-associated sialic acid and administered to mice. Again, no significant difference was found in the clearance rates of variants carrying different amounts of Fv-associated sialic acid or lacking Fv-glycosylation. These results suggest that glycosylation has little or no impact on the pharmacokinetic behavior of these two monoclonal antibodies in mice.

Modeling and classifying variable width riparian zones utilizing digital elevation models, flood height data, digital soil data and national wetlands inventory : a new approach for riparian zone delineation

Riparian zones are dynamic, transitional ecosystems between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems with well defined vegetation and soil characteristics. Development of an all-encompassing definition for riparian ecotones, because of their high variability, is challenging. However, there are two primary factors that all riparian ecotones are dependent on: the watercourse and its associated floodplain. Previous approaches to riparian boundary delineation have utilized fixed width buffers, but this methodology has proven to be inadequate as it only takes the watercourse into consideration and ignores critical geomorphology, associated vegetation and soil characteristics. Our approach offers advantages over other previously used methods by utilizing: the geospatial modeling capabilities of ArcMap GIS; a better sampling technique along the water course that can distinguish the 50-year flood plain, which is the optimal hydrologic descriptor of riparian ecotones; the Soil Survey Database (SSURGO) and National Wetland Inventory (NWI) databases to distinguish contiguous areas beyond the 50-year plain; and land use/cover characteristics associated with the delineated riparian zones. The model utilizes spatial data readily available from Federal and State agencies and geospatial clearinghouses. An accuracy assessment was performed to assess the impact of varying the 50-year flood height, changing the DEM spatial resolution (1, 3, 5 and 10m), and positional inaccuracies with the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) streams layer on the boundary placement of the delineated variable width riparian ecotones area. The result of this study is a robust and automated GIS based model attached to ESRI ArcMap software to delineate and classify variable-width riparian ecotones.

Implementation of a Variable Compression Ratio Mechanism in a Four Cylinder Engine

Ever since the invention of the internal combustion engine, generating more power and achieving better efficiency has been a major goal for the designers. Variable compression ratio technology is way to achieve those goals. This paper will discuss the method of varying the compression ratio of an inline 4-cylinder engine through the use of a 4-bar linkage and gear mechanism. This mechanism was proven to easily vary the compression ratio of the engine and shows promise of becoming a technology used for future engine designer.

DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE COMBUSTION MODEL OF A SPARK IGNITED ENGINE WITH GASOLINE DIRECT INJECTION, VARIABLE VALVE TIMING, DURATION AND LIFT TECHNOLOGIES

There is a need by engine manufactures for computationally efficient and accurate predictive combustion modeling tools for integration in engine simulation software for the assessment of combustion system hardware designs and early development of engine calibrations. This thesis discusses the process for the development and validation of a combustion modeling tool for Gasoline Direct Injected Spark Ignited Engine with variable valve timing, lift and duration valvetrain hardware from experimental data. Data was correlated and regressed from accepted methods for calculating the turbulent flow and flame propagation characteristics for an internal combustion engine. A non-linear regression modeling method was utilized to develop a combustion model to determine the fuel mass burn rate at multiple points during the combustion process. The computational fluid dynamic software Converge ©, was used to simulate and correlate the 3-D combustion system, port and piston geometry to the turbulent flow development within the cylinder to properly predict the experimental data turbulent flow parameters through the intake, compression and expansion processes. The engine simulation software GT-Power © is then used to determine the 1-D flow characteristics of the engine hardware being tested to correlate the regressed combustion modeling tool to experimental data to determine accuracy. The results of the combustion modeling tool show accurate trends capturing the combustion sensitivities to turbulent flow, thermodynamic and internal residual effects with changes in intake and exhaust valve timing, lift and duration.

Space trajectories optimization using variable-chromosome-length genetic algorithms

The problem of optimal design of a multi-gravity-assist space trajectories, with free number of deep space maneuvers (MGADSM) poses multi-modal cost functions. In the general form of the problem, the number of design variables is solution dependent. To handle global optimization problems where the number of design variables varies from one solution to another, two novel genetic-based techniques are introduced: hidden genes genetic algorithm (HGGA) and dynamic-size multiple population genetic algorithm (DSMPGA). In HGGA, a fixed length for the design variables is assigned for all solutions. Independent variables of each solution are divided into effective and ineffective (hidden) genes. Hidden genes are excluded in cost function evaluations. Full-length solutions undergo standard genetic operations. In DSMPGA, sub-populations of fixed size design spaces are randomly initialized. Standard genetic operations are carried out for a stage of generations. A new population is then created by reproduction from all members based on their relative fitness. The resulting sub-populations have different sizes from their initial sizes. The process repeats, leading to increasing the size of sub-populations of more fit solutions. Both techniques are applied to several MGADSM problems. They have the capability to determine the number of swing-bys, the planets to swing by, launch and arrival dates, and the number of deep space maneuvers as well as their locations, magnitudes, and directions in an optimal sense. The results show that solutions obtained using the developed tools match known solutions for complex case studies. The HGGA is also used to obtain the asteroids sequence and the mission structure in the global trajectory optimization competition (GTOC) problem. As an application of GA optimization to Earth orbits, the problem of visiting a set of ground sites within a constrained time frame is solved. The J2 perturbation and zonal coverage are considered to design repeated Sun-synchronous orbits. Finally, a new set of orbits, the repeated shadow track orbits (RSTO), is introduced. The orbit parameters are optimized such that the shadow of a spacecraft on the Earth visits the same locations periodically every desired number of days.

COMPUTATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE AEROELASTIC DYNAMICS OF A WIND TURBINE BLADE WITH VARIABLE-SPEED STALL CONTROL

The accuracy of simulating the aerodynamics and structural properties of the blades is crucial in the wind-turbine technology. Hence the models used to implement these features need to be very precise and their level of detailing needs to be high. With the variety of blade designs being developed the models should be versatile enough to adapt to the changes required by every design. We are going to implement a combination of numerical models which are associated with the structural and the aerodynamic part of the simulation using the computational power of a parallel HPC cluster. The structural part models the heterogeneous internal structure of the beam based on a novel implementation of the Generalized Timoshenko Beam Model Technique.. Using this technique the 3-D structure of the blade is reduced into a 1-D beam which is asymptotically equivalent. This reduces the computational cost of the model without compromising its accuracy. This structural model interacts with the Flow model which is a modified version of the Blade Element Momentum Theory. The modified version of the BEM accounts for the large deflections of the blade and also considers the pre-defined structure of the blade. The coning, sweeping of the blade, tilt of the nacelle and the twist of the sections along the blade length are all computed by the model which aren’t considered in the classical BEM theory. Each of these two models provides feedback to the other and the interactive computations lead to more accurate outputs. We successfully implemented the computational models to analyze and simulate the structural and aerodynamic aspects of the blades. The interactive nature of these models and their ability to recompute data using the feedback from each other makes this code more efficient than the commercial codes available. In this thesis we start off with the verification of these models by testing it on the well-known benchmark blade for the NREL-5MW Reference Wind Turbine, an alternative fixed-speed stall-controlled blade design proposed by Delft University, and a novel alternative design that we proposed for a variable-speed stall-controlled turbine, which offers the potential for more uniform power control and improved annual energy production.. To optimize the power output of the stall-controlled blade we modify the existing designs and study their behavior using the aforementioned aero elastic model.