Stereological estimation of particle shape and orientation from volume tensors

In the present paper, we describe new robust methods of estimating cell shape and orientation in 3D from sections. The descriptors of 3D cell shape and orientation are based on volume tensors which are used to construct an ellipsoid, the Miles ellipsoid, approximating the average cell shape and orientation in 3D. The estimators of volume tensors are based on observations in several optical planes through sampled cells. This type of geometric sampling design is known as the optical rotator. The statistical behaviour of the estimator of the Miles ellipsoid is studied under a flexible model for 3D cell shape and orientation. In a simulation study, the lengths of the axes of the Miles ellipsoid can be estimated with CVs of about 2% if 100 cells are sampled. Finally, we illustrate the use of the developed methods in an example, involving neurons in the medial prefrontal cortex of rat.

Associations Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Inflammation, and Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis Among Smokers

INTRODUCTION The high risk of cardiovascular events in smokers requires adequate control of other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) to curtail atherosclerosis progression. However, it is unclear which CVRFs have the most influence on atherosclerosis progression in smokers. METHODS In 260 smokers aged 40-70 included in a smoking cessation trial, we analyzed the association between traditional CVRFs, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), smoking cessation and 3-year progression of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT, assessed by repeated ultrasound measurements) in a longitudinal multivariate model. RESULTS Participants (mean age 52 years, 47% women) had a mean smoking duration of 32 years with a median daily consumption of 20 cigarettes. Baseline CIMT was 1185 μm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1082-1287) and increased by 93 μm (95% CI: 25-161) and 108 μm (95% CI: 33-183) after 1 and 3 years, respectively. Age, male sex, daily cigarette consumption, systolic blood pressure (SBP), but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, were independently associated with baseline CIMT (all P ≤ .05). Baseline SBP, but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, was associated with 3-year atherosclerosis progression (P = .01 at 3 years). The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. We found an increase of 26 μm per each 10-mmHg raise in SBP at 1 year and an increase of 39 μm per each 10 mmHg raise in SBP at 3 years. Due to insufficient statistical power, we could not exclude an effect of smoking abstinence on CIMT progression. CONCLUSION Control of blood pressure may be an important factor to limit atherosclerosis progression in smokers, besides support for smoking cessation. IMPLICATIONS Among 260 smokers aged 40-70 years with a mean smoking duration of 32 years, baseline SBP was associated with atherosclerosis progression over 3 years, as measured by CIMT (P = .01 at 3 years), independently of smoking variables and other CVRFs. The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. Our findings emphasize the importance of focusing not only on smoking cessation among smokers, but to simultaneously control other CVRFs, particularly blood pressure, in order to prevent future cardiovascular disease.

Treatment planning aspects and Monte Carlo methods in proton therapy

Over the last years, the interest in proton radiotherapy is rapidly increasing. Protons provide superior physical properties compared with conventional radiotherapy using photons. These properties result in depth dose curves with a large dose peak at the end of the proton track and the finite proton range allows sparing the distally located healthy tissue. These properties offer an increased flexibility in proton radiotherapy, but also increase the demand in accurate dose estimations. To carry out accurate dose calculations, first an accurate and detailed characterization of the physical proton beam exiting the treatment head is necessary for both currently available delivery techniques: scattered and scanned proton beams. Since Monte Carlo (MC) methods follow the particle track simulating the interactions from first principles, this technique is perfectly suited to accurately model the treatment head. Nevertheless, careful validation of these MC models is necessary. While for the dose estimation pencil beam algorithms provide the advantage of fast computations, they are limited in accuracy. In contrast, MC dose calculation algorithms overcome these limitations and due to recent improvements in efficiency, these algorithms are expected to improve the accuracy of the calculated dose distributions and to be introduced in clinical routine in the near future.

Using GIS methods to assess the occurrence of neural tube defect births by residential proximity at conception to hazardous waste sites

In the United States, approximately 4,000 pregnancies each year are affected by the two most common birth defects, spina bifida and anencephaly. Studies have shown that exposure to environmental chemicals before and after conception may adversely affect reproduction by inducing cell death or dysfunction, which leads to infertility, fetal loss, lowered weight at birth, or birth anomalies in the offspring. The objective of the study was to evaluate the relationship between Neural Tube Defect births and residence at conception in proximity to hazardous waste sites in the Texas-Mexico border region between 1993 and 2000. ^ The study design was a nested matched case-control and utilized secondary data from a project, “The role of chemical and biological factors in the etiology of neural tube birth defects births along the Texas-Mexico Border” (Irina Cech, Principal Investigator). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) database methods were used to compare Neural Tube Defects cases to controls on status of conception residence occurring within a one-mile radius from hazardous waste sites, as compared to conception residence further away. Information on the exposures was obtained from the OnTarget Database and Environment Protection Agency website. Conditional logistic regression was used for the matched case-control study to investigate the relationship between an outcome of being a case or a control and proximity to hazardous waste sites. ^ The result of the study showed a 36 percent non-significant increased risk of having an NTD birth associated with maternal proximity to abandoned hazardous waste sites (95% CI = 0.62–3.02). In addition, there was a 24% non-significant elevated risk of having an NTD birth when living in proximity to air pollutant sites than when living further away (95% CI = 0.67–2.32). Although this study did not find statistically significant associations, it will expand on the existing knowledge of the relationship between NTD and proximity to hazardous waste sites. ^

Obesity and risk of multiple myeloma: A case-control study

Introduction. Several studies have reported a positive association of body mass index (BMI) with multiple myeloma; however, the period of adulthood where BMI is most important remains unclear. In addition, it is well known that body fat is associated with both sex-steroid hormone storage and with increasing insulin levels; therefore, it was hypothesized that the association between obesity and multiple myeloma may be attributed to increased aromatization of androgen in adipose tissue. Objective. The overall objective of this case-control study was to determine whether multiple myeloma cases had higher BMI and greater adult weight gain relative to healthy controls. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that hormone replacement therapy use among women will further increase the association between BMI and risk of multiple myeloma. This study used data from a pilot case-control study at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC), entitled Etiology of multiple myeloma, directed by Dr. Sara Strom and Dr. Sergio Giralt. Methods. The pilot study recruited a total of 122 cases of histopathologically confirmed multiple myeloma from MDACC. Controls (n=183) were selected from a database of random digit dialing controls accrued in the Department of Epidemiology at MDACC and were frequency matched to the cases on age (±5 years), gender, and race/ethnicity. Demographic and risk factor information were obtained from all participants who completed a self-administered questionnaire. Items included in the questionnaire include demographic information, height and weight at age 25, 40 and current/diagnosis, medical history, family history of cancer, smoking and alcohol use. Statistical analysis. Initial descriptive analysis included Student's t-test and Pearson's chi-squared tests. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to quantify the association between the variables of interest and multiple myeloma. A multivariable model will be developed using unconditional logistic regression. Results. MM cases were 1.79 times (95% CI=0.99-3.32) more likely to have been overweight or obese (BMI > 25 kg/m2) at age 25 relative to healthy controls after controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicty, education and family history of cancer. Being overweight or obese at age 40 was not significantly associated with mutliple myeloma risk (OR=1.42, 95% CI=0.86-2.34) nor was being overweight or obses at diagnosis (OR=1.43, 95% CI=0.78, 2.63). We observed a statistically significant 2-fold increased odds of multiple myeloma in individuals who gained more than 4.7 kg during between 25 and 40 years (OR=1.97, 95% CI=1.15-3.39). When assessing HRT as a modifier of the BMI and multiple myeloma association among women (N=123), no association between obesity and MM status was observed among women who have never used HRT (OR=0.60, 95% CI=0.23-1.61; n=73). Yet among women who have ever used HRT (n=50), being overweight or obese was associated with an increase in MM risk (OR=2. 93, 95% CI=0.81-10.6) after adjusting for age; however, the association was not statistically significant. Significance. This study provides further evidence that increased BMI increases the risk of multiple myeloma. Furthermore, among women, HRT use may modify risk of disease. ^

Prevalence and risk factors of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in critically-ill hospitalized patients in a tertiary care center in Houston, Texas: An active surveillance pilot project

Objective. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of MRSA colonization in adult patients admitted to intensive care units at an urban tertiary care hospital in Houston, Texas and to evaluate the risk factors associated with colonization during a three month active-screening pilot project. Design. This study used secondary data from a small cross-sectional pilot project. Methods. All patients admitted to the seven specialty ICUs were screened for MRSA by nasal culture. Results were obtained utilizing the BD GeneOhm™ IDI-MRSA assay in vitro diagnostic test, for rapid MRSA detection. Statistical analysis was performed using the STATA 10, Epi Info, and JavaStat. Results . 1283/1531 (83.4%) adult ICU admissions were screened for nasal MRSA colonization. Of those screened, demographic and risk factor data was available for 1260/1283 (98.2%). Unresolved results were obtained for 73 patients. Therefore, a total of 1187/1531 (77.5%) of all ICU admissions during the three month study period are described in this analysis. Risk factors associated with colonization included the following: hospitalization within the last six months (odds ratio 2.48 [95% CI, 1.70-3.63], p=0.000), hospitalization within the last 12 months, (odds ratio 2.27 [95% CI, 1.57-3.80], p=0.000), and having diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 1.63 [95% CI, 1.14-2.32], p=0.007). Conclusion. Based on the literature, the prevalence of MRSA for this population is typical of other prevalence studies conducted in the United States and coincides with the continual increasing trend of MRSA colonization. Significant risk factors were similar to those found in previous studies. Overall, the active surveillance screening pilot project has provided valuable information on a population not widely addressed. These findings can aid in future interventions for the education, control, prevention, and treatment of MRSA. ^

Hormonal exposure and risk of pancreatic cancer in the United States

Background. In the United States, the incidence of pancreatic cancer has increased; more than 37,000 new cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed in the year 2007. Overall, the five-year survival rate is about 5% and pancreatic cancer ranks the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality among men and women. Despite the observed progress in cancer diagnosis and treatment, pancreatic cancer remains an unresolved significant public health problem in the United States. Familial pancreatic cancer has been confirmed to be responsible for approximately 10% of pancreatic cancer cases. However, 90% are still without known inherited predisposition. Until now, the role of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) among women with pancreatic cancer remain unclear. We examined the association of exogenous hormonal uses in US women with risk of pancreatic cancer. ^ Methods. This was an active hospital-based case-control study which is conducted at the department of gastrointestinal medical oncology in The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Between January 2005 and December 2007, a total of 287 women with pathologically confirmed pancreatic cancer (cases) and 287 healthy women (controls) were included in this investigation. Both cases and controls were frequency matched by age and race. Information about the use of hormonal contraceptives and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) preparations as well as information about several risk factors of pancreatic cancer were collected by personal interview. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in this study to analyze the data. ^ Results. We found a statistical significant protective effect for use of exogenous hormone preparations on pancreatic cancer development (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2–0.8). In addition, a 40% reduction in pancreatic cancer risk was observed among women who ever used any of the contraceptive methods including oral contraceptive pills (AOR, 6; 95% CI, 0.4–0.9). ^ Conclusions. Consistent with previous studies, the use of exogenous hormone preparations including oral contraceptive pills may confers a protective effect for pancreatic cancer development. More studies are warranted to explore for the underlying mechanism of such protection.^

Prevalence and risk factors for polyomavirus reactivation in solid-organ transplantation

Background. Polyomavirus reactivation is common in solid-organ transplant recipients who are given immunosuppressive medications as standard treatment of care. Previous studies have shown that polyomavirus infection can lead to allograft failure in as many as 45% of the affected patients. Hypothesis. Ubiquitous polyomaviruses when reactivated by post-transplant immunosuppressive medications may lead to impaired renal function and possibly lower survival prospects. Study Overview. Secondary analysis of data was conducted on a prospective longitudinal study of subjects who were at least 18 years of age and were recipients of liver and/or kidney transplant at Mayo Clinic Scottsdale, Arizona. Methods. DNA extractions of blinded urine and blood specimens of transplant patients collected at Mayo Clinic during routine transplant patient visits were performed at Baylor College of Medicine using Qiagen kits. Virologic assays included testing DNA samples for specific polyomavirus sequences using QPCR technology. De-identified demographic and clinical patient data were merged with laboratory data and statistical analysis was performed using Stata10. Results. 76 patients enrolled in the study were followed for 3.9 years post transplantation. The prevalence of BK virus and JC virus urinary excretion was 30% and 28%. Significant association was observed between JC virus excretion and kidney as the transplanted organ (P = 0.039, Pearson Chi-square test). The median urinary JCV viral loads were two logs higher than those of BKV. Patients that excreted both BKV and JCV appeared to have the worst renal function with a mean creatinine clearance value of 71.6 millimeters per minute. A survival disadvantage was observed for dual shedders of BKV and JCV, log-rank statistics, p = 0.09; 2/5 dual-shedders expired during the study period. Liver transplant and male sex were determined to be potential risk factors for JC virus activation in renal and liver transplant recipients. All patients tested negative for SV40 and no association was observed between polyomavirus excretion and type of immunosuppressive medication (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, cyclosporine and sirolimus). Conclusions. Polyomavirus reactivation was common after solid-organ transplantation and may be associated with impaired renal function. Male sex and JCV infection may be potential risk factors for viral reactivation; findings should be confirmed in larger studies.^

Association of part-time employment and sexual risk-taking behaviors among middle school students

Background. Previous research shows inconsistent results as to the association between part-time employment and sexual behavior among younger teens. Studies of older teens cannot be generalized to younger teens because of the wide differences in types of work performed, nature of work environments, and work intensity. Objective. Examine the relationship between part-time employment and sexual behavior in a cross-sectional sample of public middle school students in Houston, Texas. Methods . The study presents a secondary analysis of data from the It’s Your Game…Keep it Real baseline data collection (11/2004–1/2005). It’s Your Game… is an intervention program for middle school students designed to prevent Sexually Transmitted Infections. Statistical analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between part-time employment and vaginal intercourse: (a) ever had sex; and (b) current sexual activity. Results. Overall, 13.2% of students worked for pay; male students were 1.5 times as likely as females to be working. Of all the students, 11.0% had had sexual intercourse; students who worked were 3 times more likely to be sexually experienced than those who did not. Among students who were sexually experienced, 67.0% were currently sexually active. After adjusting for the other covariates, Hispanic students were almost 3.6 times more likely to report current sexual activity compared to students in other racial/ethnic groups. In univariate analysis, students who worked 1-5 hrs/week were more likely to be sexually experienced than those not currently employed, and the likelihood increased with number of hours worked. There is a similar pattern in the multivariate model, but the odds ratios are too close for the evidence to be more than suggestive. Of sexually experienced students, students working 1-5 hrs/week were 2.7 times more likely to report current sexual intercourse than those not working; those working >5 hrs/week were 4.7 times more likely. The multivariate model showed a similar increase in likelihood, and adjustment for covariates increased these associations: students who worked 1-5 hrs/week were 3.6 times more likely to report current sexual intercourse, and students who worked >5 hrs/week were 4.5 times more likely, than students not currently employed.^

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Association of exogenous hormonal intake with the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma in women

Background. Primary liver cancer, the majority of which is hepatocellular carcinoma, is the third most common cause of mortality from cancer. It has one of the worst prognosis outcomes and an overall 5-year survival of only 5-6%. Hepatocellular carcinoma has been shown to have wide variations in geographic distribution and there is a marked difference in the incidence between different races and gender. Previously low-rate countries, including the US, have shown to have doubled the incidence of HCC during the past two decades. Even though the incidence of HCC is higher in males as compared to females, female hormones, especially estrogens have been postulated to have a role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma on a molecular level. Despite the frequent usage of oral contraceptive pills (OCP) and previously, hormone replacement therapy (HRT), their role on HCC development has not been studied thoroughly. We aim to examine the association between exogenous hormone intake (oral contraceptives and post-menopausal hormone replacement therapy) and the development of HCC. Methods. This study is part of an ongoing hospital-based case-control study which is conducted at the Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. From January 2005 up to January 2008, a total of 77 women with pathologically confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (cases) and 277 healthy women (controls) were included in the investigation. Information about the use of hormonal contraceptives, hormone replacement therapy and risk factors of hepatocellular cancer was collected by personal interview. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to estimate the crude odds ratios (OR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR). Results. We found statistically significant protective effect for the use of HRT on the development of HCC, AOR=0.42 (95% CI, 0.21, 0.81). The significance was observed for estrogen replacement, AOR=0.43 (95% CI, 0.22, 0.83) and not for progesterone replacement, AOR=0.49 (95% CI, 0.10, 2.35). On the other hand, any hormonal contraceptive use, which encompasses oral contraceptive pills, implants and injections, did not show a statistical significance either in the crude OR=0.58 (95% CI, 0.33, 1.01) or AOR=0.56 (95% CI 0.26, 1.18). Conclusions. As corroborated by previous studies, HRT confers 58% HCC risk reduction among American women. The more important question of the association between hormonal contraceptives and HCC remains controversial. Further studies are warranted to explore the mechanism of the protective effect of HRT and the relationship between hormonal contraception and HCC.^

Performance tiers: Implementing comparative effectiveness analysis in the health care setting through operations research and spatial methods

This dissertation develops and tests a comparative effectiveness methodology utilizing a novel approach to the application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in health studies. The concept of performance tiers (PerT) is introduced as terminology to express a relative risk class for individuals within a peer group and the PerT calculation is implemented with operations research (DEA) and spatial algorithms. The analysis results in the discrimination of the individual data observations into a relative risk classification by the DEA-PerT methodology. The performance of two distance measures, kNN (k-nearest neighbor) and Mahalanobis, was subsequently tested to classify new entrants into the appropriate tier. The methods were applied to subject data for the 14 year old cohort in the Project HeartBeat! study.^ The concepts presented herein represent a paradigm shift in the potential for public health applications to identify and respond to individual health status. The resultant classification scheme provides descriptive, and potentially prescriptive, guidance to assess and implement treatments and strategies to improve the delivery and performance of health systems. ^

Secondary data analysis of lead screening compliance in high-risk children

Introduction. Despite the ban of lead-containing gasoline and paint, childhood lead poisoning remains a public health issue. Furthermore, a Medicaid-eligible child is 8 times more likely to have an elevated blood lead level (EBLL) than a non-Medicaid child, which is the primary reason for the early detection lead screening mandate for ages 12 and 24 months among the Medicaid population. Based on field observations, there was evidence that suggested a screening compliance issue. Objective. The purpose of this study was to analyze blood lead screening compliance in previously lead poisoned Medicaid children and test for an association between timely lead screening and timely childhood immunizations. The mean months between follow-up tests were also examined for a significant difference between the non-compliant and compliant lead screened children. Methods. Access to the surveillance data of all childhood lead poisoned cases in Bexar County was granted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District. A database was constructed and analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression methods and non-parametric tests. Lead screening at 12 months of age was analyzed separately from lead screening at 24 months. The small portion of the population who were also related were included in one analysis and removed from a second analysis to check for significance. Gender, ethnicity, age of home, and having a sibling with an EBLL were ruled out as confounders for the association tests but ethnicity and age of home were adjusted in the nonparametric tests. Results. There was a strong significant association between lead screening compliance at 12 months and childhood immunization compliance, with or without including related children (p<0.00). However, there was no significant association between the two variables at the age of 24 months. Furthermore, there was no significant difference between the median of the mean months of follow-up blood tests among the non-compliant and compliant lead screened population for at the 12 month screening group but there was a significant difference at the 24 month screening group (p<0.01). Discussion. Descriptive statistics showed that 61% and 56% of the previously lead poisoned Medicaid population did not receive their 12 and 24 month mandated lead screening on time, respectively. This suggests that their elevated blood lead level may have been diagnosed earlier in their childhood. Furthermore, a child who is compliant with their lead screening at 12 months of age is 2.36 times more likely to also receive their childhood immunizations on time compared to a child who was not compliant with their 12 month screening. Even though there was no statistical significant association found for the 24 month group, the public health significance of a screening compliance issue is no less important. The Texas Medicaid program needs to enforce lead screening compliance because it is evident that there has been no monitoring system in place. Further recommendations include a need for an increased focus on parental education and the importance of taking their children for wellness exams on time.^

HPV vaccine coverage in Texas counties: An application of multilevel, small area estimation

Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF DRACUNCULUS MEDINENSIS (GUINEA WORM DISEASE) AND SUGGESTED METHODS FOR CONTROL, IBARAPA, NIGERIA, 1982 (AFRICA)

A population-based cross-sectional survey of socio-environmental factors associated with the prevalence of Dracunculus medinensis (guinea worm disease) was conducted in Idere, a rural agricultural community in Ibarapa, Oyo state, Nigeria, during 1982.^ The epidemiologic data were collected by household interview of all 501 households. The environmental data were collected by analysis of water samples collected from all domestic water sources and rainfall records.^ The specific objectives of this research were to: (a) Describe the prevalence of guinea worm disease in Idere during 1982 by age, sex, area of residence, drinking water source, religion and weekly amount of money spent by the household to collect potable drinking water. (b) Compare the characteristics of cases with non-cases of guinea worm in order to identify factors associated with high risk of infection. (c) Investigate domestic water sources for the distribution of Cyclops. (d) Determine the extent of potable water shortage with a view to identifying factors responsible for such shortage in the community. (e) Describe the effects of guinea worm on school attendance during 1980/1982 school years by class and location of school from piped water supply.^ The findings of this research indicate that during 1982, 31.8 percent of Idere's 6,527 residents experienced guinea worm infection, with higher prevalence of infection recorded in males in their most productive years and females in their teenage years. The role of sex and age to risk of higher infection rate was explained in the context of water related exposure and water intake due to dehydration from physical occupational actitives of subgroups.^ Potable water available to residents was considerably below the minimum recommended by WHO for tropical climates, with sixty-eight percent of water needs of the residents coming from unprotected surface water which harbour Cyclops, the obligatory intermediate host of Dracunculus medinensis. An association was found between periods of relative high density of Cyclops in domestic water and rainfall.^ Impact of guinea worm infection on educational activities was considerable and its implications were discussed, including the implications of the research findings in relation to control of guinea worm disease in Ibarapa. ^