The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

The Masters in Teaching and Learning (MTL): a retrospective, intrinsic case study of the process of policy into practice and its impact on teacher participants

The research reported here is a retrospective case study of the recent (2010) introduction of the Masters in Teaching and Learning (MTL) as a post-graduate level programme of professional development for teachers. It contributes to the debate and research over the past two decades about the impact of post-graduate professional development and appropriate ways of delivering it. The study is located within an extensive body of literature dealing with the importance of the teaching profession with regard to the success of schools and pupils and the impact of professional development on teaching quality and of teaching quality on attainment. A further relevant context is the ongoing tension between the teaching profession and academics on the one hand and government and political actors on the other, in respect of the approaches to professional development and to the control of educational processes. The research questions which inform the study deal with the perspectives of various participants – policy makers, programme directors, coaches and teachers studying for the MTL – on the extent to which the MTL is likely to have an ameliorative effect on teaching and pupil attainment, their experiences of the process of policy development and their experiences as course participants. The study adopts a case study approach which involves elite interviews with those responsible for the development and implementation of the MTL, questionnaires completed by MTL course participants and a comparison group taking a conventional MA and in depth interviews with participants and coaches. The results revealed tensions and difficulties associated with the development of the MTL including uneasy relationships between HE institutions and government agencies, ideas about ‘producer capture’, the relevance of the MBA model and concern over the role of coaches. However, while acknowledging various difficulties and some misconceived expectations they viewed its potential to meet its expressed aims positively, given time. Course participants were positive about their experience of the MTL and felt that it had contributed to many aspects of their professional development. Most saw it as a positive experience despite the variable quality of support from their schools, particularly in the form of the school-based coach the concept of which had been heralded as the bellwether of the MTL. It was striking that the responses of the MTL participants were very similar to those of teachers taking a conventional MA. A finding which would repay further investigation is that while the great majority of course participants felt that the MTL (and the MA) had contributed to their becoming more effective teachers they were much less confident that it had contributed to increased pupil attainment.

Are mortgage lenders guilty of the housing bubble? A UK perspective

Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking.

PODOCARPUS SP.PL. REFUGIA IN BRAZIL`S ATLANTIC FOREST: ANALYSING THE PAST TO IMPROVE FUTURE PROTECTION

The Atlantic rainforest has the second highest biodiversity in Brazil. It has been shrinking rapidly in area as a result of intensive deforestation, and only 7% of the original cover now remains, as isolated patches or in ecological reserves. In order to obtain new information on the distribution of the Atlantic rainforest during the Quaternary, we examined herbarium data to locate relevant populations and extracted DNA from fresh leaves from 26 populations. The present-day distribution of endemic Podocarpus populations shows that they are widely dispersed across eastern Brazil, and that the expansion of Podocarpus recorded in single Amazonian pollen records may have originated from either western or eastern populations. Genetic analysis enabled us to determine the boundaries of their regional expansion: northern and central populations of P. sellowii appeared between 5 degrees and 15 degrees S some 16,000 years ago; populations of P lambertii or sellowii have appeared between 15 degrees and 23 degrees S at different times since the last glaciation at least; and P lambertii appeared between 23 degrees and 30 degrees S during the recent expansion of Araucaria forests. The combination of botanical, pollen, and molecular analyses proved to be a rapid means of inferring distribution boundaries for sparse populations and their regional evolution within tropical ecosystems. Today the rainforest refugia we identified have become hotspots that are crucial to the survival of the Atlantic forest under unfavourable climatic conditions and, as such, offer the only possible opportunity for this type of forest to expand in the event of future climate change.

Efficient but destructive: a test of the dental wash technique using secondary electron microscopy

The Boyadjian et al dental wash technique provides, in certain contexts, the only chance to analyze and quantify the use of plants by past populations and is therefore an important milestone for the reconstruction of paleodiet. With this paper we present recent investigations and results upon the influence of this method on teeth. A series of six teeth from a three thousand years old Brazilian shellmound (Jabuticabeira II) was examined before and after dental wash. The main focus was documenting the alteration of the surfaces and microstructures. The status of all teeth were documented using macrophotography, optical light microscopy, and atmospheric Secondary Electron Microscopy (aSEM) prior and after applying the dental wash technique. The comparison of pictures taken before and after dental wash showed the different degrees of variation and damage done to the teeth but, also, provided additional information about microstructures, which have not been visible before. Consequently we suggest that dental wash should only be carried out, if absolutely necessary, after dental pathology, dental morphology and microwear studies have been accomplished. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].

Precambrian geotectonic units of the Rio de La Plata craton

The main Precambrian tectonic units of Uruguay include the Piedra Alta tectonostratigraphic terrane (PATT) and Nico Perez tectonostratigraphic terrane (NPTT), separated by the Sarandi del Yi high-strain zone. Both terranes are well exposed in the Rio de La Plata craton (RPC). Although these tectonic units are geographically small, they record a wide span of geologic time. Therefore improved geological knowledge of this area provides a fuller understanding of the evolution of the core of South America. The PATT is constituted by low-to medium-grade metamorphic belts (ca. 2.1 Ga); its petrotectonic associations such as metavolcanic units, conglomerates, banded iron formations, and turbiditic deposits suggest a back-arc or a trench-basin setting. Also in the PATT, a late to post-orogenic, arc-related layered mafic complex (2.3-1.9 Ga), followed by A-type granites (2.08 Ga), and finally a taphrogenic mafic dike swarm (1.78 Ga) occur. The less thoroughly studied NPTT consists of Palaeoproterozoic high-grade metamorphic sequences (ca. 2.2 Ga), mylonites and postorogenic and rapakivi granites (1.75 Ga). The Brasiliano-Pan African orogeny affected this terrane. Neoproterozoic cover occurs in both tectonostratigraphic terranes, but is more developed in the NPTT. Over the past 15 years, new isotopic studies have improved our recognition of different tectonic events and associated processes, such as reactivation of shear zones and fluids circulation. Transamazonian and Statherian tectonic events were recognized in the RPC. Based on magmatism, deformation, basin development and metamorphism, we propose a scheme for the Precambrian tectonic evolution of Uruguay, which is summarized in the first Palaeoproterozoic tectonic map of the Rio de La Plata craton.

Detailed analysis of the charge transfer complex N,N-dimethylaniline-SO(2) by Raman spectroscopy and density functional theory calculations

Although the amine sulfur dioxide chemistry was well characterized in the past both experimentally and theoretically, no systematic Raman spectroscopic study describes the interaction between N,N-dimethylaniline (DMA) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)). The formation of a deep red oil by the reaction of SO(2) with DMA is an evidence of the charge transfer (CT) nature of the DMA-SO(2) interaction. The DMA -SO(2) normal Raman spectrum shows the appearance of two intense bands at 1110 and 1151 cm(-1), which are enhanced when resonance is approached. These bands are assigned to nu(s)(SO(2)) and nu(phi-N) vibrational modes, respectively, confirming the interaction between SO(2) and the amine via the nitrogen atom. The dimethyl group steric effect favors the interaction of SO(2) with the ring pi electrons, which gives rise to a pi-pi* low-energy CT electronic transition, as confirmed by time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations. In addition, the calculated Raman DMA-SO(2) spectrum at the B3LYP/6-311++g(3df,3pd) level shows good agreement with the experimental results (vibrational wavenumbers and relative intensities), allowing a complete assignment of the vibrational modes. A better understanding of the intermolecular interactions in this model system can be extremely useful in designing new materials to absorb, detect, or even quantify SO(2). Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Emergency department triage scales and their components : a systematic review of the scientific evidence

Emergency department (ED) triage is used to identify patients' level of urgency and treat them based on their triage level. The global advancement of triage scales in the past two decades has generated considerable research on the validity and reliability of these scales. This systematic review aims to investigate the scientific evidence for published ED triage scales. The following questions are addressed: 1. Does assessment of individual vital signs or chief complaints affect mortality during the hospital stay or within 30 days after arrival at the ED? 2. What is the level of agreement between clinicians' triage decisions compared to each other or to a gold standard for each scale (reliability)? 3. How valid is each triage scale in predicting hospitalization and hospital mortality? A systematic search of the international literature published from 1966 through March 31, 2009 explored the British Nursing Index, Business Source Premier, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and PubMed. Inclusion was limited to controlled studies of adult patients (≥15 years) visiting EDs for somatic reasons. Outcome variables were death in ED or hospital and need for hospitalization (validity). Methodological quality and clinical relevance of each study were rated as high, medium, or low. The results from the studies that met the inclusion criteria and quality standards were synthesized applying the internationally developed GRADE system. Each conclusion was then assessed as having strong, moderately strong, limited, or insufficient scientific evidence. If studies were not available, this was also noted. We found ED triage scales to be supported, at best, by limited and often insufficient evidence. The ability of the individual vital signs included in the different scales to predict outcome is seldom, if at all, studied in the ED setting. The scientific evidence to assess interrater agreement (reliability) was limited for one triage scale and insufficient or lacking for all other scales. Two of the scales yielded limited scientific evidence, and one scale yielded insufficient evidence, on which to assess the risk of early death or hospitalization in patients assigned to the two lowest triage levels on a 5-level scale (validity).

Scriptural Archeology: Excavating the Presence of Women in the Torah

Women's roles in religious history have been traditionally described in terms of their relation and value to men. The normative religious texts provide an androcentric perspective on the gender relationships within the early community, the growth of Judaism in "Jacob's House" and the monotheistic worship of God. Yet these literary representations omit an entire half of the experience of the Jewish community: the perspective and participation of women. As Judith Plaskow argues extensively in Standing Again at Sinai, women are defined not in her own terms or in her own voice, but by her relationship and value to men through the androcentric vocabulary of the Torah. This statement is textually illustrated by the authorial and editorial presentation of women and their place in ancient Israelite society in the Torah. As Judaism grew increasingly androcentric in its leadership, women were increasingly reduced to marginal figures in the community by authorial and editorial revisions. Yet the participation of women of ancient Israel is not lost. Instead, the presence of women is buried beneath the androcentric presentation of the early Judaic community, waiting to be excavated by historical and scriptural examination. The retelling of the past is influenced by the present; memory is not static but takes on different shapes depending on the focus of concentration. However, tradition greatly influences the interpretation of religious history as well. In the book of Genesis, the literature emphasizes the divine appointment of male figures such as Abraham the father of the covenant and Jacob who is renamed and claimed by God as "Israel," placing them at the center of Jewish history. As a result, the other figures in these biblical narratives are described in relation to the patriarchs, those male bearers of the covenant, by their service or their value to him. Women are at the bottom of this hierarchy. Although female figures of exceptional quality are noted in later chronicles, such as Ruth, Deborah and Miriam, it is the very nature of their exception that highlights the androcentric editorial focus of the Torah. I agree with Peggy Day, whose own scriptural examination in Gender and Difference in Ancient Israel, makes the important distinction between the literary representation and the reality of ancient Israelite culture: they are not coextensive nor equivalent. Although the text represents the culture of ancient Israel as male dominated from the time of Abraham, this presentation omits the perspective of half of the population-the women. By beginning at the point of realization that women did exist and were active in their culture, and placing aside the androcentric perspective of the text and its editors, the reality of women's place in ancient Israel may be determined. Through this new perspective, the women of the Torah will emerge as the archetypes of strength, leadership and spiritual insight to provide Jewish women of the present with female, ancestral role models and a foundation for their gender's heritage, a more complete understanding of the partial record of Jewish history recorded in the Torah. Those stories that appear as the exception of women's presence will unveil an exceptional presence. As Tamar Frankiel eloquently states in The Voice of Sarah, "the women we call our 'Mothers'-Sarah, Rivkah (Rebekah), Rachel, and Leah-are not merely mothers, any more than the 'Fathers'-Abraham, Isaac and Jacob-are merely fathers "(Frankiel 5).

Opening the Windows of the Church to the World: The Creation of Nostra Aetate and Its Impact on the Christian-Jewish relationship

It is important to assert that this study is not a work to inflict guilt on the Catholics or Catholicism for their silence and indifference during the Holocaust. Instead, this study is about the process of moving on from the Catholic Church's past to where the Jewish community's theological existence was finally recognized and the Jewish people were no longer seen as the Others who killed Christ. This was, achieved through a church declaration titled Nostra Aetate (In Our Time). This study records the journey traversed by this declaration, the insurmountable odds it faced in its creation until its promulgation and the impact it has on the Jewish-Christian relationship.

Socio-cultural Degeneration and State Patronage of the Arts: Mapplethorpe, Cultural Crisis, and the NEA

The goal of this paper is to investigate how the Untied States federal government, specifically through the National Endowment for the Arts, or NEA, has acted in the position of an arts patron in the past few decades. Specifically, this paper will focus on the past decade and a half since the 'arts crisis' of the late 1980s and the social and political backlash against the art community in the 1990s, which was only against ‘offensive’ art that was seen as morally and culturally corruptive. I explore the political, social, and economic forms the backlash took, particularly rooted in a perceived fear of degenerative arts as a corruption of and a catalyst for the eventual collapse of American culture and values. Additionally, I analyse the role the federal government played in ‘ameliorating’ the situation. I investigate how state arts patronage has affected and continues to affect both the concepts behind and the manifestations of art, as well as who is encouraged, sanctioned, or neglected in the production of art. To accomplish this, I explore how and why the federal government employs the arts to define and redefine morality and culture, and how does it express/allow the expressions of these through art.

Measures of the welfare cost of inflation: a complete ordering

This paper presents three contributions to the literature on the welfare cost of ináation. First, it introduces a new sensible way of measuring this cost - that of a compensating variation in consumption or income, instead of the equivalent variation notion that has been extensively used in empirical and theoretical research during the past fiftt years. We Önd this new measure to be interestingly related to the proxy measure of the shopping-time welfare cost of ináation introduced by Simonsen and Cysne (2001). Secondly, it discusses for which money-demand functions this and the shopping-time measure can be evaluated in an economically meaningful way. And, last but not least, it completely orders a comprehensive set of measures of the welfare cost of ináation for these money-demand specification. All of our results are extended to an economy in which there are many types of monies present, and are illustrated with the log-log money-demand specification.