The discourse of climate change: a corpus-based approach

Based on Goffman’s definition that frames are general ‘schemata of interpretation’ that people use to ‘locate, perceive, identify, and label’, other scholars have used the concept in a more specific way to analyze media coverage. Frames are used in the sense of organizing devices that allow journalists to select and emphasise topics, to decide ‘what matters’ (Gitlin 1980). Gamson and Modigliani (1989) consider frames as being embedded within ‘media packages’ that can be seen as ‘giving meaning’ to an issue. According to Entman (1993), framing comprises a combination of different activities such as: problem definition, causal interpretation, moral evaluation, and/or treatment recommendation for the item described. Previous research has analysed climate change with the purpose of testing Downs’s model of the issue attention cycle (Trumbo 1996), to uncover media biases in the US press (Boykoff and Boykoff 2004), to highlight differences between nations (Brossard et al. 2004; Grundmann 2007) or to analyze cultural reconstructions of scientific knowledge (Carvalho and Burgess 2005). In this paper we shall present data from a corpus linguistics-based approach. We will be drawing on results of a pilot study conducted in Spring 2008 based on the Nexis news media archive. Based on comparative data from the US, the UK, France and Germany, we aim to show how the climate change issue has been framed differently in these countries and how this framing indicates differences in national climate change policies.

Climate change performance measurement, control and accountability in English local areas

Purpose – This paper aims to consider how climate change performance is measured and accounted for within the performance framework for local authority areas in England adopted in 2008. It critically evaluates the design of two mitigation and one adaptation indicators that are most relevant to climate change. Further, the potential for these performance indicators to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation is discussed. Design/methodology/approach – The authors begin by examining the importance of the performance framework and the related Local Area Agreements (LAAs), which were negotiated for all local areas in England between central government and Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs). This development is located within the broader literature relating to new public management. The potential for this framework to assist in delivering the UK's climate change policy objectives is researched in a two-stage process. First, government publications and all 150 LAAs were analysed to identify the level of priority given to the climate change indicators. Second, interviews were conducted in spring 2009 with civil servants and local authority officials from the English West Midlands who were engaged in negotiating the climate change content of the LAAs. Findings – Nationally, the authors find that 97 per cent of LAAs included at least one climate change indicator as a priority. The indicators themselves, however, are perceived to be problematic – in terms of appropriateness, accuracy and timeliness. In addition, concerns were identified about the level of local control over the drivers of climate change performance and, therefore, a question is raised as to how LSPs can be held accountable for this. On a more positive note, for those concerned about climate change, the authors do find evidence that the inclusion of these indicators within the performance framework has helped to move climate change up the agenda for local authorities and their partners. However, actions by the UK's new coalition government to abolish the national performance framework and substantially reduce public expenditure potentially threaten this advance. Originality/value – This paper offers an insight into a new development for measuring climate change performance at a local level, which is relatively under-researched. It also contributes to knowledge of accountability within a local government setting and provides a reference point for further research into the potential role of local actions to address the issue of climate change.

Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling

In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature, but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However, because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year, these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios, we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKHI and UKLO, which predict drastic global warming, then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio, where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later), whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535, GFDL 5564 and UKTR, a transition could be noticed.

Analysis of climate change scenarios based on modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a Danubian copepod species

Climate change is one of the most crucial ecological problems of our age with great influence. Seasonal dynamics of aquatic communities are — among others — regulated by the climate, especially by temperature. In this case study we attempted the simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a copepod species, Cyclops vicinus, which ranks among the zooplankton community, based on a quantitative database containing ten years of data from the Danube’s Göd area. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of Cyclops vicinus by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population. The model was adapted to eight years of daily temperature data observed between 1981 and 1994 and was tested successfully with the additional data of two further years. The model was run with the data series of climate change scenarios specified for the period around 2070- 2100. On the other hand we looked for the geographically analogous areas with the Göd region which are mostly similar to the future climate of the Göd area. By means of the above-mentioned points we can get a view how the climate of the region will change by the end of the 21st century, and the way the seasonal dynamics of a chosen planktonic crustacean species may follow this change. According to our results the area of Göd will be similar to the northern region of Greece. The maximum abundance of the examined species occurs a month to one and a half months earlier, moreover larger variances are expected between years in respect of the abundance. The deviations are expected in the direction of smaller or significantly larger abundance not observed earlier.

Negative impact of climate change on the distribution of some conifers

A climate envelope model was run on the distribution of four coniferous species (European silver fir, European larch, Norway spruce, and Swiss pine). The model was supported by EUFORGEN area database, ArcGIS 10 and PAST software, andREMO climate model. Prediction periods were 2011-40 and 2041-70.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate data-set, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.

A forgalomban lévő fásszárú dísznövénytaxonok szárazságtűrésének értékelése a klímaváltozás tükrében (Evaluation of the impact climate change on current drought-tolerant woody plants)

Regionális klímaváltozási forgatókönyvek szerint hazánk éghajlata az elkövetkező 90 évben a mainál jóval melegebb, a nyári évszakban csapadékszegényebb, összességében pedig szárazabb lesz. Kutatásunk célja volt felmérni szárazságtűrésük szerint a legjelentősebb faiskolák katalógusában fellelhető fa- és cserjefajokat (a gyűjtésben nem szerepelnek a faj alatti taxonok). A vizsgálatainkban szereplő öt faiskola növénykínálatát a tudományos nevek ellenőrzése után összesítettük, majd ezt követően az egyes fajokat vízigény szerinti kategóriákba soroltuk. A tényleges statisztikai értékelésbe – a 451 összegyűjtött faj tudományos neveinek ellenőrzése után – 420 fajt vontunk be, melyek 20%-a vízigényes, 53%-a közepesen vízigényes és 27%-a szárazságtűrő. Várakozásainkkal ellentétben a vízigényes fajok részaránya kevésnek mondható, ugyanakkor a szárazságtűrő fajok magasabb aránya kívánatos lenne. Ezért, a gyakorlati alkalmazást elősegítve, kiemeltünk olyan nemzetségeket, melyek kereskedelmi forgalmazását meg kellene kezdeni vagy fokozni, mint pl a Cupressus, Eucommia, Halimodendron, Paliurus, Pyrus, Rhus, Yucca Zanthoxylum, Zelkova, illetve olyanokat, melyek telepítését a jövőben nem, vagy csak kellő körültekintéssel javasoljuk, mint például a Clematis, Hydrangea, Liquidambar, Magnolia, Rhododendron nemzetségek. _____ According to regional climate change scenarios, the climate in Hungary will be warmer. Less precipitation is predicted in the summer seasons so, on the whole, it will be drier over the next 90 years. Our research attempted to survey the ornamental plant species in the most important nurseries in Hungary, in terms of their drought tolerance. The intraspecifi c taxa are not included. The plant assortment of the fi ve nurseries was merged after researching their scientifi c names. We then categorized species to 3 groups of drought tolerance. Out of 451 species, 420 of them were used in the statistical research. 20% of them were water demanding, 53% were medium drought tolerant and 27% were drought tolerant. In contrast to our initial expectation, the proportion of water demanding species was not too high. Nevertheless, the proportion of drought tolerant species should have been greater. We classifi ed the genera to assist in practical application. The trade of some of these species, such as Cupressus, Eucommia, Halimodendron, Paliurus, Pyrus, Rhus, Yucca, Zanthoxylum, Zelkova should be initiated or increased in the future. Other species, especially Clematis, Hydrangea, Liquidambar, Magnolia, Rhododendron are not recommended due to either their drought intolerance or their high maintenance requirement.

Impression of the global climate change on the ornamental plant usage in Hungary

The climate modeling, which has adequate spatial and temporal resolution, shows that the future climate of the Carpathian Basin will be much more arid and hot than nowadays. The currently used and taught assortment of the ligneous ornamental plants should be urgently revised. It is aimed in my research to collect the species which will probably be introduced in the future. They can be gathered from the Hungarian botanical gardens and research centers and from the spatially analogous territories. The collected taxa should be examined with GIS software if they will really suffer our future climate.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species

Our study intended to explore the potential distributionshif of Phlebotomusariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. We used climate envelope modeling (CEM) method to determine the ecological requirements of the species and to model the potential distribution for three periods (1961-1990, 2011-2040, and 2041- 2070). We found that by the end of the 2060’s the Southern UK, Germany, entire France and also the western part of Poland can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasishowe the greatest potential northward expansion, from 49°N to 59°N. For all of the studied sand fly species the entire Mediterranean Basin, the Balkan Peninsula, the Carpathian Basin, and northern coastline of the Black Sea are potentially suitable. The length of the predicted active period of the vectors will increase with one or two months.