991 resultados para Uncertainty propagation


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Periodically loaded dipole arrays printed on grounded dielectric substrate are shown to exhibit left-handed propagation properties. In an equivalent transmission line representation, lefthandedness emerges due to the excess series capacitance and shunt inductance. Based on this concept, the authors study the distribution of the modal fields and the variation of series capacitance and shunt inductance as the dipoles are loaded with stubs. Full wave dispersion curves that show the gradual transition from a right-handed to a left-handed medium upon periodically loading the dipoles with stubs are presented. An equivalent circuit is derived that matches to a very good extent the full wave result. The cell dimensions are a small fraction of the wavelength (),15), so the structure can be considered as an equivalent homogeneous surface. The structure is simple, readily scalable to higher frequencies and compatible with low-cost fabrication techniques.

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Margins are used in radiotherapy to assist in the calculation of planning target volumes. These margins can be determined by analysing the geometric uncertainties inherent to the radiotherapy planning and delivery process. An important part of this process is the study of electronic portal images collected throughout the course of treatment. Set-up uncertainties were determined for prostate radiotherapy treatments at our previous site and the new purpose-built centre, with margins determined using a number of different methods. In addition, the potential effect of reducing the action level from 5 mm to 3 mm for changing a patient set-up, based on off-line bony anatomy-based portal image analysis, was studied. Margins generated using different methodologies were comparable. It was found that set-up errors were reduced following relocation to the new centre. Although a significant increase in the number of corrections to a patient's set-up was predicted if the action level was reduced from 5 mm to 3 mm, minimal reduction in patient set-up uncertainties would be seen as a consequence. Prescriptive geometric uncertainty analysis not only supports calculation and justification of the margins used clinically to generate planning target volumes, but may also best be used to monitor trends in clinical practice or audit changes introduced by new equipment, technology or practice. Simulations on existing data showed that a 3 mm rather than a 5 mm action level during off-line, bony anatomy-based portal imaging would have had a minimal benefit for the patients studied in this work.

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The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

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Modeling of on-body propagation channels is of paramount importance to those wishing to evaluate radio channel performance for wearable devices in body area networks (BANs). Difficulties in modeling arise due to the highly variable channel conditions related to changes in the user's state and local environment. This study characterizes these influences by using time-series analysis to examine and model signal characteristics for on-body radio channels in user stationary and mobile scenarios in four different locations: anechoic chamber, open office area, hallway, and outdoor environment. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions are reported and shown to be dependent on body state and surroundings. Autoregressive (AR) transfer functions are used to perform time-series analysis and develop models for fading in various on-body links. Due to the non-Gaussian nature of the logarithmically transformed observed signal envelope in the majority of mobile user states, a simple method for reproducing the failing based on lognormal and Nakagami statistics is proposed. The validity of the AR models is evaluated using hypothesis testing, which is based on the Ljung-Box statistic, and the estimated distributional parameters of the simulator output compared with those from experimental results.

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A combined antennas and propagation study has been undertaken with a view to directly improving link conditions for wireless body area networks. Using tissue-equivalent numerical and experimental phantoms representative of muscle tissue at 2.45 GHz, we show that the node to node [S-21] path gain performance of a new wearable integrated antenna (WIA) is up to 9 dB better than a conventional compact Printed-F antenna, both of which are suitable for integration with wireless node circuitry. Overall, the WIA performed extremely well with a measured radiation efficiency of 38% and an impedance bandwidth of 24%. Further benefits were also obtained using spatial diversity, with the WIA providing up to 7.7 dB of diversity gain for maximal ratio combining. The results also show that correlation was lower for a multipath environment leading to higher diversity gain. Furthermore, a diversity implementation with the new antenna gave up to 18 dB better performance in terms of mean power level and there was a significant improvement in level crossing rates and average fade durations when moving from a single-branch to a two-branch diversity system.

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The propagation of a Gaussian electromagnetic beam along the direction of magnetic field in a plasma is investigated. The extraordinary (E-x+iE(y)) mode is explicitly considered in the analysis, although the results for the ordinary mode can be obtained upon replacing the electron cyclotron frequency omega(c) by -omega(c). The propagating beam electric field is coupled to the surrounding plasma via the dielectric tensor, taking into account the existence of a stationary magnetic field. Both collisionless and collisional cases are considered, separately. Adopting an established methodological framework for beam propagation in unmagnetized plasmas, we extend to magnetized plasmas by considering the beam profile for points below the critical curve in the beam-power versus beam-width plane, and by employing a relationship among electron concentration and electron temperature, provided by kinetic theory (rather than phenomenology). It is shown that, for points lying above the critical curve in the beam-power versus beam-width plane, the beam experiences oscillatory convergence (self-focusing), while for points between the critical curve and divider curve, the beam undergoes oscillatory divergence and for points on and below the divider curve the beam suffers a steady divergence. For typical values of parameters, numerical results are presented and discussed. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

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One of the attractive features of sound synthesis by physical modeling is the potential to build acoustic-sounding digital instruments that offer more flexibility and different options in its design and control than their real-life counterparts. In order to develop such virtual-acoustic instruments, the models they are based on need to be fully parametric, i.e., all coefficients employed in the model are functions of physical parameters that are controlled either online or at the (offline) design stage. In this letter we show how propagation losses can be parametrically incorporated in digital waveguide string models with the use of zero-phase FIR filters. Starting from the simplest possible design in the form of a three-tap FIR filter, a higher-order FIR strategy is presented and discussed within the perspective of string sound synthesis with digital waveguide models.

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The paper extends Blackburn and Galindev's (Economics Letters, Vol. 79 (2003), pp. 417-421) stochastic growth model in which productivity growth entails both external and internal learning behaviour with a constant relative risk aversion utility function and productivity shocks. Consequently, the relationship between long-term growth and short-term volatility depends not only on the relative importance of each learning mechanism but also on a parameter measuring individuals' attitude towards risk.

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This paper studies a problem of dynamic pricing faced by a retailer with limited inventory, uncertain about the demand rate model, aiming to maximize expected discounted revenue over an infinite time horizon. The retailer doubts his demand model which is generated by historical data and views it as an approximation. Uncertainty in the demand rate model is represented by a notion of generalized relative entropy process, and the robust pricing problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game. The pricing policy is obtained through the Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation. The existence and uniqueness of the solution of the HJI equation is shown and a verification theorem is proved to show that the solution of the HJI equation is indeed the value function of the pricing problem. The results are illustrated by an example with exponential nominal demand rate.