Estimation Technique of International Input-Output Model by Non-survey Method

The Asian International Input-Output (IO) Table that is compiled by Institute of Developing Economies-JETRO (IDE), was constructed in Isard type form. Thus, it required a lot of time to publish. In order to avoid this time-lag problem and establish a more simple compilation technique, this paper concentrates on verifying the possibility of using the Chenery-Moses type estimation technique. If possible, applying the Chenery-Moses instead of the Isard type would be effective for both impact and linkage analysis (except for some countries such as Malaysia and Singapore and some primary sectors. Using Chenery-Moses estimation method, production of the Asian International IO table can be reduced by two years. And more, this method might have the possibilities to be applied for updating exercise of Asian IO table.

Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania

This paper, investigates causal relationships among agriculture, manufacturing and export in Tanzania by using time series data for the period between 1970 and 2005. The empirical results show in both sectors there is Granger causality where agriculture causes both exports and manufacturing. Exports also cause both agricultural GDP and manufacturing GDP and any two variables out of three jointly cause the third one. There is also some evidence that manufacturing does not cause export and agriculture. Regarding cointegration, pairwise agricultural GDP and export are cointegrated, export and manufacture are cointegrated. Agriculture and manufacture are cointegrated but they are lag sensitive. However, three variables, manufacturing, export and agriculture both together are cointegrated showing that they share long run relation and this has important economic implications.

Complex Vertical FDI and Firm Heterogeneity: Evidence from East Asia

In this paper we statistically test the validity of the mechanics of complex VFDI in Japanese machinery FDI to East Asia; we do this by estimating a multiple-spatial lag model. From the theoretical point of view, in complex VFDI, the production activity of affiliates in a given country is positively related to that in neighboring countries which have large differences in factor prices with the given country. Our empirical results show that such mechanics of complex VFDI work in Japanese FDI to East Asia, and that they work more strongly in the MNEs with higher productivity. These results have an important implication for the policies of developing countries in attracting FDI.

Political influence in commercial and financial oil trading : the evidence from US firms

International politics affects oil trade. But do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. However, the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold-up risks, which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to expropriation. In particular, our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from U.S. political enemies. Interestingly, while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics, other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. Our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets, policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk.

Analysis of house prices to assess economic impacts of new public transport infrastructure: Madrid metro line 12.

Transportation infrastructure is known to affect the value of real estate property by virtue of changes in accessibility. The impact of transportation facilities is highly localized as well, and it is possible that spillover effects result from the capitalization of accessibility. The objective of this study was to review the theoretical background related to spatial hedonic models and the opportunities that they provided to evaluate the effect of new transportation infrastructure. An empirical case study is presented: the Madrid Metro Line 12, known as Metrosur, in the region of Madrid, Spain. The effect of proximity to metro stations on housing prices was evaluated. The analysis took into account a host of variables, including structure, location, and neighborhood and made use of three modeling approaches: linear regression estimation with ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag. The results indicated that better accessibility to Metrosur stations had a positive impact on real estate values and that the effect was marked in cases in which a house was for sale. The results also showed the presence of submarkets, which were well defined by geographic boundaries, and transport fares, which implied that the economic benefits differed across municipalities.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Allocation of 14C assimilated in late spring to tissue and biochemical stem components of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) over the seasons

Carbon distribution in the stem of 2-year-old cork oak plants was studied by 14CO2 pulse labeling in late spring in order to trace the allocation of photoassimilates to tissue and biochemical stem components of cork oak. The fate of 14C photoassimilated carbon was followed during two periods: the first 72 h (short-term study) and the first 52 weeks (long-term study) after the 14CO2 photosynthetic assimilation. The results showed that 14C allocation to stem tissues was dependent on the time passed since photoassimilation and on the season of the year. In the first 3 h all 14C was found in the polar extractives. After 3 h, it started to be allocated to other stem fractions. In 1 day, 14C was allocated mostly to vascular cambium and, to a lesser extent, to primary phloem; no presence of 14C was recorded for the periderm. However, translocation of 14C to phellem was observed from 1 week after 14CO2 pulse labeling. The phellogen was not completely active in its entire circumference at labeling, unlike the vascular cambium; this was the tissue that accumulated most photoassimilated 14C at the earliest sampling. The fraction of leaf-assimilated 14C that was used by the stem peaked at 57% 1 week after 14CO2 plant exposure. The time lag between C photoassimilation and suberin accumulation was ∼8 h, but the most active period for suberin accumulation was between 3 and 7 days. Suberin, which represented only 1.77% of the stem weight, acted as a highly effective sink for the carbon photoassimilated in late spring since suberin specific radioactivity was much higher than for any other stem component as early as only 1 week after 14C plant labeling. This trend was maintained throughout the whole experiment. The examination of microautoradiographs taken over 1 year provided a new method for quantifying xylem growth. Using this approach it was found that there was more secondary xylem growth in late spring than in other times of the year, because the calculated average cell division time was much shorter.

Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study

The direct application of existing models for seed germination may often be inadequate in the context of ecology and forestry germination experiments. This is because basic model assumptions are violated and variables available to forest managers are rarely used. In this paper, we present a method which addresses the aforementioned shortcomings. The approach is illustrated through a case study of Pinus pinea L. Our findings will also shed light on the role of germination in the general failure of natural regeneration in managed forests of this species. The presented technique consists of a mixed regression model based on survival analysis. Climate and stand covariates were tested. Data for fitting the model were gathered from a 5-year germination experiment in a mature, managed P. pinea stand in the Northern Plateau of Spain in which two different stand densities can be found. The model predictions proved to be unbiased and highly accurate when compared with the training data. Germination in P. pinea was controlled through thermal variables at stand level. At microsite level, low densities negatively affected the probability of germination. A time-lag in the response was also detected. Overall, the proposed technique provides a reliable alternative to germination modelling in ecology/forestry studies by using accessible/ suitable variables. The P. pinea case study highlights the importance of producing unbiased predictions. In this species, the occurrence and timing of germination suggest a very different regeneration strategy from that understood by forest managers until now, which may explain the high failure rate of natural regeneration in managed stands. In addition, these findings provide valuable information for the management of P. pinea under climate-change conditions.

Functional and effective connectivity in MEG. Application to the study of epilepsy

Nuestro cerebro contiene cerca de 1014 sinapsis neuronales. Esta enorme cantidad de conexiones proporciona un entorno ideal donde distintos grupos de neuronas se sincronizan transitoriamente para provocar la aparición de funciones cognitivas, como la percepción, el aprendizaje o el pensamiento. Comprender la organización de esta compleja red cerebral en base a datos neurofisiológicos, representa uno de los desafíos más importantes y emocionantes en el campo de la neurociencia. Se han propuesto recientemente varias medidas para evaluar cómo se comunican las diferentes partes del cerebro a diversas escalas (células individuales, columnas corticales, o áreas cerebrales). Podemos clasificarlos, según su simetría, en dos grupos: por una parte, la medidas simétricas, como la correlación, la coherencia o la sincronización de fase, que evalúan la conectividad funcional (FC); mientras que las medidas asimétricas, como la causalidad de Granger o transferencia de entropía, son capaces de detectar la dirección de la interacción, lo que denominamos conectividad efectiva (EC). En la neurociencia moderna ha aumentado el interés por el estudio de las redes funcionales cerebrales, en gran medida debido a la aparición de estos nuevos algoritmos que permiten analizar la interdependencia entre señales temporales, además de la emergente teoría de redes complejas y la introducción de técnicas novedosas, como la magnetoencefalografía (MEG), para registrar datos neurofisiológicos con gran resolución. Sin embargo, nos hallamos ante un campo novedoso que presenta aun varias cuestiones metodológicas sin resolver, algunas de las cuales trataran de abordarse en esta tesis. En primer lugar, el creciente número de aproximaciones para determinar la existencia de FC/EC entre dos o más señales temporales, junto con la complejidad matemática de las herramientas de análisis, hacen deseable organizarlas todas en un paquete software intuitivo y fácil de usar. Aquí presento HERMES (http://hermes.ctb.upm.es), una toolbox en MatlabR, diseñada precisamente con este fin. Creo que esta herramienta será de gran ayuda para todos aquellos investigadores que trabajen en el campo emergente del análisis de conectividad cerebral y supondrá un gran valor para la comunidad científica. La segunda cuestión practica que se aborda es el estudio de la sensibilidad a las fuentes cerebrales profundas a través de dos tipos de sensores MEG: gradiómetros planares y magnetómetros, esta aproximación además se combina con un enfoque metodológico, utilizando dos índices de sincronización de fase: phase locking value (PLV) y phase lag index (PLI), este ultimo menos sensible a efecto la conducción volumen. Por lo tanto, se compara su comportamiento al estudiar las redes cerebrales, obteniendo que magnetómetros y PLV presentan, respectivamente, redes más densamente conectadas que gradiómetros planares y PLI, por los valores artificiales que crea el problema de la conducción de volumen. Sin embargo, cuando se trata de caracterizar redes epilépticas, el PLV ofrece mejores resultados, debido a la gran dispersión de las redes obtenidas con PLI. El análisis de redes complejas ha proporcionado nuevos conceptos que mejoran caracterización de la interacción de sistemas dinámicos. Se considera que una red está compuesta por nodos, que simbolizan sistemas, cuyas interacciones se representan por enlaces, y su comportamiento y topología puede caracterizarse por un elevado número de medidas. Existe evidencia teórica y empírica de que muchas de ellas están fuertemente correlacionadas entre sí. Por lo tanto, se ha conseguido seleccionar un pequeño grupo que caracteriza eficazmente estas redes, y condensa la información redundante. Para el análisis de redes funcionales, la selección de un umbral adecuado para decidir si un determinado valor de conectividad de la matriz de FC es significativo y debe ser incluido para un análisis posterior, se convierte en un paso crucial. En esta tesis, se han obtenido resultados más precisos al utilizar un test de subrogadas, basado en los datos, para evaluar individualmente cada uno de los enlaces, que al establecer a priori un umbral fijo para la densidad de conexiones. Finalmente, todas estas cuestiones se han aplicado al estudio de la epilepsia, caso práctico en el que se analizan las redes funcionales MEG, en estado de reposo, de dos grupos de pacientes epilépticos (generalizada idiopática y focal frontal) en comparación con sujetos control sanos. La epilepsia es uno de los trastornos neurológicos más comunes, con más de 55 millones de afectados en el mundo. Esta enfermedad se caracteriza por la predisposición a generar ataques epilépticos de actividad neuronal anormal y excesiva o bien síncrona, y por tanto, es el escenario perfecto para este tipo de análisis al tiempo que presenta un gran interés tanto desde el punto de vista clínico como de investigación. Los resultados manifiestan alteraciones especificas en la conectividad y un cambio en la topología de las redes en cerebros epilépticos, desplazando la importancia del ‘foco’ a la ‘red’, enfoque que va adquiriendo relevancia en las investigaciones recientes sobre epilepsia. ABSTRACT There are about 1014 neuronal synapses in the human brain. This huge number of connections provides the substrate for neuronal ensembles to become transiently synchronized, producing the emergence of cognitive functions such as perception, learning or thinking. Understanding the complex brain network organization on the basis of neuroimaging data represents one of the most important and exciting challenges for systems neuroscience. Several measures have been recently proposed to evaluate at various scales (single cells, cortical columns, or brain areas) how the different parts of the brain communicate. We can classify them, according to their symmetry, into two groups: symmetric measures, such as correlation, coherence or phase synchronization indexes, evaluate functional connectivity (FC); and on the other hand, the asymmetric ones, such as Granger causality or transfer entropy, are able to detect effective connectivity (EC) revealing the direction of the interaction. In modern neurosciences, the interest in functional brain networks has increased strongly with the onset of new algorithms to study interdependence between time series, the advent of modern complex network theory and the introduction of powerful techniques to record neurophysiological data, such as magnetoencephalography (MEG). However, when analyzing neurophysiological data with this approach several questions arise. In this thesis, I intend to tackle some of the practical open problems in the field. First of all, the increase in the number of time series analysis algorithms to study brain FC/EC, along with their mathematical complexity, creates the necessity of arranging them into a single, unified toolbox that allow neuroscientists, neurophysiologists and researchers from related fields to easily access and make use of them. I developed such a toolbox for this aim, it is named HERMES (http://hermes.ctb.upm.es), and encompasses several of the most common indexes for the assessment of FC and EC running for MatlabR environment. I believe that this toolbox will be very helpful to all the researchers working in the emerging field of brain connectivity analysis and will entail a great value for the scientific community. The second important practical issue tackled in this thesis is the evaluation of the sensitivity to deep brain sources of two different MEG sensors: planar gradiometers and magnetometers, in combination with the related methodological approach, using two phase synchronization indexes: phase locking value (PLV) y phase lag index (PLI), the latter one being less sensitive to volume conduction effect. Thus, I compared their performance when studying brain networks, obtaining that magnetometer sensors and PLV presented higher artificial values as compared with planar gradiometers and PLI respectively. However, when it came to characterize epileptic networks it was the PLV which gives better results, as PLI FC networks where very sparse. Complex network analysis has provided new concepts which improved characterization of interacting dynamical systems. With this background, networks could be considered composed of nodes, symbolizing systems, whose interactions with each other are represented by edges. A growing number of network measures is been applied in network analysis. However, there is theoretical and empirical evidence that many of these indexes are strongly correlated with each other. Therefore, in this thesis I reduced them to a small set, which could more efficiently characterize networks. Within this framework, selecting an appropriate threshold to decide whether a certain connectivity value of the FC matrix is significant and should be included in the network analysis becomes a crucial step, in this thesis, I used the surrogate data tests to make an individual data-driven evaluation of each of the edges significance and confirmed more accurate results than when just setting to a fixed value the density of connections. All these methodologies were applied to the study of epilepsy, analysing resting state MEG functional networks, in two groups of epileptic patients (generalized and focal epilepsy) that were compared to matching control subjects. Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders, with more than 55 million people affected worldwide, characterized by its predisposition to generate epileptic seizures of abnormal excessive or synchronous neuronal activity, and thus, this scenario and analysis, present a great interest from both the clinical and the research perspective. Results revealed specific disruptions in connectivity and network topology and evidenced that networks’ topology is changed in epileptic brains, supporting the shift from ‘focus’ to ‘networks’ which is gaining importance in modern epilepsy research.

New data on the Pleistocene of Trani (Adriatic Coast, Southern Italy)

Along the Apulian Adriatic coast, in a cliff south of Trani, a succession of three units (superimposed on one another) of marine and/or paralic environments has been recognised. The lowest unit I is characterised by calcareous/siliciclastic sands (css), micritic limestones (ml), stromatolitic and characean boundstones (scb), characean calcarenites (cc). The sedimentary environment merges from shallow marine, with low energy and temporary episodes of subaerial exposure, to lagoonal with a few exchanges with the sea. The lagoonal stromatolites (scb subunit) grew during a long period of relative stability of a high sea level in tropical climate. The unit I is truncated at the top by an erosion surface on which the unit II overlies; this consists of a basal pebble lag (bpl), silicicla - stic sands (ss), calcareous sands (cs), characean boundstones (cb), brown paleosol (bp). The sedimentary environment varies from beach to lagoon with salinity variations. Although there are indications of seismic events within the subunits cs, unit II deposition took place in a context of relative stability. The unit II is referable to a sea level highstand. Unit III, trangressive on the preceding, consists of white calcareous sands (wcs), calcareous sands and calcarenites (csc), phytoclastic calcirudite and phytohermal travertine (pcpt), mixed deposits (csl, m, k, c), sands (s) and red/brown paleosols (rbp). The sedimentation of this unit was affected by synsedimentary tectonic, attested by seismites found at several heights. Also the unit III is referable to a sea level highstand. The scientific literature has so far generally attributed to the Tyrrhenian (auct.) the deposits of Trani cliff. As part of this work some datings were performed on 10 samples, using the amino acid racemization method (AAR) applied to ostracod carapaces. Four of these samples have been rejected because they have shown in laboratory recent contamination. The numerical ages indicate that the deposits of the Trani cliff are older than MIS 5. The upper part of the unit I has been dated to 355±85 ka BP, thus allowing to assign the lowest stromatolitic subunit (scb) at the MIS 11 peak and the top of the unit I at the MIS 11-MIS 10 interval. The base of the unit II has been dated to 333±118 ka BP, thus attributing the erosion surface that bounds the units I and II to the MIS 10 lowstand and the lower part of the unit II to MIS 9.3. The upper part of the unit II has been dated to 234±35 ka BP, while three other numerical ages come from unit III: 303±35, 267±51, 247±61 ka BP. At present, the numerical ages cannot distinguish the sedimentation ages of units II and III, which are both related to the MIS 9.3- MIS 7.1 time range. However, the position of the units, superimposed one another, and their respective age, allows us to recognise a subsidence phase between MIS 11 and MIS 7, followed by an uplift phase between the MIS 7 and the present day, which led the deposits in their current position. This tectonic pattern is not in full agreement with what is described in the literature for the Apulian foreland.

Cooperative localization in mobile networks using nonparametric variants of belief propagation

Of the many state-of-the-art methods for cooperative localization in wireless sensor networks (WSN), only very few adapt well to mobile networks. The main problems of the well-known algorithms, based on nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), are the high communication cost and inefficient sampling techniques. Moreover, they either do not use smoothing or just apply it o ine. Therefore, in this article, we propose more flexible and effcient variants of NBP for cooperative localization in mobile networks. In particular, we provide: i) an optional 1-lag smoothing done almost in real-time, ii) a novel low-cost communication protocol based on package approximation and censoring, iii) higher robustness of the standard mixture importance sampling (MIS) technique, and iv) a higher amount of information in the importance densities by using the population Monte Carlo (PMC) approach, or an auxiliary variable. Through extensive simulations, we confirmed that all the proposed techniques outperform the standard NBP method.

A review of load models for the prediction of footfall-induced vibration in structures

Crowd induced dynamic loading in large structures, such as gymnasiums or stadium, is usually modelled as a series of harmonic loads which are defined in terms of their Fourier coefficients. Different values of these coefficients that were obtained from full scale measurements can be found in codes. Recently, an alternative has been proposed, based on random generation of load time histories that take into account phase lag among individuals inside the crowd. This paper presents the testing done on a structure designed to be a gymnasium. Two series of dynamic test were performed on the gym slab. For the first test an electrodynamic shaker was placed at several locations and during the second one people located inside a marked area bounced and jumped guided by different metronome rates. A finite element model (FEM) is presented and a comparison of numerically predicted and experimentally observed vibration modes and frequencies has been used to assess its validity. The second group of measurements will be compared with predictions made using the FEM model and three alternatives for crowd induced load modelling.

Thermal, stress, and traps effects in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs

GaN y AlN son materiales semiconductores piezoeléctricos del grupo III-V. La heterounión AlGaN/GaN presenta una elevada carga de polarización tanto piezoeléctrica como espontánea en la intercara, lo que genera en su cercanía un 2DEG de grandes concentración y movilidad. Este 2DEG produce una muy alta potencia de salida, que a su vez genera una elevada temperatura de red. Las tensiones de puerta y drenador provocan un stress piezoeléctrico inverso, que puede afectar a la carga de polarización piezoeléctrica y así influir la densidad 2DEG y las características de salida. Por tanto, la física del dispositivo es relevante para todos sus aspectos eléctricos, térmicos y mecánicos. En esta tesis se utiliza el software comercial COMSOL, basado en el método de elementos finitos (FEM), para simular el comportamiento integral electro-térmico, electro-mecánico y electro-térmico-mecánico de los HEMTs de GaN. Las partes de acoplamiento incluyen el modelo de deriva y difusión para el transporte electrónico, la conducción térmica y el efecto piezoeléctrico. Mediante simulaciones y algunas caracterizaciones experimentales de los dispositivos, hemos analizado los efectos térmicos, de deformación y de trampas. Se ha estudiado el impacto de la geometría del dispositivo en su auto-calentamiento mediante simulaciones electro-térmicas y algunas caracterizaciones eléctricas. Entre los resultados más sobresalientes, encontramos que para la misma potencia de salida la distancia entre los contactos de puerta y drenador influye en generación de calor en el canal, y así en su temperatura. El diamante posee une elevada conductividad térmica. Integrando el diamante en el dispositivo se puede dispersar el calor producido y así reducir el auto-calentamiento, al respecto de lo cual se han realizado diversas simulaciones electro-térmicas. Si la integración del diamante es en la parte superior del transistor, los factores determinantes para la capacidad disipadora son el espesor de la capa de diamante, su conductividad térmica y su distancia a la fuente de calor. Este procedimiento de disipación superior también puede reducir el impacto de la barrera térmica de intercara entre la capa adaptadora (buffer) y el substrato. La muy reducida conductividad eléctrica del diamante permite que pueda contactar directamente el metal de puerta (muy cercano a la fuente de calor), lo que resulta muy conveniente para reducir el auto-calentamiento del dispositivo con polarización pulsada. Por otra parte se simuló el dispositivo con diamante depositado en surcos atacados sobre el sustrato como caminos de disipación de calor (disipador posterior). Aquí aparece una competencia de factores que influyen en la capacidad de disipación, a saber, el surco atacado contribuye a aumentar la temperatura del dispositivo debido al pequeño tamaño del disipador, mientras que el diamante disminuiría esa temperatura gracias a su elevada conductividad térmica. Por tanto, se precisan capas de diamante relativamente gruesas para reducer ele efecto de auto-calentamiento. Se comparó la simulación de la deformación local en el borde de la puerta del lado cercano al drenador con estructuras de puerta estándar y con field plate, que podrían ser muy relevantes respecto a fallos mecánicos del dispositivo. Otras simulaciones se enfocaron al efecto de la deformación intrínseca de la capa de diamante en el comportamiento eléctrico del dispositivo. Se han comparado los resultados de las simulaciones de la deformación y las características eléctricas de salida con datos experimentales obtenidos por espectroscopía micro-Raman y medidas eléctricas, respectivamente. Los resultados muestran el stress intrínseco en la capa producido por la distribución no uniforme del 2DEG en el canal y la región de acceso. Además de aumentar la potencia de salida del dispositivo, la deformación intrínseca en la capa de diamante podría mejorar la fiabilidad del dispositivo modulando la deformación local en el borde de la puerta del lado del drenador. Finalmente, también se han simulado en este trabajo los efectos de trampas localizados en la superficie, el buffer y la barrera. Las medidas pulsadas muestran que tanto las puertas largas como las grandes separaciones entre los contactos de puerta y drenador aumentan el cociente entre la corriente pulsada frente a la corriente continua (lag ratio), es decir, disminuir el colapse de corriente (current collapse). Este efecto ha sido explicado mediante las simulaciones de los efectos de trampa de superficie. Por su parte, las referidas a trampas en el buffer se enfocaron en los efectos de atrapamiento dinámico, y su impacto en el auto-calentamiento del dispositivo. Se presenta también un modelo que describe el atrapamiento y liberación de trampas en la barrera: mientras que el atrapamiento se debe a un túnel directo del electrón desde el metal de puerta, el desatrapamiento consiste en la emisión del electrón en la banda de conducción mediante túnel asistido por fonones. El modelo también simula la corriente de puerta, debida a la emisión electrónica dependiente de la temperatura y el campo eléctrico. Además, también se ilustra la corriente de drenador dependiente de la temperatura y el campo eléctrico. ABSTRACT GaN and AlN are group III-V piezoelectric semiconductor materials. The AlGaN/GaN heterojunction presents large piezoelectric and spontaneous polarization charge at the interface, leading to high 2DEG density close to the interface. A high power output would be obtained due to the high 2DEG density and mobility, which leads to elevated lattice temperature. The gate and drain biases induce converse piezoelectric stress that can influence the piezoelectric polarization charge and further influence the 2DEG density and output characteristics. Therefore, the device physics is relevant to all the electrical, thermal, and mechanical aspects. In this dissertation, by using the commercial finite-element-method (FEM) software COMSOL, we achieved the GaN HEMTs simulation with electro-thermal, electro-mechanical, and electro-thermo-mechanical full coupling. The coupling parts include the drift-diffusion model for the electron transport, the thermal conduction, and the piezoelectric effect. By simulations and some experimental characterizations, we have studied the device thermal, stress, and traps effects described in the following. The device geometry impact on the self-heating was studied by electro-thermal simulations and electrical characterizations. Among the obtained interesting results, we found that, for same power output, the distance between the gate and drain contact can influence distribution of the heat generation in the channel and thus influence the channel temperature. Diamond possesses high thermal conductivity. Integrated diamond with the device can spread the generated heat and thus potentially reduce the device self-heating effect. Electro-thermal simulations on this topic were performed. For the diamond integration on top of the device (top-side heat spreading), the determinant factors for the heat spreading ability are the diamond thickness, its thermal conductivity, and its distance to the heat source. The top-side heat spreading can also reduce the impact of thermal boundary resistance between the buffer and the substrate on the device thermal behavior. The very low electrical conductivity of diamond allows that it can directly contact the gate metal (which is very close to the heat source), being quite convenient to reduce the self-heating for the device under pulsed bias. Also, the diamond coated in vias etched in the substrate as heat spreading path (back-side heat spreading) was simulated. A competing mechanism influences the heat spreading ability, i.e., the etched vias would increase the device temperature due to the reduced heat sink while the coated diamond would decrease the device temperature due to its higher thermal conductivity. Therefore, relative thick coated diamond is needed in order to reduce the self-heating effect. The simulated local stress at the gate edge of the drain side for the device with standard and field plate gate structure were compared, which would be relevant to the device mechanical failure. Other stress simulations focused on the intrinsic stress in the diamond capping layer impact on the device electrical behaviors. The simulated stress and electrical output characteristics were compared to experimental data obtained by micro-Raman spectroscopy and electrical characterization, respectively. Results showed that the intrinsic stress in the capping layer caused the non-uniform distribution of 2DEG in the channel and the access region. Besides the enhancement of the device power output, intrinsic stress in the capping layer can potentially improve the device reliability by modulating the local stress at the gate edge of the drain side. Finally, the surface, buffer, and barrier traps effects were simulated in this work. Pulsed measurements showed that long gates and distances between gate and drain contact can increase the gate lag ratio (decrease the current collapse). This was explained by simulations on the surface traps effect. The simulations on buffer traps effects focused on illustrating the dynamic trapping/detrapping in the buffer and the self-heating impact on the device transient drain current. A model was presented to describe the trapping and detrapping in the barrier. The trapping was the electron direct tunneling from the gate metal while the detrapping was the electron emission into the conduction band described by phonon-assisted tunneling. The reverse gate current was simulated based on this model, whose mechanism can be attributed to the temperature and electric field dependent electron emission in the barrier. Furthermore, the mechanism of the device bias via the self-heating and electric field impact on the electron emission and the transient drain current were also illustrated.

Cognitive reserve is associated with the functional organization of brain networks in healthy aging: a MEG study

The proportion of elderly people in the population has increased rapidly in the last century and consequently "healthy aging" is expected to become a critical area of research in neuroscience. Evidence reveals how healthy aging depends on three main behavioral factors: social lifestyle, cognitive activity and physical activity. In this study, we focused on the role of cognitive activity, concentrating specifically on educational and occupational attainment factors, which were considered two of the main pillars of cognitive reserve. 21 subjects with similar rates of social lifestyle, physical and cognitive activity were selected from a sample of 55 healthy adults. These subjects were divided into two groups according to their level of cognitive reserve; one group comprised subjects with high cognitive reserve (9 members) and the other contained those with low cognitive reserve (12 members). To evaluate the cortical brain connectivity network, all participants were recorded by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) while they performed a memory task (modified version of the Sternberg¿s Task). We then applied two algorithms (Phase Locking Value & Phase-Lag Index) to study the dynamics of functional connectivity. In response to the same task, the subjects with lower cognitive reserve presented higher functional connectivity than those with higher cognitive reserve. These results may indicate that participants with low cognitive reserve needed a greater 'effort' than those with high cognitive reserve to achieve the same level of cognitive performance. Therefore, we conclude that cognitive reserve contributes to the modulation of the functional connectivity patterns of the aging brain.