Application of the UK Foresight Obesity Model in Ireland: The Health and Economic Consequences of Projected Obesity Trends in Ireland

Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project.

Trends in Water Quality within the Broward County Portion of the Biscayne Aquifer

Continuous and reliable monitoring of contaminants in drinking water, which adversely affect human health, is the main goal of the Broward County Well Field Protection Program. In this study the individual monitoring station locations were used in a yearly and quarterly spatiotemporal Ordinary Kriging interpolation to create a raster network of contaminant detections. In the final analysis, the raster spatiotemporal nitrate concentration trends were overlaid with a pollution vulnerability index to determine if the concentrations are influenced by a set of independent variables. The pollution vulnerability factors are depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil, impact to vadose zone, and conductivity. The creation of the nitrate raster dataset had an average RMS Standardized error close to 1 at 0.98. The greatest frequency of detections and the highest concentrations are found in the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September. An average of 76.4% of the nitrate intersected with cells of the pollution vulnerability index over 100.

Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida

This study computed trends in extreme precipitation events of Florida for 1950-2010. Hourly aggregated rainfall data from 24 stations of the National Climatic Data Centre were analyzed to derive time-series of extreme rainfalls for 12 durations, ranging from 1 hour to 7 day. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen Approach were applied to detect the significance of trends in annual maximum rainfalls, number of above threshold events and average magnitude of above threshold events for four common analysis periods. Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied to remove the serial correlations and bootstrap resampling approach was used to detect the field significance of trends. The results for annual maximum rainfall revealed dominant increasing trends at the statistical significance level of 0.10, especially for hourly events in longer period and daily events in recent period. The number of above threshold events exhibited strong decreasing trends for hourly durations in all time periods.

New trends in food science: the use of nutraceuticals as an antiinflammatory therapeutic tool in exercise

Prolonged high-intensity training seems to result in increased systemic inflammation, which might explain muscle injury, delayed onset muscle soreness, and overtraining syndrome in athletes. Furthermore, an impaired immune function caused by strenuous exercise leads to the development of upper respiratory tract infections in athletes. Nutraceuticals might help counteract these performance-lowering effects. The use of nanotechnology is an interesting alternative to supply athletes with nutraceuticals, as many of these substances are insoluble in water and are poorly absorbed in the digestive tract. The present chapter starts with a brief review of the effects of exercise on immunity, followed by an analysis on how nutraceuticals such as omega-3 fatty acids, glutamine, BCAAs, or phytochemicals can counteract negative effects of strenuous exercise in athletes. Finally, how nanostructured delivery systems can constitute a new trend in enhancing bioavailability and optimizing the action of nutraceuticals will be discussed, using the example of food beverages.

Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants

Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence - defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs - in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4-7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2-11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9-7·9) to 7·9% (6·4-9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.

Trends in NE Atlantic landings (southern Portugal): identifying the relative importance of fisheries and environmental variables

Time series of commercial landings from the Algarve (southern Portugal) from 1982 to 1999 were analyzed using min/max autocorrelation factor analysis (MAFA) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA). These techniques were used to identify trends and explore the relationships between the response variables (annual landings of 12 species) and explanatory variables [sea surface temperature, rainfall, an upwelling index, Guadiana river (south-east Portugal) flow, the North Atlantic oscillation, the number of licensed fishing vessels and the number of commercial fishermen]. Landings were more highly correlated with non-lagged environmental variables and in particular with Guadiana river flow. Both techniques gave coherent results, with the most important trend being a steady decline over time. A DFA model with two explanatory variables (Guadiana river flow and number of fishermen) and three common trends (smoothing functions over time) gave good fits to 10 of the 12 species. Results of other models indicated that river flow is the more important explanatory variable in this model. Changes in the mean flow and discharge regime of the Guadiana river resulting from the construction of the Alqueva dam, completed in 2002, are therefore likely to have a significant and deleterious impact on Algarve fisheries landings.

Black carbon trends in southwestern Iberia in the context of the financial and economic crisis. The role of bioenergy.

Since black carbon concentrations are useful to reveal changes in anthropogenic activities, measurements taken from 2007 to 2015 in a Portuguese city are used to assess to which extent the ambient air was impacted by the economic crisis. The average black carbon concentrations are representative of an urban area of small size (1.3 ± 1.3 μg m−3). The highest concentrations are observed in the heating season, being biomass combustion one of the causes for the high values. The daily cycle of black carbon concentrations presents both morning and evening peaks, mainly due to road traffic and, in the heating season, to domestic heating as well. The yearly averaged black carbon mass concentrations decreased 33 % from 2007 to 2015, possibly due to a combination of the economic recession and environmental legislation. The reduction in road traffic led to a decrease in the daily morning peak from 2007 to 2015. This reduction was not followed by a decrease in the evening peak, explained by an increase in biomass burning. Biomass is the cheapest heating fuel in Portugal, and its consumption increased in the aftermath of the economic crisis. The use of bioenergy is an alternative to fossil fuels and presents many advantages. However, energy policies should discourage inefficient biomass burning and promote better ways of exploiting the available energy resources and emission air pollution mitigation strategies.

Study of root architecture by overexpressing the maize Rtcs gene in tobacco.

2016

The tobacco industry's past role in weight control related to smoking.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is thought to produce an appetite-suppressing effect by many smokers. Thus, the fear of body weight gain often outweighs the perception of health benefits associated with smoking cessation, particularly in adolescents. We examined whether the tobacco industry played a role in appetite and body weight control related to smoking and smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed a systematic search within the archives of six major US and UK tobacco companies (American Tobacco, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, Lorillard, Brown & Williamson and British American Tobacco) that were Defendants in tobacco litigation settled in 1998. Findings are dated from 1949 to 1999. RESULTS: The documents revealed the strategies planned and used by the industry to enhance effects of smoking on weight and appetite, mostly by chemical modifications of cigarettes contents. Appetite-suppressant molecules, such as tartaric acid and 2-acetylpyridine were added to some cigarettes. CONCLUSION: These tobacco companies played an active and not disclaimed role in the anti-appetite effects of smoking, at least in the past, by adding appetite-suppressant molecules into their cigarettes.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

Time trends and predictors of initiation for cigarette and waterpipe smoking among Jordanian school children: Irbid, 2008-2011

Smoking prevalence among adolescents in the Middle East remains high while rates of smoking have been declining among adolescents elsewhere. The aims of this research were to (1) describe patterns of cigarette and waterpipe (WP) smoking, (2) identify determinants of WP smoking initiation, and (3) identify determinants of cigarette smoking initiation in a cohort of Jordanian school children. ^ Among this cohort of school children in Irbid, Jordan, (age ≈ 12.6 at baseline) the first aim (N=1,781) described time trends in smoking behavior, age at initiation, and changes in frequency of smoking from 2008–2011 (grades 7–10). The second aim (N=1,243) identified determinants of WP initiation among WP-naïve students; and the third aim (N=1,454) identified determinants of cigarette smoking initiation among cigarette naïve participants. Determinants of initiation were assessed with generalized mixed models. All analyses were stratified by gender. ^ Baseline prevalence of current smoking (cigarettes or WP) for boys and girls was 22.9% and 8.7% respectively. Prevalence of ever- and current- any smoking, cigarette smoking, WP smoking, and dual cigarette/WP smoking was higher in boys than girls each year (p<0.001). At all time points, prevalence of WP smoking was higher than that of cigarette smoking (p<0.001) for both boys and girls. WP initiation was documented in 39% of boys and 28% of girls. Cigarette initiation was documented in 37% of boys and 24% of girls. Determinants of WP initiation included ever-cigarette smoking, low WP refusal self-efficacy, intention to smoke, and having teachers and friends who smoke WP. Determinants of cigarette smoking initiation included ever-WP smoking, low cigarette refusal self-efficacy, intention to start smoking cigarettes, and having friends and family who smoke.^ These studies reveal intensive smoking patterns at early ages among Jordanian youth in Irbid, characterized by a predominance of WP smoking. WP may be a vehicle for tobacco dependence and subsequent cigarette uptake. The sizeable incidence of WP and cigarette initiation among students of both sexes points to a need for culturally relevant smoking prevention interventions. Gender-specific factors, refusal skills, and smoking cessation of both WP and cigarettes for youth and their parents/teachers would be important components of such initiatives. ^

How much do smoking and alcohol consumption explain socioeconomic inequalities in head and neck cancer risk?

Background A higher burden of head and neck cancer has been reported to affect deprived populations. This study assessed the association between socioeconomic status and head and neck cancer, aiming to explore how this association is related to differences of tobacco and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Methods We conducted a case-control study in Sao Paulo, Brazil (1998-2006), including 1017 incident cases of oral, pharyngeal and laryngeal cancer, and 951 sex- and age-matched controls. Education and occupation were distal determinants in the hierarchical approach; cumulative exposure to tobacco and alcohol were proximal risk factors. Outcomes of the hierarchical model were compared with fully adjusted ORs. Results Individuals with lower education (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.61 to 3.19) and those performing manual labour (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.92) had a higher risk of disease. However, 54% of the association with lower education and 45% of the association with manual labour were explained by proximal lifestyle exposures, and socioeconomic status remained significantly associated with disease when adjusted for smoking and alcohol consumption. Conclusions Socioeconomic differences in head and neck cancer are partially attributable to the distribution of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Additional mediating factors may explain the remaining variation of socioeconomic status on head and neck cancer.

The prospects for immunotherapy in smoking cessation

Context Smoking is a major preventable cause of death and disability that is maintained by dependence on nicotine. Smoking cessation reduces mortality and morbidity. Although existing pharmacological aids to smoking cessation and relapse prevention (nicotine replacement therapy and bupropion) improve on unassisted quitting and behavioural methods, they are only modestly effective. More effective pharmacological methods are required that improve compliance, reduce side-effects, and can be used in combination with existing cessation methods. Starting point A nicotine vaccine is a promising immunotherapeutic approach to smoking cessation and relapse prevention. Such a vaccine would induce the immune system to form specific antibodies to nicotine to prevent it from crossing the blood-brain barrier to act on receptor sites in the central nervous system. Recent studies in rats provide proof of principle by showing that nicotine-specific antibodies can prevent the reinstatement of nicotine self-administration (N Lindblom et al, Respiration 2002; 69: 254–60) and block dopamine release in the shell of the nucleus accumbens (Sde Villiers et al, Respiration 2002; 69: 247–53). A phase 1 trial of a human cocaine vaccine has also recently been successfully completed (T Kosten et al, Vaccine 2002; 20: 1196–204). A safe and effective human nicotine vaccine would potentially have fewer side-effects and better compliance than existing smoking-cessation pharmacotherapies. It could also be used in combination with some of them (eg, bupropion). Where next? The most promising clinical application of a human nicotine vaccine is likely to be in relapse prevention in abstinent smokers. A vaccine may also have a role in preparing smokers to quit. Clinical trials of safety and efficacy in human smokers and ex-smokers are warranted. If a nicotine vaccine proves to be safe and effective, the health-care system will need to ensure that it is registered for clinical use and that the poorer members of the community (among whom smoking prevalence is now highest in developed countries) have access to the vaccine. The community will need to be appropriately informed about the role of a nicotine vaccine to ensure that it is not prematurely used for preventive purposes in children and adolescents.