An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003

The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD) and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring–summer (AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 °C to 6.8 °C being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by further research whether and how far this result obtained from local analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related impacts on human, ecological and social systems.

Pollen dispersal properties of Poaceae and Cyperaceae: First estimates of their absolute pollen productivities

Pollen-trap results from the Swiss Alps 1996–2009 were used to assess the pollen dispersal–deposition properties of Poaceae (grasses) and Cyperaceae (sedges). Dispersal parameter values were investigated for a modified version of the Prentice–Sugita pollen dispersal–deposition model. Appropriate values (i.e. realistic in the field and allowing realistic modelling results) for wind speed are suggested to be in the range of 3–7 m s− 1 and for pollen an injection height of 0.03–0.1 m above the ground. The appropriate range of pollen injection height values for grasses and sedges differs from that of trees in the same area, suggesting different pollen dispersal properties between herbs and trees. In addition, logarithmic weighting of the vegetation was tested as an alternative to the modified Prentice–Sugita model. This yielded very similar results, suggesting that the use of such much simpler approximations of the pollen–vegetation relationship is a plausible alternative. Based on the modified Prentice–Sugita model, absolute pollen productivity for Poaceae was estimated to 7300 ± 400 grains cm− 2 year− 1 (1 SE). The data basis for Cyperaceae is smaller than for Poaceae, but the dispersal parameter values determined as appropriate for Poaceae yield good results. Absolute pollen productivity for Cyperaceae was estimated to 6300 ± 1100 grains cm− 2 year− 1 (1 SE).

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Contribution of APOBEC3G/F Activity to the Development of Low-Abundance Drug-Resistant HIV-1 variants.

Plasma drug-resistant minority HIV-1 variants (DRMV) increase the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI antiretroviral therapy (ART). The origin of DRMVs in ART-naive patients, however, remains unclear. In a large pan-European case-control study investigating the clinical relevance of pre-existing DRMVs using 454 pyrosequencing, the six most prevalent plasma DRMVs detected corresponded to G-to-A nucleotide mutations (V90I, V106I, V108I, E138K, M184I and M230I). Here, we evaluated if such DRMVs could have emerged from APOBEC3G/F activity. Out of 236 ART-naïve evaluated subjects, APOBEC3G/F hypermutation signatures were detected in plasma viruses of 14 (5.9%) individuals. Samples with minority E138K, M184I, and M230I mutations, but not those with V90I, V106I, or V108I were significantly associated with APOBEC3G/F activity (Fisher's p<0.005), defined as presence of >0.5% of sample sequences with an APOBEC3G/F signature. Mutations E138K, M184I and M230I co-occurred in the same sequence as APOBEC3G/F signatures in 3/9 (33%), 5/11 (45%) and 4/8 (50%) of samples, respectively; such linkage was not found for V90I, V106I or V108I. In-frame STOP codons were observed in 1.5% of all clonal sequences; 14.8% of them co-occurred with APOBEC3G/F signatures. APOBEC3G/F-associated E138K, M184I and M230I appeared within clonal sequences containing in-frame STOP codons in 2/3 (66%), 5/5 (100%) and 4/4 (100%) of the samples. In a reanalysis of the parent case-control study, presence of APOBEC3G/F signatures was not associated with virological failure. In conclusion, the contribution of APOBEC3G/F editing to the development of DRMVs is very limited and does not affect the efficacy of NNRTI ART.

Printed Narrative: The Festival Books for Archduke Ernest of Austria from Brussels and Antwerp 1594

Workshop „The Narrative in Eastern and Western Art“, Graduate School of Letters, Kyoto, 2-5 December 2013 Abstract by Ivo Raband, University of Berne Printed Narrative: The Festival Books for Ernest of Austria from Brussels and Antwerp 1594 During the early modern period the medium of the festival book became increasingly more important as an object of ‘political narration’ throughout Europe. Focusing on Netherlandish examples from the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, my talk will focus on the festival books printed for the Joyous Entries of Archduke Ernest of Austria (1553–1595). Ernest was appointed Governor General of the Netherlands by King Philipp II in 1593, being the first Habsburg Prince to reside in Brussels since 30 years. In Brussels and Antwerp, the Archduke was greeted with the traditional Blijde Imkomst, Joyous Entry, which dates back to the fourteenth century and was a necessity to actually become the sovereign of Brabant and Antwerp and to uphold the privileges of the cities. Decorated with ephemeral triumphal arches, stages, and tableaux vivants, both cities welcomed Ernest and, at the same time, demonstrated their civic self-assurance and negotiated their statuses. In honor of these events of civic power, the city magistrates commissioned festival books. These books combine a Latin text with a description of the events and the ephemeral structures, including circa 30 engravings and etchings. Being the only visual manifestation of the Joyous Entries, the books became important representational objects. The prints featured in festival books will be my point of departure for discussing the importance of narrative political prints and the concept of the early modern festival book as a ‘political object’. By comparing the prints from Ernest’s entries with others from the period between 1549 and 1635, I will show how the prints became as important as the event itself. Thus, I want to pose the question of whether it would have been possible to substitute a printed version of the event for the actual ceremony.

Twenty years' experience with the Swiss data registry for assisted reproductive medicine: outcomes, key trends and recommendations for improved practice.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY The impact of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on Swiss demography was quantified. From 1993 to 2012 the number of deliveries, including multiples, generated by ART was compared with overall delivery numbers. Swiss experts in ART collaborated in a consensus to increase successful outcomes, to reduce the incidence of complications of ART and to validate recommendations through statistical review of available data. METHODS Data generated between 1993 and 2012 and published by the Federal Office of Statistics (BfS) were compared with the Swiss database on ART (FIVNAT-CH) as organised by the Swiss Society of Reproductive Medicine (SGRM). From these analyses a panel of Swiss experts in ART extracted recommendations to improve current practice, to prevent complications related to ART and to recommend changes in current Swiss legislation dealing with ART. RESULTS Since 1993 the age of women giving birth rose together with the number of women asking for ART. This demographic trend was reflected in a rise in the number of deliveries generated by ART (in 2012: 2.2%) and the proportion of multiple births (in 2012: 17.6%). The outcome of ART was most negatively influenced by the age of the treated patient. The number of retrieved oocytes decisively impacted the likelihood of delivery, the risk of multiple births and the incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Optimal ovarian stimulation should be designed for the retrieval of 10 to 15 oocytes per treatment. Swiss legislation should enable and stimulate a policy of elective single embryo transfer to avoid multiple births.

What drives European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) mortality after forest fires of varying severity?

Predicting the timing and amount of tree mortality after a forest fire is of paramount importance for post-fire management decisions, such as salvage logging or reforestation. Such knowledge is particularly needed in mountainous regions where forest stands often serve as protection against natural hazards (e.g., snow avalanches, rockfalls, landslides). In this paper, we focus on the drivers and timing of mortality in fire-injured beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) in mountain regions. We studied beech forests in the southwestern European Alps, which burned between 1970 and 2012. The results show that beech trees, which lack fire-resistance traits, experience increased mortality within the first two decades post-fire with a timing and amount strongly related to the burn severity. Beech mortality is fast and ubiquitous in high severity sites, whereas small- (DBH <12 cm) and intermediate-diameter (DBH 12–36 cm) trees face a higher risk to die in moderate-severity sites. Large-diameter trees mostly survive, representing a crucial ecological legacy for beech regeneration. Mortality remains low and at a level similar to unburnt beech forests for low burn severity sites. Beech trees diameter, the presence of fungal infestation and elevation are the most significant drivers of mortality. The risk of beech to die increases toward higher elevation and is higher for small-diameter than for large-diameter trees. In case of secondary fungi infestation beech faces generally a higher risk to die. Interestingly, fungi that initiate post-fire tree mortality differ from fungi occurring after mechanical injury. From a management point of view, the insights about the controls of post-fire mortality provided by this study should help in planning post-fire silvicultural measures in montane beech forests.

Implications of Longterm Diameter-Limit Harvesting: Effects on Radial Growth of Red Spruce (Picea rubens) and Genetic Diversity of White Pine (Pinus strobus)

For over 3 centuries, diameter-limit harvesting has been a predominant logging method in the northeastern United States. Silvicultural theory asserts that such intensively selective harvesting can lead to genetic degradation. A decrease in softwood productivity has recently been reported in Maine - has a long history of dysgenic selection degraded the genetic resources of Maine softwoods, contributing to a decrease in growth and productivity? This study examines two aspects of potential implications of diameter-limit harvesting: effects on residual phenotypes of red spruce and impacts on genetic diversity of white pine. Radial growth of residual red spruce trees in stands experiencing 50 years of fixed diameter-limit harvesting was measured using annual increment rings and compared with residual red spruce trees in positive selection stands. Trees remaiaing after several rounds of diameter-limit harvesting exhibited sigdicantl y smaller radial sizes throughout their lives, and displayed significantly slower growth rates for the first 80 years of measured growth. These results strongly suggest that the largest and fastest-growing genotypes and their respective gene complexes determining good radial growth have been removed from the diameter-limit stand. Dysgenic selection can be observed in fixed diarneter-limit stands, resulting in a diminished genetic resource and decreased residual stand value. To examine more direct genetic implications of long-term diameter-limit harvesting, microsatellite DNA markers were implemented to study genetic diversity of eastern white pine in Maine. Three age groups of trees were studied: mature trees older than 200 years, juvenile trees 5-30 years old, and embryos. Trees were genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Overall genetic diversity levels of eastern white pine in Maine were extremely high, with an average observed heterozygosity of 0.762. Genetic differentiation was minimal among and between all three age groups, although an excess of heterozygotes was shown in the mature and juvenile groups that was not reflected in the embryo group, which actually had a slight heterozygote deficiency. Allele frequencies did not differ significantly between age groups, but did reveal more rare and low frequency alleles in the embryo groups than in the mature group. Overall, low frequency alleles comprise the largest portion of alleles in the sample population, with no common alleles evident overall. These results suggest that significant genetic degradation has either not occurred for white pine, or that the results of dysgenic selection have not yet emerged. It is clear, however, that selective harvesting could result in a loss of low frequency alleles, which are a primary reserve of evolutionary potential in a species. Implications of these studies affect industrial forestry, regional economics, and ecological concerns for the northeast. Long-term diameter-limit harvesting can lead to a degradation of residual phenotypes, and an overall decrease in stand quality. Potentially, a loss of low frequency, locally adapted alleles could result in a decrease of allelic richness and degradation of the regidnal genetic resource. Decreased genetic variation can lead to seriously limited evolutionary potential of species and ecosystems, particularly in rapidly changing environments. Based on these findings, I recommend a reassessment of any harvesting prescription that includes fixed diameter-limit removals, particularly for species that have low natural genetic diversity levels or a limited natural range, such as red spruce. Maintenance of a healthy genetic reserve can avoid effects of dysgenic harvesting.

Converting Land from Poplar Tree Bioenergy Planting to Cropland: An Example

Many landowners ask about the process and costs for returning land to crop production after trees are cut for biomass. A field on the Squaw Creek bottom, Story County, Iowa was planted to hybrid poplar trees in spring 2000. The trees were planted in rows with a 10-ft spacing. The trees were cut in spring 2010. The resulting field was four acres, and this is the account of the first corn crop in 2011 on the area.

Requerimiento hídrico en álamos de 6 años : Rivadavia, Mendoza (Argentina)

Durante tres años consecutivos se desarrolló el ensayo de riego en álamos de 6 años (Populus euramericana I-214), en el Departamento de Rivadavia, Mendoza, Argentina. El suelo es de textura franco-arenosa. El ensayo se estableció en cuatro bloques completos aleatorizados. El área unitaria fue de 192 m2, con un total de 20 árboles por parcela. Los Intervalos de Riego (IR) fueron 7,14 y 21 días. El número de riegos anuales fue de 21 y la evapotranspiración diaria del cultivo fue de 14.6 mm/día. Los resultados muestran que para el IR = 7 días la Evapotranspiración real (Etc) fue de 2.097 mm; para IR = 14 días fue de 1 467 mm y para IR = 21 días fue de 1 051 mm. El Coeficiente Kc de cultivo se obtuvo al relacionar la Etc con la Evapotranspiración potencial obtenida por la fórmula de Blaney y Criddle y del tanque de evaporación estándar tipo A. Los esultados fueron respectivamente: Kc = 2.95 y 2.06 para IR = 7 días; Kc = 2.07 y 1.45 para IR = 14 días y Kc = 1.47 y 1.05 para IR = 21 días. Del análisis estadístico del volumen de madera producido se concluye que el IR de 7 días fue el mejor para álamos de seis años.

Grapholita molesta : caracterización de una cría artificial

Grapholita molesta (Busck) es considerada plaga principal del duraznero en Mendoza. Sus larvas han sido criadas, en condiciones de laboratorio, con dietas naturales por diversos autores. Los objetivos fueron: 1. poner a punto la cría artificial de la especie; 2. diseñar una jaula para el apareamiento y la oviposición de los adultos; 3. evaluar la eficiencia de la jaula y la dieta larvaria mediante grados día, ciclo biológico, peso de pupas, recuperación de huevoadulto, fecundidad, viabilidad y longevidad. La cría artificial de una especie constituye una herramienta para profundizar sus conocimientos bioetoecológicos y, en consecuencia, aplicarlos en su control. En 1996 se fundó una cría con larvas salvajes alimentadas con manzanas verdes pequeñas del cv. Granny Smith. Los adultos se desarrollaron en una jaula especialmente diseñada. En el ciclo biológico, la recuperación huevo-adulto y la fecundidad se obtuvieron valores superiores a los citados por otros autores pero no ocurrió lo mismo con las otras variables. La cría artificial de Grapholita molesta (Busck) se logró desarrollar por 37 generaciones y la alta fecundidad obtenida es una clave fundamental en el éxito de su mantenimiento.

Requerimiento hídrico en álamos de siete años de edad : Rivadavia, Mendoza, Argentina

Durante tres años consecutivos se desarrolló el ensayo de riego en álamos de siete años (Populus x canadensis I-214) en el Departamento de Rivadavia, Mendoza, Argentina. El suelo es de textura franco-arenosa. El ensayo se estableció en cuatro bloques completos aleatorizados. La parcela unitaria fue de 192 m², con un total de 20 árboles. Los Intervalos de Riego (IR) utilizados fueron 7-14-21 días. Los resultados muestran que para el IR = 7 días la Evapotranspiración real (Etc) fue de 2.215 mm; para IR = 14 días de 1.372 mm y para IR = 21 días de 1.038 mm. El número de riegos anuales para IR = 7 días fue de 22 y la Evapotranspiración diaria del cultivo fue de 14,9 mm/día. El Coeficiente de cultivo (Kc) se obtuvo de relacionar la Etc con la Evapotranspiración potencial obtenida por la fórmula de Blaney y Criddle y por el tanque de evaporación estándar tipo A. Los resultados fueron respectivamente: Kc = 3 y 2,41 para IR = 7 días; Kc = 1,87 y 1,47 para IR = 14 días y Kc = 1,40 y 1,10 para IR = 21 días. Del análisis estadístico del volumen de madera producido se concluyó que el IR de 7 días resultó el más productivo para álamos de siete años.

Efectos de la carga frutal en durazneros

Para determinar el efecto de la carga frutal sobre el peso de frutos y la distribución de calibres se realizó un ensayo en durazneros variedades Bowen, Andross y Ross. Árboles en plena producción, conducidos en vaso tipo californiano e implantados a 6x5 m fueron raleados manualmente 20 días después de iniciado el endurecimiento de carozo. La carga frutal quedó establecida en el rango de 750 a 1 350 frutos/planta en Bowen y Ross y entre 850 y 1400 frutos/planta en Andross. Se realizaron evaluaciones de tamaño final de frutos, producción total y producción destinada a mitades. En las tres variedades se estableció un alto grado de correlación entre la carga frutal y los tres parámetros de evaluación y se observó una respuesta similar a diferentes niveles de carga frutal. A medida que se incrementó la carga frutal, se lograron aumentos en la producción total, aunque disminuyó el peso de frutos. La producción destinada a mitades aumentó en relación con la carga frutal, hasta alcanzar valores máximos con cargas de 1 150 frutos/planta. Luego se estabilizó y, superado un valor crítico en la carga frutal, empezó a disminuir. Para todo el rango de carga utilizado, el peso de frutos y la producción total fueron mayores en Ross. Esta variedad también logró los máximos valores de producción destinada a mitades. Andross superó a Bowen en los tres parámetros evaluados.