Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Paying the extinction debt: Woodland birds in the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia

Approximately 90% of the original woodlands of the Mount Lofty Ranges of South Australia has been cleared, modified or fragmented, most severely in the last 60 years, and affecting the avifauna dependent on native vegetation. This study identifies which woodland-dependent species are still declining in two different habitats, Pink GumBlue Gum woodland and Stringybark woodland. We analyse the Mount Lofty Ranges Woodland Bird Long-Term Monitoring Dataset for 1999-2007, to look for changes in abundance of 59 species. We use logistic regression of prevalence on lists in a Bayesian framework, and List Length Analysis to control for variation in detectability. Compared with Reporting Rate Analysis, a more traditional approach, List Length Analysis provides tighter confidence intervals by accounting for changing detectability. Several common species were declining significantly. Increasers were generally large-bodied generalists. Many birds have already disappeared from this modified and naturally isolated woodland island, and our results suggest that more specialist insectivores are likely to follow. The Mount Lofty Ranges can be regarded as a 'canary landscape' for temperate woodlands elsewhere in Australia without immediate action their bird communities are likely to follow the trajectory of the Mount Lofty Ranges avifauna. Alternatively, with extensive habitat restoration and management, we could avoid paying the extinction debt. © Royal Australasian Ornithologists Union 2011.

Not just what they want, but why they want it: Traditional market research to deep customer insights

Purpose This paper explores advantages and disadvantages of both traditional market research and deep customer insight methods in order to lay the platform for revealing how a relationship between these two domains could be optimised during firm-based innovation. Design/methodology/approach The paper reports on an empirical research study conducted with thirteen Australian based firms engaged in a design-led approach to innovation. Firms were facilitated through a design-led approach where the process of gathering deep customer insights was isolated and investigated further in comparison to traditional market research methods. Findings Results show that deep customer insight methods are able to provide fresh, non-obvious ways of understanding customer needs, problems and behaviours that can become the foundation of new business opportunities. Findings concluded that deep customer insights methods provide the critical layer to understand why customers do and don’t engage with businesses. Revealing why was not accessible in traditional market research methods. Research limitations/implications The theoretical outcome of this study is a complementary methods matrix, providing guidance on appropriate implementation of research methods in accordance with a project’s timeline to optimise the complementation of traditional market research methods with design-led customer engagement methods. Practical implications Deep customer insight methods provide fresh, non-obvious ways of understanding customer needs, problems and behaviours that can become the foundation of new business opportunities. It is hoped that those in a position of data collection are encouraged to experiment and use deep customer insight methods to connect with their customers on a meaningful level and translate these insights into value. Originality/value This paper provides original value to a new understanding how design techniques can be applied to compliment and strengthen existing market research strategies. This is crucial in an era where business competition hinges on a subtle and often intimate understanding of customer needs and behaviours.

What’s best for our lymphoedema patients? Have we lost the patient as an individual in the quest for good science?

In a recent issue of the Journal of Lymphoedema, Nickolaidis and Karlsson (2013) indicated that most of the standard treatments for lymphoedema patients were explored and developed early last century, and suggested that holistic assessment of the individual is critical for good outcomes, but that perhaps “less emphasis should be placed on manual lymphatic drainage (MLD) and more on compression, exercise and weight reduction.”

Generalized element load method for first- and second-order element solutions with element load effect

The finite element method in principle adaptively divides the continuous domain with complex geometry into discrete simple subdomain by using an approximate element function, and the continuous element loads are also converted into the nodal load by means of the traditional lumping and consistent load methods, which can standardise a plethora of element loads into a typical numerical procedure, but element load effect is restricted to the nodal solution. It in turn means the accurate continuous element solutions with the element load effects are merely restricted to element nodes discretely, and further limited to either displacement or force field depending on which type of approximate function is derived. On the other hand, the analytical stability functions can give the accurate continuous element solutions due to element loads. Unfortunately, the expressions of stability functions are very diverse and distinct when subjected to different element loads that deter the numerical routine for practical applications. To this end, this paper presents a displacement-based finite element function (generalised element load method) with a plethora of element load effects in the similar fashion that never be achieved by the stability function, as well as it can generate the continuous first- and second-order elastic displacement and force solutions along an element without loss of accuracy considerably as the analytical approach that never be achieved by neither the lumping nor consistent load methods. Hence, the salient and unique features of this paper (generalised element load method) embody its robustness, versatility and accuracy in continuous element solutions when subjected to the great diversity of transverse element loads.

Sense of modern heritage

As the society matures, there was an increasing pressure to preserve historic buildings. The economic cost in maintaining these important heritage legacies has become the prime consideration of every state. Dedicated intelligent monitoring systems supplementing the traditional building inspections will enable the stakeholder to carry out not only timely reactive response but also plan the maintenance in a more vigilant approach; thus, preventing further degradation which was very costly and difficult to address if neglected. The application of the intelligent structural health monitoring system in this case studies of ‘modern heritage’ buildings is on its infancy but it is an innovative approach in building maintenance. ‘Modern heritage’ buildings were the product of technological change and were made of synthetic materials such as reinforced concrete and steel. Architectural buildings that was very common in Oceania and The Pacific. Engineering problems that arose from this type of building calls for immediate engineering solution since the deterioration rate is exponential. The application of this newly emerging monitoring system will improve the traditional maintenance system on heritage conservation. Savings in time and resources can be achieved if only pathological results were on hand. This case study will validate that approach. This publication will serve as a position paper to the on-going research regarding application of (Structural Health Monitoring) SHM systems to heritage buildings in Brisbane, Australia. It will be investigated with the application of the SHM systems and devices to validate the integrity of the recent structural restoration of the newly re-strengthened heritage building, the Brisbane City Hall.

Destined to design? How and why Australian women choose to study industrial design

Despite over three decades of legislation and initiatives designed to tackle the traditional gender divide in the science, technology and design fields, only a quarter of the registered architects in Australia are women. There are no statistics available for other design disciplines, with little known about why women choose design as a career path and who or what influences this decision. This qualitative research addresses this knowledge gap, through semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted with 19 Australian women who completed an industrial (product) design degree. Thematic analysis revealed three key themes: childhood aptitude and exposure; significant experiences and people; and design as a serendipitous choice. The findings emphasise the importance of early exposure to design as a potential career choice, highlighting the critical role played by parents, teachers, professionals and social networks.

Parallel attentive visual tracking

The research reported here addresses the problem of detecting and tracking independently moving objects from a moving observer in real-time, using corners as object tokens. Corners are detected using the Harris corner detector, and local image-plane constraints are employed to solve the correspondence problem. The approach relaxes the restrictive static-world assumption conventionally made, and is therefore capable of tracking independently moving and deformable objects. Tracking is performed without the use of any 3-dimensional motion model. The technique is novel in that, unlike traditional feature-tracking algorithms where feature detection and tracking is carried out over the entire image-plane, here it is restricted to those areas most likely to contain-meaningful image structure. Two distinct types of instantiation regions are identified, these being the “focus-of-expansion” region and “border” regions of the image-plane. The size and location of these regions are defined from a combination of odometry information and a limited knowledge of the operating scenario. The algorithms developed have been tested on real image sequences taken from typical driving scenarios. Implementation of the algorithm using T800 Transputers has shown that near-linear speedups are achievable, and that real-time operation is possible (half-video rate has been achieved using 30 processing elements).

Improved Kalman filter initialisation using neurofuzzy estimation

It is traditional to initialise Kalman filters and extended Kalman filters with estimates of the states calculated directly from the observed (raw) noisy inputs, but unfortunately their performance is extremely sensitive to state initialisation accuracy: good initial state estimates ensure fast convergence whereas poor estimates may give rise to slow convergence or even filter divergence. Divergence is generally due to excessive observation noise and leads to error magnitudes that quickly become unbounded (R.J. Fitzgerald, 1971). When a filter diverges, it must be re initialised but because the observations are extremely poor, re initialised states will have poor estimates. The paper proposes that if neurofuzzy estimators produce more accurate state estimates than those calculated from the observed noisy inputs (using the known state model), then neurofuzzy estimates can be used to initialise the states of Kalman and extended Kalman filters. Filters whose states have been initialised with neurofuzzy estimates should give improved performance by way of faster convergence when the filter is initialised, and when a filter is re started after divergence

Three-dimensional printing in the construction industry: A review

3D printing (3Dp) has long been used in the manufacturing sector as a way to automate, accelerate production and reduce waste materials. It is able to build a wide variety of objects if the necessary specifications are provided to the printer and no problems are presented by the limited range of materials available. With 3Dp becoming cheaper, more reliable and, as a result, more prevalent in the world at large, it may soon make inroads into the construction industry. Little is known however, of 3Dp in current use the construction industry and its potential for the future and this paper seeks to rectify this situation by providing a review of the relevant literature. In doing this, the three main 3Dp methods of contour crafting, concrete printing and D-shape 3Dp are described which, as opposed to the traditional construction method of cutting materials down to size, deliver only what is needed for completion, vastly reducing waste. Also identified is 3Dp’s potential to enable buildings to be constructed many times faster and with significantly reduced labour costs. In addition, it is clear that construction 3Dp can allow the further inclusion of Building Information Modelling into the construction process - streamlining and improving the scheduling requirements of a project. However, current 3Dp processes are known to be costly, unsuited to large-scale products and conventional design approaches, and have a very limited range of materials that can be used. Moreover, the only successful examples of construction in action to date have occurred in controlled laboratory environments and, as real world trials have yet to be completed, it is yet to be seen whether it can be it equally proficient in practical situations. Key Words: 3D Printing; Contour Crafting; Concrete Printing; D-shape; Building Automation.

Centroid training to achieve effective text classification

Traditional text classification technology based on machine learning and data mining techniques has made a big progress. However, it is still a big problem on how to draw an exact decision boundary between relevant and irrelevant objects in binary classification due to much uncertainty produced in the process of the traditional algorithms. The proposed model CTTC (Centroid Training for Text Classification) aims to build an uncertainty boundary to absorb as many indeterminate objects as possible so as to elevate the certainty of the relevant and irrelevant groups through the centroid clustering and training process. The clustering starts from the two training subsets labelled as relevant or irrelevant respectively to create two principal centroid vectors by which all the training samples are further separated into three groups: POS, NEG and BND, with all the indeterminate objects absorbed into the uncertain decision boundary BND. Two pairs of centroid vectors are proposed to be trained and optimized through the subsequent iterative multi-learning process, all of which are proposed to collaboratively help predict the polarities of the incoming objects thereafter. For the assessment of the proposed model, F1 and Accuracy have been chosen as the key evaluation measures. We stress the F1 measure because it can display the overall performance improvement of the final classifier better than Accuracy. A large number of experiments have been completed using the proposed model on the Reuters Corpus Volume 1 (RCV1) which is important standard dataset in the field. The experiment results show that the proposed model has significantly improved the binary text classification performance in both F1 and Accuracy compared with three other influential baseline models.

Climate change, sustainability and science education

The world and its peoples are facing multiple, complex challenges and we cannot continue as we are (Moss, 2010). Earth‘s “natural capital” - nature‘s ability to provide essential ecosystem services to stabilize world climate systems, maintain water quality, support secure food production, supply energy needs, moderate environmental impacts, and ensure social harmony and equity – is seriously compromised (Gough, 2005; Hawkins, Lovins & Lovins, 1999). To further summarize, current rates of resource consumption by the global human population are unsustainable (Kitzes, Peller, Goldfinger & Wackernagel, 2007) for human and non-human species, and for future generations. Further, continuing growth in world population and global political commitment to growth economics compounds these demands. Despite growing recognition of the serious consequences for people and planet, little consideration is given, within most nations, to the social and environmental issues that economic growth brings. For example, Australia is recognised as one of the developed countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Yet, to date, responses (such as carbon pricing) have been small-scale, fragmented, and their worth disputed, even ridiculed. This is at a time referred to as ‘the critical decade’ (Hughes & McMichael, 2011) when the world’s peoples must make strong choices if we are to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

Improving muscular endurance with the MVe Fitness ChairTM in breast cancer survivors: A feasibility and efficacy study

Objectives To assess the feasibility and efficacy of delivering Pilates exercises for resistance training to breast cancer survivors using the MVe Fitness Chair™. Design Pilot randomized controlled trial. Methods Twenty-six female breast cancer survivors were randomized to use the MVe Fitness Chair™ (n = 8), traditional resistance training (n = 8), or a control group (no exercise) (CO) (n = 10). The MVe Fitness Chair™ and traditional resistance training groups completed 8 weeks of exercise. Muscular endurance was assessed pre and post-test for comparisons within and between groups using push ups, curl ups, and the Dynamic Muscular Endurance Test Battery for Cancer Patients of Various Ages. Results Feasibility of the MVe Fitness Chair™ was good, evidenced by over 80% adherence for both exercise groups and positive narrative feedback. Significant improvements in muscular endurance were observed in the MVe Fitness Chair™ (p < 0.002) and traditional resistance training groups (p < 0.001), but there were no differences in improvement between the MVe Fitness Chair™ and traditional resistance training groups (p < 0.711) indicating that Pilates and traditional resistance training may be equally effective at improving muscular endurance in this population. Conclusions The MVe Fitness Chair™ is feasible for use in breast cancer survivors. It appears to promote similar improvements in muscular endurance when compared to traditional resistance training, but has several advantages over traditional resistance training, including cost, logistics, enjoyment, and ease of learning.