Performance evaluation of an adaptive travel time prediction model

This paper presents a travel time prediction model and evaluates its performance and transferability. Advanced Travelers Information Systems (ATIS) are gaining more and more importance, increasing the need for accurate, timely and useful information to the travelers. Travel time information quantifies the traffic condition in an easy to understand way for the users. The proposed travel time prediction model is based on an efficient use of nearest neighbor search. The model is calibrated for optimal performance using Genetic Algorithms. Results indicate better performance by using the proposed model than the presently used naïve model.

Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Cluster-based network model for time-course gene expression data

We propose a model-based approach to unify clustering and network modeling using time-course gene expression data. Specifically, our approach uses a mixture model to cluster genes. Genes within the same cluster share a similar expression profile. The network is built over cluster-specific expression profiles using state-space models. We discuss the application of our model to simulated data as well as to time-course gene expression data arising from animal models on prostate cancer progression. The latter application shows that with a combined statistical/bioinformatics analyses, we are able to extract gene-to-gene relationships supported by the literature as well as new plausible relationships.

An epidemiological study of the relationship between time to surgery and health status for elderly patients with a hip fracture

A hip fracture causes permanent changes to life style for older people. Further, two important mortality indicators found post operatively for this group include, the time until surgery after fracture, and pre-operative health status prior to surgery, yet no research is available investigating relationships between time to surgery and health status. The researchers aimed to establish the health status risks for patients aged over 65 years with a non-pathological hip fracture to guide nursing care interventions. A prospective cohort design was used to investigate relationships between time to surgery and measures on pre-operative health status indicators including, skin integrity risk, vigor, mental state, bowel function and continence. Twenty-nine patients with a mean age in years of 81.93 (SD,9.49), were recruited. The mean number of hours from time 1 assessment to surgery was 52.72 (SD,58.35) and the range was 1 hour to 219 hours. At Time 2, the mean scores of vigor and skin integrity risk were significantly higher, indicating poorer health status. A change in health status occurred but possibly due to the small sample size it was difficult to relate this result to time. However the results informed preoperative care prior to surgery, for this group.

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) - genotyping of Community Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus, including the subtyping of PVL toxin producers using Real-Time PCR

Staphylococcus aureus is a common pathogen that causes a variety of infections including soft tissue infections, impetigo, septicemia toxic shock and scalded skin syndrome. Traditionally, Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was considered a Hospital-Acquired (HA) infection. It is now recognised that the frequency of infections with MRSA is increasing in the community, and that these infections are not originating from hospital environments. A 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that Staphylococcus aureus is the most important cause of serious and fatal infections in the USA. Community-Acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) are genetically diverse and distinct, meaning they are able to be identified and tracked by way of genotyping. Genotyping of MRSA using Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a rapid and robust method for monitoring MRSA, specifically ST93 (Queensland Clone) dissemination in the community. It has been shown that a large proportion of CA-MRSA infections in Queensland and New South Wales are caused by ST93. The rationale for this project was that SNP analysis of MLST genes is a rapid and cost-effective method for genotyping and monitoring MRSA dissemination in the community. In this study, 16 different sequence types (ST) were identified with 41% of isolates identified as ST93 making it the predominate clone. Males and Females were infected equally with an average patient age of 45yrs. Phenotypically, all of the ST93 had an identical antimicrobial resistance pattern. They were resistant to the β-lactams – Penicillin, Flu(di)cloxacillin and Cephalothin but sensitive to all other antibiotics tested. Virulence factors play an important role in allowing S. aureus to cause disease by way of colonising, replication and damage to the host. One virulence factor of particular interest is the toxin Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL), which is composed of two separate proteins encoded by two adjacent genes. PVL positive CA-MRSA are shown to cause recurrent, chronic or severe skin and soft tissue infections. As a result, it is important that PVL positive CA-MRSA is genotyped and tracked. Especially now that CA-MRSA infections are more prevalent than HA-MRSA infections and are now deemed endemic in Australia. 98% of all isolates in this study tested positive for the PVL toxin gene. This study showed that PVL is present in many different community based ST, not just ST93, which were all PVL positive. With this toxin becoming entrenched in CA-MRSA, genotyping would provide more accurate data and a way of tracking the dissemination. PVL gene can be sub-typed using an allele-specific Real-Time PCR (RT-PCR) followed by High resolution meltanalysis. This allows the identification of PVL subtypes within the CA-MRSA population and allow the tracking of these clones in the community.

The potential to mitigate global warming with no-tillage management is only realized when practised in the long term

No-tillage (NT) management has been promoted as a practice capable of offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of its ability to sequester carbon in soils. However, true mitigation is only possible if the overall impact of NT adoption reduces the net global warming potential (GWP) determined by fluxes of the three major biogenic GHGs (i.e. CO2, N2O, and CH4). We compiled all available data of soil-derived GHG emission comparisons between conventional tilled (CT) and NT systems for humid and dry temperate climates. Newly converted NT systems increase GWP relative to CT practices, in both humid and dry climate regimes, and longer-term adoption (>10 years) only significantly reduces GWP in humid climates. Mean cumulative GWP over a 20-year period is also reduced under continuous NT in dry areas, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Emissions of N2O drive much of the trend in net GWP, suggesting improved nitrogen management is essential to realize the full benefit from carbon storage in the soil for purposes of global warming mitigation. Our results indicate a strong time dependency in the GHG mitigation potential of NT agriculture, demonstrating that GHG mitigation by adoption of NT is much more variable and complex than previously considered, and policy plans to reduce global warming through this land management practice need further scrutiny to ensure success.

Analytical and numerical solutions for the time and space-symmetric fractional diffusion equation

We consider a time and space-symmetric fractional diffusion equation (TSS-FDE) under homogeneous Dirichlet conditions and homogeneous Neumann conditions. The TSS-FDE is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by a Caputo fractional derivative, and the second order space derivative by a symmetric fractional derivative. First, a method of separating variables expresses the analytical solution of the TSS-FDE in terms of the Mittag--Leffler function. Second, we propose two numerical methods to approximate the Caputo time fractional derivative: the finite difference method; and the Laplace transform method. The symmetric space fractional derivative is approximated using the matrix transform method. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the numerical methods and to confirm the theoretical claims.

The capture/retention investigation of a gross pollutant trap

A technique was developed to investigate the capture/retention characteristic of a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked internal screens. Custom modified spheres of variable density filled with liquid were released into the GPT inlet and monitored at the outlet. The outlet data shows that the capture/retention performances of a GPT with fully blocked screens deteriorate rapidly. During higher flow rates, screen blockages below 68% approach maximum efficiency. At lower flow rates, the high performance trend is reversed and the variation in behaviour of pollutants with different densities becomes more noticeable. Additional experiments with a second upstream inlet configured GPT showed an improved capture/retention performance. It was also noted that the bypass allows the incoming pollutants to escape when the GPT is blocked. This useful feature prevents upstream blockages between cleaning intervals.

Stability and convergence of an effective numerical method for the time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a nonlinear source term

Fractional Fokker-Planck equations (FFPEs) have gained much interest recently for describing transport dynamics in complex systems that are governed by anomalous diffusion and nonexponential relaxation patterns. However, effective numerical methods and analytic techniques for the FFPE are still in their embryonic state. In this paper, we consider a class of time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equations with a nonlinear source term (TSFFPE-NST), which involve the Caputo time fractional derivative (CTFD) of order α ∈ (0, 1) and the symmetric Riesz space fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ ∈ (1, 2). Approximating the CTFD and RSFD using the L1-algorithm and shifted Grunwald method, respectively, a computationally effective numerical method is presented to solve the TSFFPE-NST. The stability and convergence of the proposed numerical method are investigated. Finally, numerical experiments are carried out to support the theoretical claims.

Computationally efficient numerical methods for time- and space-fractional Fokker–Planck equations

Fractional Fokker–Planck equations have been used to model several physical situations that present anomalous diffusion. In this paper, a class of time- and space-fractional Fokker–Planck equations (TSFFPE), which involve the Riemann–Liouville time-fractional derivative of order 1-α (α(0, 1)) and the Riesz space-fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ(1, 2), are considered. The solution of TSFFPE is important for describing the competition between subdiffusion and Lévy flights. However, effective numerical methods for solving TSFFPE are still in their infancy. We present three computationally efficient numerical methods to deal with the RSFD, and approximate the Riemann–Liouville time-fractional derivative using the Grünwald method. The TSFFPE is then transformed into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which is solved by the fractional implicit trapezoidal method (FITM). Finally, numerical results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods. These techniques can also be applied to solve other types of fractional partial differential equations.

Analytical and numerical solutions for the time and space-symmetric fractional diffusion equation

We consider a time and space-symmetric fractional diffusion equation (TSS-FDE) under homogeneous Dirichlet conditions and homogeneous Neumann conditions. The TSS-FDE is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by the Caputo fractional derivative and the second order space derivative by the symmetric fractional derivative. Firstly, a method of separating variables is used to express the analytical solution of the tss-fde in terms of the Mittag–Leffler function. Secondly, we propose two numerical methods to approximate the Caputo time fractional derivative, namely, the finite difference method and the Laplace transform method. The symmetric space fractional derivative is approximated using the matrix transform method. Finally, numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the numerical methods and to confirm the theoretical claims.

Dwell-time and run-time control for DC mass rapid transit railways

Dwell times at stations and inter-station run times are the two major operational parameters to maintain train schedule in railway service. Current practices on dwell-time and run-time control are that they are only optimal with respect to certain nominal traffic conditions, but not necessarily the current service demand. The advantages of dwell-time and run-time control on trains are therefore not fully considered. The application of a dynamic programming approach, with the aid of an event-based model, to devise an optimal set of dwell times and run times for trains under given operational constraints over a regional level is presented. Since train operation is interactive and of multi-attributes, dwell-time and run-time coordination among trains is a multi-dimensional problem. The computational demand on devising trains' instructions, a prime concern in real-time applications, is excessively high. To properly reduce the computational demand in the provision of appropriate dwell times and run times for trains, a DC railway line is divided into a number of regions and each region is controlled by a dwell- time and run-time controller. The performance and feasibility of the controller in formulating the dwell-time and run-time solutions for real-time applications are demonstrated through simulations.

Examination of relationships between urban form, household activities, and time allocation in the Atlanta Metropolitan Region

A substantial body of research is focused on understanding the relationships between socio-demographics, land-use characteristics, and mode specific attributes on travel mode choice and time-use patterns. Residential and commercial densities, inter-mixing of land uses, and route directness in conjunction with transportation performance characteristics interact to influence accessibility to destinations as well as time spent traveling and engaging in activities. This study uniquely examines the activity durations undertaken for out-of-home subsistence; maintenance, and discretionary activities. Also examined are total tour durations (summing all activity categories within a tour). Cross-sectional activities are obtained from household activity travel survey data from the Atlanta Metropolitan Region. Time durations allocated to weekdays and weekends are compared. The censoring and endogeneity between activity categories and within individuals are captured using multiple equations Tobit models. The analysis and modeling reveal that land-use characteristics such as net residential density and the number of commercial parcels within a kilometer of a residence are associated with differences in weekday and weekend time-use allocations. Household type and structure are significant predictors across the three activity categories, but not for overall travel times. Tour characteristics such as time-of-day and primary travel mode of the tours also affect traveler's out-of-home activity-tour time-use patterns.

Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior

In order to examine time allocation patterns within household-level trip-chaining, simultaneous doubly-censored Tobit models are applied to model time-use behavior within the context of household activity participation. Using the entire sample and a sub-sample of worker households from Tucson's Household Travel Survey, two sets of models are developed to better understand the phenomena of trip-chaining behavior among five types of households: single non-worker households, single worker households, couple non-worker households, couple one-worker households, and couple two-worker households. Durations of out-of-home subsistence, maintenance, and discretionary activities within trip chains are examined. Factors found to be associated with trip-chaining behavior include intra-household interactions with the household types and their structure and household head attributes.

Fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction with time-varying flow rates

Fuzzy logic has been applied to control traffic at road junctions. A simple controller with one fixed rule-set is inadequate to minimise delays when traffic flow rate is time-varying and likely to span a wide range. To achieve better control, fuzzy rules adapted to the current traffic conditions are used.