How Climate and Vegetation Influence the fire Regime of the Alaskan Boreal Biome: The Holocene Perspective

We synthesize recent results from lake-sediment studies of Holocene fire-climate-vegetation interactions in Alaskan boreal ecosystems. At the millennial time scale, the most robust feature of these records is an increase in fire occurrence with the establishment of boreal forests dominated by Picea mariana: estimated mean fire-return intervals decreased from ≥300 yrs to as low as ∼80 yrs. This fire-vegetation relationship occurred at all sites in interior Alaska with charcoal-based fire reconstructions, regardless of the specific time of P. mariana arrival during the Holocene. The establishment of P. mariana forests was associated with a regional climatic trend toward cooler/wetter conditions. Because such climatic change should not directly enhance fire occurrence, the increase in fire frequency most likely reflects the influence of highly flammable P. mariana forests, which are more conducive to fire ignition and spread than the preceding vegetation types (tundra, and woodlands/forests dominated by Populus or Picea glauca). Increased lightning associated with altered atmospheric circulation may have also played a role in certain areas where fire frequency increased around 4000 calibrated years before present (BP) without an apparent increase in the abundance of P. mariana. When viewed together, the paleo-fire records reveal that fire histories differed among sites in the same modern fire regime and that the fire regime and plant community similar to those of today became established at different times. Thus the spatial array of regional fire regimes was non-static through the Holocene. However, the patterns and causes of the spatial variation remain largely unknown. Advancing our understanding of climate-fire-vegetation interactions in the Alaskan boreal biome will require a network of charcoal records across various ecoregions, quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions, and improved knowledge of how sedimentary charcoal records fire events.

Dois ensaios em finanças

In the first chapter, we test some stochastic volatility models using options on the S&P 500 index. First, we demonstrate the presence of a short time-scale, on the order of days, and a long time-scale, on the order of months, in the S&P 500 volatility process using the empirical structure function, or variogram. This result is consistent with findings of previous studies. The main contribution of our paper is to estimate the two time-scales in the volatility process simultaneously by using nonlinear weighted least-squares technique. To test the statistical significance of the rates of mean-reversion, we bootstrap pairs of residuals using the circular block bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1992). We choose the block-length according to the automatic procedure of Politis and White (2004). After that, we calculate a first-order correction to the Black-Scholes prices using three different first-order corrections: (i) a fast time scale correction; (ii) a slow time scale correction; and (iii) a multiscale (fast and slow) correction. To test the ability of our model to price options, we simulate options prices using five different specifications for the rates or mean-reversion. We did not find any evidence that these asymptotic models perform better, in terms of RMSE, than the Black-Scholes model. In the second chapter, we use Brazilian data to compute monthly idiosyncratic moments (expected skewness, realized skewness, and realized volatility) for equity returns and assess whether they are informative for the cross-section of future stock returns. Since there is evidence that lagged skewness alone does not adequately forecast skewness, we estimate a cross-sectional model of expected skewness that uses additional predictive variables. Then, we sort stocks each month according to their idiosyncratic moments, forming quintile portfolios. We find a negative relationship between higher idiosyncratic moments and next-month stock returns. The trading strategy that sells stocks in the top quintile of expected skewness and buys stocks in the bottom quintile generates a significant monthly return of about 120 basis points. Our results are robust across sample periods, portfolio weightings, and to Fama and French (1993)’s risk adjustment factors. Finally, we identify a return reversal of stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness. Specifically, stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness have high contemporaneous returns. That tends to reverse, resulting in negative abnormal returns in the following month.

Neogene radiolarian datum levels in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans

Fifty radiolarian events of early Pleistocene and Neogene age were identified in an E-W transect of equatorial DSDP sites, extending from the Gulf of Panama to the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. Our objective was to document the degree of synchroneity or time-transgressiveness of stratigraphically-useful datum levels from this geologic time interval. We restricted our study to low latitudes within which morphological variations of individual taxa are minimal, the total assemblage diversity remains high, and stratigraphic continuity is well-documented by an independent set of criteria. Each of the five sites chosen (503, 573, 289/586, 214) was calibrated to an "absolute" time scale, using a multiple of planktonic foraminiferal, nannofossil, and diatom datum levels which have been independently correlated to the paleomagnetic polarity time scale in piston core material. With these correlations we have assigned "absolute" ages to each radiolarian event, with a precision of 0.1-0.2 m.y. and an accuracy of 0.2-0.4 m.y. On this basis we have classified each of the events as either: (a) synchronous (range of ages <0.4 m.y.); (b) time-transgressive (i.e., range of ages >1.0 m.y.); and (c) not resolvable (range of ages 0.4-1.0 m.y.). Our results show that, among the synchronous datum levels, a large majority (15 out of 19) are last occurrences. Among those events which are clearly time-transgressive, most are first appearances (10 out of 13). In many instances taxa appear to evolve first in the Indian Ocean, and subsequently in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is particularly unexpected in view of the strong east-to-west zonal flow in equatorial latitudes. Three of the time-transgressive events have been used to define zonal boundaries: the first appearances of Spongaster pentas, Diartus hughesi, and D. petterssoni. Our results suggest that biostratigraphic non-synchroneity may be substantial (i.e., greater than 1 m.y.) within a given latitudinal zone; one would expect this effect to be even more pronounced across oceanographic and climatic gradients. We anticipate that the extent of diachroneity may be comparable for diatom, foraminiferal, and nannofossil datum levels as well. If this proves true, global "time scales" may need to be re-formulated on the basis of a smaller number of demonstrably synchronous events.

Foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopic measurements from 5 sites of southern Atlantic and Pacific

The stratigraphy and paleoceanography of the late Miocene and early Pliocene have been examined at six sites in the South Atlantic and southwest Pacific oceans: Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) sites 284, 516A, 519, 588, and 590 and two piston cores from Chain cruise 115. A consistent stratigraphy was developed among sites using graphic correlation, which resulted in age models for all sites that are tied to the revised paleomagnetic time scale of Berggren et al. (1985). Applying these chronologies, we assessed latitudinal and interocean contrasts in the stratigraphic ranges of late Miocene-early Pliocene planktonic foraminiferal and nanno - fossil datums. Salient stratigraphic results include (1) The last appearance datum (LAD) of Globoquadrina dehiscens is a late Miocene (approx. 6.4 Ma) event in the subtropics and is not useful for the placement of the Miocene/Pliocene (M/P) boundary in this biogeographic province. (2) The first appearance datum (FAD) of Globorotalia crassaformis occurred at 5.1 Ma in the South Atlantic near the M/P boundary, suggesting that Gr. crassaformis may have first evolved in the South Atlantic and later migrated to other regions. (3) In the southwest Pacific, the FADs of Gr. margaritae (5.97 Ma), Gr. puncticulata (5.09 Ma), and Gr. crassaformis (4.87 Ma) are significantly time transgressive between temperate and warm subtropical regions. Time lags of 1.0 m.y. were required for these species to adapt to physical and/or biotic conditions peripheral to their endemic biogeographic provinces. (4) Between the subtropics of the South Atlantic and southwest Pacific, many planktonic foraminiferal datums (FAD of Dentogloboquadrina altispira, Gr. cibaoensis, Gr. conomiozea, Gr. margaritae, and Gq. dehiscens and LAD of Gr. cibaoensis) markedly depart from the correlation suggested by magnetostratigraphy, indicating that these datum levels are unreliable for correlation between these ocean basins. (5) In contrast, available calcareous nannofossil datum levels fall on or near the paleomagnetic correlation line, indicating synchroneity of events within the subtropics. (6) Biostratigraphic, magnetic, and 87Sr/86Sr correlation between sites 588 and 519 and the M/P neostratotype at Capo Rossello, Sicily, suggests that the base of the Zanclean stratotype occurs at 5.1-5.0 Ma in the lower reversed subchron of the Gilbert, about 2-3 * 10**5 years above the Gilbert/Chron 5 boundary. Oxygen isotopic results from DSDP sites 284, 519, and CH115 piston cores confirm a prolonged benthic d18O increase in the latest Miocene between 5.6 and 5.0 Ma, as originally proposed by Shackleton and Kennett (1975). At DSDP site 588, the benthic d18O record in the latest Miocene is marked by high-frequency fluctuations with amplitude variations of 0.5per mill, and a long-period wavelength component of 400,000 years. Maximum d18O values, however, occurred during the late Miocene (Kapitean Stage) between 5.5 and 5.1 Ma. The late Miocene d18O changes resulted from mid- and high-latitude cooling and pulses of ice sheet expansion and contraction. Glacial events were most intense during the latest Miocene (Kapitean Stage), and occurred at 5.50-5.35 Ma and at 5.10 Ma. Glacial events are estimated to have lowered sea level by 40 to 60 m and contributed to the isolation and desiccation of the Mediterranean Basin during the late Messinian. Interglacial conditions prevailed at 5.2 Ma and between 5.0 and 4.1 Ma in the early Pliocene. The beginning of the Pliocene was marked by changes in many proxy climatic indicators at all sites, suggesting a prolonged interval of warm, interglacial conditions between 5.0 and 4.1 Ma during the earliest Pliocene.

Upper Eocene to Oligocene strontium, carbon and oxygen isotope record of DSDP holes

We improved upper Eocene to Oligocene deep-sea chronostratigraphic control by integrating isotope (87Sr/86Sr, delta18O, delta13C) stratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy. Most previous attempts to establish the timing of isotope fluctuations have relied upon biostratigraphic age estimates which have uncertainties of 0.5 to over 4.0 m.y. Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 522 contains the best available upper Eocene to Oligocene magnetostratigraphic record which allows first-order correlations of isotope records (87Sr/86Sr, delta18O, delta13C) to the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale (GPTS). Empirical calibrations between the 87Sr/86Sr of foraminifera and magnetochronology at Site 522 allow more precise correlation of ,unknown' samples with the GPTS. For example, shallow water and high-latitude sections may be tied into the deep-sea record. Sr-isotope stratigraphic resolution for the latest Eocene to Oligocene is approximately 2 m.y.

Paleomagnetic and stable isotope measurements and distribution of benthic foraminifera in sediment core PS1388-3 from the Antarctic continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea

A stable isotope record from the eastern Weddell Sea from 69°S is presented. For the first time, a 250,000-yr record from the Southern Ocean can be correlated in detail to the global isotope stratigraphy. Together with magnetostratigraphic, sedimentological and micropalaeontological data, the stratigraphic control of this record can be extended back to 910,000 yrs B.P. A time scale is constructed by linear interpolation between confirmed stratigraphic data points. The benthic d18O record (Epistominella exigua) reflects global continental ice volume changes during the Brunhes and late Matuyama chrons, whereas the planktonic isotopic record (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma) may be influenced by a meltwater lid caused by the nearby Antarctic ice shelf and icebergs. The worldwide climatic improvement during deglaciations is documented in the eastern Weddell Sea by an increase in production of siliceous plankton followed, with a time lag of approximately 10,000 yrs, by planktonic foraminifera production. Peak values in the difference between planktonic and benthic d13C records, which are 0.5 per mil higher during warm climatic periods than during times with expanded continental ice sheets, also suggest increased surface productivity during interglacials in the Southern Ocean.

(Appendix) Relative abundance of planktonic foraminifera in ODP Site 138-846 late Quaternary sediments

High-resolution records of d18O and relative abundances of planktonic foraminifers were generated for ODP Leg 138 Site 846 for the past 800 k.y., with an average sampling interval of 3.6 k.y. The time scale was constructed by correlating the benthic d18O record to the SPECMAP and ODP Site 677 d18O time scales using the mapping function technique of Martinson et al. (1981). Our observations show that variations in the foraminiferal assemblages, although influenced by dissolution, are interpretable in terms of changing characteristics of upper ocean waters. Carbonate dissolution as indicated by fragmentation of planktonic foraminifers shows concentrated variance that is coherent with d18O at the 100 and 41 k.y. orbital periods. At these periods, maximum dissolution occurs during interglacial extremes. This finding differs from previous studies that have indicated that in this region percent carbonate minimum lags global ice volume minimum. N. dutertrei and dextral N. pachyderma dominate the assemblages, but do not show consistent relationships relative to glacial-interglacial cycles. However, less abundant species G. ruber, G. menardii, G. glutinata and G. sacculifer show positive and G. bulloides negative correlation with the d18O record. Q-mode factor analysis of the Site 846 assemblages and comparison with modern assemblages suggest the following. Prior to and during interglacials, the area was considerably warmer and more subtropical than at present; during glacials, the area was colder than at present with greater upwelling and advection off the eastern boundary, and possibly a stronger Peru Current; the equatorial ôcool tongueö was also possibly stronger.

Distribution of grain size and clay minerals in surface sediments of the Kara Sea (Fig 4, 5)

In this paper, we summarize data on terrigenous sediment supply in the Kara Sea and its accumulation and spatial and temporal variability during Holocene times. Sedimentological, organic-geochemical, and micropaleontological proxies determined in surface sediments allow to characterize the modern (riverine) terrigenous sediment input. AMS-14C dated sediment cores from the Ob and Yenisei estuaries and the adjacent inner Kara Sea were investigated to determine the terrigenous sediment fluxes and their relationship to paleoenvironmental changes. The variability of sediment fluxes during Holocene times is related to the post-glacial sea-level rise and changes in river discharge and coastal erosion input. Whereas during the late/middle Holocene most of the terrigenous sediments were deposited in the estuaries and the areas directly off the estuaries, huge amounts of sediments accumulated on the Kara Sea shelf farther north during the early Holocene before about 9 cal kyr BP. The maximum accumulation at that time is related to the lowered sea level, increased coastal erosion, and increased river discharge. Based on sediment thickness charts, echograph profiles and sediment core data, we estimate an average Holocene (0-11 cal kyr BP) annual accumulation of 194,106 t/yr of total sediment for the whole Kara Sea. Based on late Holocene (modern) sediment accumulation in the estuaries, probably 12,106 t/yr of riverine suspended matter (i.e. about 30% of the input) may escape the marginal filter on a geological time scale and is transported onto the open Kara Sea shelf. The high-resolution magnetic susceptibility record of a Yenisei core suggests a short-term variability in Siberian climate and river discharge on a frequency of 300-700 yr. This variability may reflect natural cyclic climate variations to be seen in context with the interannual and interdecadal environmental changes recorded in the High Northern Latitudes over the last decades, such as the NAO/AO pattern. A major decrease in MS values starting near 2.5 cal kyr BP, being more pronounced during the last about 2 cal kyr BP, correlates with a cooling trend over Greenland as indicated in the GISP-2 Ice Core, extended sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic, and advances of glaciers in western Norway. Our still preliminary interpretation of the MS variability has to be proven by further MS records from additional cores as well as other high-resolution multi-proxy Arctic climate records.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

(Table S1) Age determination of ODP Site 165-1002

A series of 14C measurements in Ocean Drilling Program cores from the tropical Cariaco Basin, which have been correlated to the annual-layer counted chronology for the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, provides a high-resolution calibration of the radiocarbon time scale back to 50,000 years before the present. Independent radiometric dating of events correlated to GISP2 suggests that the calibration is accurate. Reconstructed 14C activities varied substantially during the last glacial period, including sharp peaks synchronous with the Laschamp and Mono Lake geomagnetic field intensity minimal and cosmogenic nuclide peaks in ice cores and marine sediments. Simulations with a geochemical box model suggest that much of the variability can be explained by geomagnetically modulated changes in 14C production rate together with plausible changes in deep-ocean ventilation and the global carbon cycle during glaciation.

(Table 2) Oxygen and carbon isotope composition of planktonic foraminiferal species from DSDP Holes 93-603B and 93-604, and one benthic species from Hole 93-604

Holes 603C and 604 of DSDP Leg 93 were drilled on the western Atlantic continental rise at water depths of 4633 m and 2364 m, respectively. In Hole 603C, a nearly continuous, undisturbed, and complete section of Pliocene and lower Pleistocene sediments was recovered by hydraulic piston coring; in Hole 604, a section of uppermost Miocene to Pleistocene sediments was incompletely recovered by rotary coring. In order to reconstruct the Pliocene and Pleistocene history of isotopic variations, 139 oxygen and carbon isotope values were determined for planktonic and monospecific benthic foraminifer samples from these holes. Large parts of the Pleistocene history could not, however, be documented because sample intervals were large and sediments at Site 604 were redeposited. Time correlation is based on magnetostratigraphic (Hole 603C) and micropaleontologic (Hole 603C, Site 604) interpretation. Stable isotope analyses were carried out on the planktonic foraminiferal species Globigerinoides ruber, G. obliquus, and Globorotalia inflata from Hole 603C (48 analyses) and from Site 604 (48 analyses); at Site 604, the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina peregrina (43 analyses) was also studied through the section. Age calibration for Hole 603C is based on the magnetostratigraphy of Canninga et al. (1987; doi:10.2973/dsdp.proc.93.130.1987), which uses the time scale of Lowrie and Alvarez (1981).

Aragonite content, stable oxygen isotopes of Globigerioides ruber, and age of ODP Site 166-1006 sediments

The 1.4-m.y.-long stable oxygen isotope record of Site 1006 in the low-latitude North Atlantic Ocean shows large glacial/interglacial amplitude changes caused by a combination of temperature and salinity fluctuations. A trend of increased sea-surface temperatures during the interglacial periods is present in the record beginning at isotopic Stage 11 and ultimately leading to the lightest d18O values in isotopic Stages 9, 5, and 1. Maximum d18O values are recorded during glacial isotopic Stages 6 and 8. Stable isotopic variability increased during the Brunhes Chron at the 100-ka time scale. The large amplitude changes can best be explained by global and regional ocean circulation changes. Increased strengthened return flow of warm salty water from the Pacific may have occurred during interglacial periods since isotopic Stage 11, which was largely reduced during glacial periods. The large climate fluctuations had a profound effect on the shallow-water carbonate production of the Great Bahama Bank. The aragonite content of the sediments shows fluctuations that follow the d18O record. The leeward side of the Great Bahama Bank received increased input of platform material during sea-level highstands when the sea-surface waters were warm.