O que é que o reeleito tem? O retorno: o esboço de uma teoria da reeleição no Brasil

This article compares the determinants of electoral success in two consecutive Brazilian legislative elections, 1998 and 2002. There is a clear difference between both periods that renders the comparison especially interesting. In 1998 the incumbent president was running for reelection whereas in 2002 it was an open seat contest. We hypothesize that in 1998 the proximity of the Federal Deputy with the president and the allocation of federal monies controlled by the Executive Branch played a more significant role in affecting reelection success than in 2002. Hence, if the President is himself running for reelection is an important intervening contextual variable in understanding reelection success of Federal Deputies.

Câmbio, especulação e juros no modelo da Teoria Geral

This short chapter aims to make an adaptation to a small and financially integrated economy of the monetary / financial model presented by J. M. Keynes in his General Theory of Employment, interest and money. So, this has as a goal, particularly, to adapt the chapters 15 and 17 of the General Theory basically concerned to the speculative motivations to define the composition of the assets portfolio.

Os dois métodos e o núcleo duro da teoria econômica

While methodological sciences have no object and are supposed to adopt a hypothetical-deductive method, substantive sciences including economics should use an empirical or historical-deductive method. The great classical economists and Keynes did that and were able to develop open models explaining how equally open economic systems work. Thus, the hard core of relevant economics is formed by the classical microeconomics and the classical theory of capitalist economic growth, and by Keynesian macroeconomics. In contrast, neoclassical economist aiming to build a mathematical science wrongly adopted the hypothetical-deductive method, and came to macroeconomic and growth models that do not have practical use in policymaking. The exception is Marshall's microeconomics that does not provide a model of real economic systems, but is useful to the analysis of markets.

Michal Kalecki, um pioneiro da teoria econômica do desenvolvimento

Kalecki made important contributions to development economics, which rank him among the founding fathers of this area of our discipline. The objective of this paper is to give an account of his contributions, and in particular of his conception of the peculiarities and the way of functioning of the underdeveloped economies, and of the barriers that limits their capacity for high and sustained long run growth. As most socialist economists of his time, he was skeptic about the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment under capitalism. However, in contradistinction to other pioneers of development economics, Kalecki did not stress the international forces that hamper development, but put the accent rather in the internal institutions and social and political determinants. In particular, the feudal and semi-feudal conditions in agriculture, the reduced market ensuing from income concentration and widespread monopolization of the economy, and the lack of willingness of entrepreneurs to carry out the necessary investments. Accordingly, his economic policy recommendations emphasized also the domestic aspects involved.

Validade condicional do equilíbrio na Teoria Geral de Keynes

It discusses that the equilibrium in Economics, as a method of analysis, has a conditional utility, when it is not necessary its association with ideal situations and with a constancy of structural parameters of the system. Keynes (1936) appears as an example of a good utilization of that method, for he doesn't link it with notions of social optimum or with a necessary system's structural stability.

Os efeitos da política educacional no crescimento econômico: teoria e estimativas dinâmicas em painel de dados

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that considers a non-linear relationship between growth and level of education (human capital). Our econometric estimates demonstrated the causality running from human capital to GDP per capita with U inverted shape. The level of education (human capital) that generates the maximum growth rate lies around 4.5 years. The foremost implication of this result is that States with level of education below this range should have as priority educational policies.

A teoria da perspectiva e as mudanças de preferência no mainstream: um prospecto Lakatoseano

The theory of the perspective and the changes of preference in the mainstream: a Lakatosean prospect. For many decades over the 20th Century, the mainstream of economics adopted a normative and axiomatic theory of individual behavior in which maximizing procedures were carried out by rationally unbounded agents. This status has been challenged on many grounds and alternative views from fields like psychology have found a way into the core of economics research frontier. Prospect theory, developed by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky since the 1970s, has provided a more empirical, inductive and descriptive theory of decision making. It has made significant inroads into mainstream microeconomics, shaking the habits of some of its practitioners. This paper first takes stock of its main developments and then uses a Lakatosian framework to draw out its negative and positive heuristics. In what follows, its heuristics are compared to those of traditional rational decision-making theories. The differences between them are highlighted, pointing to changes in the mainstream of the profession and to new opportunities for research.

Integração financeira, poupança externa e convergência de renda: teoria e evidência

The conventional argument favoring capital controls elimination is based on the predictions from the neoclassical model: free international capital mobility would allow capital flows from country where capital is abundant to countries where capital is scarce and the outcome in a global perspective is efficient allocation of savings and income convergence. Within this perspective, financial integration would be particularly beneficial for developing countries resulting in external savings import, temporary increase in per-capita GDP growth rate and a permanent increase in the per-capita GDP level. Using data for a sample of 105 countries from 1980 to 2004 the evidences show that capitals flows from developing to developed countries and that international financial integration and external savings do not increase the conditional convergence rate.

Teoria das finanças funcionais e o papel da política fiscal: uma crítica pós-keynesiana ao novo consenso macroeconômico

Theory of functional finance and the role of fiscal policy: A post-keynesian critique to the new consensus macroeconomics. This paper presents the critical approaches and elaborates the arguments that oppose those of the New Consensus Macroeconomics regarding the conduct of fiscal policy. Those criticisms and arguments are based in the post-Keynesian thought and the theory of Functional Finance. The theory of Functional Finance is an extension of the Keynesian approach, particularly with regard to discussions on public finances. As supports the theory of Functional Finance, the objectives to be pursued by fiscal policy should suggest the improvement of social welfare as a whole, i.e., the performance of inflation, employment and output should be taken into account by policymakers.

Keynes e o conceito de capital: reflexões epistemológicas a respeito das premissas sraffianas da teoria geral

Keynes and the concept of capital: some epistemological observations in regard to the Sraffian premises of the General Theory. This article aims to examine the conception of the nature of capital used by Keynes in the General Theory, to show to what extent this concept is similar to Sraffa's conception, and to highlight the implications related to this concept, in terms of structural instability. So I will study the mechanisms that explain the investment decision in an environment with strong uncertainty, the modalities of aggregation of different generations of capital and the instability of equilibrium. The convergence between the keynesian and the Sraffian approaches comes from this common conception of capital. Finally, i will examine the implications in regard to the structure of the aggregate models.

As primeiras impressões de Hicks sobre a Teoria Geral

In this article, we present an interpretation of the Hicks' first review of Keynes's General Theory. First we analyze the influence of Hayek's theory on the work of Hicks. We show how Hicks, reflecting on the Austrian theory of the business cycle, created the concepts of "week" and temporary equilibrium. Then we discuss how the author reformulated these concepts of time and equilibrium to interpret the General Theory.

Inteligência artificial e teoria de resolução de problemas

Este artigo é uma tentativa de delinear as principais características da pesquisa numa nova área de estudos a chamada Inteligência Artificial (AI). Os itens 1 e 2 constituem um rápido histórico da AI e seus pressupostos básicos. O item 3 trata da teoria de resolução de problemas, desenvolvida por A. Newell e H. Simon. O item 4 procura mostrar a relevância da AI para a Filosofia, em especial para a filosofia da Mente e para a Teoria do Conhecimento.

O conceito de racionalidade em Habermas: a 'guinada lingüística' da teoria crítica

Este ensaio originalmente foi uma comunicação apresentada na UNICAMP. Foi escrito a propósito da visita de Habermas ao Brasil, esperada para o segundo semestre do ano passado. Seu objetivo imediato era fornecer algumas informações sobre as reflexões habermasianas mais recentes. Para isto, tentou-se inserir historicamente a proposta habermasiana de uma "razão comunicativa" no atual contexto de generalizada irrupção de formas discursivas fragmentárias relativistas e irracionalistas (o "pós-estruturalismo" francês e o "pensiero debole" italiano são os exemplos estudados). Sem pretender esgotar um tema tão complexo, tentou-se também levantar algumas questões sobre as possibilidades crítico-cognoscitivas da "guinada linguística" da filosofia de Habermas e de Apel.