7000-year human legacy of elevation-dependent European fire regimes

Variability in fire regime at the continental scale has primarily been attributed to climate change, often overshadowing the widely potential impact of human activities. However, human ignition modifies the rhythm of fire episodes occurrence (fire frequency), whereas land use alters vegetation composition and fuel load, and thus the amount of biomass burned. It is unclear, however, whether and how humans have exercised a significant influence over fire regimes at continental and millennial scales. Based on sedimentary charcoal records, we use new alternative estimate of fire frequency and biomass burned for the last 16000 years (here after 16 ky) that we evaluate with outputs from climate, vegetation, land use and population models. We find that pronounced regional-scale land use changes in southern Europe at the beginning of the Neolithic (8–6 ky), during the Bronze Age (5–4 ky) and the medieval period (1 ky) caused a doubling of fire frequency compared to the Holocene average (the last 11.5 ky). Despite anthropogenic influences, southern European biomass burned decreased from 7 ky, which is in line both with changes in orbital parameters leading climate cooling and also reductions in biomass availability because of land use. Our study underscores the role of elevation-dependent parameters, and particularly biomass and land management, as major drivers of fire regime variability. Results attest a determinant anthropogenic driving-force on fire regime and a decrease in fire-carbon emissions since 7 ky in Southern Europe.

Special Tax Treatment as Trade Policy: A Database on Export Processing and Special Economic Zones

Many countries treat income generated via exports favourably, especially when production takes places in special zones known as export processing zones (EPZs). EPZs can be defined as specific, geographically defined zones or areas that are subject to special administration and that generally offer tax incentives, such as duty‐free imports when producing for export, exemption from other regulatory constraints linked to import for the domestic market, sometimes favourable treatment in terms of industrial regulation, and the streamlining of border clearing procedures. We describe a database of WTO Members that employ special economic zones as part of their industrial policy mix. This is based on WTO notification and monitoring through the WTO’s trade policy review mechanism (TPRM), supplemented with information from the ILO, World Bank, and primary sources. We also provide some rough analysis of the relationship between use of EPZs and the carbon intensity of exports, and relative levels of investment across countries with and without special zones.

Impacts of Technology Adoption: Comparing Returns to the Farming Sector in Maine under Alternative Technology Regimes

This thesis tests if certain technology choices are associated with a reduction in the proportion of farming activities in the agro-food system in Maine. Goodman, Sorj, and Wilkinson define appropriationism as the replacement of farming sector activities by industrial inputs. Based on the concept of appropriationism, industrial fanning systems using large amounts of synthetic inputs contribute less to fanning than more agrarian systems, like organic fanning. Thus, returns to the farming sector should be greater for organic compared with conventional potato fanning in Maine since organic farming uses fewer industrial inputs. Goodman et. al. define substitutionism as the displacement of farming sector commodities and activities by industrial processes in the marketing sector. Based on the concept of substitutionism, returns to the farming sector should be greater for Lay's Classic®™ potato chips made from natural potatoes compared with Baked Lay's®™ potato crisps manufactured from processed dehydrated potatoes. Returns to the farming sector are defined as returns to the farmer or farm family from farming activities, returns to farm labor, and returns to farmers and farm labor producing inputs used on the farm. Results show absolute returns to the farming sector are less for organic compared to conventional tablestock potato farms in Maine. However as a proportion of farm revenues, large organic farms that market at least 25% of their produce to retail stores or directly to consumers do as well as conventional farms. When comparing returns as a proportion of consumer expenditures, these organic farms do better than conventional farms. Returns to the farming sector are less for organic because of yield penalties, cost of marketing services, and diseconomies of size for organic tablestock potato farms. Expanding acreage and reintegrating livestock with cropping systems may increase returns to the fanning sector. Organic farming demonstrates difficulties in providing marketing services at the farm level. Providing marketing services limits the ability to expand production to capture economies of size. Maine organic potato farmers emphasize non-monetary values such as supporting sustainable agriculture, self-sufficiency, the intrinsic value of work, and close community and family connections. Returns to the farming sector as a proportion of consumer expenditures are about three times greater for Lay's Classic®™ potato chips than for Baked Lay's®™ potato crisps, since the value that farmers receive for potatoes used to produce dehydrated potato flakes in one pound of crisps is about half of the value that farmers receive for potatoes used to make one pound of chips. However, this assumes farmers assign a cost to producing low-grade potatoes for dehydration proportionate to their value. Premium potatoes are used to produce potato chips. Low-grade potatoes are used to produce the dehydrated potato flakes used to make potato crisps. Returns to the farming sector are slightly greater for potato crisps if no costs are allocated to producing low-grade potatoes for dehydration. A shift in consumer preferences from potato chips to crisps may result in a geographical shift of potato production from Maine to the Pacific Northwest assuming no food-grade dehydration facilities are built in Maine.

The Optimal Capital Structure of Banks: Balancing Deposit Insurance, Capital Requirements and Tax-Advantaged Debt

The capital structure and regulation of financial intermediaries is an important topic for practitioners, regulators and academic researchers. In general, theory predicts that firms choose their capital structures by balancing the benefits of debt (e.g., tax and agency benefits) against its costs (e.g., bankruptcy costs). However, when traditional corporate finance models have been applied to insured financial institutions, the results have generally predicted corner solutions (all equity or all debt) to the capital structure problem. This paper studies the impact and interaction of deposit insurance, capital requirements and tax benefits on a bankÇs choice of optimal capital structure. Using a contingent claims model to value the firm and its associated claims, we find that there exists an interior optimal capital ratio in the presence of deposit insurance, taxes and a minimum fixed capital standard. Banks voluntarily choose to maintain capital in excess of the minimum required in order to balance the risks of insolvency (especially the loss of future tax benefits) against the benefits of additional debt. Because we derive a closed- form solution, our model provides useful insights on several current policy debates including revisions to the regulatory framework for GSEs, tax policy in general and the tax exemption for credit unions.

Asymmetric Information, Tax Evasion and Alternative Instruments of Government Revenue

Using a pure-exchange overlapping generations model, characterized with tax evasion and information asymmetry between the government (the social planner) and the financial intermediaries, we try and seek for the optimal tax and seigniorage plans, derived from the welfare maximizing objective of the social planner. We show that irrespective of whether the economy is characterized by tax evasion, or asymmetric information, a benevolent social planner, maximizing welfare and simultaneously financing the budget constraint, should optimally rely on explicit rather than implicit taxation.

The Relationship between Large Fiscal Adjustments and Short-Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes

A small, but growing, body of literature searches for evidence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short-run economic activity. Our paper continues this research effort by systematically examining the effects, if any, of unusual fiscal events - either non-Keynesian results within a Keynesian model or Keynesian results within a neoclassical model -- on short-run economic activity. We examine this issue within three separate models -- a St. Louis equation, a Hall-type consumption equation, and a growth accounting equation. Our empirical findings are mixed, and do not provide strong systematic support for the view that unusually large fiscal contractions/expansions reverse the effects of normal fiscal events. Moreover, we find only limited evidence that trigger points are empirically important.

Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature -- flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's foreign currency leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible regimes.

Ottoman Tax Registers (Tahrir Defterleri)

The Ottoman government obtained current information on the empire's sources of revenue through periodic registers called tahrir defterleri. These documents include detailed information on tax-paying subjects and taxable resources, making it possible to study the economic and social history of the Middle East and Eastern Europe in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Although the use of these documents have been typically limited to the construction of local histories, adopting a more optimistic attitude toward their potential and using appropriate sampling procedures can greatly increase their contribution to historical scholarship. They can be used in comprehensive quantitative studies and in addressing questions of broader historical significance or larger social scientific relevance.

Endogenous Growth in the Presence of Informal Credit Markets: A Comparative Analysis Between Credit Rationing and Self-Revelation Regimes

This paper examines whether the presence of informal credit markets reduces the cost of credit rationing in terms of growth. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework, we assume that firms are heterogenous with different degrees of risk and households invest in human capital development. With the help of Indian household level data we show that the informal market reduces the cost of rationing by increasing the growth rate by 0.7 percent. This higher growth rate, in the presence of an informal sector, is due to the ability of the informal market to separate the high risk from the low risk firms thanks to better information. But even after such improvement we do not get the optimum outcome. The findings, based on our second question, suggest that the revelation of firms' type, based on incentive compatible pricing, can lead to almost 2 percent higher growth rate as compared to the credit rationing regime with informal sector.