Geographic Range Shifts under Climate Warming

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Microstrip antenna array for multiband dedicated short range communications systems

Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) is the key enabling technology for the present and future vehicular communication for various applications, such as safety improvement and traffic jam mitigation. This paper describes the development of a microstrip antenna array for the roadside equipment of a DSRC system, whose characteristics are according with the vehicular communications standards. The proposed antenna, with circular polarization, has a wide bandwidth, enough to cover the current European DSRC 5.8 GHz band and the future 5.9 GHz band for next generation DSRC communications. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53: 2794-2796, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.26394

Multi-apprentice learning for meta-heuristics parameter tuning in a multi agent scheduling system

The scheduling problem is considered in complexity theory as a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. Meta-heuristics proved to be very useful in the resolution of this class of problems. However, these techniques require parameter tuning which is a very hard task to perform. A Case-based Reasoning module is proposed in order to solve the parameter tuning problem in a Multi-Agent Scheduling System. A computational study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed CBR module performance.

Optimal tuning of fractional controllers using genetic algorithms

This study addresses the optimization of fractional algorithms for the discrete-time control of linear and non-linear systems. The paper starts by analyzing the fundamentals of fractional control systems and genetic algorithms. In a second phase the paper evaluates the problem in an optimization perspective. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the evolutionary strategy and the adaptability to distinct types of systems.

Automated design of microwave discrete tuning differential capacitance circuits in Si-integrated technologies

A genetic algorithm used to design radio-frequency binary-weighted differential switched capacitor arrays (RFDSCAs) is presented in this article. The algorithm provides a set of circuits all having the same maximum performance. This article also describes the design, implementation, and measurements results of a 0.25 lm BiCMOS 3-bit RFDSCA. The experimental results show that the circuit presents the expected performance up to 40 GHz. The similarity between the evolutionary solutions, circuit simulations, and measured results indicates that the genetic synthesis method is a very useful tool for designing optimum performance RFDSCAs.

Automated synthesis procedure of RF discrete tuning differential capacitance circuits

The paper presents a RFDSCA automated synthesis procedure. This algorithm determines several RFDSCA circuits from the top-level system specifications all with the same maximum performance. The genetic synthesis tool optimizes a fitness function proportional to the RFDSCA quality factor and uses the epsiv-concept and maximin sorting scheme to achieve a set of solutions well distributed along a non-dominated front. To confirm the results of the algorithm, three RFDSCAs were simulated in SpectreRF and one of them was implemented and tested. The design used a 0.25 mum BiCMOS process. All the results (synthesized, simulated and measured) are very close, which indicate that the genetic synthesis method is a very useful tool to design optimum performance RFDSCAs.

Optimal fuzzy PID control tuned with genetic algorithms

Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) are intelligent systems, based on heuristic knowledge, that have been largely applied in numerous areas of everyday life. They can be used to describe a linear or nonlinear system and are suitable when a real system is not known or too difficult to find their model. FLC provide a formal methodology for representing, manipulating and implementing a human heuristic knowledge on how to control a system. These controllers can be seen as artificial decision makers that operate in a closed-loop system, in real time. The main aim of this work was to develop a single optimal fuzzy controller, easily adaptable to a wide range of systems – simple to complex, linear to nonlinear – and able to control all these systems. Due to their efficiency in searching and finding optimal solution for high complexity problems, GAs were used to perform the FLC tuning by finding the best parameters to obtain the best responses. The work was performed using the MATLAB/SIMULINK software. This is a very useful tool that provides an easy way to test and analyse the FLC, the PID and the GAs in the same environment. Therefore, it was proposed a Fuzzy PID controller (FL-PID) type namely, the Fuzzy PD+I. For that, the controller was compared with the classical PID controller tuned with, the heuristic Ziegler-Nichols tuning method, the optimal Zhuang-Atherton tuning method and the GA method itself. The IAE, ISE, ITAE and ITSE criteria, used as the GA fitness functions, were applied to compare the controllers performance used in this work. Overall, and for most systems, the FL-PID results tuned with GAs were very satisfactory. Moreover, in some cases the results were substantially better than for the other PID controllers. The best system responses were obtained with the IAE and ITAE criteria used to tune the FL-PID and PID controllers.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Fast Geodesic Active Fields for Image Registration Based on Splitting and Augmented Lagrangian Approaches.

In this paper, we present an efficient numerical scheme for the recently introduced geodesic active fields (GAF) framework for geometric image registration. This framework considers the registration task as a weighted minimal surface problem. Hence, the data-term and the regularization-term are combined through multiplication in a single, parametrization invariant and geometric cost functional. The multiplicative coupling provides an intrinsic, spatially varying and data-dependent tuning of the regularization strength, and the parametrization invariance allows working with images of nonflat geometry, generally defined on any smoothly parametrizable manifold. The resulting energy-minimizing flow, however, has poor numerical properties. Here, we provide an efficient numerical scheme that uses a splitting approach; data and regularity terms are optimized over two distinct deformation fields that are constrained to be equal via an augmented Lagrangian approach. Our approach is more flexible than standard Gaussian regularization, since one can interpolate freely between isotropic Gaussian and anisotropic TV-like smoothing. In this paper, we compare the geodesic active fields method with the popular Demons method and three more recent state-of-the-art algorithms: NL-optical flow, MRF image registration, and landmark-enhanced large displacement optical flow. Thus, we can show the advantages of the proposed FastGAF method. It compares favorably against Demons, both in terms of registration speed and quality. Over the range of example applications, it also consistently produces results not far from more dedicated state-of-the-art methods, illustrating the flexibility of the proposed framework.

Most and Least Preferred Colours Differ According to Object Context : New Insights from an Unrestricted Colour Range

Humans like some colours and dislike others, but which particular colours and why remains to be understood. Empirical studies on colour preferences generally targeted most preferred colours, but rarely least preferred (disliked) colours. In addition, findings are often based on general colour preferences leaving open the question whether results generalise to specific objects. Here, 88 participants selected the colours they preferred most and least for three context conditions (general, interior walls, t-shirt) using a high-precision colour picker. Participants also indicated whether they associated their colour choice to a valenced object or concept. The chosen colours varied widely between individuals and contexts and so did the reasons for their choices. Consistent patterns also emerged, as most preferred colours in general were more chromatic, while for walls they were lighter and for t-shirts they were darker and less chromatic compared to least preferred colours. This meant that general colour preferences could not explain object specific colour preferences. Measures of the selection process further revealed that, compared to most preferred colours, least preferred colours were chosen more quickly and were less often linked to valenced objects or concepts. The high intra- and inter-individual variability in this and previous reports furthers our understanding that colour preferences are determined by subjective experiences and that most and least preferred colours are not processed equally.

Attractive silences in cricket courtship song : mate choice using a short-range signal /

Matings systems using signals for sexual communication have been studied extensively and results commonly suggest that females use these signals for locating males, species-identification, and mate choice. Although numerous mating systems employ multiple signals, research has generally focused on long-range signals perhaps due to their prominence and ease of study. This study focused on the short-range acoustic courtship song of crickets. The results presented here suggest this signal is under selection by female choice. Females mated preferentially with males having shorter silences between the two types of ticks within the song. The length of these silences (Gap 1) was correlated with male condition such that males having long silences were significantly lower in mass with respect to body size when compared to males having short silences. Both Gap 1 length and male condition were significantly repeatable within males over time suggesting the possibility these traits have a genetic basis. This study is the first empirical study to test female preferences within the natural variation of the courtship song. It now appears, at least in crickets, that both the longand short-range signals of a multi-signal mating system may contribute to male mating success.

Behaviour and life history of a large carpenter bee (Xylocopa virginica) in the northern extent of its range

Large carpenter bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Xylocopa) have traditionally been thought of as exhibiting solitary or occasionally communal colony social organization. However, studies have demonstrated more complex fonns of social behaviour in this genus. In this document, I examine elements ofbehaviour and life history in a North American species at the northern extreme of its range. Xylocopa virginica was found to be socially polymorphic with both solitary and meta-social or semi-social nests in the same population. In social nests, there is no apparent benefit from additional females which do not perfonn significant work or guarding. I found that the timing of life-history events varies between years, yet foraging effort only differed in the coldest and wettest year of2004 the study. Finally, I that male X virginica exhibit female defence polygyny, with resident and satellite males. Resident males maintain their territories through greater aggression relative to satellites.