Alternative antecedents, probabilities, and the suppression of fallacies in Wason's selection task

Three experiments examined the influence of a second rule on the pattern of card selections on Wason's selection task. In Experiment 1 participants received a version of the task with a single test rule or one of two versions of the task with the same original test rule together with a second rule. The probability of q was manipulated in the two-rules conditions by varying the size of the antecedent set in the second rule. The results showed a significant suppression of q card and not-p card selections in the alternative-rule conditions, but no difference as a function of antecedent set size. In Experiment 2 the size of the antecendent set in the two-rules conditions was manipulated using the context of a computer printing double-sided cards. The results showed a significant reduction of q card selections in the two-rules conditions, but no effect of p set size. In Experiment 3 the scenario accompanying the rule was manipulated, and it specified a single alternative antecedent or a number of alternative antecedents. The q card selection rates were not affected by the scenario manipulation but again were suppressed by the presence of a second rule. Our results suggest that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the task and that these inferences are systematically influenced by the presence of a second rule, but are not influenced by the probabilistic characteristics of this rule. These findings are discussed in the context of decision theoretic views of selection task performance (Oaksford Chater, 1994).

Sources of Software Requirements Change from the Perspectives of Development and Maintenance

Changes to software requirements occur during initial development and subsequent to delivery, posing a risk to cost and quality while at the same time providing an opportunity to add value. Provision of a generic change source taxonomy will support requirements change risk visibility, and also facilitate richer recording of both pre- and post-delivery change data. In this paper we present a collaborative study to investigate and classify sources of requirements change, drawing comparison between those pertaining to software development and maintenance. We begin by combining evolution, maintenance and software lifecycle research to derive a definition of software maintenance, which provides the foundation for empirical context and comparison. Previously published change ‘causes’ pertaining to development are elicited from the literature, consolidated using expert knowledge and classified using card sorting. A second study incorporating causes of requirements change during software maintenance results in a taxonomy which accounts for the entire evolutionary progress of applications software. We conclude that the distinction between the terms maintenance and development is imprecise, and that changes to requirements in both scenarios arise due to a combination of factors contributing to requirements uncertainty and events that trigger change. The change trigger taxonomy constructs were initially validated using a small set of requirements change data, and deemed sufficient and practical as a means to collect common requirements change statistics across multiple projects.

The Creative Life of Law: Improvisation, Between Tradition and Suspicion

Originally applying solely to chefs, waiters, dishwashers and the like, New York City (NYC) regulations governing cabaret employees were altered in 1943 to include musicians and entertainers, who until the late 1960’s would be required to hold a NYC Cabaret Employee’s Identification Card. The introduction of these notorious “police cards” occurred roughly contemporaneously to the emergence in after-hours night clubs in Harlem of a new and supposedly “wild”, improvisatory brand of jazz: bebop. This article adds to the many rather practical theories on why these cards were introduced a more abstract discussion coined in terms of the relationship between suspicion and tradition and focusing on differing essences of law and improvisatory jazz. While law breathes tradition and is suspicious of improvisation and unpredictability, the converse is true of jazz. Allusion to tradition in jazz improvisation is often viewed as a betrayal of its creative and spontaneous nature. And yet it is only through its departure from the stable transmission of past meaning that improvisation gains meaning. Law, in contrast, while appearing to be entirely composed of tradition, to transmit some sort of determinate and fixed meaning, is constantly betraying itself. As no two legal actions can be exactly the same, judges must improvise on tradition and past precedent every time they are asked to decide a case. Law can thus neither dispense with nor be completely determined by tradition. The legal decision instead lies on the border between what it “is” and what it otherwise could be and every judicial act is, in some sense, a species of improvisation. This article uses the cabaret cards to explore this uncertain terrain between law and improvisation, between tradition and suspicion.

The electrochemical reduction of the purines guanine and adenine at platinum electrodes in several room temperature ionic liquids

The reduction of guanine was studied by microelectrode voltammetry in the room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) N-hexyltriethylammonium his (trifluoromethanesulfonyl) imide [N-6.2.2.2][N(Tf)(2)], 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorosphosphate [C(4)mim] [PF6], N-butyl-N-methyl-pyrrolidinium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide [C(4)mpyrr][N(Tf)(2)], 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide [C-4mim][N(TF)(2)], N-butyl-N-methyl-pyrrolidinium dicyanamide [C(4)mpyrr][N(NC)(2)] and tris(P-hexyl)-tetradecylphosphonium trifluorotris(pentafluoroethyl)phosphate [P-14,P-6,(6,6)][FAP] on a platinum microelectrode. In [N-6,N-2,N-2,N-2][NTf2] and [P-14,P-6,P-6.6][FAP], but not in the other ionic liquids studied, guanine reduction involves a one-electron, diffusion-controlled process at very negative potential to produce an unstable radical anion. which is thought to undergo a dimerization reaction, probably after proton abstraction from the cation of the ionic liquid. The rate of this subsequent reaction depends on the nature of the ionic liquid, and it is faster in the ionic liquid [P-14,P-6,P-6.6[FAP], in which the formation of the resulting dimer can be voltammetrically monitored at less negative potentials than required for the reduction of the parent molecule. Adenine showed similar behaviour to guanine but the pyrimidines thymine and cytosine did not; thymine was not reduced at potentials less negative than required for solvent (RTIL) decomposition while only a poorly defined wave was seen for cytosine. The possibility for proton abstraction from the cation in [N-6,N-2,N-2,N-2],[NTF2] and [P-14,P-6,P-6.6][FAP] is noted and this is thought to aid the electrochemical dimerization process. The resulting rapid reaction is thought to shift the reduction potentials for guanine and adenine to lower values than observed in RTILs where the scope for proton abstraction is not present. Such shifts are characteristic of so-called EC processes where reversible electron transfer is followed by a chemical reaction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuous flow hydroformylation using supported ionic liquid phase catalysts with carbon dioxide as a carrier.

A supported ionic liquid phase (SILP) catalyst prepared from [PrMIM][Ph2P(3-C6H4SO3)] (PrMIM = 1-propyl-3-methylimidazolium), [Rh(CO)(2)(acac)] (acacH = 2,4-pentanedione) [OctMIM]NTf2 (OctMIM = 1-n-octyl-3-methylimidazolium, Tf = CF3SO2) and microporous silica has been used for the continuous flow hydroformylation of 1-octene in the presence of compressed CO2. Statistical experimental design was used to show that the reaction rate is neither much affected by the film thickness (IL loading) nor by the syngas: substrate ratio. However, a factor-dependent interaction between the syngas: substrate ratio and film thickness on the reaction rate was revealed. Increasing the substrate flow led to increased reaction rates but lower overall yields. One of the most important parameters proved to be the phase behaviour of the mobile phase, which was studied by varying the reaction pressure. At low CO2 pressures or when N-2 was used instead of CO2 rates were low because of poor gas diffusion to the catalytic sites in the SILP. Furthermore, leaching of IL and Rh was high because the substrate is liquid and the IL had been designed to dissolve in it. As the CO2 pressure was increased, the reaction rate increased and the IL and Rh leaching were reduced, because an expanded liquid phase developed. Due to its lower viscosity the expanded liquid allows better transport of gases to the catalyst and is a poorer solvent for the IL and the catalyst because of its reduced polarity. Above 100 bar (close to the transition to a single phase at 106 bar), the rate of reaction dropped again with increasing pressure because the flowing phase becomes a better and better solvent for the alkene, reducing its partitioning into the IL film. Under optimised conditions, the catalyst was shown to be stable over at least 40 h of continuous catalysis with a steady state turnover frequency (TOF, mol product (mol Rh)(-1)) of 500 h(-1) at low Rh leaching (0.2 ppm). The selectivity of the catalyst was not much affected by the variation of process parameters. The linear: branched (1:b) ratios were ca. 3, similar to that obtained using the very same catalyst in conventional organic solvents.

Living arrangements, relationship to people in the household and admission to care homes for older people

Objective: to assess the separate contributions of marital status, living arrangements and the presence of children to subsequent admission to a care home.

Design and methods: a longitudinal study derived from the health card registration system and linked to the 2001 Census, comprising 28% of the Northern Ireland population was analysed using Cox regression to assess the likelihood of admission for 51,619 older people in the 6 years following the census. Cohort members’ age, sex, marital and health status and relationship to other household members were analysed.

Results: there were 2,138 care home admissions; a rate of 7.4 admissions per thousand person years. Those living alone had the highest likelihood of admission [hazard ratio (HR) compared with living with partner 1.66 (95% CI 1.48, 1.87)] but there was little difference between the never-married and the previously married. Living with children offered similar protection as living with a partner (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.81, 1.16). The presence of children reduced admissions especially for married couples (HR 0.67 95% CI 0.54, 0.83; models adjusting for age, gender and health). Women were more likely to be admitted, though there were no gender differences for people living alone or those co-habiting with siblings.

Implications: presence of potential caregivers within the home, rather than those living elsewhere, is a major factor determining admission to care home. Further research should concentrate on the health and needs of these co-residents.

Profiling of the BRCA1 transcriptome through microarray and ChIP-chip analysis

A role for BRCA1 in the direct and indirect regulation of transcription is well established. However, a comprehensive view of the degree to which BRCA1 impacts transcriptional regulation on a genome-wide level has not been defined. We performed genome-wide expression profiling and ChIP-chip analysis, comparison of which revealed that although BRCA1 depletion results in transcriptional changes in 1294 genes, only 44 of these are promoter bound by BRCA1. However, 27 of these transcripts were linked to transcriptional regulation possibly explaining the large number of indirect transcriptional changes observed by microarray analysis. We show that no specific consensus sequence exists for BRCA1 DNA binding but rather demonstrate the presence of a number of known and novel transcription factor (TF)- binding sites commonly found on BRCA1 bound promoters. Co-immunoprecipitations confirmed that BRCA1 interacts with a number of these TFs including AP2-a, PAX2 and ZF5. Finally, we show that BRCA1 is bound to a subset of promoters of genes that are not altered by BRCA1 loss, but are transcriptionally regulated in a BRCA1-dependent manner upon DNA damage. These data suggest a model, whereby BRCA1 is present on defined promoters as part of an inactive complex poised to respond to various genotoxic stimuli. © The Author(s) 2011. Published by Oxford University Press.

Dispersion interactions in room-temperature ionic liquids: Results from a non-empirical density functional

The role of dispersion or van de Waals (VDW) interactions in imidazolium-based room-temperature ionic liquids is studied within the framework of density functional theory, using a recently developed non-empirical functional [M. Dion, H. Rydberg, E. Schroder, D. C. Langreth, and B. I. Lundqvist, Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 246401 (2004)], as efficiently implemented in the SIESTA code [G. Roman-Perez and J. M. Soler, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 096102 (2009)]. We present results for the equilibrium structure and lattice parameters of several crystalline phases, finding a general improvement with respect to both the local density (LDA) and the generalized gradient approximations (GGA). Similar to other systems characterized by VDW bonding, such as rare gas and benzene dimers as well as solid argon, equilibrium distances and volumes are consistently overestimated by approximate to 7%, compared to -11% within LDA and 11% within GGA. The intramolecular geometries are retained, while the intermolecular distances and orientations are significantly improved relative to LDA and GGA. The quality is superior to that achieved with tailor-made empirical VDW corrections ad hoc [M. G. Del Popolo, C. Pinilla, and P. Ballone, J. Chem. Phys. 126, 144705 (2007)]. We also analyse the performance of an optimized version of this non-empirical functional, where the screening properties of the exchange have been tuned to reproduce high-level quantum chemical calculations [J. Klimes, D. Bowler, and A. Michaelides, J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 22, 074203 (2010)]. The results for solids are even better with volumes and geometries reproduced within 2% of experimental data. We provide some insight into the issue of polymorphism of [bmim][Cl] crystals, and we present results for the geometry and energetics of [bmim][Tf] and [mmim][Cl] neutral and charged clusters, which validate the use of empirical force fields. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3652897]

High-pressure volumetric properties of imidazolium-based ionic liquids: Effect of the anion

The densities of five imidazolium-based ionic liquids (ILs) (1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate, [CiC4-Im][BF 4]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorophosphate, [CiC 4Im][PF6]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide, [C1C4Im][Tf 2N]; 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazoliumbis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}-imide, [C1C2Im][Tf2N]; l-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium ethylsulfate, [C1C2Im][EtSO4]) were measured as a function of temperature from (293 to 415) K and over an extended pressure range from (0.1 to 40) MPa using a vibratingtube densimeter. Knowledge of the variation of the density with temperature and pressure allows access to the mechanical coefficients: thermal expansion coefficient and isothermal compressibility. The effects of the anion and of the length of the alkyl chain on the imidazolium ring on the volumetric properties were particularly examined. The mechanical coefficients were compared with those of common organic solvents, water and liquid NaCl. Finally, a prediction model, based on an "ideal" volumetric behavior of the ILs, is proposed to allow calculation of the molar volume of imidazolium-based ionic liquids as a function of temperature. ©2007 American Chemical Society.

Efficacy, safety and effect on biomarkers of AZD9668 in cystic fibrosis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and effect on clinical outcomes and biomarkers of inflammation and tissue damage of the neutrophil elastase inhibitor AZD9668 (60 mg twice daily orally for 4 weeks) in cystic fibrosis. This was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Primary outcome measures were sputum neutrophil count, lung function, 24-h sputum weight, BronkoTest® diary card data and health-related quality-of-life (revised cystic fibrosis quality-of-life questionnaire). Secondary end-points included sputum neutrophil elastase activity, inflammatory biomarkers in sputum and blood, urine and plasma desmosine (an elastin degradation marker), AZD9668 levels and safety parameters (adverse events, routine haematology, biochemistry, electrocardiogram and sputum bacteriology). 56 patients were randomised, of which 27 received AZD9668. There was no effect for AZD9668 on sputum neutrophil counts, neutrophil elastase activity, lung function or clinical outcomes, including quality of life. In the AZD9668 group, there was a trend towards reduction in sputum inflammatory biomarkers with statistically significant changes in interleukin-6, RANTES and urinary desmosine. The pattern of adverse events was similar between groups. Consistent reductions in sputum inflammatory biomarkers were seen in the AZD9668 group, and reduction in urinary desmosine suggests that AZD9668 impacts elastin cleavage by neutrophil elastase.

The role of ECE1 variants in cognitive ability in old age and Alzheimer's disease risk

The ß-amyloid peptide may play a central role in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis. We have evaluated variants in seven Aß-degrading genes (ACE, ECE1, ECE2, IDE, MME, PLAU, and TF) for association with AD risk in the Genetic and Environmental Risk in Alzheimer's Disease Consortium 1 (GERAD1) cohort, and with three cognitive phenotypes in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936), using 128 and 121 SNPs, respectively. In GERAD1, we identified a significant association between a four-SNP intragenic ECE1 haplotype and risk of AD in individuals that carried at least one APOE e4 allele (P = 0.00035, odds ratio = 1.61). In LBC1936, we identified a significant association between a different two-SNP ECE1 intragenic haplotype and non-verbal reasoning in individuals lacking the APOE e4 allele (P = 0.00036, ß = -0.19). Both results showed a trend towards significance after permutation (0.05 <P <0.10). A follow-up cognitive genetic study evaluated the association of ECE1 SNPs in three additional cohorts of non-demented older people. Meta-analysis of the four cohorts identified the significant association (Z <0.05) of SNPs in the ECE-1b promoter with non-verbal reasoning scores, particularly in individuals lacking the APOE e4 allele. Our genetic findings are not wholly consistent. Nonetheless, the AD associated intronic haplotype is linked to the 338A variant of known ECE1b promoter variant, 338C>A (rs213045). We observed significantly less expression from the 338A variant in two human neuroblastoma cell lines and speculate that this promoter may be subject to tissue-specific regulation.

Uptake and translocation of inorganic and methylated arsenic species by plants

The uptake and translocation into shoots of arsenate, methylarsonate (MA), and dimethylarsinate (DMA) by 46 different plant species were studied. The plants (n = 3 per As species) were exposed for 24 h to 1 mg of As per litre under identical conditions. Total arsenic was measured in the roots and the shoots by acid digestion and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry from which, besides total As values, root absorption factors and shoot-to-root transfer factors were calculated. As uptake into the root for the different plant species ranged from 1.2 to 95 (mu g of As per g of dry weight) for As-V, from 0.9 to 44 for MA(V) and from 0.8 to 13 for DMA(V), whereas in shoots the As concentration ranged from 0.10 to 17 for As-V, 0.1 to 13 for MA(V), and 0.2 to 17 for DMA(V). The mean root absorption factor for As-V (1.2 to 95%) was five times higher than for DMA(V) (0.8 to 13%) and 2.5 times higher than for MA(V) (0.9 to 44%). Although the uptake of arsenic in the form of As-V was significantly higher than that of MA(V) and DMA(V), the translocation of the methylated species was more efficient in most plant species studied. Thus, an exposure of plants to DMA(V) or MA(V) can result in higher arsenic concentrations in the shoots than when exposed to As-V. Shoot-to-root transfer factors (TFs) for all plants varied with plant and arsenic species. While As-V had a median TF of 0.09, the TF of DMA(V) was nearly a factor of 10 higher (0.81). The median TF for MA(V) was in between (0.30). Although the TF for MA(V) correlates well with the TF for DMA(V), the plants can be separated into two groups according to their TF of DMA(V) in relation to their TF of As-V. One group can immobilise DMA(V) in the roots, while the other group translocates DMA(V) very efficiently into the shoot. The reason for this is as yet unknown.

Exploring the use of physical activity loyalty cards for behaviour change in public health: randomised controlled trial

Abstract
Background Physical inactivity is a major public health concern, and more innovative approaches are urgently needed to address it. The UK Government supports the use of incentives and so-called nudges to encourage healthy behaviour changes, and has encouraged business sector involvement in public health through the Public Health Responsibility Deal. To test the effectiveness of provision of incentives to encourage adults to increase their physical activity, we
recruited 406 adults from a workplace setting (office-based) to take part in an assessor-blind randomised controlled trial.
Methods
We developed the physical activity loyalty card scheme, which integrates a novel physical activity tracking system with web-based monitoring (palcard). Participants were recruited from two buildings at Northern Ireland’s main
government offices and were randomly allocated (grouped by building [n=2] to reduce contamination) to either incentive group (n=199) or no incentive group (n=207). We included participants aged 16–65 years, based at the worksite 4 days or more per week and for 6 h or more per day, and able to complete 15 min of moderate-paced walking (self-report). Exclusion criteria included having received specific advice by a general practitioner not to exercise. A statistician not involved in administration of the trial prepared a computer-generated random allocation sequence. Random assignments were placed in individually numbered, sealed envelopes by the statistician to ensure concealment of allocation. Only the assessor was masked to assignment. Sensors were placed along footpaths and the gym in the workplace. Participants scanned their loyalty card at the sensor when undertaking physical activity (eg, walking), which logged activity. Participants in the incentive group monitored their physical activity, collected points, and received rewards (retail vouchers) for minutes of physical activity completed over the 12-week intervention. Rewards were vouchers sponsored by local retailers. Participants in the no incentive group used their loyalty card to self-monitor their physical activity but were not able to earn points or receive rewards. The primary outcome was change in minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity with the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire, measured at baseline, week 12, and 6 months. Activity was objectively measured with the tracking system over the 12-week intervention. Mann Whitney U tests were done to assess change between groups.
Findings
The mean age of participants was 43·32 years (SD 9·37), and 272 (67%) were women. We obtained follow-up data from 353 (87%) participants at week 12 and 341 (84%) at 6 months. At week 12, participants in the incentive group increased moderate to vigorous physical activity by a median of 60 min per week (IQR –10 to 120) compared with 30 min per week (–60 to 90) in the no incentive group (p=0·05). At 6 months, participants in the incentive group had
increased their moderate to vigorous physical activity by 30 min per week (–60 to 100) from baseline compared with 0 min per week (–115 to 1110) in the no incentive group (p=0·099). We noted no significant differences between groups
for use of loyalty card (p=0·18). Participants in the incentive group recorded a mean of 60·22 min (95% CI 50·90–69·55) of physical activity per week with their loyalty card on week 1 and 23·56 min (17·06–30·06) at week 12, which was similar to that for those in the no incentive group (59·74 min, 51·24–68·23, at week 1; 20·25 min, 14·45–26·06, at week 12; p=0·94 for differences between groups at week 1; p=0·45 for differences between groups at week 12).
Interpretation:
Financial incentives showed a short-term behaviour change in physical activity. This innovative study contributes to the necessary evidence base, and has important implications for physical activity promotion and business engagement in health. The optimum incentive-based approach needs to be established. Results should be interpreted with some caution as the analyses of secondary outcomes were not adjusted for multiple comparisons.

Economic Vulnerability and the Severity of Debt Problems::An Analysis of the Irish EU-SILC 2008

In this article, using Ireland where debt issues are of particular salience, as a test case, we seek to locate over-indebtedness and the severity of debt problems in the context of the broader economic circumstances of households. In doing so, we first identify an economically vulnerable segment of households and then explore the debt experience of vulnerable and non-vulnerable households. Our analysis reveals a striking contrast between the debt experiences of less than one in five households defined as economically vulnerable and all others. Financial exclusion, relating to access to a bank account and a credit card, was found to increase debt levels. However, such effects were modest. The impact of economic vulnerability seems to be largely a consequence of its relationship to a wide
range of socio-economic attributes and circumstances. The manner in which a potential debt crisis
unfolds will be shaped by the broader socio-economic structuring of life-chances. Any attempt to
respond to such problems by concentrating on financial exclusion or household behaviour or, indeed,
triggering factors without taking the wider social structuring of economic vulnerability is likely to be
both seriously misguided and largely ineffective.